3SOF

Hal:

I respectfully disagree with many that are taking shots at  BRVO's potential and recognize the things that you mention.

Advertising is being adressed.The co. that has done the packaging is also working on the advertising and they have pushed some very highly touted names.Redskins\USA Soccer League\NAS Car and Radio\Newspaper Ad's etc.. I do not know whatelse can be done. If you have suggestions even the co. accepts advice and from what I understand have used some. 

There are marketing deals that have been made and just today the co. made remarks about the upcoming roll-out and the advertising push that will be made.

Tonight I   went into a Shaws Supermarket in NH. and could not find the product and was made aware of  the fact that there were so many products to choose from it's mind boggling.

What shall help is CCE shall be putting the product in vending machines along with schools and Military Bases. That is very smart IMO.

I think the Co. is making the right moves and I disagree with what is or has been said by many people as to the issues prospects and their chances. We will see soon as to wether the CCE agreement is going to make a big mark in the marketplace and that the pps will appreciate.

AT the very worst I believe for those that got in after the CCE agreement was signed that it will be a breakeven issue so the risk is not great. The conversion has taken it's toll on those that have had faith in the issue including myself.

Most people today want rewards as fast as they put their $$ up and that's generally not the way the markets work ,especially for an issue like this.

I feel we will see the pps appreciate by the end of October ,if not i shall start to have my doubts because by then the word and the converts will be well out and the anticipation for the product hitting the marketplace will have settled in.

I say give it from Oct .25 to Nov. 15 for the period to see what to expect .Until then please try not to look into what the co. prospects will be doing long term without some examples I have asked others. It is to early right now,but the things that are being mentioned are being addressed is my point. The Convertors are the thing that is dragging this down and the people that don't have faith in the co. are weighng down those that do. It is not wrong to question the co. ,but I would have a fair amount of example as to why they are taking the negative posture torwards the cos. chances of success. Some are just plain ignorant bashers that have moronic or in a way evil motives as they do not like to see others have success. To those I ask to find a worthy cause like Lnadmine destruction in Iraq,Afghanistan or Bosnia so wome poor soul does not lose life or limb.

If they come close to meeting the projections they have clearly laid out what do you think the pps apprecition will be is a good questiion I have for those that are taking the opposite stance torwards the cos. chances. So what do you think? And don't you think it's a fair play as far as if they do not meet their intended projections to atleast have their shareholders at the moment atleast break even given the long term prospects of the co.? I certainly do.So at worst it's an even bet with only time being wasted here IMO.

They have the packaging,the advertising and will start to take out market share & competition in the coming year. Give it a month before you judge where it will be going I say.   

Anyway ,Those are just the things I have looked at and I believe I am corresct and am being cautious about the co. on their prospects for the future. 

At worst ,long term it's an even bet! It's a pretty good bet I feel and that is why I took it with the upside potential being great!

If CCE ,7--11 and all the Supermarket deals cannot bring this co. $$ then nothing can.

On the other extreme I have learned most things are never that clear in the market and people were talking without knowing the Convert action was to come. If they only knew,right! Those are some of the surprises that have plagued this cos. shareholders thus far ,but I think things are going to change quickly in our favor.

Just my thoughts! 

I'll drink to that - (slammer)
or mabe after that I need a drink (slammer II)   

C

Qoute from ABEX

I say give it from Oct .25 to Nov. 15 for the period to see what to expect .Until then please try not to look into what the co. prospects will be doing long term without some examples I have asked others. It is to early right now,but the things that are being mentioned are being addressed is my point.

I'll drink to that too!!!   

At the price now, I'm gonna buy as much as I can afford. I think this is way undervalued when you think of long term potential. Bollinger bands are tight, and it hit the bottom today. If I see green at open I'm gonna start buying more, while hoping the dumping is done. I think when it starts moving, It's gonna go big. I also thought the newsletter was impressive and informative. I would think it's at the bottom within a cent or so, but I've been wrong before. I just know it's going to be higher than what it is now, patience is the key here. Just hoping I can pick the right bottom to make the big buy....any ideas?

Some statistics: Marketmakers as of today.   
April 05:  28
June 05:  32
Sept 05:  51
Go to:
<www.otcbb.com> and plug in BRVO and follow to corp profile section which has a link to list of marketmakers. Look up Total MPID Count. This was done with guidance by jamiedryer at BRVO IR. Don.

My estimates of when, as APEX put it to see what to expect follow.
I went over the SEC filings and NR's for the year to date, for the following brief summary:
Quarterly Revenue Report Release dates:
Q1 3 mos ended March 31 was released on May 11 2005
Q2 3 mos ended June  30 was Aug 15, 2005
Q3  3 mos ended Sept 30 est. Nov 15
Q4 3 mos ended Dec 31 form 10KSB est March 22, 2006

Shipments to Shaws, Walgreens and Safeway started at Mid year (late May/June 2005).
The Schools Distribution Program, via Tabatchnick and to Sainsbury (the UK) was announced in July.
711 and a new group of  22 convenience store/petroleum chains distribution announced in August.
CCE will start to roll out in Oct.
I am not posting any 'new' news. But, this tells me that:
#1 we will not see any meaningful revenue growth from non-CCE sources until the Q3, unless Roy starts to announce monthly revenue numbers (which is unrealistic to expect).
Even then, I expect we will see limited growth in new non-CCE source revenues and dramatic growth in sales and marketing costs, and that will not be until mid Nov. 2005
#2: we will not see any meaningful  growth from CCE revenue sources until the Q4 -  which will not be seen until, in my estimate, mid March 2006.
In that sense, ABEX is right, from a non-fundamentals point of view, when he posts: Most people today want rewards as fast as they put their $$ up and that's generally not the way the markets work ,especially for an issue like this.
Consequently, anyone expecting to see tangible revenue growth is going to be waiting for some time. So, anyone buying in expectation of an early stock price rise, based on tangible news of revenue growth may be disappointed. This is how I see it, from the point of view of a value or fundamentals investor. The news is not going to be there, until 5 months out - unless:
- Roy announces revised revenue guidance for Q4 2005 and fiscal 2006 (and remember, 'guidance' is just that. It is an educated guess, not a tangible fact.) or,
- an analyst picks up on the stock, which is unlikely, as the stock price/market cap/and so on - these do not meet most analysts' criteria. jmho, Don.

It looks like from the MM #'s you posted that they are starting to line up their positions for the coming period.

Usually the Market players look forward instead of backwards of what is to come and that is why I thought the Oct.\Nov. period would start to see some action.

By that time there shall be more market awareness and this convert period should be over like I mentioned. It will also mark the time sideliners shall be anticipating the CCE rollout.

All we can do is wait for the time to past and the real action to begin. BRVO are doing the right things and I hope that Dave's pps target is correct.

I think that the cos. projection #'s and to become the #2 Milk player in 4yrs. will make this co. many Millionaires and Multi-Millionaires in the yrs. to come.

These are the types of plays that people wish to find their whole lives I think if the cos. projections are meet. If  they even come close to their goals this will still bring many people that get in now very happy.

Thanks for the MM #'s as it shows that there is a marked upswing in interest by the serious players.

Good luck to alll! I am staying in for the long term uptrend! 

I think that the cos. projection #'s and to become the #2 Milk player in 4yrs. will make this co. many Millionaires and Multi-Millionaires in the yrs. to come.These are the types of plays that people wish to find their whole lives
Sorry, APEX, I find your expectations to be way in excess of where the company is at right now, its own projections, its extremely illiquid financial situation and so on....
Of course, you are entitled to your opinion and it is welcome to read your point of view. But you will have to provide something better than rah-rah, to support your projections of enormous share price appreciation. If I assume an average long term position in this stock is 100,000 shares, I find it difficult to follow who you think will become a multi millionaire? E.G., a short term trader might hold 500,000 shares, but I doubt there are many here, who would commit that amount of capital to a risky, small cap, very junior stock, for a year or whatever it takes.  Let me assume, 500,000 shares at 60 cents is $300,000. These investors would have to hold the stocks through a 500% stock price increase, in order to make a profit in excess of 1mill. This is the kind of post I would expect to read at a 'chat' group. A newby reading your post would be quite misled. Would you mind, to post tangible sales expectations or earnings per share expectations which give you cause for such optimism? This is harsh, but alll meant as positive criticism. In that sense, Proff Hal is absolutely correct, if you must postulate, you must be prepared to debate your position. I look forward to debating your position; thanks for your post., Don.

Don:
   Sorry that I had taken up so much space to the reply so I decided to rewrite my reply.

The CEO speaking at a FLA. College Friday was said to remark that his price target for year 3 was $5-$7. Dave's own projection is $5 .

If by or between year 4-5 they are banging on the door to be the #1 Chocolate Milk drink in the nation then  it is not unreasonable to see the stock price might rocket to the $20-$30 range at some point. That  being the case for those holding 100Kshrs.+ shall be Millionaires.

I have not marked down the #'s given in the CC yet, but I know they are very high and even if they do not meet them ,if they come in somewhere between 80-90% then the cos. Worth will be more than most people get through $1+ issues was my point.
Yes, not many people get into issues that go from the .50-.60 mark that have numbers that have potential to go as high as this might in the yrs. to come.

The worst case scenario is that this is a break even stock meaning that the risk of losing $$ is slim to none if people have patience to hold 6mos. Out.

Even holding 50Kshrs and having it going to $7 would make Millionaires of people holding it until it hits the $20 level which it shall if they do in fact become the #2  Chocolate Milk drink and  banging on the door of #1 as the co. put it.

As for myself I hope to be able to use technicals to trade in & out of it to take advantage of the  swings the issue has on the way to $5-$7 which might bring my profit up immensely and I know there will be others that do the same making them allot more than if they were to just invest. Those are the traders that will make the most from the stock and become the Millionaires and Multimillionaires I alluded to. If it becomes another Snapple then it surely will make even those that hold 50Kshrs millionaires in the long term.

This is a ground floor co. that might become a major growth story for the next 10yrs. The way a few other cos.have like BOOM and others. There are cos. That if you had just invested $1K in and just let it grow would have made you a Millionaire over a number of yrs..Those are the cos. That people wish they could have been fortunate enough to have found.

I still maintain that this is a game of risk and I see this as very low risk long term and am still adding to my position. I think we are looking at getting on the ground floor to a great growth issue and I hope I am right. If I am wrong at worst we will be able to get out with no loss breaking even. If that the case the only thing we are out on is time.

Lastly IMO CCE has been looking for a Milk drink to add to their line and they will work to make BRVO meet their projections which in turn will boost the pps and make both cos. $$. They are in this to make $$ also. It's ludicrous to think any other way of their relationship. In the coming yrs. They will add more accounts and may add the likes of McDonalds ,Burger King or any number of fast food chains which shall add tremendous amount to the bottomline.

I will listen to the projections again and come up with what might be the pps #'s that relate this week. Last night or early this morning it would have been to late to do so.
I was thinking of the buyer that made an investment of buying 625Kshrs who could have been who knows or the others thst are taking hugh positions at the close over the last few weeks I have noticed ,if they hold for the $5+ level shall easily be a Multi Millionaire's.

JMO

Good morning 

I've applauded Prfsr Hal and starfire and I absolutely agree with their views on this message board.

I was reading your posts and felt encouraged by two things:

- Another one of you and his kid tasted the product and loved it ! This is the pure Peter Lynch approach, as you can read on his classic investment book «One up on Wall Street». If you like the product you probably should buy the stock (of course, that's when a product is being launched, the comparison with Krispy Cream or Coke now doesn't make any sense to me, you need to compare companies when they are at the same stage of development - Bravo is just starting, Krispy Cream and Coke are obviously very mature companies).

- I was reading the newsletter and I think that breakfast idea is awesome. Just a few minutes ago, I was here at the office and didn't ate breakfast. I went to the gas post and look for something to eat or drink, and there was nothing tasty and fast for breakfast. I bought some «Chipicao» and of course, liquid yogurt, since I never found anything like flavoured milk here in Portugal, or for that matter, in Southern Europe. So Bravo has a very innovative product, this breakfast thing is going to sell a lot, I have no doubt about that.

But, the hard numbers in terms of revenues and profits will only start coming at the end of 2005 and beginning of 2006. That's why the stock is still so cheap, investors need real facts to jump on board. Also, the company needs to make an effort to go to another exchange, but for that they probably have to have their share price above $1.

Technically we have a rectangular formation in the making. The downtrend seems to be over, but there's no uptrend yet. This looks like an accumulation phase. I don't know where's the bottom, but I think it isn't much far from here.

I will patiently hold BRVO for the long term, leaving 6.66% of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio in it.

hi,
thanks dave . i agree with you about the peter lynch comparison. here is my earlier post reiterated,
thanks maxi

hi,
sounds like a classic peter lynch move. (" one up on wall street")
if you take it home and the family is either eating, drinking , wearing it, using it  then he would look into it as a possible buy.
this book is a great fun read as well as " beating the street" same author.
happy trading
maxi

ABEX: I don't know if you'd seen a similar post on RB, but I was compelled to include here for others to digest.  It's just my personal analysis of what to expect in the near future.

If you listen carefully to Bravo's MDA cc, you will hear RGW talk about his plan to achieve 1% of CCE unit volume in 3 years, with 1/2 of that anticipated in 2 years.  For 2004, CCE sold 42 billion units; 1% would be 420 million units.  Now, if you do some DD on CCE, you will find that their plan is to grow unit volume by 1% per year.

Therefore, taking RGW guidance for 2006 together with his plan to achieve 0.5% and 1% of CCE unit volume in 2 and 3 years, respectively, will give an idea of what to expect for Bravo's revenues over the next 3 years.  At the very least, it will give a rough estimate.

For 2006 (Year 1), RGW offered guidance of $70MM to $100MM in total revenues.  Taking 5x sales (industry standard) and 233MM shares O/S (worst case), this gives a low end of $70MM x 5 / 233MM = $1.50 per share and a high end of $100MM x 5 / 233MM = $2.15 per share.

For 2007 (Year 2), RGW offered indirect guidance of 0.5% of CCE unit volume.  For 2004, CCE had 42 billion unit sales.  It plans to increase sales by 1% per year, which gives 2007 unit sales of 42 billion x 1.01 for 2005 x 1.01 for 2006 x 1.01 for 2007 = 43.3 billion unit sales. Now, 0.5% of 43.3 billion is 216MM units.  Assuming a CCE unit cost basis of $0.67, Bravo 2007 revenues might very well be 216MM units x $0.67 per unit = $145MM, which then gives $145MM x 5 / 233 = $3.11 per share.

For 2008 (Year 3), RGW offered indirect guidance of 1% of CCE unit volume.  Unit sales for CCE should be 43.3 billion x 1.01 for 2008 = 43.7 billion unit sales.  Now, 1% of 43.7 billion is 437MM units.  Again, assuming a CCE unit cost basis of $0.67, Bravo 2008 revenues might very well be 437MM units x $0.67 per unit = $293MM, which then gives $293MM x 5 / 233 = $6.29 per share.

To summarize share price expectations for Bravo:

2005 (Year 1) pps for 2006 expectations: $1.50 to $2.15 per share
2006 (Year 2) pps for 2007 expectations: $3.11 per share
2007 (Year 3) pps for 2008 expectations: $6.29 per share

It's quite interesting that RGW gives an estimate for a Year 3 pps of $5 to $7 – it seems just about right, considering the prospects for the future.

Nevertheless, however conservatively calculated, the fair market value for the pps can in no way supplant the true market value for the pps that is actually being traded. The true pps value will always be shaped by the dynamic forces at play in the open market - forces that push and pull on the pps on a daily basis (that is, the buying and selling pressures).

Been_Burned_Before

PROGRESSIVE GROCER: The Winners' Circle

http://www.bravobrands.com/media/img/090105_editors_pick.pdf

Been Burned!

Bravo to you for posting that. There are always unforseen forces that will dictate where the pps shall go and given the guidance, if they meet their expecttions and the market moves it then I'd bet those numbers are modest for a pps outlay.

I say that because sometimes the market will push the price to higher levels due to a number of factors.

If it becomes a fad play for one like Snapple was. If the PE ratio is under the market's or if the co. gets a contract that has the whole market move it on unrealistic expectations as was the case when the rumour was flying as to the CCE deal.

Either way I think that we will do ok and those that get in now will either be well rewarded or exit when it meets their expected pps.

As for myself the markets are all about Risk and Technicals are used or I use in order to minimize those risks. I feel the Risk to Reward on this stock are quite good.At the very worst it is a breakeven issue for those that might not be patient enough to wait. I hope for an improvement in the chart soon.It will be nice t seee the MA's crossover for one thing.

The CEO was a Broker I believe and he is basing those #'s on fundermentals. I cannot remember if I saw PE's involved there and weather the sectors PE was counted into that.Quite interestiing though! Thanks for saving me the work as I have a number of other issues that need my attention. 

I ,in my old age, have come to appreciate a 3% gain rather than a loss of any kind so I am grateful for whatever I get for a winnings. Let's hope the co. can meet their expectation and they are found by the marketplayers as a good investment long term first.

If the product is well recieved in it's first year I hope it brings in even bigger clients.  Even getting to the listed contracts they have lined up they are bound to get attention from their buyers which in turn might bring in big buying to drive the pps up.We'll know soon enough.

Thanks and good luck!

Great research beenburnedbefore, congratulations and good luck holding BRVO !

Nothing new happened yesterday on BRVO, I will continue holding the stock.