3SOF

Nice gains this morning.  Good call!

Here's more news update on Avian bird flu:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051006/ap_on_he_me/us_avian_flu;_ylt=Ah0JuKdkNWCP6.4LaA3j5iCs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3czJjNGZoBHNlYwM3NTE-

I'm in NVAX at 2.25..

Institutional money managers are buying!

Some highlights from the article LiveLife posted:

«Leavitt is traveling to Asia to shore up international cooperation should bird flu mutate to easily infect people.

To further that goal, more than 65 countries and international organizations were to participate in discussions Thursday at the State Department about preparations for the possibility of worsening bird flu.»

«As for treatment, HHS last month began spending $100 million for the first large-scale production of a bird flu vaccine. But the department has been criticized for only stockpiling enough of the anti-flu drug Tamiflu for several million people. The Senate last week passed legislation that would increase those purchases by $3 billion.»

There's no doubt there will be strong demand from around th world to any medicine that can prevent or cure the Bird Flu Virus. This will happen for sure, not if the Bird Flu really outbreaks.

So this group is a sure thing investment, I believe.

NVAX is on that group, so I want to buy and hold some shares for the coming months. I feel a breakout of the recent highs is looming and can happen anytime soon.

David, once again, nice pick with HEB!

I think HEB and NVAX are going to be a nice pair with Avian bird flu.

I bought 50%/50% (HEB/NVAX) this morning.

Article mentions NVAX as one of the Avian flu players (scroll down to the bottom of the article).  I own a lot of NVAX and HEB, and expect the media coverage to pick up even more over the coming days.  Based on what I've researched so far, the fear over the real possibility of a pandemic is not going away anytime soon -- they may conclude soon that there will be one, but will not be able to rule anything out in the near future. Further, the government is going to fund the stockpiling of the vaccines now, regardless of whether this strain of the bird flu turns into the human to human pandemic.  HEB and NVAX are both well positioned to help: HEB makes a product that increases the effectiveness of Tamiflu by as much as 300%, while NVAX has a unique process for the mass production of a vaccine (the biggest concern amongst officials right now appears to be the need to find a way to quickly mass produce a stockpile).

Anyway, here is the link and text to the article -- good luck all, and lets hope that we don't have to actually put the stockpiled vaccine to use.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=CHO20051004&articleId=1041

Martial Law and the Avian Flu Pandemic


By Michel Chossudovsky

October 4, 2005


The threat of the avian flu pandemic is real. Until recently, national governments and the WHO have dismissed the seriousness of the crisis. The public has been  misinformed.  The issue has been barely mentioned by the media.

Why all of a sudden is avian flu on the presidential agenda?

The issue was placed on the agenda of the President's White House Press Conference (October 4, 2005). There was nothing spontaneous in the White House journalist's question to President Bush, which explicitly pointed to a role for the country's "defense assets" in the case of a pandemic.

We are not dealing with an off-the-cuff statement. Both the question as well as Bush's response calling for a greater role of the Military, had been prepared in advance: 

QUESTION: Mr. President, you've been thinking a lot about pandemic flu and the risks in the United States if that should occur.

I was wondering, Secretary Leavitt has said that first responders in the states and local governments are not prepared for something like that. To what extent are you concerned about that after Katrina and Rita?

And is that one of the reasons you're interested in the idea of using defense assets to respond to something as broad and long-lasting as a flu might be?

BUSH: Yes. Thank you for the question.

I am concerned about avian flu. I'm concerned about what an avian flu outbreak could mean for the United States and the world.

BUSH: I have thought through the scenarios of what an avian flu outbreak could mean. I tried to get a better handle on what the decision-making process would be by reading Mr. Barry's book on the influenza outbreak in 1918. I would recommend it.

The policy decisions for a president in dealing with an avian flu outbreak are difficult.

One example: If we had an outbreak somewhere in the United States, do we not then quarantine that part of the country? And how do you, then, enforce a quarantine?

It's one thing to shut down airplanes. It's another thing to prevent people from coming in to get exposed to the avian flu.

BUSH: And who best to be able to effect a quarantine?

One option is the use of a military that's able to plan and move. So that's why I put it on the table. I think it's an important debate for Congress to have.

I noticed the other day, evidently, some governors didn't like it. I understand that. I was the commander in chief of the National Guard and proudly so. And, frankly, I didn't want the president telling me how to be the commander in chief of the Texas Guard.

But Congress needs to take a look at circumstances that may need to vest the capacity of the president to move beyond that debate. And one such catastrophe or one such challenge could be an avian flu outbreak.

QUESTION: (OFF-MIKE)

BUSH: Wait a minute, this is an important subject.

Secondly, during my meetings at the United Nations, not only did I speak about it publicly, I spoke about it privately to as many leaders as I could find, about the need for there to be awareness, one, of the issue and two, reporting -- rapid reporting to WHO, so that we can deal with a potential pandemic.

The reporting needs to be not only on the birds that have fallen ill, but also on tracing the capacity of the virus to go from bird to person to person. That's when it gets dangerous: when it goes bird, person, person.

BUSH: And we need to know on a real-time basis as quickly as possible the facts so that the world scientific community can analyze the facts and begin to deal with it.

Obviously, the best way to deal with a pandemic is to isolate it and keep it isolated in the region in which it begins.

As you know, there's been a lot of reporting of different flocks that have fallen ill with the H5N1 virus. And we've also got some cases of the virus being transmitted to a person, and we're watching very carefully.

Thirdly, the development of a vaccine.

BUSH: I've spent time with Tony Fauci on the subject.

Obviously, it would be helpful if we had a breakthrough in the capacity to develop a vaccine that would enable us to feel comfortable here at home, that not only would first responders be able to be vaccinated, but as many Americans as possible, and people around the world.

But, unfortunately, we're just not that far down the manufacturing process. And there's a spray, as you know, that can maybe help arrest the spread of the disease, which is in relatively limited supply.

So one of the issues is how do we encourage the manufacturing capacity of the country, and maybe the world, to be prepared to deal with the outbreak of a pandemic?

BUSH: In other words, can we surge enough production to be able to help deal with the issue?

I take this issue very seriously, and I appreciate you bringing it to our attention.

The people of the country ought to rest assured that we're doing everything we can. We're watching it. We're careful. We're in communications with the world.

I'm not predicting an outbreak. I'm just suggesting to you that we better be thinking about it. And we are. And we're more than thinking about it, we're trying to put plans in place.

And one of the plans -- back to where your original question came -- was, you know, if we need to take some significant action, how best to do so. And I think the president ought to have all options on the table to understand what the consequences are -- all assets on the table, not options -- assets on the table to be able to deal with something this significant. (White House Press Conference, 4 October, 2005, italics added)

Militarization of Public Health

The statement of President Bush suggests the enactment of Martial Law in the case of an avian flu outbreak. Martial Law could also be established, using the pretext of an outbreak of avian flu in foreign countries and its potential impacts on the US. 

In other words, the Military rather than the country's civilian health authorities would be put in charge.

A decision to put the Military in charge of a public health emergency spells disaster, as evidenced by the intervention of the Military in hurricane relief in Louisiana and Southern Texas. (See http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=newsHighlights&newsId=29

The pandemic is being presented to public opinion as an issue of  National Security, with a view to triggering the militarization of civilian institutions in blatant violation of the Posse Comitatus Act. 

The statement of President Bush with regard to the avian flu pandemic bears a marked resemblance to an earlier statement, also at a Press Conference, in the wake of Hurricane Rita, during which the President and Commander in Chief called for the Military to become the "lead agency" in disaster relief.

BUSH  ".....The other question, of course, I asked, was, is there a circumstance in which the Department of Defense becomes the lead agency. Clearly, in the case of a terrorist attack, that would be the case, but is there a natural disaster which -- of a certain size that would then enable the Defense Department to become the lead agency in coordinating and leading the response effort. That's going to be a very important consideration for Congress to think about. (Italics added)

(Press Conference, 25 Sept 2005
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=BUS20050925&articleId=1004 )

The hidden agenda consists in using the threat of a pandemic and/or the plight of a natural disaster as a pretext to establish military rule, under the facade of a "functioning democracy".

What Bush's statements suggest is that Congress should enact legislation which will, in practice suspend Constituional government and allow the Military to intervene in civilian affairs in violation of the Posse Comitatus Act. The latter, however, while still on the books, is in practice already defunct.

(See Frank Morales at http://globalresearch.ca/articles/MOR309A.html ).

Legislation inherited from the Clinton administration, not to mention the post 9/11 Patriot Acts I and II, "blurs the line between military and civilian roles". It allows the military to intervene in judicial and law enforcement activities even in the absence of an emergency situation.

In 1996, legislation was passed which allowed the military to intervene in the case of a national emergency (e.g.. a terrorist attack). In 1999, Clinton's Defense Authorization Act (DAA) extended those powers (under the 1996 legislation) by creating an "exception" to the Posse Comitatus Act, which permits the military to be involved in civilian affairs "regardless of whether there is an emergency".

(See ACLU at http://www.aclu.org/NationalSecurity/NationalSecurity.cfm?ID=8683&c=24 )


Despite this 1999 "exception" to the Posse Comitatus Act", which effectively invalidates it, both the Pentagon and Homeland Security, have been actively lobbying Congress for the outright repeal of the 1878 legislation.

( See  Michel Chossudovsky, http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CHO504B.html )

To achieve public support for the Military to become  "the lead agency", the Bush administration is not only resorting to the usual counter-terrorism justification.
Other supportive criteria are being developed to justify military rule. In this regard, at the height of Hurricane Katrina, meetings were held under the auspices of US Northern Command, involving the participation of  Bush, Rumsfeld and Chertoff,  to examine the role of the military in disaster relief. (See http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=CHO20050924&articleId=991

Spiraling Defense Budget

According to the Wall Street Journal (Oct 1, 2005), the Bush administration plans to ask Congress for an estimated $6-10 billion "to stockpile vaccines and antiviral medications as part of its plans to prepare the U.S. for a possible flu pandemic" 

This commitment of the administration has not, however, resulted in an expansion of the nation's public health budget. In fact quite the opposite. Consistent with its role as "lead agency", more than half of the money earmarked for the program is slated to be handed over to the Pentagon. 

An amendment to the defense-spending bill in the Senate would earmark $3.9 billion "to prepare the U.S. for a flu pandemic".

In other words, what we are dealing with is a process of  militarization of  the civilian budget. Civilian social sector budgets are now being transferred to the Department of Defense. The money for a public health program is controlled by the Department of Defense, under the rules of DoD procurement.   

"The US Senate voted yesterday to provide $4 billion for antiviral drugs and other measures to prepare for a feared influenza pandemic, but whether the measure would clear Congress was uncertain.

The Senate attached the measure to a $440 billion defense-spending bill for 2006, according to the Associated Press (AP). But the House included no flu money in its version of the defense bill, and a key senator said he would try to keep the funds out of the House-Senate compromise version. The Senate is expected to vote on the overall bill next week.

Almost $3.1 billion of the money would be used to stockpile the antiviral drug oseltamivir (Tamiflu), and the rest would go for global flu surveillance, development of vaccines, and state and local preparedness, according to a Reuters report. The government currently has enough oseltamivir to treat a few million people, with a goal of acquiring enough to treat 20 million"

(CIDRAP, http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/news/sep3005avian.html )

Multibillion Financial Bonanza for the BioTech Conglomerates

The threat of the avian flu pandemic will result in multibillion dollar earnings for the pharmaceutical and biotech industry. 

In this regard, a number of major pharmaceutical companies including GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi-Aventis, California based Chiron Corp, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc, Novavax  and Wave Biotech,  Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche Holding, have positioned themselves in the procurement of vaccines in case of an avian 'flu outbreak. Maryland-based biotechnology company MedImmune which produces "an inhaled flu vaccine" has also positioned itself to develop a vaccine against the H5N1 avian flu.

(Although it has no expertise in the avian flu virus, one of the major actors in the vaccine business, on contract to the Pentagon, is Bioport, a company which is part owned by the Carlyle Group, which is closely linked to the Bush Cabinet with Bush Senior on its board of directors.)



Michel Chossudovsky is Professor of Economics at the University of Ottawa and Director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG). He is the author of a America's "War on Terrorism", Global Research,  September 2005.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Centre for Research on Globalization.

To become a Member of Global Research

The Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG) at www.globalresearch.ca grants permission to cross-post original Global Research articles in their entirety, or any portions thereof, on community internet sites, as long as the text & title are not modified. The source must be acknowledged and an active URL hyperlink address to the original CRG article must be indicated. The author's copyright note must be displayed. For publication of Global Research articles in print or other forms including commercial internet sites, contact: [email protected]

www.globalresearch.ca contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of "fair use" in an effort to advance a better understanding of political, economic and social issues. The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving it for research and educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than "fair use" you must request permission from the copyright owner.

To express your opinion on this article, join the discussion at Global Research's News and Discussion Forum

For media inquiries: [email protected]

© Copyright Michel Chossudovsky, Global Research, 2005

The url address of this article is: www.globalresearch.ca/PrintArticle.php?articleId=1041



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


© Copyright 2005 GlobalResearch.ca
Web site engine by Polygraphx Multimedia © Copyright 2005

This was Institutional managers buy/sell activity today for NVAX by Lycos I-Watch.  As you can see, they were loading up on NVAX ALL DAY.

Here's a comprehensive article on Avian virus by TIME ASIA.  The article discusses the potential death rate (millions to billions) if the Avian virus mutates:

http://www.time.com/time/asia/magazine/printout/0,13675,501050926-1106457,00.html

President Bush will host Avian Flu conference at 2PM EST.

I found this post in one of the MB this morning:

"Shares of "Pandemic Summit" Names Advance [delayed]
09:43 a.m. 10/07/2005 Provided by Ridgeland, MS, OCT 07, 2005 (EventX/Knobias.com via COMTEX) -- President Bush hosts a Pandemic Summit today where he will meet with execs from CHIR, MEDI, GSK, MRK, SNY & WYE. Shares of these summit participants are mostly higher in pre-market trading. Other companies tied to the vaccination industry that may have already seen "bird flu rallies" include: DVAX, GMED, HEB, NNVC, NVAX, VRA & VXGN. "

Institutional managers have been buying all day again (chart from Lycos I-Watch):

Interesting read:

http://www.reachm.com/amstreet/archives/2005/09/29/the-disaster-thats-sneaking-up-behind-you/

September 29, 2005
The Disaster That's Sneaking Up Behind You
From Monga Bay:

Different influenza strains spread around the world annually. Every so often a strain tough enough to kill millions emerges, and experts believe the world is overdue for another pandemic. Unraveling what made the 1918 flu so vicious could help doctors better react if a similar strain returns.

All flu viruses are thought to have originated in birds. But scientists also have long thought that to cause human epidemics, the viruses first had to jump from birds to pigs, where genetic changes that allow the strains to better spread in mammals occur.

Flu strains that are more birdlike are more dangerous to people because their immune systems haven't been exposed to them before.

Flu in birds, pigs and people Asia's current bird flu, a strain known as H5N1, clearly can jump directly from poultry to people — at least 15 people have died of it this winter. Most cases have been traced directly to contact with sick birds, although human-to- human transmission has not been ruled out in one instance.

In the new research, scientists reconstructed the three-dimensional structure of the hemagglutinin protein, a protein on the surface of the flu virus that allows it to attach to and penetrate lung cells.

Hemagglutinin from human and bird flu viruses interact with different cell receptors, which is why birds infecting people is rare.

Part of the reason that twenty to forty million people succumbed to the 1918 flu - so virulent it could kill within a few hours - was because scientists didn't even discover the flu virus till 1933.

Today's H5N1 virus, the lethal avian influenza that first appeared in Hong Kong in 1997, has a kill rate of 70%, but research indicates a vaccine could prevent a devastating pandemic. If someone creates one.

But until they unlock the probable mutation path that may make it so easily spread between humans, all current vaccines remain incomplete guesses. In 1976, the similarity of the swine flu to the 1918 virus created such a scare that a mass national vaccination campaign that backfired. The flu proved to be pretty benign and no epidemic occurred. But more than 1000 people developed Guillain-Barre syndrome (generalised muscle weakness) from the vaccination, and nearly 50 died from the misplaced defense.

But there's a few positive notes, like this, which was announced August 25th:

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) , a specialty biopharmaceutical company, today reported preclinical results on the Company's novel Virus-Like Particle (VLP) influenza vaccine. Novavax's biological group led by Dr. Gale Smith, together with Dr. Tumpey and Dr. Bu from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, published the detailed results in the August 15 online edition of the journal Vaccine. The study demonstrates that a H9N2 influenza virus (avian flu) vaccine produced with the Company's proprietary VLP technology is effective in protecting animals when challenged with live H9N2 influenza virus.

"Our VLP technology, based on a scalable process with short production lead times, offers an attractive alternative to the existing egg-dependent and the newer cell-based methods for the manufacture of influenza vaccine and other urgently needed vaccines. These advantages address the challenge of producing large quantities of a pandemic flu vaccine within a short timeframe," said Rahul Singhvi, President and CEO of Novavax. "This publication demonstrates the value of Novavax's VLP vaccine pipeline. Our plan is to advance our VLP technology into clinical trials with both pandemic and seasonal versions of influenza VLP vaccines."

The gist of the trials indicates that a fast way to produce mass quantities of vaccine may exist, if subsequent trials prove as positive. But for a virus that can kill in a very few hours, such production speed - which may save millions of lives - may not be fast enough to prevent millions of deaths still.

But it's a start. It would also be useful if more people knew the facts about how fast the avian flu could mutate into such a pandemic-causing form. It will take public pressure on elected officials to fund the research and fast-track the trials so - if we're lucky - we might head this one off.

Avian flu, after all, poses the deadliest threat known to humans, short of a nuclear holocaust. And have you heard our leaders discussing it? I haven't. Which means our leaders aren't leading.

Related Links:

The Georgetown Voice

Plutonium Page at Daily Kos

Melanie Mattson

Because, beginning Sunday, is Pandemic Flu Awareness Week.

By Kevin Hayden   1:55 am     Natural Disasters, Health, Health R & D

2 Responses to "The Disaster That's Sneaking Up Behind You"
DavidByron Says:

September 29th, 2005 at 5:07 pm
Earning extra credit, huh?

Because, beginning Sunday, is Pandemic Flu Awareness Week.

Lawrence Shultz Says:

October 9th, 2005 at 5:36 am
I think that Novavax should be granted FAST TRACK Status and place it VLP technology in production NOW. If it has possibilities the Goverment should be willing to do what EVER it takes to make it happen before it is too late.
God Help Us All

Made a solid pick up of 5k shares on Friday ahead of the latest news of the cases in Turkey and Romania.  This should fair very well even in the upcoming bear market.

US Government revised the draft of Avian response plan.  They now estimate the death rate at 1.9 million:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051009/ap_on_he_me/flu_pandemic

Great information, thank you.

Everything is in place for this Bird Flu group to advance meaningfully from this point, the news is bullish (bullish for this group, but dreadful for humanity  (it is better to know the truth than to ignore it, this way we can and will prepare for the disease - that's why these plays can rise a lot even if nothing happens - that would be the ideal scenario).

As I was saying, the news is bullish and it won't stop, the trend will be for more and more news on this subject, banging everyday on people's lives and thoughts. A bubble could develop on this small group, if the message really passes through the publics collective mind.

Anyway, I need to set some rules in case these are all wrong thoughts and NVAX heads down. We always need to consider this possibility (because it is quite real, as someone who spent some years trading stocks knows very well) and control risk.

If we're right, we'll make big profits. If we're wrong, we'll take small losses. That's how this game must be played.

Technically, I have a symmetrical triangle on the chart. The stock can't close below the ascending trendline, which for today stands at $1.60 (but rising everyday), or I'll be forced to sell. I hope NVAX breaks the triangle on the upside, the market has the word now.

NICE breakout ! On my screen 2.73 is the high !

What a nice day again!

I am bought in at $2.02.  I sold my position in HEB with a nice gain and bought more NVAX at $2.47.

With last week and today's volume, NVAX is definitely getting attention:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/stocksinmotion/10246554_2.html

After President Bush's conference with vaccine companies on Friday, there's been more coverage on the media as to the seriousness and the revised death potential of Avian virus (1.9 million for US alone).

What's your take on a new target of $2.70 - $2.80?