3SOF

Hmmm...

Didn't like todays movement - very strange considering how much other bird flu stocks were up.  Could this be telling us something??  I will hold for now, and it looks like we got a little AH rally, but seems a bit fishy when SVA VICL and BCRX all ripped hard today 

We'll see tomorrow

I agree with you scottish i wasn't liking the price action today at as well, but then again who would, unless someone was shorting. It was strange to see all the other bird plays go up big today such as vicl and sva, yet the lower prices ones stayed in the shallows. I just bought in HEB yesterday and believe its too early for me to sell. My stop loss point is a close below 1.92 wich was the low for todays price action, as well it is a penny above a 61.8% fibbonacci retracement. And yes there was a nice after hours rally with HEB's price action  back up to 2.00 currently. Good luck to everyone and myself who decided to continue to hold this one after todays ugly retracement. With so much hype in the flu market right now, I just can't see this one not going up. Guess, we'll just have to wait and see.

-fousc

Well you guys have said it all- not much to add - I still hold my HEB, although David should have sold based on his rule. I am waiting to hear. Did not look at the AH but will. At one point HEB made a nice upwards move but did not last.

even uglier was MEMY, which also broke down below David's threshold of 2.5. I kicked most of my shares out in the 2.40 area!!

I will see how the action is in the am, and then decide what to do. Thank God for SVA to make up for this one.

Defenderyou

Support 1.87  Triple 10

I am not selling unless it closes below this number

I really don't know why HEB went down so hard yesterday, given that other Bird Flu plays did well enough. Perhaps robt is right and Ampligen won't be available fast enough for the company to profit from the Avian Flu mania (we hops it's just that), or the product's price is way too high.

I don't know, but I always knew there would be losers on this field, and the market is telling HEB won't participate.

Yesterday it wasn't clear enough for me to sell, I didn't know if the close would be above or below $1.96, so I didn't sell. But I know now that it was, so I'll sell around today's open, according to my previously made plan.

I wish good luck for all of you that will continue holding !

I've brought up a lot of ngatives on HEB, but I don't think most ofthese truly matter in terms of market sentiment. BCRX, for instance, is riddled with flaws as well, but is doing great.

If I were to guess what is really leaving it behind, I'd say it's two things:

1. Ampligen has been around for a long time, and Hemispherx has tried to commercialize it repeatedly, with very little success. It has a reputation to surmount, and Hemispherx's recasting of the drug as an answer to bird flu looks like opportunism.

2. Alone among these drugs, it is an ant-viral treatment rather than a vaccine, and allegedly a "booster" that may help vaccines to work. When governments go about stockpiling vaccines, are they likely to stockpile "booster" drugs as well? Even assuming that research about the Ampligen-Tamiflu cocktail is correct, this sort of creative thinking is not generally expected from governments.

There's no way to know, of course, but I think these two factors have held HEB back.

The day may come when HEB explodes out of these constraints, and it may be worth holding on the assumption that such a day will come sooner rather than later.

A strong positive for HEB is that its efficacy will not be less if the virus mutates -- as it would have to do for a serious outbreak to occur (currently known strains communicate bird-to-human only). Vaccines are specifically targeted, and any mutation means less efficacy for them, so vaccine stockpiles are certain to lose value with passing time. This fact hasn't penetrated market consciousness.

Funny thing - I too could not tell where it was to close so I too did nothing yet; here is where I may differ from you - I will watch HEB first and then sell on a rebound if I can, unless it quickly recovers to over 2.10. Will let you know later this am

Defenderyou

Thanks David

Bought HEB at 1.83.  The .618% retracement of the rally from 1.36 to 2.57 is 1.82, which is this morning's low so far.

I bought it yesterday at $2.04 and it went up to $2.24 then slipped. I sold it at $2.18 and kept my small profit - 3k shares for about $400.

That is the kind of stocks you have to be very careful, keep close eye all the time.

Now I may take some rest (my portfolion does not allow me to short stocks) and wait for the bottom of tech stocks (may be at the end of this month) to arrive.

Actually the semi earnings so far are quite good such as AMD, MU, ATYT, etc.

Warnings from XLNX, SGTL, SWKS.

I hope the semi index goes down to 380 again.

Hey Melf Elf,

Well I think you got 2 very good purchases there today - as you know, am hanging in long on both of them. 

By the way, I still haven't sold out of EGHT, hopefully we'll see a little rebound this afternoon, and I can get a better sell position.  I think I may be done on that one though 

What a horrible day today for HEB. As well price action fell another .08 to 1.70 in after hours trading. I still have a posistion in this one as well at 2.20. Im debating whether or not to sell at the market open tomorrow.  I suppose i will since my trading plan was to sell on a close below 1.92.

-fousc

If this gaps down tomorrow to $1.7, i'm all over it.  Avian flu media coverage is not going away.  Granted this is a momo sector play, but the hype alone should merit another bounce back over $2.  Depending on trader momo and the right news, I could easily see this one run to $3.

Buying at $1.7 presents decent risk/reward.

Quote from: bula on October 12, 2005, 10:58:53 PM
If this gaps down tomorrow to $1.7, i'm all over it.  Avian flu media coverage is not going away.  Granted this is a momo sector play, but the hype alone should merit another bounce back over $2.  Depending on trader momo and the right news, I could easily see this one run to $3.

Buying at $1.7 presents decent risk/reward.

That was my thinking, too, Bula.  If the 50/200 DMAs (1.62 - 1.65) don't provide support, though, I'll sell.

Thanks for your posts, I'm just leaving an updated chart of HEB, an incredible tough break. The Bear is haunting every stock 

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 12, 2005, 09:59:19 AM
Bought HEB at 1.83.  The .618% retracement of the rally from 1.36 to 2.57 is 1.82, which is this morning's low so far.

Sold HEB at 1.96.  Gain: 7.1%

I expected HEB to hold yesterday near my entry at the .618% retracement level, then rally 10% to near-term resistance at 2.00.  Instead, it closed lower at 1.78, then rallied 10%+ today, so I shaved my expectation.