3SOF

Jesus, terrific posts on this SVA thread  Probably SVA's rise is inspiring you guys ... I feel I don't need to say much today, SVA continues to climb at a torrid pace and I still hold it.

My take on the Avian Flu is slightly different from Michael's. I don't know if it will spread to humans  or not (I hope it doesn't), but I see demand for these company's products either way. Also, like every theme stocks, when the speculation is over they will come down like a rock.

I believe SVA still has a lot of room to grow but I'm not a long term investor on the company. I will hold for as long as the trend is bullish, and when that's over, I'll sell it for whatever profit I have. You see, the revenue and earnings peek for the company can be two or three years from now, and yet the stock price peek can be just a month or two into the future ...

For now I'm glad that the stock, coming up from $1.65 in June 2005, has decisively broke the  $5 level (it seems that most stocks coming from below $2 to above $5 stall there, maybe because many brokers only allow stocks to be shorted when they are above $5 !)

Probably SVA was heavily shorted when it first came above $5, but it seems those bears where wrong and now they need to buy to cover, adding fuel to the rise ...

I agree with Michael when he says that these big winners are the ones that bring us above average returns, so one needs to let the profits grow for them to turn big. That's what I will continue doing with SVA, holding for as long as the trend remains bullish.

Great day with SVA (and AOB and HOM)!

I think a fair value of SVA without Avian Flu is $1B, based on its chinse FDA approved Influenza Flu (not bird flu), when its 20M capacity is announced. This gives the stock $25+, within a year. I am a patient investor like Michael. :-)

Why are these being posted here 

The SVA board is in 3SOF.  I just think it is easier to avoid confusion if posts are held within one thread, and especially for 3SOF stocks.  Otherwise things just start to get too confusing with duplicate threads etc.  It's a good idea to at least try look for existing threades before posting about a stock.

Just my thoughts 

Applause to Defenderyou, as his mention of BCRX brought this issue to my attention -- I was too late for its full run yesterday, but saw an 8% return!

There's much that's shaky about BCRX -- I suspect it will be a possible short candidate in the near future -- but the market is never wrong.

Good message from Michael.

Fundamental is the most important in buying stocks.

I will have a look of the three stocks CKCM, KOMG, and NFI and may take a position when the stocks turns bullish.

Also IDSY is a pure play for RF application, UP 100% in few months, big up and down.

For me no matter how good a company seems, I will always keep one sell rule: out when the stock is down 7% from my purchase price, sometime much less if I feel not comfortable after the purchase.

You never know whether a company is cheating on you or not.

I have another trading rule:

After you sell for a loss and you believe that the company you just sold presents a good investment opportunity, keep a close eye on it and look for another buying point, like David did on JDSU.

Few years back, I bought CCK at $5.3 (June 2001) thinking it was a turnaround story (already down 90% from $57). But it dropped as low as $0.80 later on.

Next year it went up to $12.00. I made 100% return on it but this is really high risk (I lost 85% during the process). It may never rebound or if I sold it at $4.96 for 7% loss and bought it later at $1.00, it will be a 1200% return.

Thanks for this Shawfund:

QuoteI have another trading rule:

After you sell for a loss and you believe that the company you just sold presents a good investment opportunity, keep a close eye on it and look for another buying point, like David did on JDSU.

Few years back, I bought CCK at $5.3 (June 2001) thinking it was a turnaround story (already down 90% from $57). But it dropped as low as $0.80 later on.

Next year it went up to $12.00. I made 100% return on it but this is really high risk (I lost 85% during the process). It may never rebound or if I sold it at $4.96 for 7% loss and bought it later at $1.00, it will be a 1200% return.

Everyday I scan the entire market and run the previously owned stocks looking for buying opportunities. The previously owned 3 SOF stocks are all breaking down heavily. And on my filters I could only see rebound candidates, not a single stock breaking out to new short term highs with volume above average.

This is why I only have 18% of the portfolio invested at this point. My performance looks like it is starting to peek, around 150 to 160% since April 2005. I feel I should now go almost completely into cash, wait for the dust to settle and prepare to have a part of the portfolio in short positions, say, no more than 25% like one of our members suggested.

I see stocks with good and bad fundamentals breaking supports and initiating downtrends. If the attractive fundamentals were already discounted by the market, those stocks can go down too.

On SVA I have a 66% open profit and the chance to put the 3 SOF Portfolio at its high. I'm afraid people will sell their profits to balance their losses elsewhere, like I'm about to do today.

I will sell SVA today because of deep general market weakness that will probably take all boats down now, specially those where people have huge short term profits. I'll look to buy it back again at lower levels (below $5).

If somebody would like to receive the 27 slides UBS SVA presentation from 26th of September, please contact me!

I still hold SVA and will continue to hold it as long as it keeps its uptrend. It held pretty well during this down week and its going higher today. All I am doing is riasing my trailing stop loss, keeping it a little lower than the trendline.I would like to post the chart but I don't know how its done (don't know how the other members post the charts)

Gang:

EMFP - this a bird flu stock related and a penny stock candidate I think.  Actually its into filtration masks - I dont normally deal in pennies, but I came across this on some bird flu related msg boards and thought it might be of interest to some of you. Do your own DD: I dont know how to paste a chart in - so I am including the url to see the chart. Its well thought of by some savy investors I communicate with on some msg boards.

David - what do you think?

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=emfp,uu[h,a]daclyyay[pb200!b50!f][vc60][iut!Uc20!Lb14]&pref=G

Hi Randstory,

Would you give an update on these picks (as well as anything you find interesting now). 

Bird flu victims face forced quarantine
http://news.scotsman.com/health.cfm?id=2095992005

RICHARD GRAY AND JEREMY WATSON
HEALTH CORRESPONDENT

DRACONIAN measures to forcibly examine and quarantine human victims of the deadly bird flu strain spreading across the world have been introduced by the government as scientists confirmed yesterday the virus had now appeared in mainland Europe.

Laboratory tests carried out in Britain have identified the virus that has killed wild birds in Romania's Danube delta as the H5N1 strain that has devastated flocks in Asia, killing more than 60 people.

All vehicles entering and leaving the infected Romanian region are now to be disinfected and checkpoints have been set up on roads entering the area. Exports of eggs and poultry were banned.

It also emerged a Scots poultry farm was sealed off after some hens fell ill with a suspected bird virus. Castleton Farm, near Stewarton, Ayrshire, was cordoned off as tests for Newcastle disease and Avian flu were carried out but it was reopened yesterday after they came back negative.

Health experts fear if the bird flu virus mutates into an infectious human strain then millions of people around the world could die.

Emergency contingency plans drawn up by the Scottish Executive and the Department of Health in June to deal specifically with the new threat estimate that between 4,500 and 64,000 Scots could die if an outbreak struck in this country.


The report reveals that health boards will be given the power to seek orders from sheriffs to force people they suspect of being infected to have a medical examination and they could be detained in hospital.

Local authorities could also ban individuals from going to work and children would be forbidden from attending school or places of entertainment if they had been exposed to infection.

New criminal offences could also be created in which people knowingly exposing others to the risk of infection could be prosecuted.

The report said the provisions would be possible under powers given to local authorities by the Public Health Acts. It said: "Key provisions include powers to seek orders from a justice of the peace (sheriff in Scotland) requiring a person to be medically examined and to be removed to and detained in hospital."

Infection control experts last night confirmed these powers were likely to be used in the early stages of an outbreak.

Dr Jim McMenamin, a consultant epidemiologist at Health Protection Scotland, said:

"The contingency plans outline a range of social and medical measures.

"These powers are in place today and available to us tomorrow and it would depend on the level of illness in the population as to which emergency powers would be brought in."

Good to see that 3SOF finally have a bird flu stock in the portfolio - just a shame it is not the best one 

Nothing can wake the interest of the investment community more than if a potential disaster is close to home.

People can die in the thousands in Africa or Asia but if a dead duck is found in Romania with Bird Flu people stand up and listen. The Investment community is really strange - imagine when the first bird is found in US

The good news is that it finally seems like the rest of the world has found out that we might face a potential disaster and the capitalistic system do what they are best at and that is throwing money at the problem. All vaccine stocks had a great day today. SVA increases 19% under record volume.

I still believe SVA is the best vaccine play. As mentioned a couple of days ago the Chinese government has refused to share samples of new bird flu strains with the rest of the world. As said then: you can only wonder who's commercial interests they are protecting.

Saturday Reuters gave the answer:

QuoteChina says it has a better vaccine for bird flu

BEIJING (Reuters) - China has developed a new and better vaccine for use on birds against the avian influenza strain that scientists fear could cause a global pandemic among humans, state media said on Saturday.

The vaccine had the advantage of fighting another common bird disease, as well as the H5N1 influenza strain that has spread from Asia to Europe, state television reported. It identified this as avulavirus APMV-1, also known as Newcastle disease.

"What's more, the new vaccine is safer, more convenient to use and cannot kill new born chicks," it said, listing attributes that made it more attractive to farmers than a vaccine they were already using.

I think it is only a matter of time before SVA is trading significantly higher:

Hi Michael,
I have corrected my mistake from friday, I have bought back SVA (6.8$) and NVAX (2.63$).
Missed one dollar per share with my SVA sold last thursday.
In total my overall profit is awesome 
cheers
O.

I do think that SVA is the best in the bird flu group. Now that bird flu is found in Greece, I think there should not be any problem for SVA to reach $10 or higher by the time it presents before WHO in 2 weeks.


-Louis

Got to agree that SVA still has a long way to run in this whole (unfortunate) bird flu story. Todays action took SVA over it's all time high of $6.95 set 2004, so not only is it on fire due to the whole story playing out it also technically is now in blue sky territory having set new absolute highs. I took profits on 1/3rd of my SVA holding today purely because of the size of my position relative to  my overall port, otherwise I am letting this one run. By the way last time SVA ran to this level it immediately started giving it all back, however now I think the momentum, story, volume is too much for that to happen again
Michael is quite right about the reaction to a bird dying in Romania versus human catastrophes in Africa, that is indeed a sad indictment of our world. A dead bird in America will definately invoke HUGE reaction.

Weekly Chart: