3SOF

News Update - Avian virus now showing resistance to Tamiflu.


10/15/2005 07:09:20 AM EDT
Daily Post


ATTEMPTS to control the deadly bird flu could be helping to create a drug resistant form of the virus, new research suggested last night.

Scientists identified a strain of the H5N1 virus in Vietnam resistant to Tamiflu, the drug being stockpiled to fight any outbreak in the UK.

It was found in a Vietnamese girl who was put on a course of preventative treatment with Tamiflu for four days in February.

Medics fear she may be one of the first H5N1 victims to acquire the virus through person-to-person transmission The British government does not plan to offer Tamiflu, one of a class of drugs called neuraminidase inhibitors, to healthy people as a precaution.

But prophylactic (taken as a preventative measure) use of Tamiflu was part of the control measures being adopted in Asian hotspots where about 60 people died from the virus.

The new findings, due to be published in the journal Nature next week, suggest it may be contributing to the emergence of drug resistance.

Viruses and bacteria can become resistant if the treatment used against them was too weak.

Up to now the virus has only been known to pass from birds to humans. At least one other case of transmission between humans has been suspected, but not confirmed.

Health experts fear that if the virus mutates into a form that transmits easily between people it could trigger a global pandemic claiming millions of lives.

A team led by Yoshihiro Kawaoka, from the University of Tokyo in Japan, looked at 10 viral clones from the girl and found six were highly resistant to Tamiflu.

Three others were slightly resistant and one was "highly sensitive".

However even the highly resistant virus did succumb to another drug, zanamivir - marketed as Relenza - which has been suggested as an alternative bird flu treatment but so far not been widely adopted.

A Department of Health spokeswoman said there were no current plans to administer it prophylactically either to members of the public or health workers

Here is last week's Lycos I-watch recap.  There's been a lot accumulation with little selling activity.  If accumulating continues next week, it is good for NVAX.

If buying activity stops, then managers will be holding for sell points.

I am holding NVAX through Wednesday's Bio Investor Forum 2005 in San Francisco, unless there is a nice gain.  Then I'll sell to take profit and buy back on pullback/dip.

Good trading!

Yes LiveLife, I'm still with you.  Holding 1500 of 5000.  I dropped 3500 when it originally couldn't hold 2.56 . With all the attention surrounding the bird flu, any little bit of negative info regarding the effectiveness of its product will cause the bottom to drop out.

Hello all,

Some have asked me to post info from Premium NVAX board here so that non-premium members can see the info.

If you don't mind, I'll duplicate some charts/posts here from last week.

Please let me know if there is any problem.

Thanks.

Here's my duplicate post from October 7:

This was Institutional managers buy/sell activity today for NVAX by Lycos I-Watch.  As you can see, they were loading up on NVAX ALL DAY.

Here's another duplicate post from October 7:

Here's a comprehensive article on Avian virus by TIME ASIA.  The article discusses the potential death rate (millions to billions) if the Avian virus mutates:

http://www.time.com/time/asia/magazine/printout/0,13675,501050926-1106457,00.html

Another duplicate post from October 7:

President Bush will host Avian Flu conference at 2PM EST.

I found this post in one of the MB this morning:

"Shares of "Pandemic Summit" Names Advance [delayed]
09:43 a.m. 10/07/2005 Provided by Ridgeland, MS, OCT 07, 2005 (EventX/Knobias.com via COMTEX) -- President Bush hosts a Pandemic Summit today where he will meet with execs from CHIR, MEDI, GSK, MRK, SNY & WYE. Shares of these summit participants are mostly higher in pre-market trading. Other companies tied to the vaccination industry that may have already seen "bird flu rallies" include: DVAX, GMED, HEB, NNVC, NVAX, VRA & VXGN. "

Chart from Lycos I-Watch:

Duplicate post from October 10:

US Government revised the draft of Avian response plan.  They now estimate the death rate at 1.9 million:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051009/ap_on_he_me/flu_pandemic

Duplicate post from October 10:

What a nice day again!

I am bought in at $2.02.  I sold my position in HEB with a nice gain and bought more NVAX at $2.47.

With last week and today's volume, NVAX is definitely getting attention:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/stocksinmotion/10246554_2.html

After President Bush's conference with vaccine companies on Friday, there's been more coverage on the media as to the seriousness and the revised death potential of Avian virus (1.9 million for US alone).

What's your take on a new target of $2.70 - $2.80?

Duplicate post from October 12:

Another 10 million share day! WOW.  Like David said, this stock will hit the stock screeners/radars all over the place now with two consistent days of 9-10 million in volume.

Dang, I had my limit sell at $2.80     I thought about doing a limit sell at $2.70 (Got to listen to your hunches and voice of REASON more ... LOL)   

Another day of Institutional managers buying (chart from Lycos I-watch)

Great call on VICL too, David.  Just keep up the great work you guys!!!

Duplicate post from October 13:

This news out this morning.  If you buy/sell on dips and peaks until the Bio Investor Forum next Wednesday, could make money on anticipation of the forum.  I know David sold, and I also sold but bought back on dip.  If you are still holding NVAX or any stock position during this bearish market, be very careful and REALLY watch your stock rise/fall activity.  Sell on gains and buy back on TRUE dips and rebounds.

Good trading.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051013/nyth054.html?.v=27

Novavax to Present at the 2005 Bio InvestorForum
Thursday October 13, 8:00 am ET

MALVERN, Pa., Oct. 13 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News) a specialty biopharmaceutical company, today announced that Dr. Rahul Singhvi, President and Chief Executive Officer, will be presenting at the Biotechnology Industry Organization, 2005 Bio InvestorForum on Wednesday, October 19, 2005.

     WHEN:   Wednesday, October 19, 2005 12:00 p.m. PT

     WHERE:  The Palace Hotel, 2 New Montgomery Street, San Francisco, CA

     HOW:    The live broadcast of the presentation can be accessed through
             our website at http://www.novavax.com.  After the presentation
             date, the web cast will be archived on our website for 90 days.

    Dr. Rahul Singhvi

Dr. Singhvi was appointed President and CEO of Novavax in August, 2005. He joined the Company in April, 2004 as Vice President, Pharmaceutical Development and Manufacturing Operations. Dr. Singhvi joined Novavax after 10 years experience with Merck & Co, where he most recently served as a Director within the Merck Manufacturing division. Dr. Singhvi holds both a Master and Doctorate of Science degree in Chemical Engineering from MIT, a Master of Business Administration from The Wharton School, and a Bachelor of Technology from IIT, Kanpur, India. He holds several patents in the area of cell culturing systems and has co-authored numerous publications and abstracts on biochemical engineering and cell physiology.

Duplicate post from October 13:

Analysis from StockCharts.com very bullish for tomorrow:

Duplicate post from October 13:

FYI - Avian Virus News Update 10/13/05 4:28 PM EDT - Avian virus spreading to migrating birds, further spreading the virus infection (Video link at bottom of article):

http://www.thebostonchannel.com/health/5095988/detail.html?rss=bos&psp=health#

Duplicate post from October 14:

European Union is getting very excited about the Avian outbreak in Turkey and Romania:

Duplicate post from October 14:

This news link talks about Europe's urgency to produce more Avian vaccine and the availability of  process to produce the vaccine in 2 months instead of 6 month using cell culture rather than chicken eggs.

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2005/October/theworld_October373.xml&section=theworld&col=

NVAX has such process and the new CEO with MIT credentials holds several patents on cell culturing systems!

NVAX has a lot of potential to gain through next Wednesday's Bio InvestorForum 2005 in San Francisco where NVAX CEO will do a presentation.  You can tune into live webcast at:

http://www.novavax.com.