3SOF

Hi, everyboday, this is the first time I post message from Beijing, China.

It is very hard to access this website. Super slow.

Today is the six time I bought SVA at exactly its 9 day EMA ($6.32).

Last time I bought at $5.00 on Oct 7 and sold two days ago at $7.6.

If the stock raised too fast (two big jump), it is time to sell. Always buy at its pull back and at ascending tredline (for me, 9 EMA).

So, I have gained a componded 〉200% on SVA.

By the way, I took a flu vaccine shot today at local hospital. It costed me 92 yuan ($12 US dollars) for the shot. The vaccine is from Spain and it ihas a shortage on vaccine in China.

Everyone in our company in Beijing is required to take the shot.

That is why I bought SVA back tonight in Beijing.

Thanks for the update from China shawfund.  It sounds like you really know how to trade this stock.
Best wishes for your health and trading,   Mike

*DJ CBOE To List BioCryst Pharma, Sinovac Options Thursday   

10/19/2005
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

10-19-05 1634ET

Apparently options trading on SVA (and BCRX) will commence tomorrow - does anyone here have any idea how this may impact the share price?  According to the Yahoo MBs (which I never listen to) this could mean big things, but comments from anyone that actually knows would help.

Cheers

SVA's all time high of 6.95 is showing strong support. Price action test the high of 6.95 yesterday but failed to have a downside break. Today there was a huge intraday decline that dropped all the way down to test the gap open but was met by the bulls to close back above the prior all time high of 6.98. My chart analysis is posted below.



As well todays first case of the Bird flu was detected in Russia today. With this continueing spread of the virus i see no place to go but up for most of the bird flu stocks.

Heres the PR:

Bird flu detected in birds near Moscow
Deadly strain also found in second location in Romania

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The bird flu virus has spread to western Russia, with the deadly H5N1 strain reportedly detected in initial tests in the Tula region south of Moscow, where hundreds of birds have died.

The Russian daily Vremya reported that 247 chickens, geese and ducks on a farm in the Russian village of Yandovka had died due to a severe viral infection between Friday and Monday, according to a report on The Wall Street Journal Web site.


The case, if confirmed, would be the first in European Russia, the Journal reported. The disease had been registered in six regions of Siberia and the Urals region.

And the virus has also been detected in a second location in Romania, the BBC reported on its Web site.

Samples from the village of Maliuc tested positive for the virus. It follows an outbreak in Ceamurlia de Jos, also in Romania's Danube delta.

The spread comes as the European Union begins a two-day exercise to test readiness to deal with a major health crisis, the BBC reported. The E.U. said the exercise was planned 18 months ago, long before the current outbreak of bird flu.

At least 60 people in Asia have died after contracting flu from birds infected by H5N1, but scientists say the disease does not appear able to spread between humans.

The Journal report also said China has confirmed a fresh outbreak of avian influenza in birds in the northern province of Inner Mongolia. Tests confirmed the outbreak at a rare-bird farm in the village of Tengjiaying, near the province's capital of Hohhot northwest of Beijing, was the deadly H5N1 strain, state-run news media reported.

The outbreak has been controlled and hasn't spread to any new locations, the reports by China Central Television and the Xinhua News Agency said

Best of luck to everyone,

-fousc

QuoteToday is the six time I bought SVA at exactly its 9 day EMA ($6.32)

I also bought the 9 EMA bounce, but my plan right now is only to hold it another day or two. This plan can change on a moment's notice of course, but like I said in my post last night, there are some bearish rumblings in the chart so I'm not going to fall in love with it.

Bird flu, global pandemics, peak oil, global warming, hyperinflation, dirty bombs, bioterrorism, mad cow.... there's so much fearmongering these days. Anyone else getting tired of it? 

Quotethere's so much fearmongering these days. Anyone else getting tired of it?  Angry

Unfortunately people seem to thrive on bad news (well at least the media reinforces that by mostly only displaying bad news)
I also added to my core SVA holding today on the pullback, no brainer really. The weekly chart is still very strong and consequently any dip to support on a daily basis is a sure long signal. I have been averaging up on SVA like that and selling positions also as it made big moves upwards.
So until I see my weekly chart giving sell signals and / or daily chart breakdown I will continue to play it that way.
Weekly Chart:

I will add to that the 15 minute daily chart for the last 5 days.

As we can see, today's afternoon rally followed a small ascending trendline that pushed up against resistance at 7.00.  If SVA can break that tomorrow, then it should be pretty easy sailing up to 7.60 (with small resistance around 7.20).

Just watch for any breakdown below this ascending trendline tomorrow - I think that would signal a downward move.  Just my thoughts having just discovered 15 min and hourly charting 

QuoteJust watch for any breakdown below this ascending trendline tomorrow - I think that would signal a downward move.  Just my thoughts having just discovered 15 min and hourly charting

Hey Scottish, good luck with following your newly found chart timeframes A word of caution though. SVA is in a big long term uptrend and has been breaking new ground consistantly for many weeks now (nearly 9 in fact). Be aware that your intraday chart (of whatever time period it may be) will give multiple exit type signals if you draw any type of trendline on it as that is the nature of intraday charts, they are very noisy. If you are trading SVA based on intraday / day moves then sure that type of time frame is very valid, if you are trying to run with SVA over a longer period the intraday tick chart will likely cause you to stop out due to intraday price fluctuations that do not invalidate the overall trend.

For what it's worth I use a combination of weekly, daily and 5 minute charts to look for entry and exit signals / setting stops, trends, indicators, averages etc. That way I am able to build a multi-dimensional view of what a particular stock is doing and therefor my trading plan of it.

Good luck

Good Morning !

David will not be able to post the regular daily updates today. But he gave me instructions to Hold this position on SVA.

I'll just post an updated chart.

I bailed on the position I took yesterday near the 9 ema. Breakeven trade. I am not enthused by the way it's closing. I think SVA has caught a touch of the bird flu  The traders who were buying the dips to the 9 ema in days past seem to have disappeared today. Where did they go? It looks like this will be the first close below the 9 ema in three weeks. Had my finger on the "sell short" trigger but refrained. I'm thinking there might be a bounce at the open tomorrow that would present a better shorting opportunity. If I short it will probably be a quick trade (time frame: a few days). Longer term this chart is bullish.

QuoteJust watch for any breakdown below this ascending trendline tomorrow - I think that would signal a downward move.  Just my thoughts having just discovered 15 min and hourly charting  Grin

Interesting time frames for charting scottish i'd like to hear how that works out for you.

SVA's price action broke below its all time high of 6.95 today to close near yesterdays low at 6.40 which is also the beginning of the gap open. So it appears there is some resistence to not fill that gap. Tomorrow the ascending trendline stands at 6.22, a close below there and i'm bailing out. Hopefully we will see a nice rally tomorrow and get the sentiment back on our side.

-fousc

FYI 
SVA: Short Interest UP 105.0% to 256.9K in Oct 2005
Thursday , October 20, 2005 16:17 ET

According to new short interest data from AMEX, short interest for Sinovac Biotech Ltd (AMEX: SVA) INCREASED 105.0% to 256,856 shares for the month ended mid-October, 2005.

SYMBOL  SEPTEMBER         OCTOBER       CHANGE    %CHANGE      DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
SVA              125,319         256,856        +131,537      +104.96%           1

Based on SVA's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,525,930, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

Today was my first time testing it, but what I realised is that it is too difficult to use intraday charts effectively during the day if they are not realtime (well they're not for me at least).  Also, I spend far too much time pouring over my computer screen trying to figure out what the next incremental move is gonna be.  Basically, I don't think I'm ready to be a daytrader.  

I think they can be good for identifying short term moves and minor resistance/support at the open or during the day, for instance, today SVA attempted a break out of the little ascending triangle, failed, and fell through the ascending trendline, signalling it was heading south, which it did.  However, I didn't trade on it and still hold SVA.  As you mentioned, I think 6.40 should show strong support, but a break below that will signal a trend lower, at least as far as I can see it, and this would be more than I want to take.

I will post today's here, but after this I think I'll stop posting intraday charts - 3SOF is more about position and swing trades, and as David says, he doesn't consider intraday signals.  I may coninue to use them to try and identify entry/exit points, but I don't think my trading system or nerves are up for making a go of this wholesale - far too many "shoulda woulda coulda's" to handle.

Hi,
<<I will post today's here, but after this I think I'll stop posting intraday charts>>.....please reconsider!  your intraday charting is excellent & helpful.

good fortune to you...

willey

Scottish....I agree with willey: Your daily inputs - and very hard work - is appreciated!

I agree about your comment on intraday movements...usefull for trying to pick up something at a good price.
I also agree with David's thoughts of NOT looking at the intraday, as there can be a lot of movement there, causing panic. ( I'm trying to controll myself there in the panic-department! )

Keep up the good work!