3SOF

[D] Investor, thanks for the chart.  Keep posting away!

Good evening,

Dow   -133.03   (-1.28%)      Nasdaq   -23.13   (-1.11%)

As I posted before, we are in a "bearish" market trend.  If you are uncomfortable trading during this time, you can cash out and wait for the bull market return.

For those that want to stay in, today was another sales day.

Institutional/money managers once again accumulated all day long.  The volume was smaller at 4.8 million shares, but strong stocks like SVA only moved 1 million shares.  NVAX lost $0.11, but SVA lost $0.58.  We must take into account of the sectorwide and marketwide activities for today's "small" loss.

Logocovet, yes, Lycos displays Institutional and other larger money manager activities that I-Watch monitors.  If you check my previous post and table, NVAX had the  highest Institutional gain this week.  I'll post the breakdown pie chart also from now on.

Those that wanted to buy, today should have provided plenty of buying opportunities.

So what now, if you are holding NVAX shares?

I am still with the managers.  I will hold until I realize a nice gain that hits my current sell target (my initial buy in is $2.02) and buy back more shares at same $$ on dip or cash all out when I see managers selling.

Welcome back David, hope you had nice time off 

Good evening,

Dow  -133.03   (-1.28%)      Nasdaq   -23.13   (-1.11%)

As I posted before, we are in a "bearish" market trend.  If you are uncomfortable trading during this time, cash out and wait for the bull market return.

For those that want to stay in, today was another sales day.

Institutional/money managers once again accumulated all day long.  The volume was smaller at 4.8 million shares, but strong stocks like SVA only moved 1 million shares.  NVAX lost $0.11, but SVA lost $0.58.  We must take into account of the sectorwide and marketwide activities for today's "small" loss.

AussieTrader, yes, Lycos displays Institutional and other larger money manager activities that I-Watch monitors.  If you check my previous post and table, NVAX had the  highest Institutional gain this week.  I'll post the breakdown pie chart also from now on.

Those that wanted to buy, today should have provided plenty of buying opportunities.

I thought about another thing.  In addition to Lycos I-watch, what if we follow the volume ranking?  This should give you a picture as to how NVAX is doing compared to other stocks in the week/month ranking.  If the volume trails down and there is another stock that is trailing up, then that would indicate something significant.  And perhaps we should check out the stock that is trailing up.

I thought about another thing.  In addition to Lycos I-watch, what if we follow the volume ranking?  This should give you a picture as to how NVAX is doing compared to other stocks in the week/month ranking.  If the volume trails down and there is another stock that is trailing up, then that would indicate something significant.  And perhaps we should check out the stock that is trailing up.

Here's an insider buy/sell activity post from Yahoo MB.  Thanks gunboat1919!

So could it be that insiders were buying and accumulating all last week and this week also?  If it is, then this is good news!

http://insidercow.com/history/insider.jsp?Cik=0001191410&company=NVAX&name=EVANS%20GARY%20C&title=%20director

Here's an insider buy/sell activity post from Yahoo MB.  Thanks gunboat1919!

So could it be that insiders were buying and accumulating all last week and this week also?  If it is, then this is good news!

http://insidercow.com/history/insider.jsp?Cik=0001191410&company=NVAX&name=EVANS%20GARY%20C&title=%20director

  LiveLife,

         Maybe you can help me out.  I am not seeing insiders buying last week. the last date on that chart is 13 SEP 05.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4362864.stm

Roche to license bird flu drugs

Swiss pharmaceutical group Roche has asked generic drug firms to help speed up the manufacture of a key anti-viral ahead of a feared bird flu pandemic.
Demand has soared for the drug Tamiflu, which works against the H5N1 avian flu strain causing concern at the moment.

"We will have much more Tamiflu available than if Roche produced it itself," said New York Senator Charles Schumer after talks with Roche.

The firms Teva, Barr, Mylan and Ranbaxy aim to start production within a month.

'In a timely manner'

"Roche has agreed to meet with these companies as soon as possible, as early as next week, and to meet with additional companies which might also be interested in making Tamiflu," said Mr Schumer after his meeting with George Abercrombie, head of Roche's US operations.

Roche is keen to ensure the generic drug firms are able to produce sufficient quantities of Tamiflu before they grant them a license to do so.

"We want to be sure that they can produce substantial amounts of Tamiflu for pandemic use in a timely manner in accordance with appropriate quality specifications, safety and regulatory guidelines," the company said.

Demand for the drug is by far outstripping demand, even though Roche has doubled production every year for three years.

By next summer, the company will have boosted its output eightfold when compared with 2004.

Forty governments have placed massive orders to protect their populations in case the bird flu virus mutates into a form where it poses a serious threat to human health.

Companies are also placing orders to protect their workforce.



http://www.washtimes.com//business/20051020-105955-8323r.htm

The maker of Tamiflu yesterday agreed to increase supplies of the flu drug and negotiate potential production deals with four manufacturers.
    Hoffman-La Roche Inc., the Nutley, N.J., subsidiary of Swiss drug company F. Hoffman-La Roche Ltd., agreed to meet with the companies to discuss licensing Tamiflu production to meet high demand for the drug.
    Tamiflu, which is manufactured only by Roche, is considered to be the only viable drug treatment against a possible bird-flu pandemic.
    "Roche has graciously stepped up to the plate, and has essentially agreed to share its technology and the rights to manufacture this drug with other companies who are willing to help out," said Sen. Charles E. Schumer, New York Democrat, who has pressured Roche to license production of the drug to meet worldwide demand.
    Sens. Schumer and Lindsey Graham, South Carolina Republican, met with Roche President and Chief Executive George Abercrombie yesterday to discuss licensing Tamiflu production.
    "We discussed with them our previously announced intentions to meet with companies that may be able to assist in manufacturing additional supplies of Tamiflu," Mr. Abercrombie said.
   He would not say when Roche would meet with the other drug companies: Teva Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd., Barr Laboratories Inc., Mylan Laboratories Inc. and Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd.
    Roche's representatives did not return calls for comment.
    Earlier this week, Roche said it would build a new U.S. plant to increase Tamiflu production amid fears of a major bird-flu outbreak.
    Roche also agreed to negotiate "equitable terms" with companies that can produce enough of the drug to meet government demand, Mr. Schumer said.
    The federal government has about 2.3 million Tamiflu doses in storage and plans to have 2 million more by December, with the ultimate goal of stockpiling enough to treat 25 percent of the nation's population, according to the Department of Health and Human Services.
    Concern about the deadly strain of bird flu centers on scientists' fears that it may mutate into a form that passes easily among humans, sparking a pandemic that might kill millions.
    A 48-year-old Thai man became the 67th person known to have been killed by the bird-flu virus, officials said yesterday.
    All the human deaths from avian flu so far have occurred in Asia, but the lethal virus was detected this month in birds in Russia, Turkey and Romania.
    In Brussels yesterday, the European Union adopted fresh measures to fight the virus, banning live birds from markets or exhibitions without permission.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4362864.stm

Roche to license bird flu drugs

Swiss pharmaceutical group Roche has asked generic drug firms to help speed up the manufacture of a key anti-viral ahead of a feared bird flu pandemic.
Demand has soared for the drug Tamiflu, which works against the H5N1 avian flu strain causing concern at the moment.

"We will have much more Tamiflu available than if Roche produced it itself," said New York Senator Charles Schumer after talks with Roche.

The firms Teva, Barr, Mylan and Ranbaxy aim to start production within a month.

'In a timely manner'

"Roche has agreed to meet with these companies as soon as possible, as early as next week, and to meet with additional companies which might also be interested in making Tamiflu," said Mr Schumer after his meeting with George Abercrombie, head of Roche's US operations.

Roche is keen to ensure the generic drug firms are able to produce sufficient quantities of Tamiflu before they grant them a license to do so.

"We want to be sure that they can produce substantial amounts of Tamiflu for pandemic use in a timely manner in accordance with appropriate quality specifications, safety and regulatory guidelines," the company said.

Demand for the drug is by far outstripping demand, even though Roche has doubled production every year for three years.

By next summer, the company will have boosted its output eightfold when compared with 2004.

Forty governments have placed massive orders to protect their populations in case the bird flu virus mutates into a form where it poses a serious threat to human health.

Companies are also placing orders to protect their workforce.



http://www.washtimes.com//business/20051020-105955-8323r.htm

The maker of Tamiflu yesterday agreed to increase supplies of the flu drug and negotiate potential production deals with four manufacturers.
    Hoffman-La Roche Inc., the Nutley, N.J., subsidiary of Swiss drug company F. Hoffman-La Roche Ltd., agreed to meet with the companies to discuss licensing Tamiflu production to meet high demand for the drug.
    Tamiflu, which is manufactured only by Roche, is considered to be the only viable drug treatment against a possible bird-flu pandemic.
    "Roche has graciously stepped up to the plate, and has essentially agreed to share its technology and the rights to manufacture this drug with other companies who are willing to help out," said Sen. Charles E. Schumer, New York Democrat, who has pressured Roche to license production of the drug to meet worldwide demand.
    Sens. Schumer and Lindsey Graham, South Carolina Republican, met with Roche President and Chief Executive George Abercrombie yesterday to discuss licensing Tamiflu production.
    "We discussed with them our previously announced intentions to meet with companies that may be able to assist in manufacturing additional supplies of Tamiflu," Mr. Abercrombie said.
   He would not say when Roche would meet with the other drug companies: Teva Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd., Barr Laboratories Inc., Mylan Laboratories Inc. and Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd.
    Roche's representatives did not return calls for comment.
    Earlier this week, Roche said it would build a new U.S. plant to increase Tamiflu production amid fears of a major bird-flu outbreak.
    Roche also agreed to negotiate "equitable terms" with companies that can produce enough of the drug to meet government demand, Mr. Schumer said.
    The federal government has about 2.3 million Tamiflu doses in storage and plans to have 2 million more by December, with the ultimate goal of stockpiling enough to treat 25 percent of the nation's population, according to the Department of Health and Human Services.
    Concern about the deadly strain of bird flu centers on scientists' fears that it may mutate into a form that passes easily among humans, sparking a pandemic that might kill millions.
    A 48-year-old Thai man became the 67th person known to have been killed by the bird-flu virus, officials said yesterday.
    All the human deaths from avian flu so far have occurred in Asia, but the lethal virus was detected this month in birds in Russia, Turkey and Romania.
    In Brussels yesterday, the European Union adopted fresh measures to fight the virus, banning live birds from markets or exhibitions without permission.

Upgraded this morning.

*DJ RBC Raises Novavax To Sector Perform From Underperf >NVAX

10/21/2005
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

10-21-05 0803ET

Copyright (c) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Also, Nigeria Bird Flu evidence

Nigeria braces for bird flu

LAGOS (AFP) - Nigeria has sent veterinary scientists to its northern wetlands to inspect migrating birds for signs of the deadly strain of bird flu which experts fear could spark a global epidemic, officials said.

Most of Nigeria's 130-million-strong population live packed into teeming cities, its health services are in a shambolic state and experts fear that if avian flu mutates into a human disease it could trigger a devastating epidemic.

Even the current H5N1 version of the virus -- which has killed 60 people in east Asia and been detected as far away as Turkey, Russia and Romania -- could cause panic and massive disruption to Nigeria's large poultry farming industry.

"We have taken blood samples from birds at poultry farms in the country to find out if any of them have the virus, but the result is zero," Dr Lami Lombin, the director of Nigeria's National Veterinary Research Institute, told AFP.

"We are also looking at the migrating or wandering birds. From next week, we will send experts to wetlands in Bauchi, Jigawa and Yobe states to carry out tests on those birds," she added.

Wild birds from Europe and central Asia, migrating to and from southern Africa to avoid the northern hemisphere's winter, congregate in northern Nigeria to rest and feed before and after their long flight across the Sahara Desert.

Dr Junaidu Maina, deputy head of animal health at Nigeria's agriculture ministry, said that a plan had been put in place to minimise the risks of bird flu infection and to contain any outbreaks.

"We alerted all the animal health offices in the federation, particularly those in Guru wetland," he said, adding that samples from dead birds would be sent to a veterinary institute in the northern city of Jos, where they can be checked for bird flu.

Pamphlets have been prepared to warn farmers of the danger, poultry imports from infected countries will be banned and quarantine rules will be stiffened, he added.

"Most especially, in the event of an outbreak the strategy we are going to apply is to kill all the birds in an infected area in a three kilometre radius, and pay compensation," he said

se7en and poorman1, thanks for the post.  Should be an exciting day for NVAX after yesterday's "sales" day for the sector and the market.

patriotmp,

Lycos I-watch is "live" activity and it defaults to 1 day.

Change the time period to "1 week" or "1 month" and you should see the archive buy/sell activities of institutional/money manager requests and executions that I-watch monitors.

Light blue or pink are requests and solid blue or red are actually executions.  They must do this because it is difficult to move large 100K - 300K blocks of shares and they send the requests out to brokerages to "gather" enough buyers and sellers prior to executions.

Often, there are many requests, but no executions.  That indicates that either requests were cancelled or there weren't enough buyers/sellers the brokerages could gather to execute the requests.

Here's the link again:

http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nvax

Duplicate post from premiun NVAX board today:

"se7en and poorman1 thanks for the posts.  Should be an exciting day for NVAX after yesterday's "sales" day for the sector and the market.

patriotmp,

Lycos I-watch is "live" activity and it defaults to 1 day.

Change the time period to "1 week" or "1 month" and you should see the archive buy/sell activities of institutional/money manager requests and executions that I-watch monitors.

Light blue or pink are requests and solid blue or red are actually executions.  They must do this because it is difficult to move large 100K - 300K blocks of shares and they send the requests out to brokerages to "gather" enough buyers or sellers prior to executions.

Often, there are many requests, but no executions.  That indicates that either requests were cancelled or there weren't enough buyers/sellers the brokerages could gather to execute the requests.

Here's the link again:"

http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nvax

Quote from: LiveLife on October 21, 2005, 09:48:51 AM
Light blue or pink are requests and solid blue or red are actually executions. 

I have seen some dark black arrows show up lately on some views.  Any explanation for that color?

NVAX: RBC Capital Ups to Sector Perform from Underperform; Analyst Notes
Friday , October 21, 2005 07:51 ET

Issuer: Novavax, Inc. (NasdaqNM: NVAX)

Analyst Firm:  RBC Capital Markets

Ratings Action: UPGRADE

Current Rating: Sector Perform (from Underperform)


Analyst Comments: The firm based their upgrade on recently announced license and supply agreement with Esprit Pharma for NVAX's Estrasorb, a topical estrogen therapy. They think the deal was essential to NVAX because it provides the company with much needed capital.


http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.c7866aa4b8c6060149389d624153027f4debee73798d43109267a261b3ada8e4

NVAX: RBC Capital Ups to Sector Perform from Underperform; Analyst Notes
Friday , October 21, 2005 07:51 ET

Issuer: Novavax, Inc. (NasdaqNM: NVAX)

Analyst Firm:  RBC Capital Markets

Ratings Action: UPGRADE

Current Rating: Sector Perform (from Underperform)


Analyst Comments: The firm based their upgrade on recently announced license and supply agreement with Esprit Pharma for NVAX's Estrasorb, a topical estrogen therapy. They think the deal was essential to NVAX because it provides the company with much needed capital.



http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.c7866aa4b8c6060149389d624153027f4debee73798d43109267a261b3ada8e4