3SOF

My theory on today's sell off:

After such a large gain, profit taking was anticipated.  There was a sectorwide sell off today this afternoon (Avian plays all had large gains) supplemented by the current "bearish" market conditions.  This further triggered the "nervous me-too" retail traders who may have bought today and saw their value drop and sold off.

If there was a sectorwide profit taking, then the sellers will return to buy back.

Good trading!

My theory on today's sell off:

After such a large gain, profit taking was anticipated.  There was a sectorwide sell off today this afternoon (Avian plays all had large gains) supplemented by the current "bearish" market conditions.  This further triggered the "nervous me-too" retail traders who may have bought today and saw their value drop and sold off.

If there was a sectorwide profit taking, then the sellers will return to buy back.

Good trading!

Quote from: LiveLife on October 19, 2005, 02:26:29 AM
My theory on today's sell off:

After such a large gain, profit taking was anticipated.  There was a sectorwide sell off today this afternoon (Avian plays all had large gains) supplemented by the current "bearish" market conditions.  This further triggered the "nervous me-too" retail traders who may have bought today and saw their value drop and sold off.

If there was a sectorwide profit taking, then the sellers will return to buy back.

Good trading!

I believe your theory is correct LiveLife !

Just notice the volume on this second attempt at new highs - its much higher ! This means more money is involved this time to take the stock price to a higher level. More money means more power, so the breakout is almost inevitable.

A breakout of $2.57 on close gives me a short term technical target of $3.36. Stocks do not go up in a straight line and traders are nervous as LiveLife says. But since reports came out saying that Tamiflu isn't effective when the virus goes from man to man (because it mutates), speculation has started that Ampligen will indeed be needed Ampligen (R) Enhances the Effectiveness of Tamiflu Against Avian Influenza; Second Independent Preclinical Study Confirms dsRNA Increases Flu Vaccine Effectiveness .

Ampligen has been around looking for approval for many years. Perhaps the Avian Flu need will be the catalyst for the FDA to approve this fast. The news from the company saying it is expanding production capacity for Ampligen is encouraging:

Hemispherx Biopharma Signs Letter of Intent with HollisterStier Laboratories LLC for the Production of Ampligen(R)

Hemispherx Biopharma Expands Manufacturing Facility for Production of Ampligen(R); Status of clinical trial advancements for Alferon LDO and manufacturing programs updated in stockholder letter

Everything is ready for the long awaited news of Ampligen coming to the commercial drug market. The drug isn't effective just against the avian flu, its more important use is the fight against fatigue. Yesterday there was a little piece of news that was unnoticed I believe

Hemispherx Biopharma details Ampligen study data

Anyway, enough of news, the chart says «buy/hold HEB».

Here is why HEB may be one of the best Avian Bird Flu speculative plays out there:

http://www.buytamiflu.co.uk/tamiflu_against_avian.htm

Remember, Ampligen has already completed Phase III testing -- along with safety testing -- for treat of chronic fatigue syndrome.

I'll post this here too, courtesy of stocksquire:

http://www.buytamiflu.co.uk/tamiflu_against_avian.htm

Article from Roche's UK tamiflu website - suggests they may start promoting Tamiflu/Ampligen combined treatment - could get governments interested in Ampligen too

Good Morning !

Thanks ScottishTrader (and stocksquire), it looks like good news

David will not be able to post the regular daily updates today. But he gave me instructions to Hold this position on HEB.

I'll just post an updated chart.

Just to clarify, I'm sure you meant HEB...chart is correct.

Thanks, Jody.

Quote from: 422fwhp on October 20, 2005, 09:00:36 AM
Just to clarify, I'm sure you meant HEB...chart is correct.

Thanks, Jody.

Thanks Jody

Thats right, its correct now.

FYI 
HEB: Short Interest UP 129.7% to 890.6K in Oct 2005
Thursday , October 20, 2005 16:16 ET

According to new short interest data from AMEX, short interest for Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (AMEX: HEB) INCREASED 129.7% to 890,572 shares for the month ended mid-October, 2005.

SYMBOL     SEPTEMBER         OCTOBER      CHANGE     %CHANGE     DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
HEB              387,758         890,572        +502,814      +129.67%           1

Based on HEB's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,278,050, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

Thanks la-onda, the more shorts, the better, since they will add to natural demand as they buy to cover those shorts.

I'm sure Ampligen will be approved for commercial purposes by the FDA in the near future. That will make HEB stock jump ! So, regardless of Bird Flu, HEB has speculative power behind it. With just $118.77M in market cap I think this is a valid play and I will continue holding it without a doubt.

I wasn't expecting Friday's break on HEB, I must confess. But I know from my past experience trading HEB that it is an hard stock to trade (stocks have personality too), giving false short term technical signals.

So I can't trust minor technical developments for hold/sell decisions on HEB (I already did that mistake once). I need to give the stock a little more room to operate.

Probably TL1 is a good barometer, tomorrow it will be at $2.01, rising $0.031 per trading day.

david...or anyone ele following this - whats say with the chart...?

thanks 

HEB running!!!
Can someone give some TA, next resistance?

I think we just hit it - resistance around 2.66.  Steadying itself at present, BBs are starting to widen to the downside - looks like it may pull back a little from here.  But it could easily push on forward a little later once it has consolidated this quite crazy morning's gain!!

well sold last week at 2.24.  but today just realized might be mistake due that avian flu still in the news so rebought today in the 2.60's.  Hopefully I am right and will still run on potential of tamiflu other news.