3SOF

Thanks for posting the news. The news posted by aussietrader is not really news, since it is just a normal flu vaccine that everybody knew was going to be approved. This is why the stock came down after the higher open, nothing strange here.

The news posted by la-onda and defenderyou are relevant, but nothing special I believe. Just a possible partnership to make some trials on the Avian Flu.

SVA finally touched its ascending trendline as fousc said. A bit below the trendline we have the TEMA indicator that has supported SVA since July 2005.

I think SVA will rebound from these strong support levels. The trendline stands at $5.93, TEMA indicator stands at $5.58.

Quote from: fousc on October 27, 2005, 06:51:00 PM
boom boom chica boom......boom chica...... well my name is fousc and im here to say, Heres a technical breakdown of SV....A boom boom chica boom.....boom chica....

lol uhhhhhh huh....... yah tell me that was just about the stupiest thing you've ever heard. I'm little delierious after todays market action so don't mind me.

fousc,

lol.  Thanks for the laugh.

Quote
Well anyways, todays price action came down and tested the ascending trendline in the semi-log scale. Hopefully its just a retest and we won't see it drop below that line. The semi-log trendline stands 6.17 tomorrow and is rising at .074/day.

I have that trendline coming in lower than your 6.17, at about 5.75, but I find trendline data points difficult to read on the log charts.

Quote
The trendline stands at $5.93

David has 5.93, so we've got different numbers.

At any rate, SVA could have DOUBLE TROUBLE if it takes out yesterday's low 5.75, which was very close to a Hit #5 to the up trendline off the August 19 low, and it was an exact Hit #3 on the linear chart (within 0.008) to the neckline of a possible H&S Top.

Technically, RSI gave a negative divergence on the last push to 7.92, and MACD crossed below its signal line on October 21 when SVA broke below the Bump line (dark blue on chart) of a possible Bump and Run Reversal (BARR).

The heavy volume since late September also is characteristic of the highly speculative nature of the Bump Phase. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 28, 2005, 07:18:28 AM
[At any rate, SVA could have DOUBLE TROUBLE if it takes out yesterday's low 5.75,

Double support at 5.75 broke at 10:42AM.   

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1123874431937?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=5&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 28, 2005, 10:56:06 AM

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 28, 2005, 07:18:28 AM
[At any rate, SVA could have DOUBLE TROUBLE if it takes out yesterday's low 5.75,

Double support at 5.75 broke at 10:42AM.   

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1123874431937?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=5&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=&Param1=&Param2=&Param3=&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

So what do you expect? Consequences?

Maybe someone dumped a block in order to pick up cheap calls?

Well it made a nice little hammer at the support on 5-min chart at 3.45 area and so far so good..will see if it is now a bottom

http://tinyurl.com/bvatx

wrong thread metro - I think yo meant to post this on NVAX!!!

Not much vol in Calls on yahoo exp over 75 dec 7.5's

Quote from: Se7en on October 28, 2005, 11:19:57 AM
[So what do you expect? Consequences?

Se7en,

I expect the stock to have problems.  I view  that break of 5.75 as a serious
technical violation.

If SVA puts in a hammer today, or even if it went back above the trendline, I
still would sell it, right or wrong.  I won't own stocks that don't respect important
support.

ENER (see chart below), that Cumulina and I discussed the other morning, has a similar
pattern to that of SVA: the Bump and Run Reversal (BARR).

ENER broke support, put in a bullish-looking hammer (see black arrow), even got back
inside the pattern, put in another bullish-looking hammer (see second black arrow) on
Wednesday, but took out both of those lows today.

these bird flu stocks are very volatile, to volatile . Im going to stop this buy high and sell low business.  HOM, NVAX all broke support and came back much higher.  Just like AVII, when i see green on this im selling for the profits. 
I believe all this news that is coming out was forecasted and there fore not making that large of an impact.  other then that has anyone seen a company that might be stepping in over Sinovac territory. 

Quote from: puenthouse on October 28, 2005, 01:52:19 PM
I believe all this news that is coming out was forecasted and there fore not making that large of an impact. 

That reminds me of the market maxim: "When the news is great...it's too late."

In the late spring and through the summer, oil-related issues were the rage.  The price of crude oil continued to climb, but many of the stock issues topped out in early summer.

MPET, for example, rallied 300% in six short weeks, and that was it.  The rally was over.  While crude oil still is above $60, MPET nearly has had a parabolic return to where the rally began (see chart below).

NVAX, for example, has rallied 759% in the same period of time, about six weeks, that MPET rallied.

Although we will hear alot more news about bird flu and about contracts being awarded, etc., when I see a stock like SVA break serious support today, I have at least to consider the possibility that
"the news is great...but, it's too late." 

Agreed Melf Elf.

I sold out of SVA today, for a tidy loss, and I believe David will too.  I may be wrong, but SVA has nroken several support lines in the last couple of weeks, and I just don't feel comfortable with it anymore.  Also have felt overbought in bird flu plays - sure there is the possibility to make a lot on ones like NVAX and HEB, but only if your timing is right, and right now, mine's all wrong.

Better to be done with it and move on.

I just sold all of my SVA at 5.54$! 

Bought more at $5.30. I don't believe we are done with this story, though truly I wish we were. I have a very young child and this whole flu thing is hard to take. Anyway, a quote of some wise words spoken by Michael here on this thread, "just wait until they find a bird in the good old USA". Ok not an exact quote but you get the gist.

Good trading all!

nice, you bought exactly at the low of the day!

You're nothing with IF'S, maybe i can buy it back lower IF it drops next week...