3SOF

QuoteIm going to stop this buy high and sell low business.

LOL. Easier said than done, my friend. One thing I do these days when I sell a stock is examine it to see if I want to short it too. If you sell a stock because you strongly feel it's going drop more, it makes sense to short it and at least profit a little from that downside. I did that today with SIRI. I sold my long position which I'd held since mid-June for a fat $60 profit Then I took a short position. I hope it gets hammered on earnings next Tuesday like XMSR.

If you sell and go short, you have to accept the possibility it could rebound and hit you with the ol' double whammy - buy high and sell low, then sell low and buy high. When that happens you'll feel "owned" by that stock, but you have to realize it will happen sometimes.

I had SVA on my watchlist to short if it bounced at the open, which it did. Problem is by the time I woke up this morning it had already dropped to 5.50. Hard for me to get up at 0630. At this point I don't think SVA is a great short b/c I think it will bounce at the lower Bollinger band, which is currently at 4.86 but should be at 5.00 or higher on Monday. I will wait for a bounce there and maybe go long there for a quick trade, then hope to short at the top of that bounce for a nice long ride down.

I sadly sold most of SVA a 5.52 (following the crowd I guess).  I really like SVA and think they have a great future.  I will keep my eye on it next week.

I sold by Stop LMT all my SVA today, for a 15% loss. 
I didn't expect that my stop at 5.47 can hit today, but it happened. Very hard and fast break of 5.75 support.
But I still believe in SVA future, so I'll see. Maybe I'll buy at the bottom line of Bollinger Bands (4.95-5) with a strong stop under BB.   

Respect to  Melf Elf - his analysis is excellent as usual.

I have posted my two cents about SVA and NVAX on the NVAX post.   But in short, I will not tolerate another 20% loss.  I boght near the top of the last move, Which incresed my risk 10 fold than to benefit.   Inorder to be a successful trader the primary concern must be "Risk Management".  How you plan your trades and to exit if it's not working right away, say 8% stop loss in a bear market.  In a bull market you can wait it out a little longer, but this not the case with this weeks market conditions. 

I have learned and am posting for what I think is a fairly accurate way of predicting good entries and exits based on the fast and slow stoch, as long as volume keeps up.  I feel SVA has a little more faling to do before it settle down to support, perhaps near $5.  THen I will look to enter near there  and in turn have lessened my risk.

Saffeysite,

First of all, applause for your many, many fine posts that I've applauded in the past.  I read ALL of your posts, and really enjoy them.

Secondly, I'd get rid of Stochastics, but that's just my opinion.  No offense whatsoever intended, in fact the opposite: I really respect your hard work.

If you look at your chart that you posted, it gets you out at the end of August, and it doesn't get you back in on the retest of the Ascending Triangle in early September.

Stochastics, like many other indicators, is bounded by zero and 100.  In a bull trend, like SVA was experiencing, you're going to have MANY negative divergences, and things that look like sell signals.

I worked for a long, long time with Stochastics (and similar indicators).  I threw them all out.  I came to realize that they are "bounded" by the mathemetics of "zero to one hundred," and unless the stock consistently "thrusts higher," you're going to get  negative divergences.  That isn't a reason to sell in a bull trend. 

The stock can't possibily keep up that kind of "thrusting momentum," to keep Stochastics thrusting ever higher, if you see what I mean.  It can't possibly go above 100.   But, the stock still can go much, much higher on what appear to be "negative divergences," (or conversely, much. much lower in a downtrend, on what "appear to be" a positive divergences.  It isn't bullish in that later case. 

BRVO is a recent good example of the latter case.  TWO bullish divergences in MACD...but BRVO
still broke below a Symmetrical Triangle on "what appeared to be" TWO bullish divergences, and positive for the stock.  It wasn't.  BRVO went to a new print low for the move at $0.47.

Interestingly, BTW, BRVO now is "champing at the bit," poised for an upside breakout.  (I always thought that it was "chomping at the bit," like "chompiing on the actual bit...no, it's CHAMPING at the bit!).

Always something to learn, isn't there?  Again, thank you for your many fine posts, and please understand that "it's just my opinion" about Stochastics.

BRVO chart below, which I also will post on the BRVO thread.

melfelf, nice post....but IMO, stochastics could be used fairly successfully, only if one knew the timing for their holdings...swing, shor term or long term...

stochastics work brillianly provided you purchase at the low point as saffey pointed out...and then...WAIT. in a ajorty of cases, th stock will rise back up to atleast test the 50 stochastic level...if u r short term or swing trader, impatience migh force you sell it and look for th next ride, but othersie, it;s my opinion that stochastics work well.

oh, by the way...I got into SVA purely for the momentum and speculative play that all bird flu sector plays are...what do u think???

Quote from: vic666 on October 29, 2005, 10:25:57 PM
melfelf, nice post....but IMO, stochastics could be used fairly successfully, only if one knew the timing for their holdings...swing, shor term or long term...

vic666,

If Stochastics works for you, by all means use it.  My experience with it was that it "confused the issue," rather than helped me, which I wanted to share with Saffeysite in case he was experiencing something similar, per my example about the triangle re-test.

Quote
oh, by the way...I got into SVA purely for the momentum and speculative play that all bird flu sector plays are...what do u think???

For me, Friday mornings print of 5.74, below double support at 5.75, is a technical sell, especially after it rallied early to 6.18, then came down fairly quickly (support was broken at 10:42AM).

Once a stock breaks support like that, my reason for owning it no longer is valid, and I would want out of it.  What it's going to do after that is pure guesswork on my part, and wouldn't be of help to you.  My trading plan would have gone wrong, and it's time to sell.  Not honoring sell signals is how small losses turn into big losses.

As far as your trade is concerned, I only would suggest that you have a plan for a stop loss and an exit strategy for where you intend to take profits.

Good luck with your trade, vic!

Agreeance with Melf Elf on the Stochastics. When I first started trading I thought Stochs were the cat's pajamas. Now I don't even look at Stochs at all.

Melf, I always thought it was "chomping" too, but you are correct. Learning correct colloquialisms is an added benefit of a 3SoF membership!!

Champing at the bit
If someone is eager or anxious to do something, they are said to be champing at the bit, (not chomping at the bit. nor chomping on the bit).
CHAMPING: Repetitious, strong opening and closing action of the mouth which
produces sounds when the teeth hit together. Champing in swine may be a
threat signal, but also is performed by boars during courtship and
mating. Definition from Hurnik et al., 1995.

Luke Q

QuoteMy analysis was a bit biased by that $10.56 target. I know there's a psychological thrill to trade with targets, and it has style, but overall it isn't wise. The more our mind concentrates on a specific target or on something that may happen in the future, the more it stops paying attention to what IS happening now.

-- quote from David R. on the NVAX thread.

David, are you reconsidering your $25 target on SVA? I agree trading with targets isn't wise when targets are irrational (i.e. targets that require a 100%+ gains on a stocks that are up 100% already). I think targets are fine when they're more reasonable and based on implied technical targets (i.e. the target calculation for a cup and handle breakout or a target based on a rise to the top of channel or trading range).

David:

I am surprised why you did not sell SVA, as it fell below the TL2 and the other triple exponential MAV you use (TEMA) which you said was at 5.58 and moving higher last time you posted- since we are below that you have not exited? Can you share your reasons why? I am still holding SVA and would have bought more - I had a condition al rtrade on Friday to but more if SVA traded above 5.56 after it fell earlier in the day - and what's most interesting is it traded at 5.56 but not a penny higher - so it seems to be bounded on the upside by the TEMA indicator. Thoughts?

Defender

I just think everyone is selling a little bit prematurely.  Although the logarithmic charts shows that it broke support TL2, the linear chart shows that it bounced off the support TL2.
My hope is that it will rebound tomorrow.........i guess only time will tell. 

I'm also curious what David thinks about the fact that it did close below is TEMA indicator that he uses.

Thanks for all the great analysis on this SVA thread 

I really wasn't expecting SVA to break two supports on Friday's session. That happened while the market had a big rally. SVA didn't rise when all the other Bird Flu plays were rising and it didn't rise when the general market did.

The stock shows relative weakness and it broke two supports. I have conflicting information:

1) On one hand I have some fundamental analysis and reasoning that tells me this stock should be worth a lot more.
2) On the other hand I have the market saying «this stock is no good now, the trend is bearish».

From long time personal experience, I know that to achieve superior results over the long term, I should listen and respect the market, not my personal judgement on a stock's value.

I made a 66% profit in SVA in the past. Now it is time to take a 30% loss due to bad timing.

I'll sell SVA around today's open, good luck for those that will continue holding.

  David, I know you stick to a very diciplined trading plan but did you consider at least holding on to SVA through the President's speech on the Avian bird flu. I know we don't know what he is going to say, but at a minimum he will draw more attention to the issue on an executive level and officially illustrate the US's concern.   

This group basically is a story group.

Fundamentally, no earnings, high debt.

It may bounce back this week but  will be short lived.

Shawfund Quote;
October 26, 2005, 08:46:29 AM »
   
I visited SVA's headquarter today and looked at their posters and manufacturing facility.

Will add my positions today and hold it for one year unless:

1. if the stock raised too much in one or two days;
2. if the stock reached the target.

Next Quote;

Quote from: shawFund on October 31, 2005, 07:22:52 AM
This group basically is a story group.

Fundamentally, no earnings, high debt.

It may bounce back this week but will be short lived.

Wow, these are two diverging posts. Don't want to seem too critical here but with all the recent shenanigans on this board you really wonder who to trust. Sorry about singling you out Shawfund, I do follow your posts and respect your work. I am a rookie at this but I do believe the pumpers and the dumpers are seriously infiltrating recently.
That buyer beware slogan rings loud.

uc