3SOF

chek todays closing chart on SVA...tested the lower B-band yesterday; tested the near term support of 4.89 yesterday, and in both cases, held well to close ahove 5.00

and today, when most flu stocks were weak or ended down (including heb, gnbt, cbmx), SVA closed higher on decent volume.

did it break the recent downtrend after testing support? did it bottom out short term??

the ultimate oscillator also showed a positive divergence yesterday, after coming off of the 30 level...

to me, all of this suggests a trend back up to test $6.65 again, which proved to be tough resistance on two consecutive days last week.

Mr. Elf - while I too appreciate David's advice , you made on small error = you have to divide by the number of trades, which is 6. Remember David only invests a percentage of the portfolio in the trade, but an equal percentage. So the way you calculate the portfolio return of Avian flu stock performance is to equally weight each of the trades - that means you add them up to 78.6% or as I got 88% (one difference on NVAX between us which I am too lasy to check in David's closed trade list) and then divide by the numebr of trades. Think of it like this. I invested $100 by spending       16 2/3rds dollars  on each of the six trades. So I went to David's closed trades list and here it is, just like you did and redid the calculation.

Now I am not trying to bust your bubble but the actual return on David's six trades is 14.67%, not 78.62%. If the number is 78.62 as you got, the return is 13.1%, or with my figures its 14.67%.

The only way you woud get the 78.62% return is with leverage and if you could invest $100 in each of the trades!!, not just one-sixth but 100%. I think you see what I mean.

HEB: 2.50 to 3.02; gain = .52 or 21%  (you had 20.8%)
SVA: 7.75 to 5.35; loss = 2.40 or -31% (y h -30.97%)
NVAX: 2.64 to 3.6; gain = .96 or 36% (y h 26.7%)
SVA: 3.75 to 6.25; gain = 2.5 or 67% (y h 67%)
HEB: 2.27 to 1.91; loss = -.36 or -16% (y h -15.86%)
NVAX: 2.12 to 2.36; gain = .24 or 11% (y h 11.32)



That total 88% divided by 6, or 14.67%.

Now if you add in the other two AVian trades (AVII and VICL) :

AVII: 3.56 to 3.5; loss = -.06 or -2%
VICL: 4,64 to 5.02; gain = .38 or 8%

you get 11.75% return, slightly less.

Personally, thats pretty respectable  return in a month or two (how ever long) so I am far from complaining, but it is not 78.62%! which is the leveraged 6 times result. Just dont wnat to give the readers the wrong impression about how good the results really are.

Another reason that this is the right way to look at it is think of it as you are picking six trades and investing the same amount in each - then one by one you take em off and place the proceeeds in cash. Then average the results for the six trades to see what the portfolio return is: 11.75%! for a month or two. Remember if you could do that every two months that a 95% annual return, and thats not too shabby!


Defenderyou

Defender aka Eliot Spitzer, that wasn't a post that was a short story! Your math is correct though. Quick and easy way to look at it is if you had put $100 into each of the 6 trades (=$600 capital risked) you would have ended up with $678, a return of 13.1% (678/600). I think MelfElf was channeling ex-HealthSouth CEO Richard Scrushy when he overstated 3SoF earnings there!

Latest News involving SVA:  Just hold onto your SVA shares,  David maybe right, then you'll have to change the % returns.

Doctors: Bird flu patient 'will survive'

(dpa) - Health authorities expressed confidence on Tuesday that Thailand's 20th bird flu patient - a 50-year-old Bangkok woman - would survive the deadly virus because she had received swift Tamiflu treatment.

"I guarantee this woman will not die," said Thawat Sunfrajan, director general of Thailand's Communicable Diseases Department. "I am 100-per-cent confident she will survive."

Lab tests confirmed Monday night that the woman, whose name has not been disclosed, had contracted bird flu while helping her husband clean up chicken droppings in a garden in suburban Nonthaburi.

The woman, upon developing avian-influenza symptoms, was sent to Siriraj Hospital in the capital where she was immediately treated with Tamiflu, the only known effective medicine against the deadly H5N1 virus.

"Tamiflu is not a cure, but if it is taken soon enough, it will halt the spread of the virus," Dr Tawat said. He said Thailand has a stockpile of 1 million Tamiflu doses, enough to treat 100,000 patients.

Thailand has had 20 confirmed cases of humans contracting bird flu from poultry, of whom 13 have died.

Tawat said Thailand was ready to produce Tamiflu locally under licence from Roche, the Swiss manufacturer of the drug.

The government's Pharmaceutical Organization has also entered into a joint venture with China's Sinovac enterprise to produce a vaccine against human influenza, he said.

Although the vaccine would not stop the H5N1 virus, it would prevent all forms of human influenza, and, therefore, reduce the possibility of the bird-flu virus mutating into a form that could be transmitted from human to human, Tawat said.

"What the whole world is worried about is that this H5N1 will mutate into a human-to-human virus," he said.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/breakingnews.php?id=59134

Quote from: defenderyou on November 01, 2005, 06:55:41 PM
Now I am not trying to bust your bubble but the actual return on David's six trades is 14.67%, not 78.62%. If the number is 78.62 as you got, the return is 13.1%, or with my figures its 14.67%.

defenderyou,

I thought it was obvious that I was talking about just those six trades, not a 78% gain for the entire portifolio:

QuoteApplause to David for his 78.62% gain in these six bird flu-related trades.

I didn't mention anything about a 78.62% gain to the entire 3SOF portfolio. 

QuotePersonally, thats pretty respectable  return in a month or two (how ever long) so I am far from complaining, but it is not 78.62%!

That was my point.

Quote
Just dont wnat to give the readers the wrong impression about how good the results really are.

I assumed that everyone knows that David puts 6.6% of his portfolio in these trades, so it certainly wouldn't mean a 78.62% to the entire portfolio, but if anyone interpreted it that way, thanks for the clarification.

QuoteThen average the results for the six trades to see what the portfolio return is: 11.75%! for a month or two. Remember if you could do that every two months that a 95% annual return, and thats not too shabby.

Not too shabby at all.   

Quote from: Lucas Scott on November 01, 2005, 10:05:45 PM
I think MelfElf was channeling ex-HealthSouth CEO Richard Scrushy when he overstated 3SoF earnings there!

Lucas Scott,

I'm sorry that you interpret my remarks in that way.

My math might have been off a percent or two since I had to calculate the percentages on each trade separately, and I didn't bother to re-check each one, but I'll stand by my statement of what David made on those six trades, and I was clear that I was talking only about those six trades:

QuoteApplause to David fo his 78.62% gain in these six bird flu-related trades.

Melf elf, keep it up! (Applaud)

Quotebut I'll stand by my statement of what David made on those six trades, and I was clear that I was talking only about those six trades:

Melf, now you're definitely channeling Scrushy!   What you have basically just said is "1+1=4, and I'll stand by that." The cumulative gain on those 6 trades was 13%, not 78%. I know you're not talking about the portfolio as a whole. Nor am I. We are both just looking at the 6 bird flu trades. And, per the laws of mathematics, the total return on the 6 bird flu trades was 13%.

Luke Q

Can anyone help me with the TA charting on SVA today? Thanks.

Quote from: brandyjoco on November 02, 2005, 12:05:25 PM
Can anyone help me with the TA charting on SVA today? Thanks.

brandyjoco,

1. SVA found support at 4.91 on October 31, which was two cents above the October 7 low of 4.89.  That's a "possible" double bottom.

2. Look at the low on October 21.  It was 5.51.  From that low, SVA had a Bear Flag rally.  If you connect the higher highs, and the higher lows, it looks like a flag.

3. Once we broke 5.75, then broke below 5.51 (the bottom of the Bear Flag on October 21), the bottom of the Bear Flag (5.50) becomes resistance.  (EDIT: 5.51, not 5.50)

4. Yesterday, SVA rallied to 5.55, five cents above that 5.51 resistance, then the rallied failed.

5. Now, SVA is re-testing the 4.89-4.91 area again.  If that breaks, it's going to look like a "double neckline" of the Inverse H&S Top. (See second chart).  If it holds, SVA could rally to TRIPLE resistance, near $6.00 (also see second chart).

brandyjoco,

Darn it, that horizontal scroll bar appeared on the hourly chart, too.  Here's a link for easier viewing:

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

Melf Elf, really appreciate SVA TA.

Thanks (App)

Quote from: usedcasting on November 02, 2005, 03:46:34 PM
Melf Elf, really appreciate SVA TA.
Thanks (App)

usedcasting,

Thanks, I'm glad if it helps.  SVA is an interesting chart.  I've had an order in at 6.00, to short TRIPLE resistance, but SVA failed yesterday at the base of that October 21 Bear Flag. 

It's still got a chance to head up there, if 4.89-4.91 can hold.  If you look again at the hourly chart (below), MACD is well positioned.  It has double bottomed, and now is re-testing its signal line. 

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

Be careful on this one.

SVA broke Monday's low of 4.91 today, printing 4.89.  That was the October 7 low, so questionable, and it was early today.  A late day rally, it might be alright, but at 2:38PM, SVA printed 4.881, which technically, is a new low for the move.  MACD also is rolling over to the downside.  If SVA closes below 4.89, we'll have a close below that double neckline on the daily chart that I posted yesterday.

SVA currently is trying to rallying a bit, but without much success.  it needs to get out of this danger zone.  It's currently BID 2.92...ASK 2.95.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

It's currently BID 2.92...ASK 2.95.
Im sorry if im missing something, but what are you talking about?