3SOF

 

Intering from another board:

GZFX vs. SIRI vs. NFLX === Got GZFX!

SIRI O/S = 1.33 B; GZFX O/S = 1.12 B

SIRI lost money EPS = -0.62; GZFX lost money EPS = -0.03

SIRI subscribers = 2.173 M

GZFX subscribers = 10,000 and growing fast at rate of 500%.

SIRI PPS = $7.10/sh; GZFX PPS = $0.0183/sh

SIRI Cap = $9.5 B; GZFX cap = $20.3 M


Let's assume GZFX has market cap $200M or 2% of SIRI cap.

Then GZFX PPS = $0.18


SIRI...

SIRI has subs of 2,173,920 according to SEC filing. With $9.50 B capital, each sub is worth about $4,370 ($9.50B/2.173M). Each SIRI sub pays $11+/- monthly fee that is less than (or close to) GZFX sub fee (16.99).

GZFX...

Using $4,370 for each GZ sub, as of today, with 10,000 subs (not incl CC subs), GZFX cap should be around 10,000 x $4,370 = $43.7 Million. Therefore, GZFX pps = 43.7M / 1.12 B sh = $0.0390/sh. Now taking into account of CC in-store promotion, let's use 200 subs generated by each CC store, total subs by CC could be 600 x 200 = 120,000 subs. Then GZFX capital should be around 120,000 x 4,370 = $524.4 M, therefore, GZFX pps = $524.2M/1.12 B sh = $0.4682/sh

OK, now let's use Price/Sale ratio

SIRI P/S = 51.71 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SIRI)

GZFX P/S = 20.53 (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GZFX.OB)

Use SIRI P/S of 51.71 to calculate GZFX PPS

GZFX PPS = 0.0461 (51.71/20.53 x 0.0183)

The current PPS should be around $0.04/sh and next 30-90 days price should be around $0.40/sh, after that all depends on GZ subs, If GZFX subs can reach 1 Million, we know PPS should be at least 1/2 of SIRI or $3.50/sh.

NFLX....

NFLX O/S = 54.37 M
NFLX subscribers = 3.5 M
NFLX PPS = 29.25
Market Cap = 1.59 B
NFLX EPS = 0.14
Each sub = 1.59B / 3.5 M = $454/sub
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NFLX

NFLX currently has 25.90% of short interests, which are approx. 14.1 M shares. If shorts cover 14 M shares, NFLX PPS could reach 55-65 range because NFLX average daily trading volume is 1.4 M. With 10 times of average trading volume, PPS could be double or triple easily to 60 (conservative estimate). Then, market cap could be 3.2 B – 6 B. Let me use market capital of 4 B if all short interests are covered, then each NFLX subscriber may worth approx. $1142.

Now, use $1,142/sub to figure GZFX PPS. At current of 10,000 sub, GZFX market cap would be about $11.42 M, so PPS would be around $0.0102. If current GZFX subs are 20,000, then PPS would be around 0.0202. Based on current Circuit City promotion, new Xbox debut and online DVD/Game rental business booming and GZFX awareness, I guess GZFX could have 50,000 subs. If it is the case, then PPS could be around 0.051. What if GZFX has 100,000, 200,000 or 500,000 subs by the end of this year, then PPS could reach 0.51 potentially. Sorry I say 0.51 (even though I surprised myself when I touch the calculator pad). But it is mathematically correct.

Can GZFX reach 0.50 in next 6-12 month? I don't know. It depends how many subs GnF will get. But I do know GZFX can get 0.05-0.10 soon, "Very" soon. (sounds like uncle Melvin...lol)

Side Note: I didn't use NFLX to estimate GZFX PPS in the beginning because short situation with NFLX is unbelievable real and unsolvable. NFLX has been on SHO list since Feb 2006 and still on SHO list now. I have tried to test sell-short order through Ameritrade but was told shares were not available for short. However, the institution short positions still are in place, never covered, and no one (SEC) seems to care at all. NFLX short is very tricky. Any strong news could send NFLX to $100-200. If someone wants to pay 100 a share to acquire NFLX company, he actually only pay 75% cost because shorts will cover another 25%. If that happens, each NFLX sub could worth $2,500. Therefore, GZFX PPS could be much higher than 0.05. Did I mention $3.5 PPS for GZFX in the future?

I know many don't believe GZFX PPS could worth $3, $1, $0.50, $0.10, or even $0.01. I doubt myself in the beginning too. The stock markets never treat any stock at a true fair value, either overvalue or undervalue. Emotion, sentiment, market news, and human behavior drive stock price. I just want to say Trade with trend, not against it. Knowing yourself and trade in comfort zoon. Believe yourself. It's your money and you can be rich.

P.S.....Also, one can use Cable or DSL subscribe to figure GZFX each sub worth. I know some cable company pay $5,000 per sub to acquire others. (Of course monthly cable fee ($40+) is much higher than DVD rental monthly fee of $17).

Thanks seabiscuit for the post from InvestorHub MB.

I did not know Canada had 930 CC and affiliates!  I wonder if Canadian CC ads will cover GameZnFlix soon?

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=8640742

Date:11/27/2005 10:11:03 AM

Thanks , Edge , and duly noted as 630 C.C. stores in the U.S. and 930 C.C. stores and Affiliates in Canada .

Thanks rolo731 for the post from InvestorHub MB.

Date:11/27/2005 10:11:57 AM

Investwise, everyone must realise that for Circuit City this deal is a WIN - WIN situation. With the high cost of the new x-box, any avenue to lessen the cost to provide games/dvds for the consumer will be greatly appreciated. This helps CC in three ways 1)There will be more foot traffic in the stores to buy x-box's 2)It's a no brainer to let your kid try out a new game before you decide to buy it (at CC ?) 3)Add'l revenues for a service that increases customer loyalty.

Thanks shomidamoni for the post from InvestorsHub MB.

27 Nov 2005, 12:23 PM EST
   Msg. 164937 of 164943
(This msg. is a reply to 164914 by qwaisy2.)

QWAISY2, The difference between last year's Dell dude commercial and this year's CC effect on raising GZFX subscription is that, last year, GZFX was not quite ready to supply the demand of subscribers, Shipping of DVDs and games took a long time too. These subscribers were dissatisfied and eventually drop their subscription, Management has learned from this and this year. Increase of subscribers will be controlled by management so they can ensure that they can supply the demand of subscribers. Shipping is now averaging 48 hours in most places and will continue to improve in the following days due to added distribution centers. Increase of subscribers Bottomline, GZFX will increase and KEEP SUBSCRIBERS!

Thanks boofusboy for the post.

27 Nov 2005, 12:40 PM EST
Msg. 164955 of 164959
(This msg. is a reply to 164855 by tskinner71.)

tskinner71 ... with that said, a membership with GZFX is a no brainer as well (Buying stock in GZFX is the other no brainer). Compare prices to all the others. The service is great so far for my family. The method of receiving, viewing/playing and putting the disk back in the PREPOSTAGED SELF-ADDRESSED envelope to send back at GZFX's expense is a MAJOR cost savings in itself! Think about it for a moment: (This is one of my pet peeves..just mho ok?)

Summertime: I'm done with the movies. I gotta get in the car, drive 2 miles (it's hot..the traffic sux at times) to the post office. Drive the 2 same miles back. Time it takes? Oh...anywhere from 15 to 30 minutes..just to return movies/games we just saw and enjoyed.
Solution to this: Pop the Gameznflix movie/game back in the SELF ADDRESSED,PRE POSTAGE PAID by GZFX in my home mailbox and let the mailman do all the dirty work. Benefit?..Time savings. To me..money is time. Not to mention GZFX has everyone beat on price and Value.

Wintertime: I'm done with the games/movies. I gotta get all winterized dressed up. Go out to the car...wipe off the snow, scrape ice off of the windshield and windows. Start the car and turn on the defrost. Then I gotta break out the snow blower/shovel (depending on how much of the white stuff is dumped the night before or dumping at present) and clear the driveway. Drive the same 2 miles..sometimes traffic infested.
Solution to this: Pop the Gameznflix movie/game back in the SELF ADDRESSED,PRE POSTAGE PAID by GZFX in my home mailbox and let the mailman do all the dirty work. Benefit?..Time savings. To me..money is time. Here me? TIME IS MONEY!

IN BOTH situations, all I have to do his open my front door, lean over and get the disks out of my mailbox..and when I'm done put them back in. The mailman does all the work. Now that's a deal! Lazy? No...let's just say TIME IS MONEY!

You say other companies like NFLX has this same benefit? WRONG! NFLX has no games AND the price is higher to deal with NFLX. Again, there's that factor that is all important. MONEY. TIME and MONEY... things that matter. No?

Now..couple these above mentioned issues and solutions with a pps that is so cheap it is rediculous for an up and coming company that has all the makings of a solid move up on strong volume... and it has been for weeks now without let up in sight. GZFX fits the bill. ALL THE WAY AROUND!

Come on Monday! Bring it on baby!

 

Well I just got back from CC. Here is what is in there flyer on GameZnFlix. On page 34 and page 38 at the bottom of both pages. " GAMEZNFLIH ONLINE GAME & DVD RENTALS DELIVERED TO YHOUR HOME rent up to 3 at a time www.circuitcity.com/gameznflix  16.99 per month." I do not know why they put GAMEZNFLIH. I thought it would read GAMEZNFLIX.

I ask the guys in the DD area at CC. If they had ever heard of GameZnFlix. They all said NO. I then ask the manager and he said NO.  IMO that is great. ((I then talked to one guy that was part of the CC selling DVD's ect. I told him about our stock and showed him the flyer. He said that the price was very cheap. He said that it was way cheaper than what he now had. IMO he was very happy about it and I figure he might spread the word.))  No one in this area except a few have even heard of it. More customers in the wing as soon as CC goes nation wide and they buy x-box. Here is another thought. Microsoft say's they will sell 5.5 million of the x-box by June 2006. If they do. I figure that would give us at least 500,000 to 1 million new customers. The more expensive x-box has a free one month trail of GameZnFlex in it. So lets say that Microsoft paid GameZnFlix $10 per subscribtion. That would at 1 million give us for just the x-box for that one month $10 M. If all 1 million decided to get a yrs subscribtion that would give us $218M. Just some thoughts.

 

Thanks shomidamoni for the post from Raging Bull MB:

27 Nov 2005, 02:03 PM EST
   Msg. 165056 of 165059
(This msg. is a reply to 165007 by firefight4.)

Firefight4, I agree. For my fellow newbies info, GZFX Management has a vision. They realize that they will have competition, so their goal is to become the top online family entertainment business. That is why they will not restrict their services to movies, and games. Gameznflix will also provide Video on Demand direct download which is on beta testing. Also wil provide books, audio tapes and music in the future. But for now,growth on DVD and game rentals alone is huge! Baby step at a time.... We are on the tip of the iceberg...

I have read this whole thread over the past 3 days.
So, at first, I was all excited  and wanted to buy all of GZFX right away.
After I calmed down little, I was wondering if it was as good as it looked...
Now, I'm just confused  Everyone can't seem to say enough good things about that company, but is it still a good time to get in or did I miss it?

Oh, and on an unrelated matter: Scottrade will only let my place Pink Sheet order as limit order.  What is the best way to go about it? Obviously below last day's close, but a lot below or just a few 1/10 cent?

 

Here is a picture someone from another board took. It is of our company on a billboard.
Not a very good picture but you will get the idea.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sorry the picture did not come out. Will try again in a min.

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I have read this whole thread over the past 3 days.
So, at first, I was all excited   and wanted to buy all of GZFX right away.
After I calmed down little, I was wondering if it was as good as it looked...
Now, I'm just confused   Everyone can't seem to say enough good things about that company, but is it still a good time to get in or did I miss it?

Oh, and on an unrelated matter: Scottrade will only let my place Pink Sheet order as limit order.  What is the best way to go about it? Obviously below last day's close, but a lot below or just a few 1/10 cent?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IMO it is a very good stock. I myself am planning on buying 65K shares in the morning on the first pull back it has. I see it opening somewhere around .023 then moving up a little then have a small pull back to about .0225 then I will buy. I might be totally wrong and it not pull back at all. Or it might just go down at the start. I would bet my house this thing opens a lot higher Monday.  I am hoping to get in around .0225 or less. If we get a good PR no telling how high it might go and I can forget the .0225 and have to go higher. I got in at .0104 the first time. Then got some more at .0174. All I can tell you is that when you play down here anything can happen. This thing can go sky high or drop like a brick. But I feel very good about it going a lot higher. This is just all my opinion. Good luck in what ever you decide.

The picture of the billboard is in Nashville, TN. Still trying to post it.

 

Sorry, for some reason I can not post it here. It is on the allstocks GZFX board page #105 near the bottom.

Thanks dfwyatt for the link: http://photobucket.com/albums/c173/dfwyatt/

This is "In your face" promotion by Circuit City!

Will the consumer "notice" GameZnFlix?

Livana I hope this helps.

I am a "full on" swing/day trader.  By definition, I must take profit at the earliest "trendable" point, which for me, is dictated by RSI rising above 60, and certainly by 70-80 (see chart).

I anticipated profit taking on Friday with RSI above 70-80, but the bullish buying pressure was such that the price continued up.  For Monday, I also expect some profit taking, but I believe the traders that missed out on buying opportunity this holiday week along with new buyers learning about GameZnFlix will increase the buying pressure, which may overcome the selling pressure.

Just about everyone I talked to this weekend said, "if you can buy 10,000 shares for about $200, I am in and won't care what happens to the stock."  I had many that plan to buy more than $1,000 worth of GZFX to hold long term on pure "speculation."  Many know about and gained from Netflix and see GameZnFlix as the "next" Netflix.  I just reminded them to only "speculate" money they can afford to never see again.

As to my swing trading and "fractional daytrading."  After GZFX goes through another profit taking session (if the buying pressure is great on Monday, it may not happen like Friday) my next (swing trading) sell target is $0.03.  I am bought back in at $0.0175 - $0.0177 with more than 1.2 million shares (which would be around $16,000 gain).

If GZFX does take an extended price correction and trades down or sideways, I may "fractional daytrade" with 1/10 of penny equaling $1,200.

I have answered numerous emails and posts this evening about the current bullish market and GZFX taking a dive.  I am just a newbie (since July of this year) swing trader who can now daytray til noon (PST) and I am continuing to do what grabs my attention and makes me "comfortable."  There are several great stocks (I recommended HOM and PTN to my last email response), but as we continue with the bullish market trends, I will be reviewing and updating my 20-40 stocks as more and more stocks will be back on "gain" cycle, especially those stocks that trend with the market.

Why GZFX?  I like the 400-500 million daily volume and the tremendous amount of buzz and interest it has generated on the searches (#5 as of today on cnet search item with XBOX as #1) and on the message boards.  I have spent the latter part of last week and today on Yahoo CC, Raging Bull, Market Millionaire and InvestorsHub MBs and the interest is amazing!

There's even a growing "grass root" movement where stock holders are distributing GameZnFlix/Circuit City flyers (http://us.share.geocities.com/goldleader71/Golds_version.png) to spread the word about GameZnFlix online DVD/game rental service, which is lower in cost than competition services offering both DVDs and games, unlike Netflix and Gamefly.  Here's one of their sites: http://www.geocities.com/goldleader71/gzfx5.swf

Just about everyone I talked to about the XBOX 360 launch and game rental cost vs buying games agree that they would prefer to pay less and rent than to buy.  I mean, this may be the start of something much bigger than this short-term swing/day trader may believe.

So, for now, I will continue with my swing trading practice of taking profit at the next sell target or "fractional daytrade" with GZFX.  If GZFX does become profittable (I believe CEO stated that at 15,000 subscribers GameZnFlix will be profittable - they have about 7,500 now) and buying pressure continues, I may put some of my gains into mid-long term holding of GZFX.  Time will tell.  For now, I need to focus on Monday's market open.

I am still enjoying this crazy world of stock "swing/day trading" and hope to benefit others with my "transparent" trading practice documented on this MB.

You can follow my swing trading at:  http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.135

Hope you all had a nice Thanksgiving.

Good trading!

- John

I sure hope the momo on GZFX keeps on going, but a word of caution away from the hype read their recent 10-Q some interesting reading in there for sure. I have taken a section relating to potential huge share dilution which anyone holding GZFX should be aware of. That said the volume that has come in is huge (relative to history) so this is becoming a speculators vehicle for sure.
Good Luck

GZFX 10-QSB
(g)  Adjustable Conversion Price Feature of Debentures Could Require
the Issuance of Greater Number of Shares.

     The Company's obligation to issue shares upon conversion of the
convertible debentures to Golden Gate Investors, Inc. (see Liquidity
and Capital Resources, below) is essentially limitless.  The following
is an example of the amount of shares of GameZnFlix common stock that
are issuable upon conversion of the convertible debentures (excluding
accrued interest), based on market prices 25%, 50% and 75% below the
market price as of November 10, 2005 of approximately $0.01:

                               Number           % of
% Below         Price Per    With Discount    of Shares    Outstanding
Market            Share         at 18%        Issuable        Stock

25%             $0.0075       $0.0060       2,735,000,000      73.90%

50%             $0.0050       $0.0040       4,110,000,000      80.97%

75%             $0.0025       $0.0020       8,235,000,000      89.50%

     As illustrated, the number of shares of common stock issuable
upon conversion of the convertible debentures will increase if the
market price of the stock declines, which will cause dilution to the
existing stockholders.

(h)  Adjustable Conversion Price Feature of Debentures May Encourage
Short Sales.

     The convertible debentures issued to Golden Gate Investors, Inc.
are convertible into shares of Company common stock at an 18% discount
to the trading price of the common stock prior to the conversion.  The
significant downward pressure on the price of the common stock as the
selling stockholder converts and sells material amounts of common
stock could encourage short sales by investors. This could place
further downward pressure on the price of the common stock. The
selling stockholder could sell common stock into the market in
anticipation of covering the short sale by converting their
securities, which could cause the further downward pressure on the
stock price.  In addition, not only the sale of shares issued upon
conversion or exercise of debentures, warrants and options, but also
the mere perception that these sales could occur, may adversely affect
the market price of the common stock.

(i)  Issuance of Shares upon Conversion of Debentures and Exercise of
Warrants.

     The issuance of shares upon conversion of the convertible
debentures issued to Golden Gate Investors, Inc. and exercise of
warrants may result in substantial dilution to the interests of other
stockholders since the selling stockholder may ultimately convert and
sell the full amount issuable on conversion.  Although the selling
stockholder may not convert their convertible debentures and/or
exercise its warrants if such conversion or exercise would cause them
to own more than 9.9% of Company outstanding common stock, this
restriction does not prevent the selling stockholder from converting
and/or exercising some of its holdings and then converting the rest of
its holdings.  In this way, the selling stockholder could sell more
than this limit while never holding more than this limit. There is no
upper limit on the number of shares that may be issued which may have
the effect of further diluting the proportionate equity interest and
voting power of holders of the common stock.

(j)  If Stock Price Declines, the Company May Be Required to File A
Subsequent Registration.

     Based on the Company's current market price and the potential
decrease in its market price as a result of the issuance of shares
upon conversion of the convertible debentures issued to Golden Gate
Investors, Inc., the Company has made a good faith estimate as to the
amount of shares of common stock that it is required to register and
allocate for conversion of the convertible debentures.  In the event
that the Company's stock price decreases, the shares of common stock
the company has allocated for conversion of the convertible debentures
and are registering hereunder may not be adequate.  If our shares
allocated to the registration statement are not adequate and the
company is required to file an additional registration statement, we
may incur substantial costs in connection with the preparation and
filing of such registration statement.   

(k)  Repayment of Debentures, If Required, Would Deplete Available
Capital.

     The convertible debentures issued to Golden Gate Investors, Inc,
are due and payable, with 4 3/4% interest, three years from the date of
issuance, unless sooner converted into shares of common stock.  In
addition, any event of default could require the early repayment of
the convertible debentures at a price equal to 125% of the amount due
under the debentures.  The Company anticipates that the full amount of
the convertible debentures, together with accrued interest, will be
converted into shares of its common stock, in accordance with the
terms of the convertible debentures.  If the Company were required to
repay the convertible debentures, we would be required to use limited
working capital and/or raise additional funds.  If the Company were
unable to repay the debentures when required, the debenture holders
could commence legal action against the Company and foreclose on
assets to recover the amounts due.  Any such action may require the
Company to curtail or cease operations.