3SOF

When short interest goes up - what does that do to the stock price short term?

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 18, 2005, 02:12:24 PM
Breakout of the Ascending Triangle at 2:07PM, so we've now got two upside targets.  This Ascending Triangle breakout puts 7.35 IN PLAY.  We'll see if we get follow-through, but this is nice chart action, as it stands.

http://charts-d.quote.com:443/987073757410?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=AMEX:SVA&Interval=60&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=9

The 7.35 target MADE at 10:01AM

Quote from: brandyjoco on November 22, 2005, 09:02:58 AM
When short interest goes up - what does that do to the stock price short term?

brandyjoco,

It helped us to get all three of our upside pattern targets that we identified.  When a stock is as bullish as SVA is, the shorts are under serious pressure.  They are forced to become BUYERS of the stock, in order to cover their shares that they sold short.

So, in addition to the bulls who are buyers, we also have bears who are forced to beome buyers, as well.  They don't want to be buyers, but they are forced to buy, in order to cover their short postion.  Lots of buyers, which helps to send the stock higher.

If anyone shorted SVA, say at 5.00, back when it was testing key support, at today's target of 7.35 they have a "paper loss" of 47% which, of course, is painful, and it puts them under tremendous pressure to buy.  If the stock goes higher from here, their losses become much worse.

You don't want to short a stock that is in an uptrend, especially one like SVA, that recently has enjoyed repeated upside pattern breakouts.

"Don't fight the trend."

Melf - good call on the 7.35 target. Seems like bears are taking back control now. I am exiting my position.

I'm out also ...

Quote from: Lucas Scott on November 22, 2005, 03:40:02 PM
Melf - good call on the 7.35 target. Seems like bears are taking back control now. I am exiting my position.

LukeQ,

Thanks.  We've made 3 upside targets, so it looks like some profit-taking has set in. 

See the blue horizontal line on the chart?  That was another upside breakout, at about 6.50.  Looks like we're re-testing that, after the 7.35 target got made.

All was well with most of my stock, so I took some time off from the computerscreen.

Had a nice walk on the beach with my 6 month old dog, who found all kinds of good stuff to roll himself in. 

Came back and checked my account... WOW!

What happened?

I haven't seen that kind of action on stocks since the terror-bombings in London!

I really hope that drop today around 3pm. was just temporarely manipulation, and that it'll right itself again this or next week.

Was this the "big boys" going for the stop-losses?

I can see no news other than all the good stuff coming out about fast-track etc.

Now I'm biting a nail or two...

Since my first post on this thread about the break of of DOUBLE support at 5.75 on October 28, we've had four opportunities to exit SVA with a profit: at that break of 5.75, and then at each of the three upside targets that MADE, most recently, yesterday's 7.35 target.

"Plan your trade...and trade your plan" - Frederick Ramsburg

"Fail to plan...plan to fail" - fill_the-gap (Jeff)

The reason that I go to such length in my posts (when time permits) regarding support/resistance levels, patterns and targets, risk: reward ratios etc. is to help us understand the trade: why we're taking the trade...what is our expectation for the trade...where is our stop loss, etc...

With that kind of understanding, we're not sitting in a trade without any idea of what we're doing.

Yesterday's candlestick demonstates why I say, "It's a good idea to take profits when targets are MADE."  From the 7.34 target, SVA sold off about 10% into the close, so if you sold at the target, and re-entered at the close, you saved ourselves that 10%.

Often, it doesn't work out that way, and the stock goes higher, but "you aren't going to get hurt taking a profit."  When we see it go higher after we sold it, we tend to say "Coulda... shoulda...woulda" made MORE money if I held, but the other side of that coin is what we saw yesterday; a pretty good selloff.

Taking profits as targets get MADE helps us with the "fear/greed" principle that always is at work.  When our stock isn't going up, we fear that we'll lose money.  When it does go up and makes a target, the greed factor tends to set in, and we want MORE money.   

Just some Trader To Trader (T2T) discussion, if it helps anyone.

from yahoo SVA board:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=sva,uu[g,a]dhclyyay[dc][pc20!c50!c200!i!f][vc60][iul14!ub14!uah12,26,9!ua12,26,9!li14,3!lh14,3!lp14,3,3!lp5,3,3!le12,26,9!ld20!lyb20,2.0!lc20!lk14!lya7,14,28!lf!lg!lh45,17!lv25!lw25][j57658942,y]&listNum=1

 

Sinovac steps up hunt for flu jab
By Andrew Yeh in Beijing
Published: November 28 2005 02:00 | Last updated: November 28 2005 02:00

Sinovac Biotech, a medical company backed by the Chinese central government, is stepping up efforts to produce a human avian flu vaccine, called Panflu, for an emergency national stockpile, its top executive said.

Managing director Yin Weidong told the Financial Times that Sinovac would be capable of producing mass quantities of Panflu on just a few days' notice once Beijing approved the vaccine.


http://news.ft.com/cms/s/8893fc8e-5fb3-11da-a628-0000779e2340.html

short interst link (more detailed):
http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?PHPSESSID=97600785f06345a569dd309f95897980&symbol=sva&submit=Enter

Bought SVA at 5.65, near the 50DMA.  At today's low of 5.62 at 1:30PM, SVA is down almost 25% off the recent high of 7.44.

I like that entry Melf Elf, looks like we may have a bit of a symmetric triangle forming.  I may join you tomorrow, provided it does not look like it will go below 5.55.

A friend was telling me tonight about a site called tradesports.com, a stock market-like exchange for betting on sports and other things. I was checking it out and saw that one thing you can buy or sell is a bet on whether a case of Asian bird flu will be confirmed in the U.S. 

The bid-ask on a bird flu confirmation by March 31, 2006 was 34.0x36.4. The payout is $100. So basically (if I understand it correctly) you could pay $36.40 for a contract and, if a case of the H5N1 bird flu was confirmed by 3/31/06, you could sell the contract for $100. OR you could sell a contract for $34.00 and pocket the premium if no case were reported by 3/31/06. If a case was confirmed, you would have to close your position by buying back the contract for ~$100.

Just thought I'd share. I doubt we get a bird flu case here anytime soon. I'm tempted to open an account and sell a few of those contracts.

Quote from: ScottishTrader on November 29, 2005, 08:44:43 PM
I like that entry Melf Elf, looks like we may have a bit of a symmetric triangle forming. 

Scotsman,

SVA closed at 5.61, within a penny of the 50DMA, at 5.62. 

Below that, we've got the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) which could provide support.  It comes in today, November 30, at 5.485.

Below that, the trendline (dark blue line) off the mid-August low comes in today, November 30th, at 5.40.  That isn't a validated trendline (there are only 2 "hits"), but I'm going to use a close below that as my stop, to limit my risk on the trade to about 5%.