3SOF

HEB had a pretty nasty decline on Friday, so much for letting the profits run 

Here I will also trust insiders and will give some more flexibility than just my buying price, which was $2.38.

HEB is also stuck in a symmetrical triangle pattern, with the ascending trendline coming today at $2.29 and the descending one at $2.57.

I'll continue holding, unless it is set to close below $2.29.

HEB is coming dangerously close to my safety net (ascending trendline), which for today stands at $2.30.

There was an article on Fox News yesterday that mentioned HEB, it is an interesting read:

Bird Flu, Part II: Do Antivirals Give Us a False Sense of Comfort Against Pandemic Flu?

I bought 3 stocks in the same group, which were NVAX, HEB and AVII. At this time, HEB is the loser, so I should be inclined to sell it.

The plan is simple, if HEB is set to close below $2.30 today I'll sell it, if not I'll continue holding it.

Sometimes I forget what companies do:

«The Company is in the process of preparing a New Drug Application (NDA) with respect to its investigational therapeutic, Ampligen(R), which has completed a pivotal Phase III trial in the potential treatment of CFS. The Company has also recently announced a broad range of clinical initiatives with respect to potential prevention and treatment of avian influenza which involves both Ampligen(R) and its approved biotherapeutic, Alferon N. Recently, at a meeting organized by The World Health Organization and other international agencies, experts have recognized that in order to immunize the maximum number of people, vaccine doses would have to be used with immunity-boosting substances that would make the application more effective. The clinical initiatives involving Ampligen(R) and Alferon N Injection(R) may validate efficacy as an immunity-boosting adjuvant.

When will this Ampligen thing be approved for sale?

I don't know, but I know insiders have been buying and the company is getting ready for mass production:

«Hemispherx Biopharma recently disclosed they entered into a collaboration with HollisterStier Laboratories of Spokane, Washington, for the contract manufacturing of Hemispherx's experimental drug, Ampligen(R). The achievement of the initial objectives, in combination with the Polymer production facility under construction in New Brunswick, N.J., will enable Hemispherx to significantly increase production capacity.»

The downside risk doesn't seem to be high at this point, with $128M market cap and a drug with a Phase III trail completed. Loss from operations has also been lower than year ago levels.

I want to know more about biotech companies, specifically more about the way to value them. So I'll do two things:

1) Keep on holding HEB for some more time, so I can apply my study to it;
2) Order these books:

a) The Biotech Investor's Bible
b) The Biotech Investor: How to Profit from the Coming Boom in Biotechnology

HEB is the weakest of my 3 small biotech plays (NVAX +16%, HEB +1%, AVII +17%), but we're just at levels an insider bought shares about a week ago and I don't see much downside risk at this point.

Maybe HEB is week because NVAX and AVII are being fueled by legit expectations of government funding and HEB isn't. HEB is more of an Ampligen play.

I'll continue holding and waiting for a rally in HEB.

HEB seems to bounce on the technical as well as with this sec filing:

9-Dec-2005

Entry into Material Agreement

Item 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement.
We recently completed our negotiations and executed a Supply Agreement with Hollister-Stier for the production of Ampligen(R) for a five year term. Pursuant to the agreement, we will supply the key raw materials and Hollister-Stier will formulate and bottle the Ampligen. We have agreed to pay a one time start up fee and will provide funds to acquire certain equipment dedicated to Ampligen production.

Here is HEB 3 month chart:

Looks to me that HEB can be this week's bird flu leader in advance!

HEB filed an 8-K filing with the SEC yesterday saying this:

«We recently  completed our  negotiations  and executed a Supply  Agreement  with
Hollister-Stier for the production of Ampligen(R) for a five year term. Pursuant
to the agreement,  we will supply the key raw materials and Hollister-Stier will
formulate and bottle the Ampligen. We have agreed to pay a one time start up fee
and will  provide  funds to acquire  certain  equipment  dedicated  to  Ampligen
production.»

Definitely Ampligen will be approved soon for commercial purposes from the SEC. I'll continue holding the stock, waiting for the big news. In the meantime, as always, I'll update the analysis with new information every day.

The news was released at 14:56 so probably that was what fueled the 8.75% rise the stock had on Friday. I'm expecting the bull run in HEB to continue today.

Let's see what comes out of this: Hemispherx Biopharma to Present at the New York Society of Security Analysts 9th Annual Healthcare Industry Conference; New Influenza Treatment / Prevention Initiatives Introduced

The Conference is on Thursday, I can wait and hold until there and possibly beyond. Maybe some buying interest comes out of this. Also thinking insiders were buying shares near current levels tells me probably the talk will be positive.

 Maybe HEB will get a little boost today from the news release:

Press Release Source: Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc.


Hemispherx Highlighted in Study of Innate Immunity as a Defense Against Bio-terror Threats
Tuesday December 13, 9:11 am ET 
Ampligen(R) and Alferon(R) Featured in the December 2005 Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology


PHILADELPHIA--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 13, 2005--Hemispherx Biopharma, Inc. (AMEX: HEB - News) announces that research published by an academic consortium led by The National Defense University (U.S.A.) in the Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology (JACI) (December issue) titled "Innate Immunity for Biodefense: A Strategy whose Time has Come" have found that Hemispherx products Alferon N® and Ampligen®, are among a small pool of agents that stimulate innate immunity for the defense against a bio-terror attack. The study concluded that an adequate defense would require a broad-spectrum approach to combat deadly pathogens, such as the H5N1 virus. Alferon N® and Ampligen® have shown the greatest ability to stimulate the innate immune system (also called "the first line of defense") therefore providing the best opportunity to fulfill this requirement.
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According to the authors, in the event of a bio-terror attack, an immediate and efficient response is required to save lives. Due to the continuous mutation of deadly agents used in bio-terror, vaccines are limited by the inability to predict the infectious pathogen, resulting in an inherent immune response delay that renders it inadequate for protection from a bio-terror attack. The JACI study demonstrated that in order to combat this, an agent that produces a broad-spectrum approach, like Alferon N® and Ampligen®, is required to combat the wide range of deadly pathogens that could be used in a bio-terror attack.

Innate immune cells use pathogen recognition receptors to recognize infectious pathogens and promote a rapid response against them. Toll-Like Receptors (TLR) have been identified as the key pathogen recognition receptors in innate immunity. Ampligen® (polyI polyC12U), a synthetic double stranded RNA, induces Toll Like Receptor-3(TLR3) which studies show result in the greatest increase of innate immunity over other compounds tested to date. Ampligen® has already been tested against more than 25 viruses and will be used in Advanced Biosystems proposal for inhaled interferon in conjunction with Alferon N®. Alferon N®, a natural interferon, utilizes a broad-spectrum antiviral approach and offers various binding affinities that yield greater antiviral activity. Another company mentioned in the study, Coley Pharmaceutical Group, is working with Harvard University in a program which also utilizes Ampligen®. The Harvard synergistic platform combines a Coley product and double-stranded RNA, Ampligen®. Both Alferon N® and Ampligen® have a generally well tolerated safety record and have shown no evidence to date of the inflammatory reactions shown in other innate immunity combinational studies.

Alferon LDO (Low Dose Oral)(TM) was also noted on the basis of animal studies that suggest that oral interferon might be active at much lower doses than when administered parenterally. "It is expected that oral doses will be 1000 times lower than those already FDA approved for parenteral administration."

Hemispherx's products have recently attracted attention from companies and governments looking for therapeutics to use as an adjuvant with their products for the defense of avian influenza. The Defence R&D Canada - Suffield (DRDC), an agency of the Canadian Department of National Defence, has recently signed a contract to evaluate the antiviral efficacy of Ampligen® and Alferon N® for protection against the human respiratory influenza virus infection. In addition to the DRDC Suffield collaboration, Hemispherx is also engaged in broad-based ongoing experimental studies assessing the efficacy of their products Ampligen®, Alferon N® and Alferon LDO(TM) as an adjuvant or single agent antiviral with the National Institute of Infectious Diseases in Tokyo, the Princess Margaret Hospital in Hong Kong and various research affiliates of the National Institutes of Health in the United States.

Alferon N® is already commercially approved for another major viral infection, chronic refractory HPV, and Ampligen® has recently completed Phase III clinical testing for Chronic Fatigue Syndrome.

It was strange there wasnt a big boost off of the news today.  I guess all the money was going to NVAX today? 

Quote from: tokyopua on December 13, 2005, 06:54:41 PM
It was strange there wasn't a big boost off of the news today.  I guess all the money was going to NVAX today? 

Well, it was just a study ... a positive one, but just more expectations, not facts.

NVAX is doing very well, I don't want my weaker plays to damage performance. Therefore I'll set a simple trading plan that doesn't allow HEB to fall much further (my books didn't came yet and I won't learn from them in useful time) and still lets me in if the stock advances.

I'll continue holding HEB for as long as it is set to close above the ascending trendline, today at $2.36.

The ascending trendline on HEB at this point is already at $2.39 and my purchase price was $2.38. So, unless there's a big 1 day cut of the trendline or bad news for it to gap down, I won't lose significant money on this trade.

Yet, the upside potential is still there.

The plan is to hold HEB for as long as it is set to close above the ascending trendline, which for today stands at $2.39.

I'm still holding and I'm tired. If the stock is set to close lower today I'll sell it without regrets. If not I'll continue holding.

The market has the word now, of my three bird flu picks this one is failing to perform, so I'll let it go if the market says I should.

what to say about IT
Could it  be Bullish ??

Aboutwhat I say...they have great product to fight avian flu....cheap now...waiting for FDA's approval....Ampligen= against avian flu= against C.F.S.....

Give me an idea about the company...
Thanks 

FYI

This stock is tremendously pumped in Belgium - I think half of the shares are sitting there, really and this pumping is going on for about 5 years...
I don't have a position in it, but many coutrymen do 

GL

What about heir product....could it run

Ampligen...FDA...what's on ??
There are to much time  they're waiting for FDA....could it be
Or just lying ?