3SOF

NVAX is regrouping below the 4.33 neckline break of the H&S top.  Yesterday's high was 4.29, slightly below it.

Broke 4.04 support.  NVAX cuirrently is BID 4.00...ASK 4.01.  We might get to that QUADRUPLE support at 3.88-3.94 after all.

NVAX has been trading around 4.00 all afternoon.  I've was thinking that if we didn't get the awaited tank to QUADRUPLE support at 3.88-3.94, maybe I ought to go ahead and buy it.  I also thought that the second I did, that, it would tank.

Instead, it just took off to the UPSIDE...4.38, so far. 

Bought NVAX at 4.20, on the pullback to the 4.19 buy pivot (Wednesday's high was 4.18, so yesterday's print of 4.19 was a "buy," but it zoomed through there too fast for me).

I had to" pay up."   We came so-oo close to the 3.88-3.94 QUADRUPLE support area (the low was 3.98), but that's the breaks.



NVAX currently is BID 4.22...ASK 4.23

NVAX spent Friday consolidating the 10% gain on that inexplicable 8-minute burst from 4.00 to 4.39.  Don't know if there was any news.

   

NVAX is beautifully positioned for another rip to the upside.  It's the type of chart that puts me in mind of "First the chart....then the news" meaning that if any good news at all come out, this chart already was telegraphing that it was "good to go,"

Very nice structure:

1. The Ascending Triangle breakout on December 9.

2. The Double Bottom at the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud)  December 22 & 30.

3. The current Symmetrical Triangle formation.

4. The positioning of the stock at the top of the Kumo (Cloud), ready to take off "above the Cloud."

5. QUADRUPLE support at 3.88-3.94, which might explain the "inexplicable" 10% 8-minute rally on Thursday.  NVAX got only to 3.98, hung around the 4.00 level for quite awhile with players in a pack knocking elbows to see if it was going test QUADRUPLE support, and then...BANG...a bust out of the pack rally, with players scrambling to get into the chase.

Very bullish looking chart, which is why I was willing to "pay up" for it at 4.20 on Friday, on the pullback to Wednesday's 4.19 buy pivot (they completely smoked me when they busted out of the pack on Thursday...it happened so fast, I missed it). 

This one is NVAX's to lose.  Could happen, of course, but as it stands, the chart looks higher.

Melf Elf
Your work on this stock and many others is greatly appreciated. I'm with you on this one. Right or wrong your work has just received an applause from me.
Mike

Quote from: 1reilly on January 28, 2006, 09:39:37 AM
Melf Elf
Your work on this stock and many others is greatly appreciated. I'm with you on this one. Right or wrong your work has just received an applause from me.

Mike,

My posts tend to be long and too technically detailed for most people (understandably...we all have a lot to read), so knowing that my work is helpful to some is appreciated.  Thanks very much for the feedback.

If we don't make $$$ on this one, we will on other stocks when we play this type of chart.  We've got multiple patterns, multiple validations of support.  Percentage-wise, those are going to be winners.

Thanks again, Melf - for your hard work.  I don't understand about the clouds but it is helpful to see your charts.  I don't have NVAX - all my money is tied up and my husband doesn't want me to use margin.... Though I may be able to talk him into a daytrade.

Since the 8-minute rally from 4.00 to 4.39 on January 26, NVAX has been forming another bull flag.  The area of the broken H&S top is from 4.33-4.78, just overhead. 

These two bullish patterns give the chart some strength, to start attacking that resistance.

Quote from: Melf Elf on February 02, 2006, 09:21:44 AM
Since the 8-minute rally from 4.00 to 4.39 on January 26, NVAX has been forming another bull flag.  The area of the broken H&S top is from 4.33-4.78, just overhead. 

These two bullish patterns give the chart some strength, to start attacking that resistance.

Scroll up and look and that last chart, and then look at this one.

The darned thing "morphed" into a Bear Flag and a Bearish Gartley, which I'll show you in the next post.

My concern about the Bear Flag is that it could be an A-B-C corrective rally of the leg down off the H&S top.  In other words, the Bear Flag rally only is "correcting" the decline, by rallying, and if that's the case, there's more downside to come.

Recall that, on the way down from the broken neckline of the H&S top at 4.33, we were looking for NVAX to come down into QUADURPLE support at 3.88-3.94.

The low was 3.98, then NVAX went on that 8-Minute "Screamer" to the upside, to 4.39.  My view was that the stock was "committed" on the upside.  In other words, with a strong move like that, it's "telling" us to forget about 3.88-3.94.  The stock is "gone" on the upside, which is why I was willing to "pay up" for it at 4.20 on the pullback.

The initial rally off the low was from 3.98 to 4.39, or 0.41 points.  The pullback after the "Screamer" to 4.39 was to 4.10.  "If" NVAX rallied an equal amount of points, 0.41, from the 4.10 pullback low, that would be a rally to 4.51.

4.10 + 0.41 = 4.51.

What we didn't want to see is a rally that ended at 4.51, because then we're looking at the possibility of a completed Bearish Gartley, on the heels of that H&S Top.

The rally ended at 4.49.  YUK...

The bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle (bold purple) will come in on Monday, February 6 at 4.10, which  also is the low of the right side of that Bearish Gartley.  That definitely will be my stop if I stay in.

I'll give it some more thought over the weekend.     

Sorry, that was the wrong chart, but I'll leave it up.

NVAX is called higher, at BID 4.28...ASK 4.30.  If it starts sliding back toward my 4.20 entry, I'll sell.  The short-term H&S Top, Bear Flag, and Bearish Gartley have me in too much doubt.

Sold NVAX at 4.25.  Gain: 1.2%