3SOF

VPHM looks very well positioned to attack the long-term (4-year) high of 24.36.  It has built a nice base in the 19-21 range and it looks like it might be breaking out of the upward channel its been in since about mid November.  I think it'd be set for a run to about 30, with earnings coming up soon. 

Also, everyone remembers VPHM, so once it breaks out I can see a lot of volume coming in.  I'm not sure what David's saying about this, anyone else have an opinion?

Quote from: Michael on January 30, 2006, 12:18:02 PM
Hi David,

It seems to me (as said repeatedly in this thread) that the analysts always leave room for the next upgrades every time the upgrade VPHM (now that sounds strange but I hope you get the meaning!).

Vancocin sales are just out and the market likes what they see. VPHM is poised to blast through the analysts estimates with this kind of growth 

Can't help loving this baby 

Thanks for the info Michael, but where do you get that Vancocin data? I can't find it anywhere ... thanks 

Anyway, VPHM did close above $21.69 and the way to $24.36 is clear. I'll continue holding the stock as I wait for info on Vancocin from Michael.

Hi David,

Good Bless IRC on the Yahoo MB. He posts them every month. The December figure was around 15 million. The forecast for revenue in Q4 is 36.6 million.

Mike

Quote from: Michael on January 31, 2006, 06:27:57 AM
Hi David,

Good Bless IRC on the Yahoo MB. He posts them every month. The December figure was around 15 million. The forecast for revenue in Q4 is 36.6 million.

Mike

Thank's a lot Michael 

Here's irc203 post: Monthly Sales!

Yes, revenue estimate is $36.6M, and VPHM did $15M in December alone. Do you have irc203 posts of November and October? That way we would have the correct revenue number, right?

Have you tested his information in the past? I wonder how he gets such valuable info? Perhaps he works on the pharma industry ...

Live and learn, thanks again Michael ! (applaud)

tihs website is based on irc203 numbers:
http://www.jh.b.ms/

regards
O.

As far as I know, IRC203 paid for obtaining the data. it might be $1500/month or per year.

Thanks for the info la-onda and winner919 

From la-onda's link, I figure 4th quarter revenues as $38M, against expectations of $36.6M. Yet, EPS estimates came down over the last 30 days, which is a bit odd.

VPHM certainly has the power to surprise on the upside. I'll continue holding.

Sold VPHM for 12.7% gain in 2 weeks. 

Money moved to INSM at 2.40.

The decline in EPS maybe be because the nubmer of outstanding shares increased in Dec of 05. I believe a secondary offering resulted in 7million extra shares.

Quote from: kman on February 02, 2006, 01:34:02 PM
The decline in EPS maybe be because the nubmer of outstanding shares increased in Dec of 05. I believe a secondary offering resulted in 7million extra shares.

Yes, probably it was that, thanks for the info kman 

That may also explain why analysts expect revenue growth for 2006 of 30% and EPS growth of only 6.8%. It is a good thing such dilution is already expected, this way the company has the power to surprise on the upside, if it doesn't dilute earnings at all.

We'll see ... I'll continue holding VPHM.

Quote from: David Randolph on February 03, 2006, 06:19:46 AM

Quote from: kman on February 02, 2006, 01:34:02 PM
The decline in EPS maybe be because the nubmer of outstanding shares increased in Dec of 05. I believe a secondary offering resulted in 7million extra shares.

Yes, probably it was that, thanks for the info kman 

That may also explain why analysts expect revenue growth for 2006 of 30% and EPS growth of only 6.8%. It is a good thing such dilution is already expected, this way the company has the power to surprise on the upside, if it doesn't dilute earnings at all.

We'll see ... I'll continue holding VPHM.

David,
First time posting on 3stocksonfire...just thought I'd comment on why analyst are showing EPS decreasing to $.25 for 1st qtr '06.  Assuming $38.7M in vancocin revenue for the 1st qtr, VPHM will do about $.32 EPS even with the additional 10.4M new shares.  Regarding the low 1st qtr EPS forecast, I believe the analyst are expenseing the $4.5M VPHM agreed to pay Lilly in case C-Diff became an epidemic in '06 and they needed more production of the drug.  I believe Viropharma will capitalize this cost as part of the acquisition of Vancocin and thus no real impact on EPS.
I follow this company very closely and I can tell you for a fact the $1.10 the analyst are forecasting for '06 is grossly understated and I'll tell you why.  Currently, the past 6 months scripts for vancocin are running over 30% higher than the prior year month.  On top of this many followers think a large price increase (20-25%) in vancocin will be announced any day now.  (I've talked to the company directly about this possibility and they've told me they are well aware vancocin is still underpriced compared to other life saving durgs).  The company now has about $175M in cash with no debt, so you can expect an announcement soon of a drug or company acquisition.  Along with these positives there will also be an announcement in the 1st qtr '06 of their durg Maribavir, going into phase III testing.  Given these developments along with the development of their Hepititus C drug, there is much upside to this story.
I personnally believe we will see this stock appreciate to $35 or more this year.  Insiders are still buying...last one at $21...so they believe there is upside.  Best of luck to all of you and... thanks David for your keen technical insight.

Very conscise JR, applaud. I agree with your thoughts and would only add how much I have learned about how market makers, rumors, fear and greed have effected the swings in this stock. It's amazing to watch. I have remained 5k long in it since June. Don't let them shake you out.

Quote from: tommyt on February 03, 2006, 10:59:00 PM
Very concise JR, applaud. I agree with your thoughts and would only add how much I have learned about how market makers, rumors, fear and greed have effected the swings in this stock. It's amazing to watch. I have remained 5k long in it since June. Don't let them shake you out.

tommyt, its been a loooonnggg time  Nice to see you ! Don't worry, I won't let them shake me out, I'll continue holding to enjoy the story as it unfolds.

jrtabor, thanks a lot for this usefull information 

Quite a team we have here ...

Technically the stock came down to test the $21.69 support, prior resistance. I'll continue holding it whatever happens over the short term.

fun today:

FDA Grants Fast Track Status for ViroPharma's Maribavir for Prevention of Cytomegalovirus Infection
Tuesday February 7, 7:30 am ET

EXTON, Pa., Feb. 7 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ViroPharma Incorporated (Nasdaq: VPHM - News) today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted fast track designation for maribavir, an oral antiviral drug candidate for the prevention of cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection in allogeneic bone marrow (stem cell) and solid organ transplant patients. ViroPharma completed enrollment in a Phase 2 study of maribavir in recipients of bone marrow (stem cell) transplant in November 2005, and expects to release the preliminary data from the trial by the end of the first quarter of 2006.
"There is an unmet medical need for improved treatments for the prevention of cytomegalovirus infection and disease in transplant patients due to the limitations of current therapies, which include potential bone marrow and renal toxicities," commented Colin Broom, M.D., ViroPharma's chief scientific officer. "Fast track designation is an important step in accelerating our efforts to provide a much-needed therapeutic option for these patients. We look forward to working closely with the FDA throughout the process."
An important feature of fast track designation is that it emphasizes the critical nature of close, early communication between the FDA and the sponsor company with the goal of improving the efficiency of product development. Under the FDA Modernization Act of 1997, fast track designation may potentially expedite the review and accelerate approval of a drug that is intended for the treatment of a serious life-threatening condition and demonstrates the potential to address an unmet medical need for such a condition.
Maribavir is a potent and selective, orally bioavailable antiviral drug with a unique mechanism of action against cytomegalovirus and a favorable early clinical safety profile. It is a potent member of a new class of drugs called benzimidazole ribosides. Unlike currently available anti-CMV agents that inhibit CMV DNA polymerase, maribavir inhibits viral DNA assembly and inhibits egress of viral capsids from the nucleus of infected cells. Maribavir is active in vitro against strains of CMV that are resistant to commonly used anti-CMV drugs.

CMV is a member of the herpes virus group, which includes the viruses that cause chicken pox, mononucleosis, herpes labialis (cold sores), and herpes genitalis (genital herpes). Like other herpesviruses, CMV has the ability to remain dormant in the body for long periods of time. Human CMV infection rates average between 50% and 85% of adults in the U.S. by 40 years of age, but in healthy adults causes little to no apparent illness. However, in immunocompromised individuals, CMV can lead to serious disease or death. Patients who are immunosuppressed following hematopoietic stem cell (bone marrow) or solid organ transplantation are at high risk of CMV infection. In these patients, CMV can lead to severe conditions such as pneumonitis or hepatitis, or to complications such as acute or chronic rejection of a transplanted organ. While currently available systemic anti-CMV agents are effective against the virus, their use is limited by toxicities, most notably bone marrow suppression and renal impairment.