3SOF

applaud 1reilly, I am too fighting the battle of bulge. Will intend to regularly visit your thread and may post things related to that. Appreciate the effort.

Just to evaluate some alternate methods to DIET I would be on diet for next 30 days using commonly available stuff [like diet pepsi, apples, oranges, subway sandwich etc..] and will post the progress, cost and results on my diary at STOCK TALKING BOARD. In most probability I may not be doing any exercise, though would do some light walk over weekends.

On Diet Feb 4 to March 4.

Quote from: 1reilly on February 04, 2006, 12:05:44 AM
Michael
when you posted today that you were in, I doubled up. Diana and I have decided to be the trial group for 3stocks on fire for Diets. We're not kidding we will communicate to this board  how we have ordered this food, how it was delivered.and what we eat each day. We will start this endevour sat AM 

Hi Reilly

I will be a regular at your and Diana's thread. I hope the first mail will include a before picture so we can judge the effect!

On a serious note a lot of us are investing in pharmaceautical companies but if you drill down a lot of the market for the drugs are generate from the simple fact that people have a very unhealthy lifestyle.

I am invested in CTE, BNT, ANGN and AMLN. All these companies are earning money treating the symptoms of overweight.

DIET doesn't treat the symptom but the root of the problem (so does ANGN) to me it seems to be a much better approach to the health issues facing the western world and I think common sense will win. In the meantime I will continue to hold CTE, BNT and AMLN just as an insurance.

Enjoy the Fresh Cousine. I might ask you to DHL left overs to Mozambique!

Mike

Quote from: Michael on February 03, 2006, 01:14:33 PM
Hi David,

According to my dear wife I really need a DIET so here we go - I am in 

We are probably a few who can remember a decade back when Brick and Mortar companies went online and the stock price soared. It is kind of ironic to see the opposite being the case today 

I believe in the Business Case. I believe there is much more money to be made in the "real" world for a company like DIET with a strong brand and customer base in one of the hottest industries in this decade.

Whether we are looking at 200% or 1000% increase in the share price really depends on the execution of the business plan but there should be a lot of upside on this pick.

Mike

Welcome aboard Michael  That was perfect timing ... when all technical guys were bailing out you came in with your fundamental case and the stock turned around.

One of the things I'm appreciating about fundamental analysis is the way we can filter short term technical signals. Perhaps that's the difference between strong and weak hands. Strong hands have a fundamental background to base their trading ideas. Weak hands are much more vulnerable to short term market movements - and trading mistakes.

Yes, DIET is going from the online world to the real world of food delivery. That is a perfect symbiosis: to have a large online community and then sell them products and services. (I wonder if Stocks on Fire LLC shouldn't try to sell you, registered users, some more things hahaha)

Quote from: Lucas Scott on February 03, 2006, 04:04:11 PM
In part because of DIET, the StocksOnFire portfolio looks like it's been on a diet. The portfolio is losing weight. When DIET dropped to the 6.50's earlier today, we were entering Mary-Kate Olsen territory! Then it bounced back. Hopefully it wasn't just a binge and purge with the purge to come next week But seriously, I like the chart a lot still and may double up on my position Monday if it hits the 33 ema again (~6.80). That bogus candle from Monday sure is annoying, isn't it?

Yes Lucas Scott, that 200% cross was very brief. I'm back to 190% again. But I believe I'm building a strong foundation for the future with this portfolio. Some stocks were overbought when I bought them so profit taking and other issues took the portfolio down 5%. Soon the Stocks on Fire Portfolio will be back above 200% and beyond.

I hope you double up on DIET. Good luck 

Quote from: 1reilly on February 04, 2006, 12:05:44 AM
Michael
when you posted today that you were in, I doubled up. Diana and I have decided to be the trial group for 3stocks on fire for Diets. We're not kidding we will communicate to this board how we have ordered this food, how it was delivered.and what we eat each day. We will start this endeavour sat AM and will start a new thread on the Members Section. It will be titled Diana and Mike's Mission. All members will get our weekly update regarding their product.
Whether The stock goes up or down we're committed for the next 30 days. Look forward to updates I happen to think will know pretty soon if this product is worth our time.

This is an amazing help 1reilly  Thanks a lot and good luck on your losing weight efforts 

Quote from: stocky on February 04, 2006, 12:45:18 AM
applaud 1reilly, I am too fighting the battle of bulge. Will intend to regularly visit your thread and may post things related to that. Appreciate the effort.

Just to evaluate some alternate methods to DIET I would be on diet for next 30 days using commonly available stuff [like diet pepsi, apples, oranges, subway sandwich etc..] and will post the progress, cost and results on my diary at STOCK TALKING BOARD. In most probability I may not be doing any exercise, though would do some light walk over weekends.

On Diet Feb 4 to March 4.

Now I'm thinking that DIET should do some advertising on www.3stocksonfire.org  We, traders and investors, don't do much exercise, like to eat good stuff, got money and generally, we have an overweight problem

I'm going to write eDiets.com with an advertising proposal (ouch, already trying to increase the costs of the company hahaha).

ohh, I wish I had eDiets or something like that in Portugal ... it wouldn't need to be a food delivery service with the diet theme, ANY food delivery service would be great ! I really don't like to be day trading the DAX and suddenly, be hungry, enter the car, drive some, enter a restaurant, order the meal, eat it, pay, drive back home and find out ... «what a big move I missed» 

Coming back to DIET, the stock made an hammer after Michael & friends started buying, volume picked up considerably and the stock closed above the $6.95 support level. I bet we're going higher from here and I'll continue holding.

I've posted my diatribe in the members corner, here I'll just post what I think relates to DIET in an investment sense. I went to Nutrisystem's web site for a comparison of services and cost. Here's the bottom line. A. using listed proGrams Diet offers 3, Nutri lists 6. Nutri has a woman's, woman's over60, men's, men' over 60, Diabetic, and vegetarian. B. all 28 days sent to you at once by Nutri with $16 approx. shipping costs. Diets sent weekly with $100 shipping costs. Diets cost for middle cost program $840.00, Nutri's $346.51.
I don't think there's anyway we will know the revs we can expect until we see one or two quarters. I say two quarters because Diet is much more exspensive and I think this will lead to people spending much less time on their program. At 350 a month I could see many people developing a long term approach with Nutri's system. It's going to be interesting to see how Diet does at these price levels. But I am convinced were dealing with two entirely different demographics.

Thinking i may have to buy in near the close on monday if we see a white candle. Fundamentally i dont know much about this company, But when michael and Dave both say they like it, ill take their word for it 

Technically there as been an upsloping resistence trendline since march 05 that price action finally broke out of in the beginning of Jan 06, Then we had that nice rally and now price action has retraced back down to that upsloping line which is now support and just about perfectly tapped it with a gorgeous long hammer candle. Looking foward to making some profits on this one with you guys. Havnt bought one of your picks in a while Dave ive been kinda doin my own thing, Missed out on GIGM cause of that bearish divergence of MACD  i was worried about when i posted on the GIGM board when it was at 2.80, and missed the train So i'll hop in on the Mr randolph bandwagon this time around and hopefully enjoy some profits

-fous

Hey Fous(c)

Nice DIET analysis, you can apply the same ascending channel logic to GIGM, maybe you might like to try and ride that train as well

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1441.msg44885#msg44885

Thanks Aus i'll look into it 

-fousc

Great Fundamental, I also missed out the ride on this one, i'll buy DIET but not too fast, waiting on the sideline for now.

Hopped in this morning at 7.18. Lets make some moooooooooooooola

-fous man

Quote from: 1reilly on February 05, 2006, 11:00:43 AM
I've posted my diatribe in the members corner, here I'll just post what I think relates to DIET in an investment sense. I went to Nutrisystem's web site for a comparison of services and cost. Here's the bottom line. A. using listed proGrams Diet offers 3, Nutri lists 6. Nutri has a woman's, woman's over60, men's, men' over 60, Diabetic, and vegetarian. B. all 28 days sent to you at once by Nutri with $16 approx. shipping costs. Diets sent weekly with $100 shipping costs. Diets cost for middle cost program $840.00, Nutri's $346.51.
I don't think there's anyway we will know the revs we can expect until we see one or two quarters. I say two quarters because Diet is much more exspensive and I think this will lead to people spending much less time on their program. At 350 a month I could see many people developing a long term approach with Nutri's system. It's going to be interesting to see how Diet does at these price levels. But I am convinced were dealing with two entirely different demographics.

I've read your thread 1reilly, great fun and information there  Thanks a lot !

(although I don't understand your weight or tall numbers, I hope you succeed on your diet  ).

It looks like price of the service is quite high ... perhaps too high? We'll see. Anyway, this way DIET only needs about 1/3 of NTRI's costumer's to come up with the same revenue. At $840 per month/per costumer they need an average of 5158 monthly costumers to double their 3rd quarter revenue.

Anybody knows NTRI's numbers? I read they had 375,000 costumers in 2005, that's 31,250 a month 

$350/$840 = 0.42*31,250 = 13,020.

DIET needs an average of 13,020 costumers per month to have the same revenues as NTRI, which were about $205M in 2005 and are expected to be $375M in 2006.

DIET's current revenues are about $55M a year.

1reilly already told us the price is high. Now he'll tell us about the quality of the service. Thanks a lot 1reilly, I'll continue holding DIET both on a trading and investment perspective.

David,

DIET does not need to have the same revenue as NTRI for us to make money. NTRI's market cap is $1.5B, while DIET is $150M. 3x from here for DIET's pps increase will keep me happy, and they don't need to be wildly successful as NTRI to do this.

I said at the beginning of this email thread that DIET's program is $800/month while NTRI's is $300/month. DIET is targeting high income bracket while NTRI's is targeting middle class. That's the difference. I would think DIET's profit on a per customer base is higher than NTRI. DIET's last earning report is mid-November, so we are due to hear from them pretty soon again.


-Valueseeker

Since I bought DIET when David first recommended it, my portfolio has gotten a lot lighter!

Quote from: snowcat on February 09, 2006, 01:41:09 PM
Since I bought DIET when David first recommended it, my portfolio has gotten a lot lighter!

DIET still traded higher than DAVID's first buy price ($6.90 -> $7.16).

Quote from: valueseeker on February 07, 2006, 08:19:59 AM
David,

DIET does not need to have the same revenue as NTRI for us to make money. NTRI's market cap is $1.5B, while DIET is $150M. 3x from here for DIET's pps increase will keep me happy, and they don't need to be wildly successful as NTRI to do this.

I said at the beginning of this email thread that DIET's program is $800/month while NTRI's is $300/month. DIET is targeting high income bracket while NTRI's is targeting middle class. That's the difference. I would think DIET's profit on a per customer base is higher than NTRI. DIET's last earning report is mid-November, so we are due to hear from them pretty soon again.

-Valueseeker

I fully agree with you Valueseeker, good luck 

Quote from: snowcat on February 09, 2006, 01:41:09 PM
Since I bought DIET when David first recommended it, my portfolio has gotten a lot lighter!

Come on snowcat, DIET is still trading above my purchase price, which was $6.90.

Quote from: shawFund on February 09, 2006, 04:53:49 PM

Quote from: snowcat on February 09, 2006, 01:41:09 PM
Since I bought DIET when David first recommended it, my portfolio has gotten a lot lighter!

DIET still traded higher than DAVID's first buy price ($6.90 -> $7.16).

Thanks shawFund 

Funny press release from DIET today: Women Across the United States Confess That Beauty Is More Important Than Brains

(I bet Julia and other 3 Stocks women subscribers won't like this )

The stock couldn't hold those near $8 levels and is still consolidating. No problem, the more it consolidates the higher it will go when it breaksout.

I'll continue holding DIET.

Over the past 3 days we had a Sticky Sandwich candlestick pattern, which favours a rally from current levels on DIET.

The stock is still consolidating, but sooner rather than later it will break $8 on the upside. The technical target of that bullish breakout is something like $9.87.

I'll continue holding and waiting for this outcome.