3SOF

Great news la-onda, thanks for posting 

jrtabor was right on this issue regarding Maribavir, I bet he's right on the other issues too. After all VPHM can develop drugs, so one of bigdogs bearish arguments has gone down.

The news was just out (VPHM wasn't on my update list today) and the stock is trading 3.6% higher in the pre-market action. The risk is on the upside with VPHM, since the revenue base is quite secure and we'll probably continue having positive developments like today's.

Perhaps we'll challenge $24.36 today 

David, would you like to look at another biopharma stock that may be on fire now? GNBT. They announced successful lab tests on their latest Avian Flu vaccine and are applying for clinical trials with the FDA. They have a press conference scheduled for Feb. 12, pehaps it (the stock) can interest you. I did not know where to post it.
Gracias.

VPHM: Goldman Sachs Starts @ In-Line; Analyst Notes
Friday , February 10, 2006 08:54 ET
Issuer: Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM)
Analyst Firm:  Goldman Sachs & Co.
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: In-Line
Analyst Comments: The firm believes the stock has upside potential due to potential earnings and multiple expansion based on Vancocin sales, the main N-T growth driver. They believe the product pipeline's risk/reward is leveraged nicely by corporate partnerships.

Quote from: berloga on February 07, 2006, 09:04:55 AM
David, would you like to look at another biopharma stock that may be on fire now? GNBT. They announced successful lab tests on their latest Avian Flu vaccine and are applying for clinical trials with the FDA. They have a press conference scheduled for Feb. 12, pehaps it (the stock) can interest you. I did not know where to post it.
Gracias.

Thanks berloga, the chart looks interesting, I'll take a look at it when I have some time.

VPHM just touched its short term ascending trendline. I expect the stock to rebound from current levels and I'll continue holding.

Repost from The Technical Analysis Board: The Wolfe Wave Folder

Quote from: Melf Elf on February 14, 2006, 07:06:32 AM
Here's a WW on VPHM.  I'll post this one on the 3SOF Members Board since its currently in that  portfolio.

I agree with Melf Elf's technical analysis, VPHM has a technical target of about $16. The stock is trading on a lateral range.

I was really slow on this, when the Maribavir news came out and the stock went down there was a smell of trouble in the air. I felt it, but stood still. Guess what, there's a price to pay ... 

I always felt like I was playing another man's game on VPHM.

I'll take about a 6% loss on VPHM today around the open. Good luck for those that will continue holding, for their own reasons.

David

We are totally out of sync when it comes to VPHM. I was just about to buy when I saw you message. Technically you might be right but fundamentally this stock still has a long way to run.

I will wait a day or two but I really don't think I can wait for you and Melf Elf to get the right technical signal. I already have my signal and it tells me that 19 is a great entry point. 18 is however better so lets see if we can make that!

Mike

Hmmmm.... my last message was too cheap so let me elaborate a bit.

VPHM's forward PE is 17.26.

They will be debt free in the coming months

They are growing earnings at a rate that leaves big pharma's in the dust.

They have a quite interesting pipeline with one drug that has just been given fast track status

and you are selling 

VPHM only has one problem. It has increased too fast over too short a time.

Show me any other pharmaceutical company that has this kind of track record, pipeline, PE etc. and I will be on the buying side. (I will however also still buy more VPHM - these kind of opportunites don't show up too often!)

Mike

Quote from: Michael on February 15, 2006, 01:57:22 PM
I will wait a day or two but I really don't think I can wait for you and Melf Elf to get the right technical signal.

Mike,

I've given you a smite for that.   

You demonstrated this same rude, arrogant, and condescending attitude in the SVA and DNDN folders last November, and depite what I thought were many, many through explanations to you of my work in folders such as KOMG, STX and CKCM, you have stubbornly insisted on misunderstanding what technical analysis is, what it isn't, and you have continue to take swipes at my work.

In November, when I sold DNDN on a break of channel support, very similar to this channel break in VPHM,  you had this same arrogant attitude.  When DNDN received fast track status for Provenge on November 7, you became more arrogant about how right you were, how wrong UBS was for downgrading DNDN from $7 to $4, and more snide comments about technical analysis ensued.

DNDN made a HIGH on November 7, and it hasn't been far from $4 lately.

In the SVA folder, you asked those of us who were considering shorting SVA on the technicals, "Who the hell would short this stock?"  If you look at that chart, it was a great short.

Technical analysis isn't perfect, Mike.  David and I make plenty of mistakes, and we both have posted them publicly.  Your fundamentals aren't perfect, either.  Knock off the arrogance, and join the rest of us.  We're human.  You are, too.     

Hmmm.... I thought I showed respect when I said that I would wait buying due to your and David's assessment of the chart.

Anyhow I know you don't smite easy so I will consider it an honor to be smited by you. At least I must have made an impression.

I am very passionated about my investments and out of the stocks you are mentioning (which is not my best picks) I think my track record is not too bad. I haven't gone back an looked at the exact date I recommended each stock on 3SOF but i think this shows a pretty precise picture of the development in price since then:

SVA 37%
DNDN -26%
KOMG 46%
STX 84%
CKCM 47%

Even though you might not think so I have a lot of respect for TA and am using it on a daily basis. But the truth is that if I had traded based on TA alone I would probably have saved 10% on DNDN but lost between 20% and 80% on the rest.

We all have different trading styles mine really works for me and have done so for the last 20 years.

When I first time posted on 3SOF this was almost exclusively a technical forum. I hope that a little fundamental analysis (or what I like to call common sense) has added value or at least increased the entertainment value. (I might be the only one here but I can really be borred looking at charts all day).

Coming back to the substance of the discussion I am looking forward to your analysis of the reversal of VPHM today. I not saying this because I want to provocate but because I have respect for your skills as I would like you to have for mine.

Mike

Hmmm......Looks like an excellent case of the Technical Guru vs. Fundamental Guru.  I highly respect both sides and both of you as speculators, but in this case, I think I got to side on Melf position (near term atleast). 

This is almost a near perfect Wolvewave pattern except that I would like to see more of a "lead in" going into the start of the pattern.  I am very confident that this stock will plunge near term (like Melf said, $16 price target).  So, if I were you Mike, I would wait to buy at that price.  I think you'll appreciate Melf a little more in the long run.  You have very good fundamental analysis Mike, so I may jump in VPHM for the long term with you if I have any extra funds at the time it drops to $16  . 

To the both of you..............keep up the good work and let's just all get along.   Seriously! 

Thai

Well, I jumped out this morning at 19.40  & 19.20 because of the 'wolfwave pattern'. Now I am very interested to see how this all works out! I can not believe how undervalued VPHM is.

By the way, most of my 'long term' stocks are bleeding ....

Like Michael, I am more on the fundamental side than on the technical side. I would like to learn more about the technical to have better entry & exit points. So I am open to learn from both of you.

With respect to VPHM, I bought at $6.35 and sold a lot around $19-23 so that I could invest in other companies. All my shares are free shares and sits in my retirement account for long term hold. I still like the fundamentals of VPHM and think it can double from here this year if the company executes right.

If we just look at the technical signal today, is it a hammer and indicates a "buy" signal? I personally won't buy since I am all invested, but won't sell either.

Melf and Mic

Quote from: Terlisa on January 12, 2006, 02:36:56 PM
There is no doubt VPHM is a growth stock.... but i think it's not time yet to buy, will wait & see for a while... goodluck

Melf Elf analysis is right on the spot