3SOF

With the fact that bird flu was found in Africa today, imho, NVAX and SVA will be hot.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/02/08/nigeria.birdflu/index.html

Personally, I like SVA better than NVAX, as SVA I feel is quite strong and should easily run to 5 soon. NVAX has imho traded a little more weakly (maybe because it ran up more in terms of total percentage due to the fact that it is a US company than SVA).

IMO, buying a bird flu stock right now is a tradeoff between these possibilities...

1. More bird flu news comes out of africa, possibly even some deaths.

2. Soon winter will end and the possibility of a pandemic will end for this year, and traders will leave the bird flu stocks.

I feel that #1 will prevail here. Right now I don't have a position but I believe bird flu news coverage over the next week or two will drive up stocks like sva and nvax. Buying sva also puts me in an uncomfortable position of subconsciously hoping for more bird flu deaths to help drive up the stock price... The other nightmare scenario is that as bird flu infects the huge HIV population in africa, who can't clear it, there are more chances for a pandemic mutation to happen.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4444940.stm

GLTA

Note: while bird flu getting to a new continent is huge news in and of itself, it remains to be seen whether or not the press hypes the AIDS/Bird flu nightmare scenario that others have talked about. If you start seeing an article or two about the AIDS/Bird flu combo that I talked about, watch out above. Note that the last article link I posted did not mention anything about that possibility, which I cannot believe.

hi,
chart looks good for nvax to go ahead,
big white candle today. short term 4.75. 4.40 in premarket
maxi

Melf Elf
I know your reasoning is solid and I reentered this stock based on your TA. So why don't I exit when you come to your conclusion? I'm of the opinion that this company is on the right track with their science. I have never felt this should be looked at as only a BF play. My fundamentals tell me that the shelf registration means something big is coming. I'll add to this stock on breaks and see if their pipeline and processes come to fruition. Keep up the great TA on this one I will use it to add.

Quote from: 1reilly on February 10, 2006, 10:46:28 AM
Melf Elf
I know your reasoning is solid and I reentered this stock based on your TA. So why don't I exit when you come to your conclusion?

Mike,

Because you're a good boy, and you make your own trading decisions. 

Quote
Keep up the great TA on this one I will use it to add.

Thanks, Mike.  I felt much less confident about my position when those 3 Bearish patterns showed up, so I had to exit.

Review:

1. The Bearish H&S Top (neckline: 4.33)

2. The Bearish Gartley

3. The Bear Flag

This morning, we broke below Bearish Pattern #4, a mini H&S top, a fractal (repeating pattern) of Bearish Pattern #1, which put 3.99 IN PLAY again.  The recent low was 3.98.

Math:

Head was at 4.49, the top of the Bearish Gartley
Neckline was 4.24.

4.49 - 4.24 = 0.25 points

4.24 (neckline break) - 0.25 points = Target 3.99 IN PLAY

In addition, we've possibly got Bearish Pattern #5 forming.   

There's too much on this chart to show you that one, so I'll post it separately.

Mike,

Remember that "8-Minute Rally" from 3.98 to 4.37?  That's the tall candlestick, whiere the 4.09-4.10 neckline begins on this chart.

In addtion to the Bearish Gartley and the Bear Flag that formed after that "8-Minute Rally," we've now got the possibility the it all has "morphed" (changed) again, and that everything since the "8-Minute Rally" is nothing but another H&S Top.  The Right Shoulder also is a "mini" H&S top (neckline: 4.24)

If we break 4.09-4.10, we could be headed lower than the 3.99 target, already IN PLAY.

You see why I'm not feeling confident about the way NVAX is acting. 

Quote from: Melf Elf on February 10, 2006, 02:50:34 PM
This morning, we broke below Bearish Pattern #4, a mini H&S top, a fractal (repeating pattern) of Bearish Pattern #1, which put 3.99 IN PLAY again.  The recent low was 3.98.

Math:

Head was at 4.49, the top of the Bearish Gartley
Neckline was 4.24.

4.49 - 4.24 = 0.25 points

4.24 (neckline break) - 0.25 points = Target 3.99 IN PLAY

Mike,

Oops!  I screwed that one up.  I was thinking of the top of the Bearish Gartley/and Bear Flag.  I was lazy and didn't go back to look at it.  Sorry about that.

The high of that "mini" H&S top only was 4.40, so the target IN PLAY is 4.08.

Math:

Head was 4.40
Neckline was 4.24

4.40 - 4.24 = 0.16 points

4.24 (necline break) - 0.16 = Target: 4.08 IN PLAY

We got to 4.10 today, so that might be "close enough." 

NVAX currently is BID 4.21...ASK 4.22, re-testing that broken neckline at 4.24.

Once again thanks for all the work. Let me ask you your opinion regarding the almost flatline volume since Feb 1 and what does The MACD look like to you . I don't know if you look at Bollinger bands but they have narrowed significantly. I think what your saying about this potential breakdown is also what the volume, MACD and bollinger bands are saying. There is great indecision on this stocks direction and all the TA says be very careful. BUT we can all see this and in this current volume environment this stock should be easy to take to the downside. My guess is folks don't want to be on the short side at these levels. Let's see what happens.

Looking for 10% up/down soon.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVAX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p22435327780

Quote from: 1reilly on February 11, 2006, 12:57:28 PM
There is great indecision on this stocks direction and all the TA says be very careful.

Mike,

That's a good description.   After the "8-Minute Rally," we haven't done much.  Bulls couldn't sustain the rally, but Bears haven't tanked it.   The low volume probably is telling us that there's no conviction, and that players are waiting for direction.  We've got those short-term bearish patterns, but the bigger picture looks okay. 

"Could go higher...could go lower."  Big help, huh!?  That's why I sold.

Friday, we missed hanging onto the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle (bold purple pattern) by a penny, but the fact that we held support at that 4.09-4.10 neckline and tried to hang onto 4.17 (the bottom of the triangle) at the close  makes that one "too close to call."  But, it does look a bit perilous if we can't move higher, and break below 4.09-4.10 support.

Notice that the Tenkan-sen (solid green line) and Kijun-Sen (solid red line) have had a Bearish Cross (green below red), and that the Kijun-Sen (solid red line) was resistance on Wednesday and Thursday.  The Kumo (Cloud), however, is below, so that's some support.

Again, "could go higher...could go lower."   

Sorry that I can't be of any help, Mike.  I thought that I had a pretty good read on NVAX when we were headed down to test QUADRUPLE support at 3.88-3.94, but the bearish patterns after the ""8-Minute Rally" have me stymied.

hi,
here is a simple swing chart for nvax. as you can see , not really tradeable . no trend is evident here.
thanks for all the great work everyone.
maxi

hi,
here is another chart showing the boliinger flat ,macd flat ,adx flat. as you can see this could go either way. (my bet is to the down side which probiably means you should go long,lol)
so no real risk reward ratio here,
thanks ,
maxi

Yesterday, NVAX held the neckline of the recent H&S Top pattern at 4.09 exactly.  This morning, NVAX knocked out the high of the Right Shoulder, 4.40, and also took out the high of the Head, at 4.49.  This print high is 4.52, so far.  That's looking very good.

The takeout of the high of the Head puts 4.89 IN PLAY.

Math:

High of the Head: 4.49

Neckline: 4.09

4.49 - 4.09 = 0.40 points, added to the breakout...

4.49 + 0.40 = 4.89 IN PLAY

Notice that's within a penny of the 4.88 target IN PLAY from the triangle breakout on January 9.  Notice also that yesterday's 4.09 low held this time, right at the top of that pattern (solid green).

There's no such thing as "a lock" in the stock market, but with hold of 4.09 and with two patterns reinforcing a target, I'd be very surprised if we don't see the two targets of 4.88 and 4.89 IN PLAY.

The December 9 Ascending Triangle target of 5.15 also still is IN PLAY.

Bought NVAX at 4.39.  Stop: A print of 4.08.  Risk: a loss of 7%

NVAX currently is BID 4.38...ASK 4.39

NVAX continuing to gain.  You can check the full post here: (6, 8 and 9th posts from top)

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3635.msg46901#msg46901

Melf Elf
well 5.15 has been hit, since I'm still long I'd be very interested in your take on this leg up. I know that targets hit should lead me to do some selling, but the fundamentals lead me to think I should add at some point. I'll wait for your take on this one. Thanks Mike