3SOF

fyi:

financial overview link:
http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=financials&symbol=N%5Evphm

VPHM: Jumps +3.62%; Vol +54%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Wednesday, February 15, 2006 16:23 ET

During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of Viropharma, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: VPHM) demonstrated a strong UPWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.

sym: VPHM      @13:30 ET        @CLOSE      % CHANGE
----------   -----------   -----------  ------------
PRICE             $19.06        $19.75        +3.62%
VOLUME         1,313,000     2,016,800       +53.60%
#TRADES            3,055         4,063       +33.00%
DAY-HI            $19.50        $19.81       LATE-HI
DAY-LO            $18.65        $18.65           N/A

Quote from: Michael on February 15, 2006, 05:44:53 PM
Even though you might not think so I have a lot of respect for TA

Mike,

No, I didn't think so because of the comment that you made yesterday, and because of other comments like it that you have made in the past, but I'll take you at your word, and move on.

As far VPHM (or any other stock) is concerned, Mike,  I don't make "calls" on the market.  I don't predict anything, and I want to be very clear about that because you've made several comments before about "predicting."    I try to follow, as best I can.  If I have a pattern breakout, then I have a target that is IN PLAY, and I'll try to play it if I catch the breakout (or a pullback).  

That doesn't mean that the target will make, or that "technical analysis is wrong" if the target doesn't make.   It could be that as an analyst, I had a bad read of the chart, or it could be that something fundamental "trumped" the technicals, as we've discussed in the past.

VPHM was "a sell" near $23, on the failure at the top of the Bearish Channel/Wolfe Wave #5 fakeout.  Technical analysis doesn't tell us to sell.  The individual analyst has to decide whether or not to take the trade, based on that pattern/channel failure, the deteriorating technicals, the risk:reward, etc.  And, it depends on time horizon, too.  

That has nothing to do with the fundamentals, or the longer-term outlook on the stock.  It's simply a "trader's signal," so to speak, based on that particular pattern.   Do you want to sell/sell short, or not?  Up to the individual.

The close below the Bear Channel/Bearish Wolfe Wave pattern on February 13 again is "a sell," and again, that's up to the individual whether they want to take that pattern break as a sell signal, or not.  As a trader, I always will take that as a sell, right or wrong.

Does this pattern break mean that we absolutely are going down to the Wave #6 target of $16-$17.  Of course not.  From the Wolfe Wave 5 high, VPHM just dropped 20% to yesterday's low, and it could reverse and do the very same thing on the upside, on yesterday's Bullish Hammer.

All I can tell you is that the Bearish Channel/Wolfe Wave target is IN PLAY unless or until VPHM can close back inside the broken pattern.  Then I'd have to try to assess what's going on, if I'm still paying attention to it (there are a lot of stocks to follow).

For example, on that Bearish Island Reversal that we had in November, I posted in response to Oliver (laonda) that if VPHM could put in a "W" bottom (drawn below the pattern on the chart below) at horizontal support (dotted green lines), it should be alright.

VPHM did just that.  It double-bottomed, then took out the middle of the "W"-bottom putting a target of 21.88 IN PLAY, which made within a penny (21.87) on January 11.  It subsequently went much higher than that, to the Wofle Wave #5 failure on January 31.

I know that all of this is boring, Mike, and that it can be boring to look at charts all day,  but that's the best that I can tell you.  I look for patterns, derive targets, and try to play it the best that I can.  I don't have "the right technical signal," as you put it, to predict "the high," or "the low," or to predict what this or any other stock is going to do next.  That's your own decision.

I only can tell you what looks to be IN PLAY.  Right now, it's that $16-$17 target.

Monthly Prescriptions per IMS Health!!!
by: irc203
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy    02/15/06 06:02 pm
Msg: 90094 of 90211

Prescriptions totaled 17,261 for the month of January 2006. This total is close to the totals we saw for May and June 2005, which were 17,350 and 17,276, respectively. January's number is outstanding as the monthly prescriptions are only going to increase from this level through the summer and perhaps beyond!


http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077380&tid=vphm&sid=7077380&mid=90094&um=50&.sig=78rPlvM7Er8DrrrGkQa0lQ--

I checked in on this thread because I wanted to make a joke that if David is going to sell he should at least change the subject to "The kind I don't want: VPHM" so as not to cause confusion   but I ended up getting sucked in to the Melf vs Mike battle! I'm a technical trader like Melf, but I have a bullish read on the stock. My chart below shows that the lower Bollinger band has been a great place to buy. I looked back to October and if you bought the day VPHM touched (or got withing striking distance of) the lower BB, and then sold the day it pierced the upper BB (or a day or two after), you would have made 10-20% each time with a holding time of 1-4 weeks.  I may be a buyer tomorrow! It would be my first time playing VPHM.

QuoteIf we just look at the technical signal today, is it a hammer and indicates a "buy" signal?

Valueseeker, the answers are "yes" and "sometimes". Yes it is a hammer. Sometimes that indicates buy if other technical stars are aligned.

Hi Oliver,

Thaks for the January prescription # I had missed that one on Yahoo MB.

It is worth to remember that VPHM made a significant price increase in September so revenue and margin is much higher this time around:

QuoteVancocin capsules in the U.S. Wholesalers will now pay $242.10 for a 20-unit package of 125 milligram capsules, up from $195.76. A 20-unit package of 250 milligram capsules will increase to $446.32, up from $368.86. The price increase, which was not factored into the company's financial guidance issued on Aug. 2, is effective immediately.

Also thanks to Lucas. It is nice to see that there are some TA support. I should have bought yesterday when I was planning to but I can hope Melf Elf's and Terlisa's target is still in play 

I am still holding my initial stake bought at around 4.5 so I will only add when there is an excellent opportunity and I thought yesterday was such an opportunity.

Mike

Michael is very right in his fundamental analysis in CKCM, STX, KOMG, BNT, AOB, VPHM and a few more other stocks that I follow. In the long term, DNDN and SVA will turn out to be big winners (short term, sell/hold/buy are up to the individual styles). For stocks like DNDN where they don't show EPS or EPS growth, I think the pps fluctuation is a lot bigger & wait for a true break out can take a lot longer and is event driven (etc. FDA approval), so it's not for every FA person.

I do appreciate the TA analysis on the entire market. You see, 3SF reached 200% but now is under 180%, which represents 11%+ pull back, and that's about the same in my portfolio. VPHM dropped a bit more than the general market (~14% pull back from the top at $23). If we as a group can do a better job of analyzing general market top & adjust the portfolio accordingly, that could improve the portfolio performance.

What I can see is all my portfolio drops a bit more than Nasdaq/S&P600 (small cap stocks) if they have sustained drops for a few days. My personal style is to buy & hold stocks, but would like to reduce my overall portfolio a bit at the start of general market drop such as early Oct./late Dec./last 1.5 weeks. I am now hoping the new Fed chairman's remark has stablized the market.

TA makes money, FA makes money, and that's just up to individual styles.

Hello Lucas Scott,

as i understand Bollinger Bands it is a dynamic measure of volatility.

Therefore is is an attribute by definition that a stock which is down is at the lower band and a stock making a high is at the upper band. I think this works with every stock an has nothing to do with TA. Hope that i'm not wrong with my statement. Can somebody help me out?

Hmmmm... I think I missed VPHM this time. They just announced that they are going to release fourth quarter and year-end financial results for 2005 and guidance for 2006.

I expect that they beat the earnings estimates and guide up for at least Q1. There is more than 5 million shares short. I wouldn't like to be short over the earnings. We all know the routine: they beat estimates, they guide up and PJ upgrade the stock......

Mike

The following is from Yahoo's MB:

QuoteAs many people know, Lou Navellier is the greatest stock-picker of our times, as proven time and again by the Hulbert Digest in their rankings of performance each year, every 5, 10 and 20 years. There isn't even any argument about it. Over the last 20 years Lou's Emerging Growth Newsletter has done better than 20% per year. Keep in mind that he does this with a large selection of stocks (about 30) so as not to endanger his customers portfolios - he keeps a balanced portfolio.

Lou has selected Viropharma as one of the Top Ten stocks to own in the 10,000+ Stock Universe. His "Buy-Below" price on VPHM is $29. "Buy-below" means that anything under that price can be expected to garner a large profit. It is not a sell point. When a stock price exceeds its buy below, then customers are always urged to keep the stock for the big gains still ahead.

This means that Lou's buy-below is almost $10 away, beyond which he expects outsize gains! The other stock on his Top Ten lost are much closer to their buy-below points, so VPHM offers the best possible gains.

Here is Lou's commentary on VPHM this week (cut and pasted):

"ViroPharma (VPHM), another Top 10 stock, is improving and is an outstanding buy. It has the cure for the common cold and I'm pretty happy with this stock. It's a great buy."

In previous week's commentary he has discussed other products and pipeline efforts of VPHM, but Lou and his staff of 50 tireless researchers obviously is more interested in the prospects of Pleconaril than most people who post here. I agree with him, though it may seems that SGP is moving slowly, the directions they are moving with Plec will probably prove to be much more profitable than anyone realizes.

I do not subscribe to Lou Navellier's services (they are bloody expensive) and I can therefor not confirm if the quotation is correct.

I have followed or invested in a couple of his picks including KOMG, NTRI and BBD. All stocks he picked long before they became the darling of the market.

We have discussed Pleconaril at length in this thread. It is interesting that it seems like he almost consider the approval of the drug as a done deal. VPHM will fly if this is true.

Mike

Quote from: pno on February 16, 2006, 10:06:36 AM
Hello Lucas Scott,

as i understand Bollinger Bands it is a dynamic measure of volatility.

Therefore is is an attribute by definition that a stock which is down is at the lower band and a stock making a high is at the upper band. I think this works with every stock an has nothing to do with TA. Hope that i'm not wrong with my statement. Can somebody help me out?

The point Lucas makes is that if you view the bollinger band as a range, then the pattern of VPHM is (recently) to bounce off the lower bollinger band and fall back at or near the upper band thus making a great entry / exit signal. Bollinger bands have everything to do with TA as they can show this support / resistance (within a range) whether a stock is trending up down or sideways overall.

There is no way I'm letting go of my 5k shares(in since June). Looks like someone is buying them all up from the tree shaking recently, institutional holdings jumped another 15% last month. Friday was a exceptionallly strong day, as options expired: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=VPHM&range=7&mgp=0&x=16&y=21&i=3&hdate=

The more I look at VPHM, the more I remember
what my neighbor (a retired broker from Schwab) told me;
"The MMs and brokers watch TA too - they bust charts as the need suits them"

I'm not a conspiracy theorist by nature
( I do think I saw Melf in the Grassy Knoll, though)
But I'm of the opinion this is not going to make the
$16.00 Wolfwave target prior to earnings.

I'm also of the opinion that earnings will validate
the FA and VPHM will move higher.

There are only 4 more trading days
till the earnings announcement, so I'm going to
target the $ 18.40 - $ 18.70 70 range to get back into VPHM.

I drew a few lines  and this is what I came up with:



One caveat - Watch $ 18.40  - If it is breeched, all bets are off and I'll be Wolf chow

yahoo quotation:

monthly projection
by: nocheintyp (36/M/Berlin)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy    02/23/06 08:58 pm
Msg: 91449 of 91476

While the handle is forming (referring to Buffett's good posts) I found some time to make another ugly picture ;-) Please look at

http://hometown.aol.de/AndorraMax/VPHMpix/monthly_proj_plot.jpg

Description:

As simple as I am I chose to use law of three for the 2006 prescription numbers' range. I drew ugly coloured levels into the plot from the Vanco site and used the corresponding values to calculate the relative change. The first level (06-08/04) has an average value of 12810 prescriptions. Next level (10-12/04) has 11450 or down 10.6%, and so on.

I used carefully 40% for the level corresponding to (06-08/06) to find 21670 prescr. (from (09-11/05) as base) and -10% for (09-11/06) (from that new value) leading to 19500 p's. These are VERY BIG numbers. If these would come true, p-numbers will increase about 30-35% during total 2006 (very rough eye's view).

Nothing can be said about the intermediate times in this model. As you can see in the graph (12/04-02/05) is flat while (12/05-02/06) seems to see an increase going on. Maybe this behaviour completely falsifies the above outlined level approach. It could mean both, first that the (seasonal) increase is happening right now and may saturate beneath the 40%-up level and second that these bigger numbers will add a little to the total of 2006 (if the decline does not compensate for that). I think the picture may become clearer when (06-08/06)-numbers are available.

BTW, 20000 monthly p's should translate to slightly above 2500 weekly p's (there's a ratio of about 1:2 == weekly sum p's : monthly p's).

OK so my TA is better than Melf's, at least where VPHM is concerned. But who's keeping track?  

I didn't buy. I'm tempted to today now that VPHM has moved strongly above its 9 ema and 20 ema but with earnings on Tuesday.... 

la-onda - you lost me at hello

Hi Lucas,

I think you might be more right than you think. I seem to remember that I have read that the PPS tend to move to the upper band after it has touch the lower band.

The upper band is a 23.47 today and I am believe that we will blast through that next week with the earning in sight.

I am really sure that both Melf Elf and David were correct when they saw a technical sell signal last week but I am also sure that they put too much emphasize on technical trading and somehow in the process forgot to look at the fundamentals of the company.

Mike