3SOF

While surfing on net, I hv got this chart.....prediction for the next 30 days
I shows SVA may climb upto $8.88 within the next 30 days

Bye
YUNUS

that site is crap!

thanks for the charts yunus.  SVA has vaccine for Hepatitis and SARS.  They are the only company in china that is backed by their government.  Their is a huge potential that they will have the vaccine for the bird flu virus by the end of the year.  They are currently in phase one clinical trials.  Results are scheduled for March.  8.88 in the next 30 days would be great.

Keep those analysis coming!

We might want to take another look at SVA, now that this folder is ready to fall off the bottom of the board.



Review:

1. Our final Bullish Target #3, 7.35, MADE the morning of November 22, 2005, two days before Thanksgiving, and this turkey topped out right there.  SVA printed 7.44 that morning, then tanked 11% that day, to close at 6.63.  Nasty Bearish Engulfing pattern reversal.

2. November 21, 2005, I believe, the day before the top at 7.44,  it was reported that short interest in SVA had increased somethng like 200%, if I remember correctly.   Based on that short interest, one would think that the stock would go much higher.

While I always suggest "take profits when targets get MADE," I wouldn't have suggested shorting SVA when it was printing the final bullish target at 7.35 and the high of 7.44, but shorting that November 22 reversal turned out to be a great play, and  it turns out that, based just on the short information and when it was released, the shorts were right!.

This is a good example of why I say, "Don't infer too much from short interest data."  For one thing, it's reported later than when the data were collected.  I think something like two weeks later. 

It's a common mistake to think that a stock is going to go up because of high short interest, and another mistake to justify staying in a stock that starts to act bearish because short interest is high. 

Another common mistake is to focus on "good news" when the chart is acting bearish.  No, bird flu hasn't gone away, and there has been a lot of news that has caused these stocks to run up in pre-market trading, but when the chart is acting bearish like this one has been, the rally fizzles.

In other words, things like short interest and news items can be "thumb suckers" that make us feel better when we're long a stock position that is going down.

As we discussed last autumn, let's not make the mistake of thinking that the fact that "bird flu isn't going away" necessarily will translate into much higher prices for the bird flu stocks.  The market is a discounting mechanism, and "good news" tends  already to be factored in.  SVA currently is down about 50% off its October high.

Just some T2T discussion, because it's difficult to assess these factors when making decisions about stocks.

The chart can help us with that, so let's look at it.

SVA now is testing the December low of 3.91, so we want to watch it here.  The 200DMA is at 3.797, just below that. 

If SVA can find support near here, and finish off the right leg of this possible "W"-bottom fractal (repeating pattern), it could have some nice upside.

Off that little "W"-bottom in November, all three of our bullish targets MADE.  This "W"-bottom pattern is much larger.

SVA currently is BID 3.98...ASK 3.99

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 31, 2006, 11:45:22 AM
SVA now is testing the December low of 3.91, so we want to watch it here.  The 200DMA is at 3.797, just below that. 

If SVA can find support near here, and finish off the right leg of this possible "W"-bottom fractal (repeating pattern), it could have some nice upside.

SVA currently is BID 3.98...ASK 3.99

SVA has put in nice candlesticks the past two days.

Tuesday was a Bullish Hammer.  Upside follow-thru was needed for confirmation.

Yesterday was an upside reversal - a Doji Star Hammer that closed above the prior day's high.  If SVA had opened lower than the prior day's low, then closed where it did at 4.21, above the prior day's high of 4.15, it would be called a "Key Reversal," which is a pretty reliable signal.

Yesterday's Bullish Doji Star Hammer should have the same bullish effect.  SVA opened at 4.20, above the prior day's high of 4.15, went down and printed a new low (3.95) for the right leg of our "W"-Bottom, then recovered and closed at 4.21, back above the prior day's high of 4.15.

Technically, the 4.15 high on Tuesday is called a "buy pivot."  A print of 4.16, one penny above that "pivot point," is a BUY.

In addition to what is so nice about these two candlesticks, is the fact that they have formed at the bottom of the right leg of this possible "W"-bottom pattern (drawn at the bottom of the chart).  The low of the left leg, 3.91, has held, and we've got the Buy Pivot Signal on an upside reversal Bullish Doji Star Hammer candlestick.

BUY signal given at 4.16.  Stop: Below 3.91.  Risk: 6%

I'm thinking price may have bottomed here.


Technically, price seems to have found support in this 4.00 range
area.  Last week's closing price of 3.96 was the only weekly close
below 4.00 since early Sept. '05.  This week we closed at 4.15.

Looking at the daily chart we bounced off the 200 day MA, and closed
above the 13 day EMA.

Daily 1 year chart:
http://tinyurl.com/bvv2k

Weekly history chart:
http://tinyurl.com/cvpah

Watching the intraday trading, it seems most of the frustrated
sellers have finally bailed and are out.  It seems this way
(especially evident the past 7 days) because the overall daily volume
has been low, and when the price has fallen intraday, it falls on low
volume to the bid.  When price has risen intraday, it rises on bigger
block buying at the ask.  The upside volume has been greater.     

Hourly 30 day chart:
http://tinyurl.com/9oxux

15 minute 7 day chart:
http://tinyurl.com/9kcz4

clearcoated

Long time since I have been looking at Sinovac, Which is actually a bit strange as it is one of the stock in my portfolio I am most excited about.

Now before I get a lot of smite points let me just clarify that I hope that Bird flu will die a silent death. Even without bird flu SVA will do great it will just take a little longer time!

From a fundamental point of view this is a great stock. Sinovac will be (as fare as I am aware) the first company that will have a vaccine against Bird flu. It might not be FDA approved but that really doesn't matter.

If Bird flu mutates so it can transfer from human to human we are looking at one of the worst diseases in modern time. Any vaccine that works will be approved. (Imagine the Chinese being healthy and Americans dying like flies!)

We are talking about a disease that potentially can kill 142 million people, reduce the GDP worldwide with 12.5% and cost 4.4 trillion USD. These are not figures from alarmists but from recognized scientists (even though the figures can differ with a few % or a few billions).


A couple of month ago WHO scientist said that it is not a matter of if but when we will see human to human infections. These day everybody are more careful (to me it seems like there are a lot of political pressure to reduce the fear) now you hear formulation like:

QuoteThe report's authors note that there are "enormous uncertainties" as to whether the disease will mutate into a more contagious version spread via human-to-human contact.

I do honestly unfortunately believe the flu will mutate (as it has happend repeatedly through history). It will most likely not kill 10th of millions of people (because of companies like SVA) but it will creat a scare that will make SARS look like the common cold.

I have a very simple view on SVA. I have invested less than 5% of my capital in SVA. If the above scenario becomes true the rest of my stocks will skydive but my investment in SVA will probably more than compensate me. That is a very cheap insurance. Especially as I believe that SVA is a good investment if (which I pray for) Bird flu will go away without anybody noticing.

Mike

When I posted the charts and message above, it did look like a good set-up for this week.  Tuesday's gap up (with the other bird flu plays) ended up disappointing and surprising.  Opened at high of day and then just traded down rest of day to close at low of day.  Not at all what I would have expected.  Today was worse.  Now I just think it's a wait and see, to see if it holds support.  News will likely move it.  The next event that we can anticipate is the initial results of the Phase 1 Panflu testing.  When that PR came out on 12/21, SVA stated those results would be available at end of March.  Phase 1 lasts for 9 months.

Finally bottomed today. Way oversold, and has not taken part in the bird flu rally. IMHO this is the next one to be run up another 50%.

Today was capitulation, followed by a huge up day closing at the HOD.

Also is the best stock out there (imho) as they have had ongoing clinical trials of bird flu vaccine that is due out this month.

DYODD.
g

This will be a strong gainer tomorrow, imo... the stock has not rallied with all the other bird flu stocks, and with the results from the early clinical trials for bird flu vaccine due in March, this should run. Today it rallied quite strongly from the capitulation low, and closed at the HOD.

g

hi,
i got caught in the down draft of the last few days ,
like to see it get above the 10 day and 20 day . nice bullish engulfing today.
maxi

Have been watching SVA and looking for a buy opportunity again.  I think we found it today with a nice bounce off long term support at $3.24 on high volume.  Bought @ 3.74 before the close.

Quote from: gambler2075 on March 02, 2006, 05:18:35 PM
Today was capitulation, followed by a huge up day closing at the HOD.

gambler,

That felt like capitulation, didn't it, but I would like to have seen more volume.

Quote from: rickjust on March 02, 2006, 10:32:41 PM
nice bullish engulfing today.

Yeah, that looks nice, maxi.

Quote from: basonista on March 02, 2006, 10:50:26 PM
Have been watching SVA and looking for a buy opportunity again. I think we found it today with a nice bounce off long term support at $3.24 on high volume. Bought @ 3.74 before the close.

basonista,

Good eye on that 3.24 horizontal support.  3.20 was IN PLAY from the Ascending Triangle breakdown, so that explains the bounce off 3.24.

Near term, we've got TRIPLE resistance at 3.95-3.97:

1. The trendline (solid red line) off the "possible" double-bottom, that failed.

2. The bottom of the broken Ascending Triangle (up sloping purple line)

3. The 200DMA (dotted red line)

Last week's close was 3.95, so if we can close the week out near that 3.95-3.97 TRIPLE resistance, we'll have a nice Bullish Doji Star Hammer on the weekly chart, poised for a move higher next week.

If SVA can rally here, it will avoid a Bearish Cross of the 50DMA (dotted green line) below the 200DMA (200DMA).  Maybe a "kiss" of the DMAs, then the 50DMA moves higher.

Good luck to everyone.

This is hopefully a false alarm but it might still influence the price of SVA in the days to come:

Quote
Azerbaijan investigating possible family cluster of bird flu cases, WHO says

Canadian Press
Published: Saturday, March 11, 2006

GENEVA (CP) - Health authorities in Azerbaijan are investigating a worrisome cluster of possible human cases of H5N1 avian influenza, the World Health Organization said Thursday.
A total of 11 suspected cases, including eight members of the same family, are being assessed, WHO spokeswoman Maria Cheng said.

Of the 11 suspect cases, three people have died and one is listed in serious condition in hospital.

"Currently there are signs that suggest this could be a human H5N1 cluster," Cheng said. "But we don't know that right now. We still need to do more thorough epidemiological investigation and wait for the lab results."

"It certainly looks a bit suspicious, but we don't have enough information to draw conclusions."

Though all human cases of avian flu are potentially dangerous, WHO pays particular attention to clusters of cases. While clusters may be the result of several people from the same family or village each having exposure to infected birds, they could also signal that the virus has passed from one person to another.

It is believed there have been a number of cases of limited human-to-human transmission of the H5N1 virus. But any sign of continued spread could mean the virus had mutated in ways that would allow it to more easily jump to and between people.

If WHO confirms this is a case of Human to Human transmission it is very worrying because it would be highly unlikely that Azerbaijan would be the first and only place the mutation has happend. This would spark a new era for all the Bird Flu picks like SVA, NVAX and EMFP.OB.

Mike

why SVA need to sell Korea vacine if their own vaccine works fine?

That part confused me...