3SOF

DO NOT forget, that this is a BIOTECH company we are talking about and til´now the shorts were right. I made my mistake in January: nice short interest, no bad news coming, good news on the way, company full of cash, nice technical picture and ... I lost 1/2 of my investment  in 9 days. It hurt, it really hurt! And I still can not understand - why?
Well, now I'm long in DNDN since April 2005 @4.57 and even knowing all the news and technicals, I'm still prepared for bad surprises because this is a BIOTECH company! [email protected] and do not count on huge short interest!
Good luck to all of You!

Quote

Poiss,

I give you applause for your honesty and  objectivity in sharing your story, especially about the shorts having been right.  High short interest in a stock that is in a bearish trend, as DNDN has been, doesn' t mean that the shorts are wrong, and that the stock is going to rally. The shorts are right to short a bearish trend. 

Where the shorts become wrong is when a stock has a upside breakout, the trend changes to bullish, and the stock continues to climb higher.  Ouch for the shorts!   

In the current time-frame, looking at David's chart at the beginning of this thread, DNDN had a false upside breakout on Tuesday, and now is back below the trendline.  After studying the chart for awhile, I'm now thinking that DNDN never broke out in the first place. 

Here's why: Technical analysts have some disagreement about whether or not to use a semi-log chart.  My response to that is, "Use what works."

From its May low, DNDN moved up about 2 points, but it was a 50% rally in just two weeks.  That's huge!  If a $40 stock rallied $2, that's only a 4% gain.  Big difference.  That alone suggests using a semi-log scale chart on DNDN, to put the dramatic percentage gain into perpespective.

What really argues for using the semi-log chart on DNDN is that if you connect the recent highs on David's chart (February 17 and May 16), you'll see that on Tuesday, June 21, DNDN rallied right up to that trendline, but failed to break out.

What's good about that, is that we now have a validated down trendline.  You can connect any two data points on a chart, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it's an important trendline.  You need a third tag of a trendline to validate the trendline as being meaningful support or resistance.  In this case, it was meaningful resistance.

If DNDN can print 5.68, above Tuesday's high, that's an upside breakout above a validated trendline.  In addition to attracting the "breakout buyers," it aso could cause some shorts to scramble to cover some of those 14 million shares   More buying.  More fuel for a rally.

Regarding your 5.05 stop, you have a fabulous entry into DNDN from 4.57 in April, and you've got a nice chance here to recover some of your losses from January.  DNDN could have another down day or two here.  If you connect the last two lows on David's chart (May2...June 10), that up trendline comes in today, June 24, at about 4.96.  DNDN could drop to that level to validate the up trendline, thereby stopping you out. 

There's also a gap from May 4 at 4.75-4.80 (still above your entry price) that might get filled, but a fill of that gap also would stop you out.

YOUR money,  YOUR decision, and I'm never going to tell anyone how to trade,  but I think that you've got some upside potential here on a print of 5.68, and your risk is minimal or nothng if you stop the trade out at a break even.

Good luck with this trade.  I hope that it turns into a nice winner for you.

stockpicker, Poiss and Melf Elf, you've made extremely good points on DNDN, I've applauded you three.

Melf Elf is right, the stock just validated a downtrend line in the semi-log scale chart. I leave the chart, the trading plan is obvious ... my timing could have been better, had I made a semi-log chart instead of a linear chart (one note to remind).

Sorry,
bought at 5,37 .

DNDN is teting the 50 SMA daily, as long as the price is above the 50SMA daily,
I´ll hold, when it falls through this line I´ll sell.

Thank you all for the good information and help,

DNDN is obove the daily SMA 50 and is testing it.

I studied the chart of the last years.
As long as the price is above this line, there is a chance for a breakout,
when the price is going down through this line, it´s probably to go down more,
and that´s my stop loss border.

hi guys,

i take it you are selling if DNDN drops below MA50 = 5.22?

do you give any leeway in the prices of all stocks due to the Dow drop due to oil at $60?

-rocket8

hi guys,

i take it you are selling if DNDN drops below MA50 = 5.22?

do you give any leeway in the prices of all stocks due to the Dow drop due to oil at $60?

-rocket8

Quote from: Rocket8 on June 24, 2005, 08:15:01 AM
...
i take it you are selling if DNDN drops below MA50 = 5.22?
...

-rocket8
There's no hidden messages ("stop@", "do as I do" etc.) in every post, just some opinions. If You are after profit like 3Stocksonfire portfolio has, You have to follow captain's (David) advice. And as much as I understand, his messages are extremely clear - "buy" or "sell". Just follow his posts. Thats it!

Hi rocket8,

This is just my strategy to sell after a daily close below the daily SMA50.
I´ll buy back after a close above the 50SMA.

What you are doing depends on you.

I put a 50 day simple moving average in the DNDN chart. Currently the stock is below that level, but I don't find it to be very significant. My plan is to wait for resolution on the perfect triangle pattern below.

The stock recovered quite a lot at the end of the session and rose slightly in after hours trade. On a candlestick basis it has made an hammer pattern which is a short term bullish reversal signal.

Holding the stock, thinking it will breakout on the upside, despite of the global market weakness.

Hi David,

in the chart I use the stock is still above the daily 50SMA, and above the weekly 10SMA.
The link:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/javachart.asp?symb=dndn&time=&freq=

You're right therman, I don't know why (since my settings are for SMA), but I was showing an exponential moving average on DNDN. I apologize (today's chart has the 50 day SMA and indeed the stock is above it)

Fool's had some comments today on DNDN, bullish comments: The Best Way to Predict the Future

DNDN is still facing a technical dilemma, which line to break? I think it will be the descending line, given the fundamentals, but the market has, as always, the final word:

Thanks David and Stockpicker. Another great pick (that is from a fundamental point of view!)

As pointed out already this is a biotech stock with the risk that this entail but the reward seems to outshine the risk.

With a 300% increase in the survival rate and without the side effect of chemotherapy I feel confident that FDA will give it a thumps up.

As stockpicker has pointed out the market is tremendous!

Have a look at the Needham Biotechnology Conference it gives a good summary of the status of the different trials: http://investor.dendreon.com/medialist.cfm

DNDN rose 3% today and is getting closer and closer to breakout that descending trendline. Tomorrow the resistance will stand at $5.57 so a 2% rise will probably encourage some more bulls that are just waiting for the technical confirmation.

Go DNDN, go !

Quote from: David Randolph on June 28, 2005, 06:47:00 PM
DNDN rose 3% today and is getting closer and closer to breakout that descending trendline.

Mighty close, David! 

Yesterday was DNDN's first close in 2005 above the Kumo (cloud) on the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo.

"Ichimoku translates as "a glance" or "one look."  Kinko Hyo translates as "the table of equilibrium" or "balance table."  Hence a chart displaying this indicator provides a broad look at the prices in a single view.  You should be able to look at the chart and know at a glance whether to buy or sell."

The Senkou Spans define the parameters of the cloud.  Currently, for DNDN, they are:

Senkou Span A (top of the cloud): $5.45
Senkou Span B: (bottom of the cloud)$5.39

DNDN closed at $5.48, with the Kumo (cloud) resting under it as support.  Looks good.  I also like MACD.  It's above its signal line.  It's been going sideways above zero, and ticked higher yesterday. It looks ready to go, like in early May on this chart:

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1120026603187?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:DNDN&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

Interesting post... but I must admit that I know nothing about Kumo, Ichimoku and Kinko Hyo.

However, there are rumors that DNDN's CEO is in a mid-west road show so I guess that a couple of institutes heard the story and decided to place a small bet here.

The big news are due sometimes this summer and the pps will break the support or the resistance line.

Good luck!