3SOF

from the RB board:

By: tempelife 
14 Mar 2006, 11:54 PM EST

Why Own PTSC

Facts:
1) PTSC owns 50% of the Patents (TPL owns the other 50%)
2) $260 billion industry (some argue more)
2) Royalties - unknown but assume a conservative 1%
- Admittedly PTSC may not sign every infringer but at the same time they are going to get a ton of cash from some others (i.e. RIMM and NTP - settlement $612.5 million).
Intel, AMD, HP, Casio, and Fujitsu have already singed agreements.
There are at least 150 companies infringing on their technology, but probably more.
4) Shares Outstanding - 400,000,000 w/ dilution

Formula:
2,600,000,000 (1% of the $260 billion industry)
Divide by 2 (PTSC gets half after splitting it with TPL)
= 1,300,000,000 (minimal expenses, mean it's basically all profit)
Divide by 400,000,000 (amount of shares w/ dilution)
= 3.25 per share
Multiply P/E of 20
$65/share

Why do I choose 20 for the P/E. The big positive cash flow companies that are mature MSFT, CSCO, YHOO, etc. hover a little over a multiple of 20. Realistically on its way up PTSC could easily justify a P/E of 100 or more because their revenue growth is explosive unlike the more mature companies. Over time the P/E would taper down. Even at a lousy P/E of 8, I come up with over $25/share. That doesn't factor in the fact that PTSC could actually make way more than my example of 1.3 billion dollars in royalties (again RIMM vs NTP settled for $612.5 million and that's only 1 darn company). At some point, probability says that at least few of these infringers will be paying RIMM type settlements.

WOW! It seems amazing every time I run through the numbers!

=================================================

the above may be an exaggeration...but even with 10% of the royalties listed in the above post, it'd still come to $6.50 pps with a P/E multiple of 20.

today's 3.30 pm court decision seems to have fuelled a lot of momentum today and this will definitely carry on tomorrow...this might run up very high considering that Texas is known to be a favorable case for those companies that own patents.

big day tomorrow, IMO.

good luck to those long on this one.

by the way, did u guys see the action on XSNX ?? that's a pretty powerful baby. played it just twice in the past for some measly profits considering today's high of day.

Any comments about the news? 
   
Patriot Scientific To Now Focus On Outcome of Infringement Lawsuit in Texas
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060317/20060317005229.html?.v=1

It seems like PTSC is backed by some excellent legal team and the way Fujitsu backed out it gives a clear signal that they have a very strong case. I see some more strong action in the stock but as usual one need to wear seat belt if you want to ride this roller coaster. I see it passing 2 in next week. I am long PTSC.

Any predictions for tomorrow?
- Dhiraj

Another posting about Schwartz position from internet. Not my thinking, just collecting relevant information in one chain:

Definitive Swartz position explanation...
If this has been posted at another time today, please forgive me. Too many posts to sift through!
This was written by Agoracom board member, ronran, an insightful attorney and PTSC long time shareholder. This is a good read and puts perspective on the S/L position:

"s40.....
From ronran
PostID 461194 On Sunday, March 19, 2006 (EST) at 8:48:07 AM
Response To: s402005 PostID 461190

I see no reason why Mr. Swartz would have any interest in manipulating the stock price at this juncture, unless he has the power to raise it. In years gone by, the future of PTSC was much more uncertain than it is now --- although the company had several potential avenues to explore (and believe me, the long-timers here have seen them all), it had no real direction and no concrete business plan by which to make a profit. Thus, during those years, anyone in Mr. Swartz' position would naturally have looked only at the movement of the stock price, in and of itself, in order to make a return on the dollars that had been loaned to PTSC in order to keep the company alive.

Now, at least IMO, the situation has drastically changed. PTSC has a definitive plan and is executing same in textbook fashion --- the ''street level'' actions occur through the efforts of TPL, while David Pohl is doing an excellent job of managing things ''at home''. The company is profitable and even paying a dividend, and the business plan, which is, first, to collect from infringers, and second, to develop existing technology and perhaps acquire others, is literally at a ''tip of the iceberg'' stage. And quite significantly, Mr. Swartz has no longer has substantial debentures in place.

The point of all of the above is that I cannot see why anyone would want to be short PTSC right now --- and if one has no interest in being short, he must be long. It seems to me that Mr. Swartz has the chance here to make many (more) millions of dollars (anyone can do the math on this), with the company's financial prospects still in their infancy. Why would anyone in such a position not want the price to increase? I am not saying it is impossible, and I certainly am not the brightest guy out there, but it would take ''smarts'' that are well beyond my capacity.

Having said the above, does this mean that Mr. Swartz will not act in his own best interest? Of course not. I expect that he will sell off at the price increases --- just as I have been urging everyone here, including me, to do for a couple of years now. We certainly cannot expect that Mr. Swartz will hold his shares forever, just as none of us intends to do so. However, I continue to hope that Mr. Swartz will do his selling RESPONSIBLY (as he appears to have done over at least the last couple of months), so as not to, in effect, ''cap'' the price. That is all I have ever asked of him, i.e., I have repeatedly said that I do not care if he makes a bazillion bucks as long as the retail shareholders have the opportunity to make a good return on their investment. By getting rid of the debentures and taking a ''reporting level interest'' in PTSC, Mr. Swartz certainly appears to have acted in a responsible manner, which we all hope will continue.

In summary, PTSC is now a PERFORMING company, just as all of us, including Mr. Swartz, wanted it to be. I would never say that it is time now to just sit back and relax, but IMO, it is time to let the price go to whatever heights are possible while PTSC/TPL are in the driver's seat.

Good luck to all."

EliteG,

In case you are reading this thread, what do you think about PTSC now? Alos how about considering this for 3pennies?

Lalitha

Its hard to guess PTSC moves, but it has potential to move 20% anyway on any given day. Whatever, I think it will challenge resistance near 2 in next week.

Email alert from hawk associates for PTSC:

http://www.eetimes.com/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=181504068&pgno=1

PTSC is forming a tightening coil. Ready to explode to the upside?

You may be right after looking at wide span chart.

Short term weekly charts, it shows volume dropping everyday by 50% compounded and PPS going down.

According to IBD and EliteG and technical traders rules: Such type of short term situation states: Stock has lost its interest in market and investors and traders have bailed out.

They have couple of dozens companies negotiating for early round of licencing. If there is news regarding any settlement with any major tech company ( Especially not Toshiba, Panasonic, Sony), it'll go higher.

One thing I learned in trading: There is no value of "if, but, when" 

Did anyone see 2 cents dividend in etrade account? It doesnt show up for me.

- Dhiraj

La- Onda. Applaud for the posting the article.

Any comments by PTSc investors about not taking recurring revenue ( royalty or licencing fees) from both Japanese companies?

Stock closed at 1.58

- Dhiraj

for those still in this...

a.) nice support at the 20 MA today, and the last 30 min. today was interesting, the stock drove up on pretty high volume and ended at $1.64 (high of day was $1.645).

b.) $1.75 is first resistance, I expect that to be tested as early as tomorrow, but that depends on volume early morning. a nice high volume to start the day off will be good for testing the resistance.

c.) the MACD is inching back up to positive territiory, I expect that to happen by Friday

d.) The RSI is trending back up - nice positive sign

e.) the stochastics are bullish for the short term atleast and I'm sure other chartists would agree on that 

Lot of consolidation over the last 25 days or so sice the 52 week high was created. Most of the trading pattern has been between the $1.30 - 1.70 range. I'm quite satisfied with the amount of churning witnessed during this period, and would dare to bet that once MACD crosses over to positive territory, strong volume will see this stock do a "la XSNX" move right to the high $2's or may be better, depending on news of more settlements with big blue companies.

good luck everybody. 

Vic666

Thanks for your analysis. I am still in this stock but got tired of watching the stock staying flat, I sold some shares.

I sold this and bought GZFX yesterday and now I have a big loss in that.

Can you look at ADVC and tell me what you think about that. i have a few shares in that too.

Other than these I have ORA, ORCL, JDSU, CIEN, AMEP.OB, CMED which I am holding for the long term.

Thanks
Lalitha

lalitha

ADVC looks good, wait fo the indicators to turn back up, and i also think the price might test 50 MA at $0.002 before anothe move up...

here's a chart. good luck! 

PTSC just beginning to break out of the $1.57-1.64 trading range...

keep an eye on it folks.

STTK doing pretty good too!