3SOF

Yesterday's low of 4.25 was smack on the top of the Kumo (Cloud), which is at 4.245.

The 34/55 RSIs are back in synchronicity.  This is where we need a bounce higher.

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 05, 2006, 05:35:36 AM
SVA sold off early this week and surprisingly, with sector-related stocks like GNBT and NVAX in such disarray, last week's low of 4.25 held yesterday.  The  low, which also is my entry price, was 4.25.  I still have only 16% of a position, and I'll leave it at that for now.

Yesterday, GNBT and NVAX tanked early, then rallied.  SVA just tanked.

4.25 support is gone, so we're now down to "last support," if this is a Bullish Inverse H&S pattern forming.  The low of the Left Shoulder in December, 2005 was 3.91.  TA purists would say that the Right Shoulder never can go below the low of the Left Shoulder.  In general, I'd say that's right, more often than not, though I've seen some lower right shoulders that worked out fine.  The target MADE. 

The important thing is that we don't want to deceive ourselves, "hoping" that this is going to turn out bullish as we watch the stock tank into the 3.80s...3.70s...

The 21RSI has gone below the 34RSI.  Sometimes, the shorter-term RSIs have to become "asynchronous" (out of sync) in order for longer-term measures to become synchronous.  While that's occurring, you're "on the ropes," wondering if longer-term RSIs are going to get a bounce off synchronicity.

   

In that case, I defer to the chart.  If 3.91 gets taken out by more than a hair...3.90...3.89, I'll sell my 16% stake in a full position.

Next post: the 144/233 RSIs.     

The 144 RSI reading is 49.8489.
The 233 RSI reading is 49.7789.

144RSI is above 233RSI by 0.07.

I agreed with you Melf Elf,
here is a another chart about the inverse Head and Shoulder pattern formation

Quote from: phabrux on April 06, 2006, 09:52:15 AM
here is a another chart about the inverse Head and Shoulder pattern formation

Thanks for the nice chart, Phabrux.  Applause.  We'll see if the Right Shoulder holds.

It's getting interesting now > 3.92!   

Quote from: Se7en on April 06, 2006, 12:00:14 PM
It's getting interesting now > 3.92!   

Yeah, they're taking us to the wall...the low now is 3.91, exactly the low of the Left Shoulder.



I'll be out if we start sliding here, and be grateful that I only had a 16% position.

If it slides further, maybe we can 'go' for the double bottom?

Quote from: Se7en on April 06, 2006, 12:24:55 PM
If it slides further, maybe we can 'go' for the double bottom?

Hey, why not?     

Sold at 3.89, which is a loss of about 1.4% on the 16% of a long postion. 

We won't discuss the fact that this devil dares to rally, after I sold it at 3.89, FOUR TICKS above the low, at 3.85!!!  LOL.

...EVIL...EVIL...EVIL...EVIL...EVIL...

6:42AM Sinovac Biotech completes immunization schedule in Phase I clinical trial of its proprietary avain influenza vaccine (H5N1) (SVA) 4.12 : Co announces that all 120 volunteers in the Phase I clinical trial of its avian influenza vaccine (H5N1) have completed the two shot regimen of either the vaccine or a placebo. All 120 volunteers (aged 18 - 60 years) in the clinical trial were thoroughly evaluated and medically documented prior to entering the vaccination program. The clinical trial was conducted on a 0 and 28 day dose immunization schedule. Co expects to take blood samples from volunteers to analyze the antibody growth and effectiveness of the vaccine.

up in the pre market 3.5%
maxi

I've read on message boards that Reuters reported that there exists some medical evidence that the current strain acrtually can't mutate into the human to human transmition strain that we all fear.

Has anyone read this article first hand or know anything about this?

Thanks always Melf Elf for your TA.  I remembered when U were being bashed when you said u were considering shorting SVA.  U were right, however. 

Quote from: logocovet on April 17, 2006, 08:02:53 PM
Thanks always Melf Elf for your TA. I remembered when U were being bashed when you said u were considering shorting SVA. U were right, however.

logocovet,

Thanks, although I think that it was more a case of being a little bit wary when "everybody knows it," and having an open mind about looking in the other direction.  When we broke important support in late October, I wondered if we had just seen an important top in SVA:

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 28, 2005, 02:30:35 PM
That reminds me of the market maxim: "When the news is great...it's too late."

Although we will hear alot more news about bird flu and about contracts being awarded, etc., when I see a stock like SVA break serious support today, I have at least to consider the possibility that
"the news is great...but, it's too late." 

October 17 turned out to be a significant top.  Although we got all 3 of our bullish pattern targets to the upside  in November, on the rally to the secondary top, that was it for the upside.

Quote
I've read on message boards that Reuters reported that there exists some medical evidence that the current strain acrtually can't mutate into the human to human transmition strain that we all fear.

Has anyone read this article first hand or know anything about this?

I don't, but one of the reasons that I recently attempted  "a walk on the wildside," (long position) is that the chart shaped up, but now "everybody hates it," and we're hearing negative things, like the Reuters report that you mention.  Volume on this erstwhile "momo" stock is down to a tickle in recent days.

There's a chance that this Inverse H&S pattern still could work out, even though I got stopped out on the 3.85 dip below the Left Shoulder (the 3.91 low of December 21, 2005).  It would be an "unorthodox," Inverse H&S pattern, since the Right Shoulder "shouldn't" violate the low of the Left Shoulder, but I've seen them work out, and that "dip" to 3.85 sure would be a GREAT Bear Trap! 

If I hadn't stopped the trade out there, I'd be break even, as of yesterday's close, so as the chart stands right now, I was one of the ones who got trapped into thinking that the break of 3.91 was bearish!  So far, it wasn't, and I'm now forced to "pay up" if I want back in. 

"When the chart has bullish possibilities, and we're hearing news that sounds  bearish, I at least want to consider the possibility of a rally." (The reverse of October/November, 2005)

Still considering...     

I'm wounded from being "faked out" (Bear Trap) on that dip below 3.91.    

EVIL...EVIL...EVIL..

Rallying like crazy without news. Trading @ 4.60. Anybody know anything?