3SOF

down 10% in premarket 

NVAX: RBC Capital Cuts to Underperform from Sector Perform; Sets Tgt @ $3; Analyst Notes
Thursday , April 06, 2006 07:55 ET
Issuer: Novavax, Inc. (NasdaqNM: NVAX)
Analyst Firm:  RBC Capital Markets
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Underperform (from Sector Perform)
Target Price: $3.00
Analyst Comments: The firm believes that NVAX's run from under $2 to the current $6-$7 range over the last 6 months is based on fear of an avian flu outbreak, not sound fundamental valuation of the company. The expectations for NVAX are way ahead of the company's ability to deliver a safe functioning vaccine that has been tested in humans with validated commercial scale manufacturing.

Quote from: la-onda on April 06, 2006, 08:41:41 AM
down 10% in premarket 

Thanks, Oliver.  So much for rallying to 7.00-7.12 resistance, eh?

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 04, 2006, 04:07:02 PM
The break of the Double Top puts a target of 5.69 IN PLAY, near the 50DMA.

The Double Top target: 5.69 MADE this morning.  And, more...

There's a gap below here at 5.12-5.21 that NVAX might want to fill.

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 10, 2006, 10:24:15 AM
[There's a gap below here at 5.12-5.21 that NVAX might want to fill.

That didn't take long!

Melf
This little sell off (40%+) has peaked my interest. This stock may be broken but with 100mil in cash I'm going to take a serious look at this 5.00 to 4.50 level. I've had to play catch-up here because I lost track of this one after I got stopped out at 7.39. It looks to me as though this decline is driven by RBC's comments which frankly aren't any different than last year. I can't find any comments from the company except the PP, which makes management look like a genius. Anyway, I'm going to see if the 4.75 level can hold and take a shot at this on any lower open tomorrow. If that doesn't work I'll try to re enter around 4.20 where the stock did a lot of work. If you have any thoughts regarding better levels let me know. I guess that fishing trip to Cabo saved me some serious money had I been around I would have bought this back at 6.20 for sure.

Quote from: 1reilly on April 10, 2006, 05:43:26 PM
Melf
This little sell off (40%+) has peaked my interest. This stock may be broken but with 100mil in cash I'm going to take a serious look at this 5.00 to 4.50 level.

Mike,

The bottom of Kumo came in yesterday at 5.015.  The December high of 4.88 is the top of support, prior to the Symmetrical Triangle breakout in late February, 2006.  Yesterday's low of 4.93 was right in that 4.88-501.5 support.

There's alot of "possible" support below 4.88 from the work that the stock did last winter in the Symmetrical Triangle pattern, but I wouldn't like to see NVAX go very much below the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud), or yesterday's low.

When a stock does that, it suggests a trend change, and the Kumo (Cloud) often becomes resistance on snap back rallies.

Quote
If that doesn't work I'll try to re enter around 4.20 where the stock did a lot of work. If you have any thoughts regarding better levels let me know.

If NVAX can't hold in this area, I'm thinking all the way back to the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle/the top of Ascending Triangle, which was 3.94 (solid horizontal blue line). 

The Kumo (Cloud) basis the weekly chart is 3.35 - 3.5425 if RBC is determined to talk it down.

QuoteI guess that fishing trip to Cabo saved me some serious money had I been around I would have bought this back at 6.20 for sure.

Whew...saved from the quell.   

Hope you had fun!

Melf
Thanks for the great feed back. You've given me real definition to my plan, and I'll follow your numbers because they're clearer than mine. You might want to take a look at INSM this AM C.E. Unterberg out with new Buy rec with tgt of 3.
Mike

PS Cabo San Lucas is no longer the secret it was 5-7yrs ago, but it is a great place to get away. Try it.

Quote from: 1reilly on April 11, 2006, 09:03:11 AM
Melf
Thanks for the great feed back. You've given me real definition to my plan, and I'll follow your numbers because they're clearer than mine. You might want to take a look at INSM this AM C.E. Unterberg out with new Buy rec with tgt of 3.
Mike

Mike,

Thanks for the INSM info.  I'll post a chart in the INSM folder.

Well that plan didn't work. In at 5.01 out at 4.85. I probably could have picked a better market environment to try this play. Tomorrow's another day. Hope I was the only one to try this today. This stock is under assault and it may take federal funding to turn this one.

Quote from: 1reilly on April 11, 2006, 05:03:46 PM
Well that plan didn't work. In at 5.01 out at 4.85.

Mike,

Applaud your decision. 

Right or wrong, I think that you were wise to get out of there on the break of support in the low 4.90s.  Taking a loss is never fun, but NVAX is in a dead drop at this point, and is acting very weak.

QuoteThis stock is under assault

Good description.

NVAX tried to bottom in the low 4.90s the past couple of days, and even had a little breakout above 5.23-5.24, but that went nowhere.  The "rally" was about eight cents...it got stopped at 5.32, then they tanked it, and took out support late yesterday afternoon.

After support in the 4.90s got taken out, it rallied back to about 4.89 (former support in the low 4.90s became resistance), then they closed it out at the low of the day.  Nasty.

Let's start a new thread for shorting...

NVAX 3

Hi Terlisa,

Your technical analysis makes sense and you seem to know what you are doing when you short (I was impressed a couple of months back when you shorted GIGM at the perfect time). 

I would just say maybe keep a tighter than normal stop on it because the "experts" were predicting the arrival of H5N1 bird flu in Alaska within 3 weeks at the beginning of April.  So if they are right, that is due to happen any day now, and though its still months after that before it hits mainland USA, the hype can cause a spike in bird flu stocks.

Good luck!

Thanks for the reminder Tokyopua, I always put tight stop especially when I short stocks..
I don't have position yet in NVAX i'm still timing my entry point it might go up a little bit more say 5.40 to 5.60 just below 50 SMA...from there, i'll take that opportunity to short it while NVAX still bearish...

I like what the indicators show me here...the MACD just completed the crossover, the stochastics are very bullish and the RSI is turning back up north.

what do you guys say?? is this a confiremd up move for sometime to come??? I say YES! 

The 20 MA was taken out today. Next resistance is the 50MA at $6.08.