3SOF

The contract signed represents major impact on ESLR.

This contract 100 M USD in 4 years represents a turnover of 25 M USD/Year.

If you cnsider that in 2004 the sales were 24 M USD and in 2005 about 45 M USD the impact is an increase on sales of almost 60% (based on sales 2005)

realy a major contract !!!


UP trend is here to stay!

Piper Jaffray raises its price target on ESLR 

Piper Jaffray raises its price target on Evergreen Solar, Inc. (Nasdaq: ESLR) from $14 to $18, says ESLR is doing an excellent job executing on its production ramp and technology roadmap. Maintains its Outperform rating.

UUUUP TOMORROW

upgraded 

price target 21 $ 

7 slides analysis update:
http://www.knobias.com/research.pdf?id=3969

cheers
O.

please use search functionality before posting 

thanks

MR WILLIAMS BROWN (vp) buying shares ... look :

http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=4011842

update:
http://www.knobias.com/research.pdf?id=4306

ESLR had a nice bounce at 12.53 on wednesday. After being extremely oversold I figured to play ESLR as a dead cat bounce. Bought in at 13.41 on wednesday and currently ESLR stands at 14.04 up 4% today. I think ESLR has a good chance of breaking resistance in the high 14s and heading to 15. Check out ESLR on monday see where this girl is going to go.

I have been unable to follow my portfolio for some months this year ... and - looking at the chart of ESLR I missed out on some good trades!

Up to over $17 
Down to below $13 

I'm still in the green though (in at 12.14) and happy to see that it is climbing again.
And I'm holding...

I'll add charts...

As solar power is a big interest of mine, I keep an eye on them...or at least some of them.

DSTI, ESLR and ENER have been around for a while, STP and SPWR has only been traded since late last year.

Maybe the attatched chart could interest some of you?

cumulina,

I just finished looking at ESLR and was going to do a search, and found your post right at the top of the page, 8 minutes ahead of me!  Weird, huh!?

ESLR completed a Double Top on March 20, putting 12.44 IN PLAY.  Wednesday's low was 12.53.

On the way to the target, ESLR broke decisively below a H&S Toip on April 11.  It's now back for a re-test of the broken neckline. 

Former support right here at the neckline "should be" resistance now.

9.96 is IN PLAY as long as ESLR is below the neckline of the H&S Top.  It closed above it by a few cents, so the target is ON HOLD unless/until ESLR closes back below the neckline.

If ESLR can close above the 50DMA and the down trendline off the top (blue line), that would look better, but right now the chart looks bearish.  Just my two cents.  Good luck!

Monday is really going to be a big day to decide where this stock will go. Will it break thru the 50DMA or will it drop more or linger around in the 13s-14s. I have a feeling its going to try to break thru the 50DMA on monday hopefully its sucessful.

Quote from: nullzero on April 14, 2006, 09:18:54 PM
Monday is really going to be a big day to decide where this stock will go. Will it break thru the 50DMA or will it drop more or linger around in the 13s-14s. I have a feeling its going to try to break thru the 50DMA on monday hopefully its sucessful.

nullzero,

Yes, that would be a big plus, if ESLR can stay above the neckline, then get above its 50DMA and the down trendline resistance (blue line on my chart above).  It doesn't have to be on Monday, but soon.



ESLR reports earnings on April 26.  If earnings were coming out Monday morning, this chart, with the stock sitting at a re-test of the neckline after a H&S Top breakdown,  looks poised to get whacked to the downside.

Some 3SOF members have sworn off holding stocks through earnings completely, given the pounding that they can receive if the market doesn't like it.  I don't blame them at all.   I take it on a stock by stock basis.   ESLR is one that I definitely would have sold on Friday, if earnings were being reported on Monday, just based on G.P.s (general principles).  The chart looks too dangerous.

"Discretion is the better part of valor." 

ESLR needs to show some muscle and rally back into and through the right shoulder because former support (the neckline) "should be" resistance .

"Sell, or sell short, at known resistance," and we're right there at resistance, at Friday's close.

In addition to the H&S Top, we can see "at a glance" on the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart that "the table of balance" has shifted.  The Kumo (Cloud) is the vertical green lines.  It offers support or resistance.

We can see "at a glance" (it's a quick eyeball thing) that the Cloud (Kumo) has been below prices, offering support, since ESLR broke out of a Symmetrical Triangle in August, 2005.

When ESLR made a low of 9.95 near the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) in December, 2005, ESLR took off again to the upside. (The H&S Top, incidently, put Target: 9.96 IN PLAY)

The Kumo (Cloud), however, didn't offer support on the H&S Top breakdown last week, and it's now above the stock, representing resistance.  We hear the expression "it represents an overhang on the market."  The Kumo (Cloud) can act very much like that.

Stocks have a much easier time rallying, like ESLR did coming out of the Symmetrical Triangle breakout in August, 2005, when there's no "overhang" on the stock.  ESLR was "soaring above the cloud (Kumo)," so to speak.  That no longer is the case. 

That doesn't mean that ESLR can't rally through the Kumo (Cloud), of course.  It just means that we can see "at a glance" that the Kumo (Cloud) now represents some technical difficulty for the stock.

Kumo (Cloud) resistance currently is 14.675-15.77.

Good to see your charts and comments, Melf Elf.

I'm flipping coins to see if I should sell or hold - It might be a "sell" as I've never gained anything by holding a stock over earnings.

BUT: The new factory in Germany is beginning to produce solarpanels now, and there is no problems with supplies of silicon... soooo - It might be a "hold" also! This could be the time where the stock just took off, leaving me behind....

I guess I'll flip some more coins!

Glad to hear your views on this.

Cheers.

Quote from: cumulina on April 15, 2006, 07:58:07 AM
Good to see your charts and comments, Melf Elf.

I'm flipping coins to see if I should sell or hold - It might be a "sell" as I've never gained anything by holding a stock over earnings.

Thanks, cumulina.  I know what you mean.

Quote
BUT: The new factory in Germany is beginning to produce solarpanels now, and there is no problems with supplies of silicon... soooo - It might be a "hold" also! This could be the time where the stock just took off, leaving me behind....

I don't see much chance of that, but I always can be wrong.

As far as the fundamentals that you mentioned are concerned, that "good news" very likely is more than priced into the stock.  The reason that I say that, is the fact that ESLR has rallied 800% in less than two years, but over the past five years, they've reported a loss every quarter.

That's an incredible rally, "betting on the come," meaning that investors have been willing to pay as much as 800% more for the stock than it was worth less than two years ago, predicated on the idea that  "someday" there will be earnings. 

"We've already paid for good earnings.  What have you done for me lately?"

That's where the "counterintuitive" factor in the marketplace comes in.  Why do stocks sell off on good earnings?  Because stocks rally in anticipation of good earnings, and when the good news comes out, that good news already has been priced into the stock.   In that sense, it really isn't as counterintuitive as it might first appear to be.  The market is a discounting mechanism, generally said to anticipate about six months out.  ESLR has been anticipating for nigh on two years.

"Buy the rumor/anticipation of good earnings....Sell the good news."

April 26, ESLR is expected to report another loss of $0.14.  Let's say that the company reports much better than expected earnings...let's say, a break even quarter, beating The Street estimate by a wide margin.  That would be great news!

But, here's how that often plays out:

1, The stock gets called higher, and might even rally that day, and the next day.  But, then "reality" sets in.

2. The stock has rallied 800%, as I mentioned, as the "reality" is that, even though earnings might come out much better than expected, the company still hasn't reported a gain in any quarter these last five years.   In other words, shareholders already have paid for a great quarter, rallying the stock this much on no earnings.

The stock, in that sense, is "ahead of itself."

For the year ending December, 2007 the estimates of 11 analysts are all over the board, from a low of a loss of $0.17 to a high of $0.43.  The average is $0.02.  Not so great in terms of where the current price is, if ESLR reports only the average of $0.02 for the year in December, 2007.

3. The reality of the technicals often "kick in," and the technicals could trump any good fundamentals with a 3-month Bearish H&S top IN PLAY.   

Good luck with whatever you decide, cumulina! 

ESLR has been "Cramer'ized" today:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/pom/pomsut/10278943.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

I guess there will be a "pop" - and then, as usual, the stock will fall back to normal.

Right now (10 min. before open) it's up 1.85% ...

I really wish Cramer would stay away from "my" stocks!