3SOF

eslr still making new highs today up over 3%

Shorted ESLR at 14.48, for technical reasons cited in weekend posts.

Quote from: cumulina on April 17, 2006, 09:22:48 AM
ESLR has been "Cramer'ized" today:

cumulina,

Thanks, for that information.  Applause.  I wondered why ESLR gapped higher this morning.  

Hehe im on the opposite side of the fence. I bought at 13.40 to play eslr for a couple days im probley selling today though.

sold at 14.53... lol now watch ESLR rally past 14.59 without me knowing my luck sometimes might happen.

Nice gain for you, nullzero.

Melf Elf: I can't say that I wish you good luck with your short - because I'm still holding!

So far ESLR has been moving my way, and I'm not complaining. 

Will keep a sharp eye on it though.

Cheers!

Quote from: cumulina on April 17, 2006, 11:22:52 AM
Nice gain for you, nullzero.

Yes, nice gain, nullzero!

Quote
Melf Elf: I can't say that I wish you good luck with your short - because I'm still holding!

cumulina,

I completely understand.   

Quote
So far ESLR has been moving my way, and I'm not complaining. 

I got a little selloff this afternoon, so I'm in the black, too,... by a few pennies.  Maybe we both ought to quit while we're ahead.

 

I shorted at 14.48, just below the down trendline (in blue...see chart at the top of this page).
That down trendline came in today at 14.505. 

The Cramer "BOOYAH gap" this morning was at 14.40.  I'd like to see a close near there, for a Bearish Doji Star below the down trendline (the blue one, again, at the top of this page)

ESLR currently is BID 14.42...ASK 14.44

ESLR doing nice today it may break 15. May of sold a little early on my trade but its good to take some profit then none . Rising Oil prices can be giving ESLR that needed boost to rally.

I also took some profit,  sold half of my ESLR.

I'll probably buy them back if the price gets down some...or else I'll just enjoy those I kept.

I'm really enjoying myself today!

Cheers.

Quote from: nullzero on April 18, 2006, 01:03:29 PM
ESLR doing nice today it may break 15. May of sold a little early on my trade but its good to take some profit then none . Rising Oil prices can be giving ESLR that needed boost to rally.

nullzero,

ESLR's 50DMA was at 14.88 yesterday.  14.88 was a little double top today, but ESLR just broke through it, so you're probably right about 15.00.  I would peg next resistance at 15.05 - 15.25.

15.25 was the April 6 high, prior to the drop to 12.53 on April 12.

ESLR currently is BID 14.88...ASK 14.89, re-testing the 50DMA.

Quote from: cumulina on April 18, 2006, 01:22:09 PM
I also took some profit, sold half of my ESLR.

I'm really enjoying myself today!

That's great, cumulina! 

Quote from: nullzero on April 18, 2006, 01:03:29 PM
ESLR doing nice today it may break 15.

nullzero,

ESLR closed at 14.91, above its 50DMA at 14.894, and is called higher this morning, above your 15.00.  Applause.

Current indication is BID 15.01...ASK 15.13.

So far, my short isn't going well.   

If ESLR can take out the top of the Kumo (Cloud), currently at 15.76, and the high of the Right Shoulder of the H&S top (15.79), I'll have to concede, and cover my short. 

Risk: a loss of about 9% from my entry short at 14.48.

Man sorry to hear . I knew I pulled the trigger little early on ESLR but im happy with my profits. I traded ESLR many times before and kind of have a sixth sense of how ESLR trades. Would of been up 15%  If i sold today but I got a strong feeling ESLR is going to test new highs soon. The oil prices are pushing this guy up and also the over selling due to a panic on supplies which is not as bad as people made it out. I would look for a good point to cover melf sorry about the bad trade so far

Quote from: nullzero on April 19, 2006, 11:31:15 AM
Man sorry to hear . I knew I pulled the trigger little early on ESLR but im happy with my profits.

nullzero,

Thanks, and I'm glad that you had a good trade.

QuoteI traded ESLR many times before and kind of have a sixth sense of how ESLR trades. Would of been up 15%  If i sold today but I got a strong feeling ESLR is going to test new highs soon. The oil prices are pushing this guy up and also the over selling due to a panic on supplies which is not as bad as people made it out.

You're probably right on both of those.  Applause.

Sometimes the fundamentals trump the technicals, and this looks to be one of those cases, even though its unusual for a stock to break the neckline of a H&S top, like ESLR did, and then go up and take out the Right Shoulder (which is 15.79, in this case). 

It happens, though, and that's why we use stops.   

Quote
I would look for a good point to cover melf

I thought about covering yesterday's 14.91 close, above the 50DMA, but decided to "play it out," to to the Right Shoulder (15.79).  Covering yesterday turns out to have been a good play, but we have to make choices without the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, don't we? 

I'm always half-tempted to abandon a trade when I'm this close to being stopped out, but many times I've done that, and the trade would have worked out, if I had left it alone.

It sure doesn't look like this trade is going to work out, but I planned my trade...so, I'll trade my play.  Stop: above 15.79.  A 9% loss is acceptable. 

Some you win...some you lose.   

Quote
sorry about the bad trade so far

You're a pal, nullzero.  Thank you.   

Yeah, good try melf on ESLR. Some you win some you loose, take a look at going the long side I think ESLR will see 17 again very soon. I wouldnt be suprised if it hit 16 and closed in the high 15s today.

Quote from: nullzero on April 19, 2006, 12:11:02 PM
Yeah, good try melf on ESLR. Some you win some you loose, take a look at going the long side I think ESLR will see 17 again very soon. I wouldnt be suprised if it hit 16 and closed in the high 15s today.

nullzero,

If ESLR takes out this right shoulder, and it sure looks like it's going to (the high so far is just a hair below 15.79, at 15.75), chances look very good that it will go back to the high. 

Then, if ESLR can take out the high of the Head, it could go a lot higher.  I don't see that real often, but it happens.

GIGM is a great example of that, and its H&S top was much smaller than the one in ESLR.

GIGM broke below a H&S top, then put in a "double neckline" at 3.90.  It quickly went back above the first neckline, so the downside target went ON HOLD, like ESLR, when it closed back above its neckline last Thursday. which I mistakenly thought was a bull trap. 

Look how GIGM "strung it out" for awhile, back above the neckline, then it took out the Right Shoulder (4.96) on a gap up on March 20, successfully re-tested the 4.96 on March 22 (the low was 4.97).  Then it gapped up again, above the high of the Head!

When a stock does that, you can take the target measurement for the H&S Top (math is on the chart), and add it to the top of the Head for your target.

GIGM printed 7.30 this morning, just shy of the target.

Kinda kewl, huh? 

Now, if only I had been watching GIGM when it did that!    

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 17, 2006, 10:22:40 AM
Shorted ESLR at 14.48, for technical reasons cited in weekend posts.

Covered the short at 15.76.  Loss: 8.8%

ESLR printed highs of 15.75 over and over, so I covered the print of 15.76 and didn't stand on ceremony, waiting for 15.80 to get printed.