3SOF

Just a comment. I can understand selling MSPD according to plan (close below 3.80), but the rationale for selling TQNT before it either went up or reached the stop of $4.80 is inexplicable to me, especially in the light of today's action. Both stocks moved up. What happened to plan the trade, trade the plan?

I pay to get advice that I could not give myself. Otherwise, why be a member. So I rely on it to be well-considered. I am not certain it was. So, please don't come down too hard on someone, who lost alot of money on today's advice. I did not sell, by the way. Probably dumb luck, but.......

Question: What is the level of sophistication that is required to use the recommendations on this site with some independence?

Bobbi

Quote from: labelladonna on April 18, 2006, 05:21:40 PM
Just a comment. I can understand selling MSPD according to plan (close below 3.80), but the rationale for selling TQNT before it either went up or reached the stop of $4.80 is inexplicable to me, especially in the light of today's action. Both stocks moved up. What happened to plan the trade, trade the plan?

I pay to get advice that I could not give myself. Otherwise, why be a member. So I rely on it to be well-considered. I am not certain it was. So, please don't come down too hard on someone, who lost alot of money on today's advice. I did not sell, by the way. Probably dumb luck, but.......

Question: What is the level of sophistication that is required to use the recommendations on this site with some independence?

Bobbi

Bobbi - I understand your concern.

A reason for a sell in the portfolio is always given.  In this case check the TQNT thread: http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=5113.0

The original reason for the buy was compromised(A semiconductor rally) therefore the plan must be adjusted to compensate.  Managing a portfolio(one with 15 hot positions) is like working in a garden.  We try to sow the best seeds(picks) but can not control the sun and rain(the market).  We try to give our flourishing plants room to grow and must always take out the weeds.

The 3SOF team have been successful gardeners for quite some time.  This does not mean we are always right but we usually have a good harvest.

We consider it our #1 job to find the members here opportunity(great stock picks).  The portfolio trading strategy is designed for a portfolio divided into 15 slots(taking on 6.66% risk of capital max).  We know that our members may trade differently than we do.. but our results speak for themselves.  Last I checked we are over 230%.

So to sum up.. the 3SOF team is proud of our performance.  Much work, experience and deliberation goes into making our selections and decisions.  It hurts to hear members losing money on a pick but of course that is part of the stock market.  Please take the time to browse through our closed trades and look at our current winners.

G,
Do u never sleep, ur on this website virtually 24/7....please keep up the good work...
B

Sorry for confusion, i'm not blaming anyone, I made the trade and if it was totally outside of 3sof I would have sold next day, as stated above I didn't like the action following my purchase,  the reason I joined 3sof was because there are people here with more experience than me so I pay for their expertise and advice, the reason I lost so much is because of the size of my investment. Perhaps we will see a different TQNT and MSPD after next week when earnings are announced, may have been a good idea just to hold them and wait, I have a feeling thy will both have good reports

The general market is a wicked place right now and deserves some extra attention i think.

Still holding. TL for today stands at $ 3,69. If it's set to close below I'll sell.

Go MSPD go 

Amarens

Thanks, G, for your kind reply. I really appreciate it. Both the content, the metaphor and the civility. Just what I've come to expect from 3stocks.

One thing I've noticed is that occasionally a choice will be made, doesn't appear to pan out, a sell recommendation given, and soon that stock moves up. So, the choice was good, the timing off. For example, I have been trading Canwest Pete (CWPT) for months. It was one of David Randolph's choice.

In any case, from a trader's point of view, (or a baby trader like me), do I just let it go and go on to the next thing, putting it on a watch list?

Thank you again for your response!
Bobbi

G, I read the TQNT thread. Makes perfect sense. Do not let your money lie fallow too long.

Thanks! "I think I've got it!"
Bobbi

Quote from: beroznikmal on April 18, 2006, 11:37:11 PM
G,
Do u never sleep, ur on this website virtually 24/7....please keep up the good work...
B

Sleep?  What is that?    lol this is my virtual home.. thx B. 

Quote from: gharknes on April 19, 2006, 06:17:20 AM
Sorry for confusion, i'm not blaming anyone, I made the trade and if it was totally outside of 3sof I would have sold next day, as stated above I didn't like the action following my purchase, the reason I joined 3sof was because there are people here with more experience than me so I pay for their expertise and advice, the reason I lost so much is because of the size of my investment. Perhaps we will see a different TQNT and MSPD after next week when earnings are announced, may have been a good idea just to hold them and wait, I have a feeling thy will both have good reports

The general market is a wicked place right now and deserves some extra attention i think.

Goodluck with TQNT and MSPD  .. for now they seem to be holding.. and TQNT still has a nice chart.    Holding over earnings is risky business.. we never intended to hold these over earnings.

Quote from: labelladonna on April 19, 2006, 09:07:32 AM
Thanks, G, for your kind reply. I really appreciate it. Both the content, the metaphor and the civility. Just what I've come to expect from 3stocks.

One thing I've noticed is that occasionally a choice will be made, doesn't appear to pan out, a sell recommendation given, and soon that stock moves up. So, the choice was good, the timing off. For example, I have been trading Canwest Pete (CWPT) for months. It was one of David Randolph's choice.

In any case, from a trader's point of view, (or a baby trader like me), do I just let it go and go on to the next thing, putting it on a watch list?

Thank you again for your response!
Bobbi

This is one of the most toughest things to learn.  It's important to be able to let stocks go because your timing is off.. no matter how great they are.  Just keep them on your list and you will be able to pick them up when they do move.  Bottom line:  Your analysis is only right if the market agrees with you..period.

Quote from: labelladonna on April 19, 2006, 09:18:36 AM
G, I read the TQNT thread. Makes perfect sense. Do not let your money lie fallow too long.

Thanks! "I think I've got it!"
Bobbi

exactly 

Quote from: eliteG on April 18, 2006, 10:27:35 PM
  Managing a portfolio(one with 15 hot positions) is like working in a garden.  We try to sow the best seeds(picks) but can not control the sun and rain(the market).  We try to give our flourishing plants room to grow and must always take out the weeds.

  G, I like these words.  I know you are writing a book.  Is about poetry ??   . 

Quote from: nica33 on April 19, 2006, 02:43:52 PM

Quote from: eliteG on April 18, 2006, 10:27:35 PM
  Managing a portfolio(one with 15 hot positions) is like working in a garden.  We try to sow the best seeds(picks) but can not control the sun and rain(the market).  We try to give our flourishing plants room to grow and must always take out the weeds.

  G, I like these words.  I know you are writing a book.  Is about poetry ??   . 

Lol    Yes poetry.. The Art of Stock Warfare

Nice session yesterday. 7+% up 

Still holding. TL for today stands at $ 3,71. If it's set to close below I'll sell.

Amarens

BULL FLAG BREAKOUT:

MSPD had a Bull Flag breakout on March 21, putting Target: 4.55 IN PLAY unless/until the stock closes back below the breakout, or unless/until the stock completes a bearish chart pattern.

MSPD got only to 4.37, at which time (April 6, 7 and 10) it put in a 3-day Bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern.  That wasn't a bearish chart pattern, but it was a bearish candlestick pattern, and a warning.

BEARISH HEAD AND SHOULDERS TOP:

April 17, MSPD closed below the neckline (3.74 - 3.75) of a H&S Top.  As a result:

1. The bearishness of the April 6, 7 and 10 Evening Star Pattern is confirmed.

2. The Bull Flag target of 4.55 is CANCELLED because a bearish pattern completed, which put a bearish target of 3.13 IN PLAY.

3. It would appear, in Elliott Wave parlance, that the rally to the high of 4.37, might have been a "truncated" Wave 5 rally, "truncated" meaning that the rally got "cut off" prior to achieving the target of 4.55 that was IN PLAY.

BULL TRAP RALLY:

Once the neckline (3.74 - 3.75) was broken and closed below, on April 17, MSPD "shouldn't" have been able to get back above the high of the Right Shoulder, which was 3.95.  A print of 3.96, and especially a close above 3.96, would suggest that the breakdown of the H&S Top was a "false breakdown."

MSPD did just that. 

It not only rallied above 3.95, it closed at 3.96 on April 19.  That put the H&S Top target: 3.13 ON HOLD because that looked bullish for MSPD to be able to close above the Right Shoulder.

Shorts are inclined to cover on a close like that, and longs feel more confident about their long postions, so BOTH groups take bullish action: cover shorts, and take long positions.  Obviously, neither group wants to see MSPD close back below the 3.74 - 3.75  neckline.

MSPD did just that.

BULL TRAP IS SPRUNG:

Yesterday, April 24, MSPD closed back below the neckline (3.74 - 3.75) of the H&S Top on fairly heavy volume.

BOTH shorts, who covered the print or close of 3.96, and longs who took new positions at 3.96 are "trapped" there, because they thought it was bullish to close at 3.96.  As the chart stands,  it wasn't.

Thus, a "bull trap."

The H&S Top target: 3.13 is back IN PLAY unless/until MSPD closes back above the neckline (3.74 - 3.75) of the H&S Top.

If MSPD can close above 4.01, the Bull Trap scenario is negated.

I stuck to my plan and sold yesterday at $ 3,85. Still a little loss, but my patience paid of a little .

Great analysis Melfelf. Wow, very impressed.

Amarens

Mindspeed Narrows 2Q Loss
Monday April 24, 5:35 pm ET
Mindspeed Narrows Second-Quarter Loss; Sees Third-Quarter Operating Profit

NEWPORT BEACH, Calif. (AP) -- Mindspeed Technologies Inc., a maker of network processors and routers, said on Monday it narrowed its second-quarter loss, and it expects to achieve an operating profit in the third quarter.

Net loss for the quarter was $7.1 million, or 7 cents per share, narrowed from a loss of $18.4 million, or 18 cents per share, last year. Excluding expenses, the second-quarter loss was $4.3 million, or 4 cents per share. Revenue for the quarter was $34.6 million, up 30 percent from $26.6 million last year.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected the company to report, on average, a loss of 3 cents per share on $34.57 million in revenue.

Looking forward, the company said it expects a 2 percent to 5 percent sequential increase in revenue -- implying third-quarter sales of $35.3 million to $36.3 million. Analysts expect the company to report $36.9 million in revenue.

Mindspeed also said it expects to achieve an operating profit, excluding unusual charges and expenses, for the third quarter.

"We believe that we will achieve operating profitability on a non-GAAP basis in our current third fiscal quarter. This is based on expected strong revenue growth from our VoIP products combined with operating expense reductions, including a modest restructuring as well as several nonrecurring cost-saving measures," Raouf Halim, chief executive, said in a prepared statement.

Shares of Mindspeed were trading at $3.40 in the extended session, down 25 cents, or 3.40 percent, from Monday's closing price of $3.65 on the Nasdaq.

Quote from: Amarens on April 25, 2006, 07:24:43 AM
I stuck to my plan and sold yesterday at $ 3,85. Still a little loss, but my patience paid of a little .

Great analysis Melfelf. Wow, very impressed.

Amarens

Thanks, Amarens.  It looks like you made a good move if MSPD opens near it's last trade in pre-market, at 3.38.  Applause.

It looks like they disappointed the street (when people say that, I always picture a big slab of concete, sobbing).