3SOF

fyi:
25 slide presentation:
http://wsw.com/webcast/rrshq8/nvax/

I'm back in this one late Fri at 5.11. I'm a big believer in VLP technology and love the team of scientists this company has put together. I only bring this stock up because I think that the short assault on this has run it's course unless the 4 dollar level is taken out. I see three very important fundamental events happening in the next three months. Clinical trial results, Gov. funding announcements and Aug quarterly report. I know this chart offers a view for both the short and the long and probably says trade me. I have decided to go back to my roots and bet on this company's business plan and plan to add on setbacks from here. I just might find a real winner here. By the way if you look at this company forget the bird flu sideshow. This is about new vaccine technology and delivery systems. When I do something here I'll post.

Trading Idea:

NVAX break out its descending resistance in late August, after that the stock has been consolidating inside a triangular pattern and showing some signs of strength.
Although this is probably a risky trade, the risk / potential here is interesting, since support could be found near $3.65, we can set an easy trading setup, the upside above the top of the triangle is above $5.00.
I expect a breakout of the triangular pattern to the upside sometime soon, so we're putting some money here.

Trading Plan:
Buy NVAX today at or near the open.

Regards,

Update:
No special development here, NVAX is trading inside the triangle pattern, and we expect an upside breakout soon.

Trading Plan:
Hold NVAX
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $3.60)

Regards,

Out of time for tonight, will leave you the chart.

Update:
Excellent price development here ! Now we got the expected breakout

Some good news today as well:
- Novavax Details Advantages of Portable Manufacturing Process at World Vaccine Congress

With this breakout of the triangular pattern, we have a short term target in play around $4.90 / $5.00, if NVAX gets there this would not be a necessary sell sign, and we are not setting any limit sell order at this time. Volume has increased a bit too, and remains above average. It is crucial to watch a breakout of the previous relative high of $4.43, but with current momentum I think that will be not an issue, although a retest on the breakout level of $4.10 can happen and its perfectly normal.
Lets wait

Trading Plan:
Hold NVAX
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $3.60)

Regards,

Novavax, to me looks to have formed a
Head & Shoulders Bottom (Reversal) Pattern.
Above the 50-day MA, MACD rising.
Moving very nice lately,approaching the 200-day MA.
Also a Breakout from this small Symmetrical Triangle (Continuation) Pattern.

Target $6.50-8.50

Support @ $4.13...3.62...3.33
Resistance @ $5.26...5.52...6.22

52wk Range: 2.35 - 8.39

Volume: 1,521,375
Avg Vol (3m): 1,374,260

Technicals
MACD is Bullish......
Stochastic is Bullish......
Last Price Quote is:
11.44%above 13-day EMA
16.24%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 70 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $224.58 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 11/07/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Sector Perform

More info on.....
Head and Shoulders Bottom (Reversal)
The head and shoulders bottom is sometimes referred to as an inverse head and shoulders. The pattern shares many common characteristics with its comparable partner, but relies more on volume patterns for confirmation.

As a major reversal pattern, the head and shoulders bottom forms after a downtrend, and its completion marks a change in trend. The pattern contains three successive troughs with the middle trough (head) being the deepest and the two outside troughs (shoulders) being shallower. Ideally, the two shoulders would be equal in height and width. The reaction highs in the middle of the pattern can be connected to form resistance, or a neckline.

The price action forming both head and shoulders top and head and shoulders bottom patterns remains roughly the same, but reversed. The role of volume marks the biggest difference between the two. Generally speaking, volume plays a larger role in bottom formations than top formations. While an increase in volume on the neckline breakout for a head and shoulders top is welcomed, it is absolutely required for a bottom.

Head and shoulder bottoms are one of the most common and reliable reversal formations. It is important to remember that they occur after a downtrend and usually mark a major trend reversal when complete. While it is preferable that the left and right shoulders be symmetrical, it is not an absolute requirement. Shoulders can be different widths as well as different heights. Keep in mind that technical analysis is more an art than a science. If you are looking for the perfect pattern, it may be a long time coming.

Analysis of the head and shoulders bottom should focus on correct identification of neckline resistance and volume patterns. These are two of the most important aspects to a successful read, and by extension a successful trade. The neckline resistance breakout combined with an increase in volume indicates an increase in demand at higher prices. Buyers are exerting greater force and the price is being affected.

Rams,
Meu dois centavos valor, localizado aqui ! 

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.510

Comércio feliz para você.
Cumprimentos

Update:
Another breakout for NVAX, confirming the bullish reversal, with a close above its previous relative high. Like stated before the target for the short term run is $4.90/$5.00, the only changes we are doing on the trading plan is a selling suggestion on that price area and an upgraded stop suggestion.

Trading Plan:
Hold NVAX
(We'll not be setting an automatic stop or limit sell order for this position yet, although the suggested stop price would be near $3.95 and the suggested exit level would be near $4.90/$5.00)

Regards,

Update:
Yesterday we had the first real consolidation move after the recent breakout... It was ugly to watch, but it doesn't compromise our trade yet. Although we have to increase the suggested stop level in order to protect profits in this position in case anything goes wrong.
We expect NVAX to quickly move to upside and give continuation to this up swing... But now we have a stop in place, lets see how it goes...

Trading Plan:
Hold NVAX with a stop @ $4.09
(the suggested exit level would be near $4.90/$5.00)

Regards,

Update:
This is a difficult call... Last Friday NVAX traded just 1 tick above our stop level, and most likely we may get stopped today if we keep this stop level today.
I hate to mess with stop levels, but the previous descending resistance line (now an expected support) is spotted today at $4.06, so I'm moving our stop to $4.05 just to see what happens... probably we'll be stopped as well, but at least it will make more sense from a technical point of view...

Trading Plan:
Hold NVAX with a stop @ $4.05
(the suggested exit level would be near $4.90/$5.00)

Regards,

Trading Idea:
Our last stop on NVAX was not good, our technical perspective was right, but the trading plan was not efficient and so we lost our position on NVAX just to watch it move up again.

After this throwback to the reactive zone, NVAX is heading north once again; our expectations about Bird Flu related stocks are still strong for short term as they are showing signs of strength, so we're jumping back into NVAX.

Trading Plan:
Buy NVAX today at or near the open.
(the stop will be provided on the next update, but will probably be placed below the recent relative low)

This one too I have the target price, top of the channel & also the over head resistance @ $5.50...IMHO

I added yesterday as well...mainly b/c I didn't set a stop the first time.   

GLTA....Jody

Update:
NVAX is not showing strength yet... let's wait...

Trading Plan:
Hold with a stop @ $3.85

Best regards,