3SOF

oh well,
gonna put my satop in at 630 and go out for the day. glta
maxi

HOM-Trading halt?

yes halted I was going to short HOM at 6.70 little earlier but was figuring it wasnt worth it with the crazy voltility and a possibly halt.

The trading never stopped though.  NASD was still active and now PACX in in there and the stock is moving up.  Any thoughts?

peix - ready to short ? target MA 50

Hi !

This is just a draft of what could be a trading setup for a Short on CTSH.

I was thinking to add this short position to 3SOF Portfolio, and then I step back... I believe we need a major confirmation from NDX before we start taking some strategic shorts for the Public Portfolio (please see my NDX Analysis on World Markets board).

Trading Idea:
- CTSH made a double top above $69
- Its ascending support was broken last week, and it was retested a few days later.
- We can start plotting what could be a Head & Shoulders inversion pattern, considering shoulder 1 top at $61.20 (April 4) and Shoulder 2 top at $63.90 (last week), the neck is an ascending line right now at $57.50. If this pattern comes to be triggered (breaking down the neckline), the downside target could be around $45 (technically speaking).

2 Possible setups:
- Short CTSH now, with a stop at $64 (this means, not waiting for the H&S confirmation, and using S2 as a stop trigger with about 5% risk)
- (Standby setup) Wait for the neckline to be broken, and short CTSH at $57, putting a 5% stop loss.

Risk: CTSH is a very solid company, with an incredible business concept and apparently great fundamentals.... Very popular (although CTSH is already a 120 bagger from the lows of 1998)

Any inputs about this trading idea?

Best regards !

Its nice to see the team is considering entering in short positions for the profolio. Looks good ramsburg might join in on the short side.

Quote from: Ramsburg on June 08, 2006, 01:22:41 AM
Any inputs about this trading idea?

Frederick,

I like CTSH as a short.  The print of 61.35 on June 5 was a "sell short" pivot.  The stock closed yeaterday at 61.06, very near there.

Review:

Solid green line is similar to an 8-day price-related MACD
Solid red line is similar to a 22-day price-related MACD
Vertical lines are the "Cloud," which acts as support or resistance

1. The green line had a Bearish Cross below the red line in March.  The stock closed below them, but it closed above the Cloud.  Still bullish, but that's a "warning."  We don't want to see the stock close below the Cloud.  That would be another "warning." 

No problem.  CTSH quickly rallied, and the green line made a Bullish Cross above the red line.

2. In mid-April, CTSH had a 4-day selloff.  The green line remained above the red line, so no Bearish Cross, and the stock found support right at the top of the Cloud, then rallied to a new high.

No problem.  Still bullish.

3. In early May, there was a 2-day selloff and CTSH found support right at the red line, then rallied.  That low was 60.75, which some players will use to raise their stop on a long position when the stock makes a new high, which it did.

No problem.  Still bullish.

4. May 22, CTSH sold off to the top of the Cloud, and the green line made a Bearish Cross of the red line.  WARNING.  It also printed a low of 60.57, stopping out anyone who used the prior low of 60.75 as stop.  WARNING.

5. May 23 was a weak rally that failed at the green line.  The high was 64.31.  The stock closed down on the day.

6. May 24 through May 30, CTSH tried to find support at the bottom of the Cloud.  Cloud support held until May 31, when the stock clearly closed below it.  WARNING.

7. After a close below the Cloud, the short-term picture is bearish.  The Cloud now is "overhead," so it acts as RESISTANCE.  Often, a stock fails on a rally to the bottom of the Cloud, or it fails at/near the top of the Cloud.

In this case, CTSH rallied to 63.90 near the top of the Cloud on a Bearish Doji Star Hangman candle, on June 2.  The open and the close were within one penny.

The top of the Cloud is at 64.135.  The low of the June 2 Bearish Doji Star Hangman candlestick was 61.36, so as I said at the outset, 61.35 was a "sell short" pivot.

The June 1-2 rally to the top of the Cloud also was a "second chance" for those who didn't exit long positions on the break of 60.75, when the stock made a "lower low."

8. After a 2-day selloff to the green line, on June 6, CTSH rallied from the green line to the bottom of the Cloud.  Yesterday, the stock rallied a little bit into the Cloud, but it then reversed to the downside.

Summary:

The short-term picture is bearish.  The stock is showing failures and weakness at resistance.  Barring a big gap up, there's not much risk on a short.  Cover above 64.31, which was the May 23 high when CTSH failed at the green line, just after the Bearish Cross.  Risk: a loss of roughly 5.3%.

shorted today near 60, up over 1% now

Drat!  I entered an order to short CTSH at limit 61.05, but they gapped it down to 60.49.  The high so far is 60.59, three cents below Tuesday's 60.63 low.  EDIT: FOUR cents below Tuesday's low. 

IDCC 12 days up today its turning down

Shorted today. bad qtr, institutions upgrading!! Recent acquisition trashed their bottom line, but revenues were strong. Will keep this on a close leash as institutions showing a lot of support for the stock.

Shares of Shuffle Master Inc. (SHFL) were down 7.5% Friday, the day after the gambling equipment maker reported robust revenue growth in its fiscal second quarter but came up short of Wall Street's expectations for the bottom line.

After the close of trading Thursday, Shuffle Master said it lost $12.7 million, or 37 cents a share, in the period ended April 30, a turn from a year-ago profit of $6.8 million, or 19 cents a share. Taking out various charges and acquisition-related expenses, the gambling equipment company would have earned 21 cents a share on a continuing operations basis - a penny short of the average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call.

However, revenue came in at a record $43.3 million, up 60%, and more than $4 million ahead of the Street view. Also, the company said it still expects to earn $1.02 to $1.05 a share for the full fiscal year.

At least one analyst saw opportunity in the valuation slide. In a note to investors, Aimee Marcel of Jefferies & Co. maintained a buy rating and $36 price target on the stock.

"We do not believe these results are truly reflective of what the company can do, and this could make for a good entry point," Marcel wrote. "The company's revenues were up 60% year-over-year, reporting a record 1,200 shuffler sales, and its international mix jumped from 25% of the business to almost 50% of the business."

Shuffle Master shares recently were down $2.76 at $34

Happy to be back from Mexico. it was fun, specially after winning the first game in the World Cup.
========================================================
This thread has developed very nicely and I am glad to see some of you pulling some green in this market.

I am very concerned as many of you about the entire market environment but I am most concerned about the 3SOF Public Portfolio. The YTD performance has diminished dramatically.

With all due respect, I don't understand why to bet 50% of the portfolio in long positions (only 1 is the green) when everything seems to keep going down so far not a single short position. Are we still waiting for major signal from the overall market to change direction?? I am surprise the 3sof Team has not reacted to the present conditions since they are well known to be ahead of the curve. I am a newbie in this business and I guess I must be missing something that makes the 3SOF team invest in long positions. So far I have done what I think it is a safe bet right now which is to sit on my hands and preserve capital.

As always, good luck to you guys and hope you make some cash on these trades$$$
Rafael

Im looking at NEW for a short here is a quick overview and chart of this mortgage lender.

"New Century Financial Corporation operates as a real estate investment trust in the United States. It originates and purchases mortgage loans through two divisions, Wholesale and Retail. The Wholesale division provides loans through a network of independent mortgage brokers and correspondent lenders. It also originates mortgage loans through its FastQual Website at www.newcentury.com, where a broker uploads a loan request. The Retail division operates and originates loans through a consumer-direct channel and a builder/realtor channel, including radio, direct mail, telemarketing, television advertising, and the Internet."

Homebuilders were first... Mortgage lenders are soon to follow

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEW&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08036755381

looking at the chart 50 DMA broken a few days ago 200 DMA right below... support that was in the 44-46 range is broken... cover target 30-35? what do you guys think

Quote from: mexirafa on June 13, 2006, 11:49:51 AM

..... so far not a single short position..... So far I have done what I think it is a safe bet right now which is to sit on my hands and preserve capital.

As always, good luck to you guys and hope you make some cash on these trades$$$
Rafael

You have probably done better than most.    
I am only guessing about the lack of shorting but maybe the complications of shorting have been giving them pause: (1) margin accounts needed, (2) limitations of IRA's, (3) shares not always available in obvious short stocks, and many others I guess.  The  3SOF community is diverse.