3SOF

Solar not doing well today, but I took the opportunity to get into STP also.

Entry at 34.30 - it might be too early, but I wanted to take advantage of the dip today.

Cheers!

Quote from: nullzero on May 13, 2006, 09:12:43 PM
Man Melf you seemed to have had bad luck with timming on ESLR...  The sell off on earnings just confirmed that it was on a downtrend.

nullzero,

Yeah, I was a couple days early.  ESLR already had broken the H&S Top when I shorted it.  I didn't think they'd be able to squeeze me on a takeout of the Right Shoulder, figuring there would be nervousness about being long ahead of earnings, but they did.

Curses!  Rotten devils.   

Quote
any thought Melf on a good short target?

The H&S Top puts roughly 10.50 IN PLAY, but I wouldn't short into the hole here. 

It's down 23.7% off the Bull Trap high of 16.25, so a big percentage of the gain on the short side already has been made.  In fact, I'd be covering some on the return to the 12.53 low if my short had worked out.

Quote from: Melf Elf on April 26, 2006, 04:07:27 PM
nullzero,

You really had a nice entry and exit.  Applause.

Your entry and exit look even better at Friday's close! 

just FYI:
Jeffries 7 slides analysis!
price target 21$

Thank you, la-onda. 

As I'm sitting with some pretty expensive ESLR right now, that little glimps of info was very welcome indeed.

I really can't get into my head why ESLR is being traded in this pricerange, while SPWR and STP is traded so much higher? 
Sure - there are many differences between the 3, but with ESLR having their supply of silicon secured till end of 07, the new facility in Germany beginning production, - I would imagine people fighting for the shares!

Oh, well. 

If I understood the market I'd be rich.  But I don't and I'm not. 

Good luck to all of us...

fyi 

8 slides alternative energy US analysis (incl. ESLR):

http://www.knobias.com/research.pdf?id=5471

fyi:

ESLR: Short Interest DN 5.7% to 12.7M in May 2006
Wednesday, May 24, 2006 16:18 ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Evergreen Solar, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: ESLR) DECREASED 5.7% to 12,737,212 shares for the month ended mid-May, 2006.

SYMBOL             APRIL             MAY          CHANGE       %CHANGE     DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
ESLR          13,507,383      12,737,212        -770,171        -5.70%           6

Based on ESLR's 20-day average daily share volume of 2,252,500, it would require approximately 6 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

rebounding, time for reentry?

31 slides presentation:
http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/12/123/123321/items/184365/eslr_0506.pdf

check the MACD crossing 

2nd part of attachments 

And here we go...

News out yesterday after the close, and the trade was delightful to watch!

Right now (pre-market) ESLR is trading around 12.00

**************

AP
Ahead of the Bell: Evergreen Solar Rises
Tuesday June 6, 9:01 am ET
Evergreen Solar Stock Rises on New Joint Venture Partner, Analyst Upgrade

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of solar-power product maker Evergreen Solar Inc. rose in premarket trading Tuesday after the company said its EverQ joint venture has obtained enough supply materials to boost production capacity tenfold and an analyst encouraged by the news upgraded the stock.

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Shares of the Marlboro, Mass.-based company gained 62 cents, or 5.5 percent, to $11.91 in premarket trading on the INET electronic exchange. Shares closed at $11.29 Monday on the Nasdaq.

After the close Monday, Evergreen Solar said Renewable Energy Corp. of Norway will supply EverQ with 7,400 metric tons of granular polysilicon over seven years, and will become a partner in the EverQ joint venture in exchange.

EverQ's plant in Thalheim, Germany, which produces solar panels, is expected to ramp production capacity to 300 megawatts by 2009, from 30 megawatts, thanks to the increased polysilicon supply.

ThinkEquity Partners analyst David Edwards upgraded his rating on the company's stock to "Accumulate" from "Source of Funds" and said the announced changes facilitate more rapid expansion of the EverQ joint venture than previously expected.

"Based on our increased confidence in the company's production ramp and the recent pullback in the stock, we are upgraded our rating," Edwards said in a client note.

Nice day for ESLR!

Hope some of you made money on this...

I just HAVE to post these charts.

It had a nice bounce off the MA 50 yesterday !

A bit of good news:


AP
Ahead of the Bell: EverGreen Solar Up
Thursday June 8, 9:27 am ET
EverGreen Solar Shares Rise As Analyst Upgrades Stock on Recent Silicon Supply Agreement

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of EverGreen Solar Inc., which manufactures solar cells, rose before the bell Thursday, as an analyst upgraded the stock.

Shares of Evergreen Solar gained 38 cents, or 3 percent, to $12.80 in premarket electronic trading. In a 52-week period, the stock has traded from $5.73 to $17.50. Shares of the company closed Wednesday at $12.42 on the Nasdaq.

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Thomas Weisel Partners upgraded the stock on Wednesday to "Outperform" from "Peer Perform," encouraged by the company's secure silicon supply.

"We believe EverGreen Solar's recent agreement for silicon supply through 2014 removes a key uncertainty and provides greater visibility into our 2007 revenue forecast," analyst Kevin Monroe said in a client note.

On Monday, the solar cell manufacturer announced Norway's Renewable Energy Corp. agreed to supply its EverQ joint venture with 7,400 metric tons of granular polysilicon over seven years, beginning in 2008. Silicon is used to make solar cells.

nullzero,

I just looked at the ESLR chart for the first time in a few weeks and noticed that it got to within FOUR CENTS of the H&S Top target of 9.96 that was IN PLAY. 

Salt to my wounds.      

I still think that covering the short squeeze above the Right Shoulder was the right play.  Those can get ugly on the upside.  But, I shouldn't have been shy about shorting that second break of the neckline.  It was good for a 30% gain.

Coulda...shoulda...woulda...

I basically had it right about the H&S Top and the anticipation of "sell the news" on earnings.  It sold off a total of 38%.  But, I LOST 8 or 9% in the short squeeze!

Drat! 

The market keeps me humble, though.   

update:
ESLR: Short Interest UP 9.2% to 13.9M in Jun 2006
Monday , June 26, 2006 16:17 ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Evergreen Solar, Incorporated (NasdaqNM: ESLR) INCREASED 9.2% to 13,905,551 shares for the month ended mid-June, 2006.

SYMBOL               MAY            JUNE          CHANGE       %CHANGE   DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
ESLR          12,737,212      13,905,551      +1,168,339        +9.17%           7

Based on ESLR's 20-day average daily share volume of 2,196,820, it would require approximately 7 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

Ascending Triangle looks to be shaping up nicely.  RSIs look good. MACD went above its zero line on June 29.  The breakout is above 13.18-13.20.