3SOF

I'm still holding... As you can see 50dma slope is turning down I think price will follow soon.

Stop 6.45

Quote from: rickjust on June 19, 2006, 02:19:19 PM
hi,
brcd now finding upside support at the 50ma at 612.
bulls are winning this one. lots of buying at the ask today in this one.

maxi,

I agree.  Bulls are ahead since the Bears let them back in above 5.87.  BRCD Bulls had a good day today in another tough day in the market.
 

Quote
like i said earlier my entry was faulty.

You're playing it very well, maxi, covering at 5.70, and re-entering short on house money at 6.06.  Nothing wrong with that.  Good play.

Quote from: Terliso on June 19, 2006, 03:11:26 PM
I'm still holding... As you can see 50dma slope is turning down I think price will follow soon.

Stop 6.45

Alister,

Beginning tomorrow, 6.31 is a DOUBLE upside breakout.  Could be a false breakout if it happens, of course, but just so you're aware. 

Good luck!  I hope it tanks for you guys, but I have to agree with maxi.  The bulls are winning above 5.87.

Bought BRCD at 6.20 on the re-test of the technical breakout above the recent 6.03-6.20 Rectangle, a Bullish consolidation/continuation pattern off the 12½% rally off the recent 5.51 low.  Stop: 6.02, a print of a penny below the Rectangle.  Risk: a loss of 2.9%.

The BRCD Bulls have been in charge since the Bears squandered their opportunity, and allowed the Bulls back in above 5.87, the "Four Score High" of June 12.

The Rectangle breakout puts Target: 6.37 IN PLAY, as long as BRCD trades above 6.20.

A print of 6.31 would a DOUBLE breakout above the channel and above the Ascending Triangle, which would put the April high of 7.10 IN PLAY.

All of that looks well worth the risk of 2.9% on a stop out.

Here's a review of the Bullish Case, if anyone is interested.

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 10, 2006, 10:35:35 AM
The Bullish Case:

1. The trend since late in 2005 is bullish. 

Since the April 7 high, the stock has been trading in a Bull Flag/Bull Channel.  It's long in the tooth to be a Bull Flag basis the daily chart, but it looks more like a Bull Flag basis the weekly chart.

2. The slope connecting the highs is -0.1522, so I created that exact same slope for the bottom of the channel.

The bottom of the channel was broken on May 15, where I noted that the 3-Day pattern looks like a Bullish Morning Star.  That break, however, held above trendline off the November, 2005 low (purple trendline), as Alister pointed out.

To determine whether or not the bottom of the channel (green) is meaningful, we want to see if it holds after the May 19 rally to 6.29 (#2 circled in blue).

The next day, May 20, BRCD sold off to the bottom of the channel and held it almost exactly.  The channel came in at 5.633.  The low that day was 5.64. 

3. After that, another rally to the 50DMA, a selloff to 5.80 (#3 in blue), then two more attempts to take out 6.29.  The June 2 high was 6.30.  The June 5 high was 6.29.

At that point, we had a "possible" Bullish Ascending Triangle.  The dotted red line is the Ascending line.

That "possibility" was negated when BRCD closed below the ascending line (dotted red line) on June 7, however, it's "possible" that we have to "move the marker" (#3 with a question mark) to Thursday's low of 5.76 for the Ascending line.

4. Support for the Bulls:

a. 5.80 - That's the "new" ascending line (rising blue line) after we "moved the marker."

b. 5.64 - is DOUBLE support.  That was the successful re-test of the bottom of the channel on May 22, and that's where the trendline (purple) off the November, 2005 low will come in next week (looks like next Wednesday).

c. 5.42 - is DOUBLE support.  That's the May 15 and May 17 lows, and that's also where the bottom of the channel (green) comes in early this week.

hi,
good luck melf,
i got out of this at 615 so i lost on that one. as i said there was too much selling without price movement . didn't look right to me. still it is trading in the channel.
got in xing long instead . oops! at 1129. i saw the moment it turned from there and i did'nt get out and go short. i don't hold out much hope for this one
glta
\maxi

Quote from: rickjust on June 22, 2006, 09:15:59 AM
hi,
good luck melf,
i got out of this at 615 so i lost on that one. as i said there was too much selling without price movement . didn't look right to me. still it is trading in the channel.

Thanks, maxi.  Sorry you lost on that one, but you did well, overall.

The Barbarians are at the gate for a DOUBLE breakout at 6.31.  Just hope that the Bulls don't wimp out on me, and take out the 6.03 low of the Rectangle.  If they do, there's a chance that they will re-test 5.87, hold, then breakout, but I'm not going to stay below 6.03.

Good luck on XING!

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 22, 2006, 09:29:02 AM

The Barbarians are at the gate for a DOUBLE breakout at 6.31. 

There's the DOUBLE breakout at 6.31.  This one is the Bulls' to lose.  We need to sustain the breakout and have some volume come in on short-covering and new buying.

lookin'good so far melf!  
sorry terlisa but you have your stop in place.
someone wins someone looses.
glta
maxi

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 21, 2006, 01:04:49 PM
The Rectangle breakout puts Target: 6.37 IN PLAY, as long as BRCD trades above 6.20.

The Rectangle Target: 6.37 MADE ten minutes into trading.

Quote from: rickjust on June 22, 2006, 09:50:08 AM
lookin'good so far melf! 

maxi,

Yeah, The Bulls took it to the 6.37 Rectangle Target immediately, and a little beyond to 6.40, then  former resistance at 6.30 held on a re-test, and was support.  Very nice price action, so far.

Looks good, but we're a long-g way from the close. 

got stopped out ;(.

Didn´t saw much strenght in the breakout so....my setup is trading the range.

Short @ 6.35. Stop loss if BRCD close above 6.40 at close.

almost took my stop @ 6.45

BRCD hit the upper trendline this should be good opportunity to short it...
the volume is still low, BULL needs more volume to break those overhead resistance

stop 6.45

Let's find out!!

Quote from: Melf Elf on June 21, 2006, 01:04:49 PM
Bought BRCD at 6.20 on the re-test of the technical breakout above the recent 6.03-6.20 Rectangle

Sold BRCD at 6.21.  Gain: nil.

Granted, the market is down pretty hard, and BRCD is holding near the top of the Rectangle at 6.20, but it's a failed DOUBLE breakout at this point, volume is lousy, and if BRCD closes here, the daily candlestick is going to look like a Bearish Gravestone Doji Star. 

YICK. 

Basis the 10-minute chart, it also looks like a H&S Top.

YICK 

The Bulls get credit for the 6.37 Rectangle target that MADE in the early going, but they wimped after that.  I'm out.

Short with me Melf-elf 

Quote from: Terliso on June 23, 2006, 12:11:48 AM
Short with me Melf-elf 

Alister,

Get Thee behind me, you devil.    

The Bears clearly won the day, recovering the fumble at the 6.40 yard line, and running it back through the 6.31 breakout all the way back to the top of the Rectangle, at 6.20, on what looks like a Bearish Gravestone Doji Star (could be a Bearish Long-Legged Doji Star). 

Which ever it is, it was a nice performance, and the Bears go on offense this morning, 1st and 10 at the 6.21.



I can't justify joining the Bears, though:

1. The Bulls scored a 16% gain from the 5.51 to the point of the fumble, at 6.40.  That was a great perfomance given the conditions at NASDAQ Field, which have overwhelmingly favored the Bears since mid-May.

2. It looks like the Bulls got a bit ahead of themselves, chewing up that much ground with the Tenkan-Sen (green line - 8 Day) and the Kijun-Sen (red line - 22 Day) Bearishly inverted back in the 5.90s, and with the Kumo (Cloud) reistance overhead, at 6.26.

"Too much, too soon."

3. The faster Tenkan-Sen (green...8-Day) now has pulled up dead even with the slower Kijun-Sen )red...22-Day) at 5.955, and the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) currently is at 5.97, right near there.  On a selloff, all 3 of those could be possible support, in addition to these other areas of possible support:

1. 6.20 - The Top of the Bullish Rectangle (Breakout Target: 6.37 was MADE, confirming that it was, in fact, bullish).

The Bears go on offense this morning right there.

2. 6.08 - The 50DMA

3. 6.03 - The bottom of the Bullish Rectangle

4. 5.97 - The bottom of the Kumo (Cloud)

5. 5.955 - The Tenkan-Sen

6. 5.955 - The Kijun-Sen

7. 5.87 -  The "Four Score High" for the Bears on June 12, where they lost control of the game when the Bulls took it out on June 14.

8. 5.74 - The up trendline off the November, 2005 low (dotted purple line).  The Bears broke that support on June 12, when they had four scores against the Bulls.  The Bulls opened their June 14 reversal day smack on the trendline and never looked back, re-establishing it as support.

9. 5.54 - Ascending line (blue) of the Ascending Triangle

10. 5.51 - The June 13 low

11. 5.42 - The May 17 low

More support below that, but at these last few levels, it's become a good short from here!

 

But, you see my point.  There's a lot of possible support below this 6.21 close.  I'd rather short when a stock is re-testing broken support (resistance) without much support below.

Now that I'm out of my long position, I hope that The Bears tank it for you since it won't be my money that you win!

   

Good luck, buddy, and good luck to everyone.

BTW, Applause to nullzero and maxi (rickjust) for showing up on the trade, and posting their stop outs.  It's refreshing to see that 3SOF, rather than the usual "Oh, I stopped it out two days ago for a gain" that we see on internet boards.  I admire that.  We all know that the market isn't so easy that we always have winners.



I appreciate the honesty, which helps us to learn from both our gains and our losses.  Thanks, guys.