3SOF

I took a gamble and loaded up extra heavily thinking I could sell for a quick pop today.
Instead I got burned.  It's amazing how optimism makes you forget reaistic stock behaviour.

I still think earnings were actually very positive, so this reaction is purely emotional and panic.

I decreased my position by 75% though today, so I guess I am one of the panicked.

Quote from: Michael on June 30, 2006, 12:30:17 PM
But with these assumptions (and ignoring dilution!) we get a trailing PE of 9 and a PE for 2006 of 6.3.

What is the P/E when you calculate in the dilution factor? Wouldn't that be the bottom line?

How about this gap down?  How do you think the stock price will be affected for next week?  It seems to be still dropping in after hours.

very disappointing trading day, hope that XING is recovering soon 

Quote from: AussieTrader on June 30, 2006, 08:56:53 AM
Selling the news for sure. Looks like the short termers are bailing, probably because of the stock option compensation figure. It is a sizeable figure for sure, but companies do givelots of  options. They have rewarded key personnel without having to pay out cash, options are a fantastic motivator for people.Also  XING have fully disclosed it here in this release so hats off for transparency.

Hi Aussie,

Indeed a disappointing day but if the stock options are to blame I am perplexed. This is old information released by the company in February: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1051846/000095013406005292/d34113sv8.htm

From the annual report:

QuoteOn February 24, 2006, the compensation committee approved the grant and issuance of 2,000,000 options at an exercise price of $7.00 per share to eleven persons, including the following officers, directors and related parties:

As of June 20, 2006, all 2,000,000 options had been exercised and no options to purchase shares of our common stock under the plan remained outstanding.

The stock options were issued at a strike price of 7 and the price at that time was 7.15. Any one of us could have bought shares cheaper than that since (and some did  ).

Now the stock price went up and those insiders who bought the shares are being rewarded for believing in their own company. Well I think they deserve every cent and if this known information is why the stock price dropped on Friday I will consider buying on Monday.

Quote from: Loffigus on June 30, 2006, 01:34:36 PM

Quote from: Michael on June 30, 2006, 12:30:17 PM
But with these assumptions (and ignoring dilution!) we get a trailing PE of 9 and a PE for 2006 of 6.3.

What is the P/E when you calculate in the dilution factor? Wouldn't that be the bottom line?

Good question Loffii. Lets try to calculate that based on known information and guidance.

Here is the fully diluted stock count as of today:



If we use XINGs guidance to forecast earnings up to 2010 (35% earnings increase per year) and assume no further dilution. (With CECT's IPO this might be a reasonable assumption if this is done as an increase in the share capital)



So PE this year of 6.3 and 1.5 in 2010.

Finally the weekly chart. As can be seen the strong trend is still intact.



As said before I don't know where the market is going to take the stock in the coming trading days but this level seems to me to be a good entry point.

The 1st one should read "raising $150M and the market cap can reach $1.5B for CECT"

-------------------------------
This IPO financing amount will reach at least 1.5 billion. By this calculation, the market value of at least CECT listing could reach 1.5 billion U.S. dollars

Acquisitions Zhongdiantongxin (CECT), the introduction of Qiaoxing mobile phone, deploy 3G chip research and development, stripping channels and some non-core operations, many planted in the strategic future, Qiao Xing Universal (Nasdaq : Xing) finally launched a long-planned capital projects -- Lee CECT States listed.

"Financial Times" through various channels was informed that the current Qiao Xing has begun, with several investment banks including Goldman Sachs contacts to determine CECT first public shares (IPO) of 1,595.

Although at present Qiaoxing a underwriters for its initial public offering have not yet signed with any intention of the agreement, the final location is listed on Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange, the shell company is CECT Qiao Xing Mobile (holding CECT90% shares) as a main listing, or to CECT as listed entities, are not yet known. But many firms have been given including the issuance price dropped interval, the number of shares issued and the amount of financing, market, listing timetable for the IPO, the programme. If everything goes smoothly, CECT will be in the earliest years of listing.

According to industry experts estimate that 10% of the shares issued in terms of the financing of CECT This IPO will reach at least 1.5 billion. By this calculation, the market value of at least CECT listing could reach 1.5 billion U.S. dollars.

Three rounds of private

Qiao Xing Universal listing of Chinese Taipei CECT news from the beginning of the three private, Qiao Xing Universal evident.

April 28, after twice previously issued to overseas investors about 20 million U.S. dollars of convertible bonds, Qiao Xing Universal and overseas strategic investors with the two signed a binding agreement to the value of 40 million U.S. dollars sold the convertible bonds.

Under the agreement, convertible bondholders in the three years after the completion of the transaction, based on its sale of these privileges Qiaoxing Universal convertible bonds into ordinary shares. These bonds can be converted into offshore companies CECT (shell company) and listed the main -- Qiao Xing Mobile (Qiao Xing Universal holding 80%) for the first time, openly shares ordinary shares of the bank prices may fall Qiao Xing Mobile 2005 surplus seven times the price calculation.

According to Qiao Xing chairman Wu Ruilin groups revealed that, in order to ensure that the BVI registered in the first stage of the major shareholders holding position, the strategic investors to buy the bonds if Qiaoxing Universal ordinary shares, the largest percentage would not exceed 9.9%. Once more than 9.9%, it is necessary to go beyond the partial sell, and the reduction to less than 9.9% can be re-conversion.

If the strategic investors to buy the bonds all Qiao Xing Mobile Communications Limited shares, the largest percentage in over 10% is expected. The final accounting for the number of units also depends on the situation and the profits for the same period CECT mobile Qiaoxing valuation.

Wu Ruilin said three occasions to the 60 million U.S. dollars worth, CECT will be mainly used for research and development in areas such as 3G and market expansion.

Public information, as early as February 2003, Qiao Xing Universal flag subsidiary Qiao Xing Mobile has spent 316 million yuan to purchase a CECT65% shares. October 2005, Qiao Xing Universal holding 90% of the telecommunications subsidiary Qiao Xing CECT25% also spend 80 million yuan to purchase the shares and the transfer of shares registered in the BVI to the Qiao Xing Mobile Communications Limited, the holding so that the latter reached 90% in CECT. This year, Qiaoxing CECT also bought another 10% of shares and, in doing so, the controlling stockholder Qiaoxing Universal Qiao Xing Mobile CECT effective for the remaining few reached 80%.

Based on these calculations, even in the IPO CECT, Qiao Xing Universal CECT in the few remaining 70% will remain in the polls.

Second layout

Along with being the IPO plan, Qiaoxing strategy in the field of mobile phones is largely in place a cloth.

June 22, a subsidiary of Qiao Xing Qiao Xing Universal access to telecommunications for the first time issued by the State Policy GSM mobile phone manufacturing licences and one new launch 25 mobile phones. This, coupled with the GSM and CDMA CECT already have two mobile phone licences, Qiaoxing of actual control has three mobile phone licences as Zhang.

Reporters learn that the two brands of Qiaoxing CECT mobile phone handsets and mobile phone now from Qiao Xing Wu Ruilin two sons Wuzhiyang and Wuzhizhong.

In fact, as early as the beginning of 1999, Qiao Xing Universal listing, Wu Ruilin has relatively Guhua, more profits interest in the mobile phone market occurred. This year, he sent the eldest son Wuzhiyang dedicated mobile phone project, and South Korea plans to CDMA modern joint venture, due to various reasons, nothing ;2001 November, through the establishment of Qiaoxing Telecommunication mobile telecommunications department, Wu Ruilin drum ripe to attempt to apply for mobile phones through mobile phone licence to market access cards, but the result is not ideal. Helpless, the one he finally grit one's teeth with 3.16 billion shares purchased CECT65%, which specifically involved in the mobile phone market gained admission tickets.

As of press time today, Qiao Xing Universal share price jumping 12.40 billion, higher than another concept Nasdaq mobile communications unit UT Sidakang's stock nearly doubled.

Wu Ruilin said that the current CECT mobile phone handsets and Qiaoxing production orders from major industrial park located in Huizhou Qiaoxing the production base completed. Research and development, in Huizhou Qiao Xing, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen have four to six mobile phone design companies, in addition to a number of shares or strategic nature of the research and development cooperation agencies, such as the CLP dragon (CECW), CLP Austrian Sheng (CECM), Shanghai style.

Links

Qiaoxing Founded in 1992, mainly engaged in the communications terminal products research, development, production and marketing, domestic large telephone, cellular phone, and other communications products manufacturing enterprises subordinate holding subsidiaries include Qiaoxing Telecommunication, Zhongdiantongxin. February 1999, "Qiao Xing Universal" in the U.S. Nasdaq stock listing ;2002 March, Qiao Xing Universal to 316 million yuan from Tianjin Taida and China Electronics Group Zhongdiantongxin acquired 65% holding hands right after the completion of the remaining 35% of shares have been acquired; In June this year, Qiaoxing Telecommunication access GSM mobile phone licence as Zhongdiantongxin IPO implementation Qiaoxing of three mobile phone licences will be owned, two mobile phones and two brands of communications products overseas listed companies producers. (n103)


The article Source : Financial Times

awesome update and clarification, premarket 11$ 

Chairman's Message of Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc.: Review of 2005 and the First Quarter of 2006 and Outlook for the Remaining Quarters of 2006
Monday July 3, 8:00 am ET

--The Company Anticipates that Net Income would Grow at an Average Yearly Rate of 35% in the Medium Term.

HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, July 3 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING - News) today issued its Chairman's message. In the message, Chairman Wu Rui Lin said:

''For 2005, XING's net sales, gross profit, net income and earnings per share all reached a record-high. Our major subsidiary, CEC Telecom Co., Ltd. (CECT) continued its growth and became even more profitable. XING's other operating subsidiary, Huizhou Qiao Xing Communication Industry, Ltd. (HZQXCI), also achieved significant growth with net income from its mobile phone and indoor phone business segments increasing by 640% and 144% respectively compared with a year earlier.

''XING's growth momentum continued in the first quarter of 2006, with CECT reaching the medium-term goal that it set itself not so long ago of becoming one of the five top local players in the mobile phone handset market in China in terms of market share.

''To retain and reward our high-calibre officers, key employees and strategic consultant who have devoted their time and effort to contribute to our dramatic success in the past six years, in February this year we have granted them options to purchase all the 2,000,000 shares of common stock authorized and reserved for issuance under the Stock Compensation Plan set up in 2005. Fair value of the options of US$ 7.3 million was recorded as share- based compensation expenses. Option grants, being useful in anchoring key members of senior management to the Company, further the long-term interests of the Company, and by extension, those of its shareholders. These options were subsequently exercised in cash and have brought new capital to the Company. However, as the accounting principles require, they are booked as expenses in the profit and loss account and have a potentially dilutive effect on earnings.''

''In fact, the last time options were granted under a similar plan was in 1999 and 2000. We have not yet scheduled any stock option plan for the coming years and all our compensation plans have to be reviewed and approved by our compensation committee and independent directors.

''If the share-based compensation expenses, which did not involve any outflow of cash, had been taken out, XING's income from operations (before interest, tax and minority interests) for the first quarter of 2006 would have reached US$ 9.4 million, an increase of 61.5% compared with the same period last year.

''When we look at the remaining quarters of 2006, one thing to remember is that traditionally among all quarters, sales in the first are the slowest in the mobile phone handset market in China. With that in mind:

-- In the second quarter of 2006, CECT moved up one place further in the league table of market share to rank fourth among local players in the mobile phone handset market in China. It recently launched a number of new models of high-end mobile phones with sophisticated functionalities and distinctive features at competitive prices, many of which met with varying degrees of success. In particular, orders worth US$62 million have been received for the 'A1000' Model, which boasts a standby-time of up to 1,000 hours thanks to a long-life battery. Still more new models are in the pipeline. CECT can expect an average yearly net income growth of 35% for the coming years.

-- Just a few weeks ago, HZQXCI was granted by the National Development and Reform Commission of China a manufacturing license for mobile phone terminal products. The last impediment to XING'S dual brand mobile phone strategy has been cleared. In the distributor fairs held recently, HZQXCI announced the launch of 22 new models of mobile phone handsets and received US$50 million's worth of orders. HZQXCI expects that the sale of its 'COSUN'- brand handsets will double in 2006. It has also been working on expanding its overseas markets for mobile phone handsets.

-- Both CECT and HZQXCI are getting their mobile phone handsets ready for the debut of the 3G era in China.

-- HZQXCI anticipates more big-volume orders of indoor telephones from domestic and overseas telecommunication operators. Revenue from the sale of indoor telephone sets for 2006 could increase by up to 60% compared with 2005.

''''We anticipate that XING's net sales would increase up to 30% from a year earlier to reach US$ 463 million, and that in the medium term, XING's net income would grow at an average yearly rate of 35% from 2006 to 2010.''

nice clarification, premarket 11 $

Chairman's Message of Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc.: Review of 2005 and the First Quarter of 2006 and Outlook for the Remaining Quarters of 2006
Monday July 3, 8:00 am ET
--The Company Anticipates that Net Income would Grow at an Average Yearly Rate of 35% in the Medium Term.

HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, July 3 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING - News) today issued its Chairman's message. In the message, Chairman Wu Rui Lin said:

''For 2005, XING's net sales, gross profit, net income and earnings per share all reached a record-high. Our major subsidiary, CEC Telecom Co., Ltd. (CECT) continued its growth and became even more profitable. XING's other operating subsidiary, Huizhou Qiao Xing Communication Industry, Ltd. (HZQXCI), also achieved significant growth with net income from its mobile phone and indoor phone business segments increasing by 640% and 144% respectively compared with a year earlier.

''XING's growth momentum continued in the first quarter of 2006, with CECT reaching the medium-term goal that it set itself not so long ago of becoming one of the five top local players in the mobile phone handset market in China in terms of market share.

''To retain and reward our high-calibre officers, key employees and strategic consultant who have devoted their time and effort to contribute to our dramatic success in the past six years, in February this year we have granted them options to purchase all the 2,000,000 shares of common stock authorized and reserved for issuance under the Stock Compensation Plan set up in 2005. Fair value of the options of US$ 7.3 million was recorded as share- based compensation expenses. Option grants, being useful in anchoring key members of senior management to the Company, further the long-term interests of the Company, and by extension, those of its shareholders. These options were subsequently exercised in cash and have brought new capital to the Company. However, as the accounting principles require, they are booked as expenses in the profit and loss account and have a potentially dilutive effect on earnings.''

''In fact, the last time options were granted under a similar plan was in 1999 and 2000. We have not yet scheduled any stock option plan for the coming years and all our compensation plans have to be reviewed and approved by our compensation committee and independent directors.

''If the share-based compensation expenses, which did not involve any outflow of cash, had been taken out, XING's income from operations (before interest, tax and minority interests) for the first quarter of 2006 would have reached US$ 9.4 million, an increase of 61.5% compared with the same period last year.

''When we look at the remaining quarters of 2006, one thing to remember is that traditionally among all quarters, sales in the first are the slowest in the mobile phone handset market in China. With that in mind:

-- In the second quarter of 2006, CECT moved up one place further in the league table of market share to rank fourth among local players in the mobile phone handset market in China. It recently launched a number of new models of high-end mobile phones with sophisticated functionalities and distinctive features at competitive prices, many of which met with varying degrees of success. In particular, orders worth US$62 million have been received for the 'A1000' Model, which boasts a standby-time of up to 1,000 hours thanks to a long-life battery. Still more new models are in the pipeline. CECT can expect an average yearly net income growth of 35% for the coming years.

-- Just a few weeks ago, HZQXCI was granted by the National Development and Reform Commission of China a manufacturing license for mobile phone terminal products. The last impediment to XING'S dual brand mobile phone strategy has been cleared. In the distributor fairs held recently, HZQXCI announced the launch of 22 new models of mobile phone handsets and received US$50 million's worth of orders. HZQXCI expects that the sale of its 'COSUN'- brand handsets will double in 2006. It has also been working on expanding its overseas markets for mobile phone handsets.

-- Both CECT and HZQXCI are getting their mobile phone handsets ready for the debut of the 3G era in China.

-- HZQXCI anticipates more big-volume orders of indoor telephones from domestic and overseas telecommunication operators. Revenue from the sale of indoor telephone sets for 2006 could increase by up to 60% compared with 2005.

''''We anticipate that XING's net sales would increase up to 30% from a year earlier to reach US$ 463 million, and that in the medium term, XING's net income would grow at an average yearly rate of 35% from 2006 to 2010.''

Great news. I am impressed by their speed of response, and this is shorts' nightmare.

The stock market is such a strange and interesting environment, it sucks you in  it spits you out  It plays on your emotions, it destroys some, it elevates others.

My opinion, XING is now a ball of fire, it's been trying to breakout big (because of a huge shift in fundamentals), but getting pulled back by it's historical trading pattern and mistrust from speculators nd the market. I am thinking that soon (but I don't know how soon) that ball of fire will become unstoppable and get a huge move on.

Good Trading

Quote from: tokyopua on June 30, 2006, 10:06:48 AM
I think the gap at $9.61 will serve as support for XING, though right now doesnt look to go that low.  I got back in at $9.9, expect a decent rebound.

Well, this was far better than I could have expected for a rebound! XING looking today like it wants to get back to its highs right before the drops due to the confusion in the press release about the stock options 

XING just got mentioned on CNBC, a short mention about its strong forecast.  Nice!

nice day for XING 

Wow, XING is HUNGRY to fill that open gap!!!

....

Or not... seems like we got within 4 cents of closing the gap and then it became a resistance level.  Of course, the horrible day for the Nasdaq and all the Korean missle hype didnt make it any easier, but it was sad to see XING not hold on to those nice gains it made early on.

The weekly charts shows why XING will need to break that resistance. Uptrending channel (upper end) and long term resistance zone meet around the $11.60 area.
Well Tokyo, it is interesting to note that the sell off on XING started just around 3.00pm, so the 'professionals' wanted the price lower going into thursday. Why? No idea, maybe we find out today.

Good Trading