3SOF

Quote from: stockpicker on June 29, 2005, 02:40:57 AM
Interesting post... but I must admit that I know nothing about Kumo, Ichimoku and Kinko Hyo.

Don't worry about it.  Just something that you take a quick look at ("at a glance") to help you determine if a stock is a buy or a sell. 

I give you overdue applause for your nice work on the fundamentals of DNDN, about which I knew nothing, so we're even.   

I was hoping to buy a breakout in DNDN today. It got to within a hair of the  big down trendline (log chart), found resistance there again, then swooned into the close. 

It's still within the pattern, but it's back below the Ichimoku.  The fact that DNDN is getting so close to the apex of the triangle and hasn't broken out yet is a bit discouraging.  If it's going to tag and validate the up trendline, it better hurry up and do it.  MACD is about to make a bearish cross of its signal line.

http://ts-lc.sc8.finance.lycos.com/1120026603187?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=NASDAQ:DNDN&Interval=D&Permission=1000&Ht=400&Wd=600&Display=2&Study=MACD&Param1=12&Param2=26&Param3=9&FontSize=10&LocaleID=0x0409

This is the fourth time this descending trendline puts a cap on DNDN's advance. This time it produced a mighty ugly bearish engulfing candlestick. Decision time is coming for DNDN, choosing between a break of the ascending support or the descending resistance.

Of course, being long the stock I would like it to breakout on the upside, but the stock or the market doesn't care at all for what I like or dislike.

The trading plan is quite simple here too, sell if support is broken on close, hold for a bull run if it closes above resistance. For tomorrow support will be at $5.08 and resistance at $5.53.

DNDN's support today is @$5.10 and resistance $5.50. I think it will break on the upside, but I will respect the market and act accordingly.

There are a few stocks in my portfolio I wouldn't sell whatever the TA says (that is unless the fundamentals change!). Dendreon is one of them.

The potential is just so enormous that it outweighs the risks (read stockpickers post: http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=693.0 )

The company has enough cash to finish the trials of its Cancer Vaccine and commercialize the product, so the only risk is if they can obtain FDA approval.

I stumbled over some figures for ImClone's recent results from a late-stage study, which showed its Erbitux drug is effective in preventing the spread of head and neck cancer (this is their main product): "After two years, 62 percent of the Erbitux-treated patients were still alive and 57 percent were still living after three years. Fifty-five percent of patients treated with radiation alone were alive after two years, and 44 percent were still living after three years".

Now compare that with DNDN's results from Provenge against prostate cancer: Phase 3 study showed a 300% increase after 36 months. As this is a vaccine against cancer you don't have the side effects of chemotherapy. In fact Provenge is very well tolerated by the patients. Without being an expert FDA approval seems to be a no-brainer. The experts will obviously say that this would be the first cancer vaccine to be approved so FDA will be very diligent and there are no guarantee for success. Motley Fool recently had an article which summed up the pro and cons nicely: http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05050304.htm

In addition to Provenge DNDN has also finalized a phase I study of Neuvenge against breast cancer which shows similar positive results but at a much earlier stage. Have a look a the investor presentation at the fourth annual Needham Biotechnology Conference:

Great research Michael, thanks 

I have to stand with my strategy and trading plan, or I would be lost. So, time is running out on DNDN. The stock did hit support on Friday's session and recovered a bit from the lows.

Support for tomorrow (for a trader tomorrow is always the next trading day) will be at $5.12. Resistance will be $5.45.

Quote from: Michael on July 02, 2005, 04:00:24 AM
...There are a few stocks in my portfolio I wouldn't sell whatever the TA says (that is unless the fundamentals change!). Dendreon is one of them.
...The potential is just so enormous ...
...The company has enough cash ...
...I stumbled over some figures ...

Michael,
You are so right and correct, but as I mentioned before - DO NOT FALL IN LOVE WITH THIS STOCK, especially when it's from biotech sector!
In fact - almost all the good news we know now were known in December 2004 but it could not avoid the disaster in January 2005. For now we know, that:
(quoted from Yahoo MB, by caseystarman)
A. Provenge works.
B. Dendreon leads the vaccine immunotherapy parade with Provenge.
C. Their delivery cassette technology works and has seen us through all three Trial phases with D9901 which completed last October.
D. 9902a in a recent unblinding was tracking "similarly" to D9901 as we approached the last months of this second Provenge Phase III Trial.
E. A BLA filing is imminent and has been declared to be all but a certainty--which it likely is.
F. There is no other non-toxic PC vaccine that has been demonstrated to work in a Phase III Trial. The competition is years behind DNDN.
G. Pressure on the FDA is inherent in this situation. PC patients want this opportunity to extend their lives and will, IMO, be accommodated.
Let's add some more facts:
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 0,028
Short % of Float (as of 10-Jun-05): 23,10%
Merger rumours etc...
But all these facts are showing, that something is missing in short-term. Stock with all the values mentioned above should trade at 5-6 times higher and yet...
I do agree with Your statement if You are long in DNDN. In long term (for me - 3-5 years) this baby will grow enormously and this is a good price to accumulate. But at this very moment my suggestion for 3SOF followers is to follow David's advice which is mostly TA-based (also take a look at Melf Elf's postings).
As a "long in DNDN" I'll give You an applaud for Your post, but in short term this stock may fall under 4 and also it may rise over 6. There's big difference for short-term players!

You are both right from a short-term technical point of view - and this is how I look at 95% of my stocks but not DNDN.

Here is my rationale: I believe Provenge will be approved. Try to look at the results from the study: after three years 27.3% of the patients with late stage cancer (high Gleason score) that was treated with Provenge was still alive. 100% of those receiving placebo had died. Now if you had Prostate Cancer would you put pressure on the FDA for a fast track approval? and why would FDA not give the approval - after all there is almost no side effects?

The people who probably are best to judge if Provenge will be approved are the people working for Dendreon and they have lately been buying stocks in the open market at prices higher than the close on Friday.

When Provenge is approved (or rather when the market realise that this will happen) DNDN will increase with 500% to 1000%. Now I don't know when this will happen. It could be results from the ongoing phase III study or a research report from Merrill Lynch, it could be an article in Wall Street journal. Who knows - but I have promised myself that I will not be out of the stock when it happens! I might suffer a 20% loss short time. I don't give a damn...

Some believes in Oil bubbles I believe in Provenge 

I thought I might add that in a similar scenario with a fast track childrens Leukemia drug from Genz and Bivn that the FDA passed the drug.  We are talking late stage treatments for killer diseases.  You cannot kill someone twice, so the FDA standards for success are much lower, and when the committee has to hear from families that have dying loved ones, it becomes a no brainer to approve the drug.  They leave themselves open for very little criticism if they are wrong, unlike when they mess up on pain relief drugs. 

This is not only educational, but also full of suspense. Better than "War of the Worlds." A close above 5.45 and I'm in.

Quote from: tommyt on July 02, 2005, 08:30:24 PM
This is not only educational, but also full of suspense. Better than "War of the Worlds." A close above 5.45 and I'm in.

I agree Tommyt  this is way better than "War of the Worlds" lol... although the beginning was awesome in the movie.   

I applauded most of you guys posting on this thread.  Thx as I am looking to take a position in this stock, eventually.  I believe timing is everything and I will hope that before an announcement is made something will show up on T/A(volume and pattern).  Really excellent posts recently by Michael, poiss and oicpecnoc.

goodluck 

Dendreon is actually in Wall Street Journal today even though it is not the article I am waiting for:

[$$] Investment Dartboard - at The Wall Street Journal Online

In the WSJ stock-picking contest for the next 6 months, no human contestant picked DNDN ... but the WSJ dart-thrower did.

"The darts fell on CTS (CTS; $12.29), an electronics manufacturer in Elkhart, Ind.; Seattle-based biotech firm Dendreon (DNDN; $5.23); Harman International (HAR; $81.36), a maker of audio equipment based in Washington, D.C.; shoe maker Stride Rite (SRR; $13.79) of Lexington, Mass.; United Natural Foods (UNFI; $30.37), an organic-food distributor in Dayville, Conn.; and hard-drive maker Western Digital (WDC; $13.42) of Lake Forest, Calif."

During the previous 6-month contest, the dart-thrower beat the stock pickers by 25%.

Maybe he's a good shot and was aiming for DNDN this time. 

funny story on the WSJ, thanks Michael.

Well, DNDN barely closed above support today. But it did, so I continue to hold the stock. It is even better when a stock intraday goes below support, but then claws back near the close to finish above support. This will give short term power to the stock, as everyone who sold thinking support would be broke is sorry and wants to get back in.

Support for tomorrow is $5.12 and resistance is $5.43.

I don't like to analyze intraday data but it seems DNDN has a good chance today to break the downside trendline. Giving the fundamentals, we can expect the stock to move a lot higher from this breakout, if it happens.

I just hope it closes above $5.43 !

DNDN has printed 5.70 so far this morning, which is above the last two highs on this chart (data points #3 and #4).  Looks good.  It would be nice to see volume pick up today.