3SOF

Zhu Shanlu, Secretary of Educational Working Committee of Beijing Municipal Party Committee, and Zhao Fengtong, vice-mayor of Beijing accompanied Mayor Wang on his June 17, 2006 visit. Sinovac CEO, Mr. Yin Weidong gave this distinguished party a status report on the Phase I Clinical trial preliminary results of Sinovac's proprietary pandemic influenza vaccine, Panflu(TM).

Mr. Yin described the entire process of Panflu production, from virus cultivation, harvest, inactivation and purification, to formulation, filling and packaging. He also gave the visitors a tour of Sinovac's production facilities. During the visit, they discussed the Company's R&D and production process and the government's role in fostering growth in the biotech sector.

Mayor Wang noted during his visit, "It is essential that we pay close attention to the prevention and control of infectious diseases. We must establish a disease prevention system for the whole society and an effective emergency response system to insure we are fully prepared when there is an outbreak of disease. To accomplish this, it is necessary for the government to stockpile vaccines. We must also leverage high-tech companies' central role in addressing national health challenges by supporting their technological innovations and establishing for them a platform of fair competition.

About Panflu(TM)
Sinovac's Panflu(TM) is an inactivated whole virus vaccine with adjuvant. Four antigen dosages levels were tested in the Phase I clinical trial and all of them induced an immune response in the volunteers. The vaccine with 10ug antigen content demonstrated the best immunogenicity, with a sero-positive rate of 78.3%, which exceeds the criteria for assessment of vaccines established by Committee for Proprietary Medicinal Products of the European Union.

http://www.sinovac.com/NewsRoom/2006/6/iykb86ewks.htm

SVA might be up for a reversal..........

Trading Idea:
SVA is working an interesting reversal pattern after a strong correction period; this stock has been under our radar since a long time ago.
Last month SVA broke its support near $2.35 and had what looks to be an exhaustive sell dip bellow $2, a few days later it breakout the descending resistance line (the bearish guideline working since May).
Volume is increasing a bit, and SVA is now breaking the $2.35 resistance level, this could be just the start of a rebound move with quite potential.
On the downside, SVA has now a support (ascending) near $2.10 which will be used has a stop level for this position.

Trading Plan:
Buy SVA today at or near the open.

Regards,

Great Ramsburg lets move north with this pick ! 

Quote from: ket1390 on August 07, 2006, 03:12:01 AM
Great Ramsburg lets move north with this pick ! 

I debated this trade for most of the day today whether or not i wanted to enter tomorrow or wait to see how things go tomorrow on this breakout and try to pick some up near a support level.  Seeing Rams hoppin in decided im gonna fill a half position tomorrow near the open and then fill the 2nd half if i get the chance at a support level 

Good luck on your trade Rams and Ket. Lets make some Green 

Need some teaching here from you trading-wise ones please.

If in a bear market 3 out of 4 stocks will fall with the markets,  why would we want to get in anything these days? Doesn't this drastically increase our odds of a bad pick? This is a nice looking chart for sure, but I've bought many since the rate increases that have failed and am getting gun shy.

Realizing we never know for sure of course, but how do we increase our odds of success in this kind of market while protecting our capital? I know the old addage about tightening up your stops, but every hundred or two keeps eating away at the base investing capital. And I don't short. So, Thinking people want to know your thoughts please......

TIA

Quote from: Ramsburg on August 07, 2006, 12:51:21 AM
Volume is increasing a bit, and SVA is now breaking the $2.35 resistance level,

Frederick,

Right.  SVA close right at 2.35 ,horizonal resistance from the last low.  Next resistance is:

2.48 - the top of the Bear Flag (rises a little daily)

2.58 - the declining 50 DMA (falls a little daily)

Quote from: Tirebldr on August 07, 2006, 09:10:19 AM
Need some teaching here from you trading-wise ones please.

If in a bear market 3 out of 4 stocks will fall with the markets, why would we want to get in anything these days? Doesn't this drastically increase our odds of a bad pick? This is a nice looking chart for sure, but I've bought many since the rate increases that have failed and am getting gun shy.

Realizing we never know for sure of course, but how do we increase our odds of success in this kind of market while protecting our capital? I know the old addage about tightening up your stops, but every hundred or two keeps eating away at the base investing capital. And I don't short. So, Thinking people want to know your thoughts please......

Tirebldr,

FWIW, my thought is that the stock certainly is overdue for a rally after the wicked decline, but at the same time, it already has rallied almost 30% off the 1.81 low, and SVA now is near the top of a Bear Flag, at 3 levels of resistance.

That suggests to me that it might be a good idea to take quick profits if you're going to play it.  I'm going to pass on this one.

Quote from: Tirebldr on August 07, 2006, 09:10:19 AM
Need some teaching here from you trading-wise ones please.

If in a bear market 3 out of 4 stocks will fall with the markets,  why would we want to get in anything these days? Doesn't this drastically increase our odds of a bad pick? This is a nice looking chart for sure, but I've bought many since the rate increases that have failed and am getting gun shy.

Realizing we never know for sure of course, but how do we increase our odds of success in this kind of market while protecting our capital? I know the old addage about tightening up your stops, but every hundred or two keeps eating away at the base investing capital. And I don't short. So, Thinking people want to know your thoughts please......

TIA

hi,
with respect to the fact that you don't short you can always step aside and not trade. this is a very difficult thing to do because we love to trade but if in doubt , leave it out.
maxi

Quote from: Tirebldr on August 07, 2006, 09:10:19 AM
Need some teaching here from you trading-wise ones please.

If in a bear market 3 out of 4 stocks will fall with the markets,  why would we want to get in anything these days? Doesn't this drastically increase our odds of a bad pick? This is a nice looking chart for sure, but I've bought many since the rate increases that have failed and am getting gun shy.

Realizing we never know for sure of course, but how do we increase our odds of success in this kind of market while protecting our capital? I know the old addage about tightening up your stops, but every hundred or two keeps eating away at the base investing capital. And I don't short. So, Thinking people want to know your thoughts please......

TIA

One reason can be that in this case we are looking at a bird flu stock, and bird flu stocks will likely have their own bull market going forward as we enter flu season.  Look at any bird flu stock and their charts started going up last year around August, September, October.

That being said, I am not buying the gap up this morning, I dont see it being a breakaway gap...

Quote from: tokyopua on August 07, 2006, 09:50:59 AM

Quote from: Tirebldr on August 07, 2006, 09:10:19 AM
Need some teaching here from you trading-wise ones please.

If in a bear market 3 out of 4 stocks will fall with the markets,  why would we want to get in anything these days? Doesn't this drastically increase our odds of a bad pick? This is a nice looking chart for sure, but I've bought many since the rate increases that have failed and am getting gun shy.

Realizing we never know for sure of course, but how do we increase our odds of success in this kind of market while protecting our capital? I know the old addage about tightening up your stops, but every hundred or two keeps eating away at the base investing capital. And I don't short. So, Thinking people want to know your thoughts please......

TIA

One reason can be that in this case we are looking at a bird flu stock, and bird flu stocks will likely have their own bull market going forward as we enter flu season.  Look at any bird flu stock and their charts started going up last year around August, September, October.

That being said, I am not buying the gap up this morning, I dont see it being a breakaway gap...

I agree.  It's tough to imagine SVA having too much short term running strength with such low volume.  I also agree that SVA and the other bird flu stocks will have their run again - that's why I have been trying to keep up with this topic with charts and news.  I'm also not buying the gap up.  Hoping it doesn't start it's run yet! 

Im not liking the gap up either Baso, i've held off for now from filling any position 

-fous

Quote from: Tirebldr on August 07, 2006, 09:10:19 AM
Need some teaching here from you trading-wise ones please.

If in a bear market 3 out of 4 stocks will fall with the markets,  why would we want to get in anything these days? Doesn't this drastically increase our odds of a bad pick? This is a nice looking chart for sure, but I've bought many since the rate increases that have failed and am getting gun shy.

Realizing we never know for sure of course, but how do we increase our odds of success in this kind of market while protecting our capital? I know the old addage about tightening up your stops, but every hundred or two keeps eating away at the base investing capital. And I don't short. So, Thinking people want to know your thoughts please......

TIA

Thats a good point Tirbldr! The market has been severe during the last few months, and that's completely true that we can have a lot more «fake» signals, and erratic behaviours on stocks during a sliding market like this. The odds are not so attractive...

Most of my trading «education» was made during 2000/2002, a furious Bear Market, I was mostly trading derivatives at that time, so it was easier and natural to stay on the short side. Nevertheless, and even with the big downfall we've watched this year so far, I'm not looking into it with the same eyes I was looking to the market in 2000/2002. Not saying this isn't a Bear market, but I'm not expecting something even comparable to 2000/2002 mainly for 2 reasons:
1- The previous 1999 / early 2000 speculative bubble (Technical Reason)
2- The crazy numbers that were going on at that time, where most big caps were trading with > 70 P/E and sometimes negative or incredibly low EPS (Fundamental Reason).

Yes, the international scenario is terrible right now, Crude is flying out to the sky, rates are uncertain, terrorist problems, etc, etc... But anyhow, the economy has been back to the «real» world facing «real» problems and expectations, most big caps are trading «understandable» numbers, and they have experienced just normal corrections so far.

With that said, and not knowing the future, my expectations are not really pessimistic, the current correction reminds me the begin of 2005 or the first half of 2004, we don't have yet any signs of market reversal to the upside, so we've been trading with less exposure (less than 50% portfolio exposure most of the time), mainly we've been keeping up with the market during this difficult time, as we tend to exceed the market's up move when moving to the upside.
Picking stocks like SVA may represent a risk (like a fake or premature breakout), but SVA is also a theme stock, and it can benefit from seasonable effects this summer.

Quote from: basonista on August 07, 2006, 10:29:24 AM
I agree.  It's tough to imagine SVA having too much short term running strength with such low volume.  I also agree that SVA and the other bird flu stocks will have their run again - that's why I have been trying to keep up with this topic with charts and news.  I'm also not buying the gap up.  Hoping it doesn't start it's run yet! 

Hi Basonista,

Yep, probably our timing wasn't perfect here, today's gap wasn't «planned», and this could end giving a better entry level into this position.

Update:
SVA opened with a gap up, breaking out the resistance level, but traded with low volume (which is not good in cases like this). SVA will mostly close down the gap level and retest the $2.30 area before it gains strength to continue it's up move.

Trading Plan:
Hold SVA

Regards,

Well, looks like those of us who waited on buying the gap up were justified so far.  Of course 3SOF had to stick to the stated plan and buy at or near open yesterday, but I still think that was a good buy long term. 

Anyway, I am thinking of doing something like Fous was planning yesterday, to buy a half position tomorrow (assuming no gaps up), and even average down later if the stock does go lower.

It seems like 2.32 has been a resistance in the past, I am hoping that it will now act as a support. 

Currious what Fous, Basonista, and the rest of you think about SVA here at 2.32, did anyone buy yet, or plan to?  And does anyone see any other attractive birdflu stocks?  GNBT seems to be reaching for a low, etc.

Quote from: tokyopua on August 08, 2006, 10:08:23 PM
Currious what Fous, Basonista, and the rest of you think about SVA here at 2.32, did anyone buy yet, or plan to?  And does anyone see any other attractive birdflu stocks?  GNBT seems to be reaching for a low, etc.

Hey Toky,
This my current plan for SVA

SVA was met by resistence and retraced today which suggests some more retracement tomorrow IMO. I still think SVA is capable of a nice bullish reversal but i think for the real reversal to come its going to need to break this 2.50 mark on volume which is short and long term resistence. SVA is forming a short term ascending channel. I will look to buy near the bottom of this channel near 2.20 , shooting for 2.15 though  . I would prefer to see a hammer candle come retest this area near 2.20 so i can fill my position

-fous

Quote from: tokyopua on August 08, 2006, 10:08:23 PM
Well, looks like those of us who waited on buying the gap up were justified so far.  Of course 3SOF had to stick to the stated plan and buy at or near open yesterday, but I still think that was a good buy long term. 

Anyway, I am thinking of doing something like Fous was planning yesterday, to buy a half position tomorrow (assuming no gaps up), and even average down later if the stock does go lower.

It seems like 2.32 has been a resistance in the past, I am hoping that it will now act as a support. 

Currious what Fous, Basonista, and the rest of you think about SVA here at 2.32, did anyone buy yet, or plan to?  And does anyone see any other attractive birdflu stocks? GNBT seems to be reaching for a low, etc.

Definitively justified so far...
About other bird flu related stocks, most of them are testing the lows right now (NVAS, AVII, GNBT), EMFP (the nanomask penny) is experiencing a rebound but not consistent so far. From all those charts I still have SVA as a favourite candidate for a start...

Update:
SVA experienced some selling pressure yesterday, returning to the breakout level ($2.30).

Trading Plan:
Hold