3SOF

so i got in average at 2.18 today...lets see

in at 2.19, Pandemic, here we come.

Quote from: fous on August 09, 2006, 01:37:39 AM

Quote from: tokyopua on August 08, 2006, 10:08:23 PM
Currious what Fous, Basonista, and the rest of you think about SVA here at 2.32, did anyone buy yet, or plan to?  And does anyone see any other attractive birdflu stocks?  GNBT seems to be reaching for a low, etc.

Hey Toky,
This my current plan for SVA

SVA was met by resistence and retraced today which suggests some more retracement tomorrow IMO. I still think SVA is capable of a nice bullish reversal but i think for the real reversal to come its going to need to break this 2.50 mark on volume which is short and long term resistence. SVA is forming a short term ascending channel. I will look to buy near the bottom of this channel near 2.20 , shooting for 2.15 though  . I would prefer to see a hammer candle come retest this area near 2.20 so i can fill my position

-fous

Fous, I am applauding you for this analysis because you gave me pause and so I saved money not getting in at the open.  Thanks!

In fact I still didnt get in, I am trying to figure this one out.  I noticed SVA had its original decline start right around the time the overall market started declining in May, and today felt pretty bearish so I am wondering if there is still more downside.  Did you get in at 2.15 as you were hoping?

Quote from: tokyopua on August 08, 2006, 10:08:23 PM

Currious what Fous, Basonista, and the rest of you think about SVA here at 2.32, did anyone buy yet, or plan to?  And does anyone see any other attractive birdflu stocks?  GNBT seems to be reaching for a low, etc.

Well, unfortunately my portfolio is down about 75% since the beginning of the year so I'm going to have to sit on the sidelines and decide my future in the investing world.  I really like SVA and believe it is at a good buy in price.  Reading through their last earnings report, they seem to be getting their act together business wise and have several great products to offer the world including their bird flu vaccine.  I have no doubts that SVA will move up with the other bird flu stocks but I don't know where the bottom is and I can't stand to look at anymore red on my screen.    Good luck to all of you that bought in.  I really hope it turns into a rocket for you! 

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 07, 2006, 09:22:09 AM
Next resistance is:
2.48 - the top of the Bear Flag (rises a little daily)

sva failed at  top of  bear flag.

Quote
SVA now is near the top of a Bear Flag, at 3 levels of resistance.   I'm going to pass on this one.

what looks more dominant to you on the chart.

1. breakout above black trendline. 

2. breakdown below 2.35, now 1 year of resistance, and and this bear flag we are in.

could work out, but i still would pass.  same reason as cpst, siri, astm, ckcm. etc.  cpst in trading drafts.

sorry for bad typing. just took a pain pill so trying to type. 

About SVA:

   This is my first post in last two month.

   If your holding period is one year, I am pretty sure that you will be profitable.

   Short term, not so optimistic. Many people are looking for a repeat of last year's pattern.
   But those may disappoint. For me $1.85 is a good entry point. Big player will try to shake most small players out before pushing it up.

   From 1/2006 - 7/2006, my portfolio gained about 50% with only about 12 trades.

   I strongly believe that the portfolio will at least double by the end of this year.

   I see tech rebound at around October. Microsoft new OP (64 bit) will bring market fresh air and will putsh many tech stocks higher.

   I used multi-buy strategy for stocks which went down at least 50% from recent high or 90% from its high.

For example, SVA: if I bought at $2.45 and it went down, I will double my position at $1.3 (average down to $1.68) , then double it again at $0.65 (average down to $1.09) and holding for one year for a 100% or more return (if it goes up to $2.18) if you really believe in this company's future.

   No stop loss is placed. But profit must be protected if there is any.

   you can check www.whitepineInvest.com to see the actual result. We have an office in Beijing, China to do all the research work to make sure the company we selected will not go BK.

  By the way, SVA is just few block away from our office in Beijing.

  I did not have position in this company because I know that it is purely a concept play, no real revenue, competition is very intencive in China for vaccine. SVA is only a small player, very  hard to compete with big matured bio companies. But I will keep close eye on it and visit this company one or two times per month to see how it is going.



 

Quote from: shawFund on August 09, 2006, 08:31:32 PM
About SVA:

   This is my first post in last two month.

   If your holding period is one year, I am pretty sure that you will be profitable.

   Short term, not so optimistic. Many people are looking for a repeat of last year's pattern.
   But those may disappoint. For me $1.85 is a good entry point. Big player will try to shake most small players out before pushing it up.

   From 1/2006 - 7/2006, my portfolio gained about 50% with only about 12 trades.

   I strongly believe that the portfolio will at least double by the end of this year.

   I see tech rebound at around October. Microsoft new OP (64 bit) will bring market fresh air and will putsh many tech stocks higher.

   I used multi-buy strategy for stocks which went down at least 50% from recent high or 90% from its high.

For example, SVA: if I bought at $2.45 and it went down, I will double my position at $1.3 (average down to $1.68) , then double it again at $0.65 (average down to $1.09) and holding for one year for a 100% or more return (if it goes up to $2.18) if you really believe in this company's future.

   No stop loss is placed. But profit must be protected if there is any.

   you can check www.whitepineInvest.com to see the actual result. We have an office in Beijing, China to do all the research work to make sure the company we selected will not go BK.

  By the way, SVA is just few block away from our office in Beijing.

  I did not have position in this company because I know that it is purely a concept play, no real revenue, competition is very intencive in China for vaccine. SVA is only a small player, very  hard to compete with big matured bio companies. But I will keep close eye on it and visit this company one or two times per month to see how it is going.

Shawfund,

Nice to see you around here again, and thanks for the very interesting insight on SVA.  I think that it goes up eventually this year as bird flu panic inevitably happens again.  Just because most transmission so far has not been human to human via inhilation, doesnt mean the virus cannot mutate to do so.  Greed and fear are the primary movers of the market, and thus bird flu moves stocks with no earnings to incredible heights.  This will happen to SVA, doubling from its current price here seems nearly inevitable to me, but current indications are that it may go down again first before that happens.  In such a case, scaling in as you suggest may be a good tactic, one which I am considering. 

I recall you were going to double your position in AMD at $20, did you do that?  Also curious where you see AMD bottoming, and your target for them?  I currently think that if they hit $15 at any point I will buy hand over fist.  And yes, I agree that October seems like a good time for a tech rally to start.

About my take in AMD, see my current holdings section in www.whitepineInvest.com. I update the contents once per month.

I doubled it at $17.39 last month which brought the average entry price down to $21.59 and I will double it again if it drops to $10.00,  just like I did in MOVI.

I have to admit that I was too early taking position on AMD at $30, that voilated my own rule: to initiate a position at least the stock down 50% from its recent high ($42 for AMD).

If I followed my own rule, the first take will be at $21.00, not $30.

AMD via INTC: I bought into AMD first on Jan 2004 at its high ($16.94, I remember)
because I loved AMD's 64 bit 32-bit compatible CPU product. That made the first time AMD became market leader over INTC in its 20 year history.
I still don't know why INTC then-64 bit CPU was designed as a non-32 bit compatible product.

Now two year passed, INTC finally brought new products to PC market duel core. But AMD continues its lead on SERVER and profit margin is much higher than PC market.

Server is different from PC. The design circle for sever is much longer and much more difficult than a new PC design. Once a company adopted a server CPU, it is very hard for the company to change anyther CPU.

So AMD will win big as more and more big players using AMD server chips. HP, SUN first and then DELL. Now IBM just joined. 


I have made some inhancement on my strategy section (see update on investment strategy): I will be also looking for companies with growth momentum and take position at pilot point.

We have a research team in Beijing. The team first check stocks gained >10% with high volumes everyday. Then check news for those companies.

If the gain is due to good earnings, higher guidelines, we will check into the numbers to try to give new valuation to that stock.

If we believe that the profit can stay in the near future, we will put it into watching list.

Then we will wait for it to pull back and wait for buying signal.

Nice to hear from you Shawfund and thanks for your insights !

Update:
After this 2 candles, SVA is now trading near the short term ascending support, which may bring some buying pressure at these levels.
We are not setting a stop yet, but we don't want to hold SVA if the support is broken, as it will change our technical overview on this play.

Trading Plan:
Hold SVA

Quote from: tokyopua on August 09, 2006, 04:05:33 PM
Fous, I am applauding you for this analysis because you gave me pause and so I saved money not getting in at the open.  Thanks!

In fact I still didnt get in, I am trying to figure this one out.  I noticed SVA had its original decline start right around the time the overall market started declining in May, and today felt pretty bearish so I am wondering if there is still more downside.  Did you get in at 2.15 as you were hoping?

Great toky glad to have helped you out I got in yesterday at 2.14 in the later hours of trading.


Some light shining in on SVA today showing some potential signs of a reversal, i mean look at that light!  Price made a nice bounce off of the ascending support line today on a slim 38k shares but formed a nice looking gravestone doji candle wich suggests a potential rally tomorrow.

Lets see what friday brings us 

-fous

QDEL - another good Bird flu Stock...... Recently insider buying !!!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=QDEL

Quote from: fous on August 10, 2006, 09:26:43 PM

Quote from: tokyopua on August 09, 2006, 04:05:33 PM
Fous, I am applauding you for this analysis because you gave me pause and so I saved money not getting in at the open.  Thanks!

In fact I still didnt get in, I am trying to figure this one out.  I noticed SVA had its original decline start right around the time the overall market started declining in May, and today felt pretty bearish so I am wondering if there is still more downside.  Did you get in at 2.15 as you were hoping?

Great toky glad to have helped you out I got in yesterday at 2.14 in the later hours of trading.


Some light shining in on SVA today showing some potential signs of a reversal, i mean look at that light!  Price made a nice bounce off of the ascending support line today on a slim 38k shares but formed a nice looking gravestone doji candle wich suggests a potential rally tomorrow.

Lets see what friday brings us 

-fous

Cool effect on the light, I like it!

Averaged in now at 2.12 myself, hoping that support line keeps shining the light!  It has been a tough day for stocks in general today, we will likely have to give this one some more time before it starts running (last year the big run started in mid August).

formed a doji and touched the ascending trendline that was 2.08 on friday...

fibonacci retracement

Update:
SVA is now trading at the ascending support line, we expect a positive reaction here, and otherwise we'll have to drop this position.
Friday's little Doji candle after the recent sell off, suggests a reversal.

Trading Plan:
Hold SVA