3SOF

The 3.60 target that was IN PLAY from the July 13 Bear Flag pattern break MADE within two cents on August 15.  The low was 3.62.

Although the second Bear Flag target of 2.97 still is IN PLAY, SIRI might have double-bottomed here at 3.60 and 3.62, so that one might not get MADE. 

We'll look at the "W"-Bottom possibility next post.

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 27, 2006, 04:24:46 AM
We'll look at the "W"-Bottom possibility next post.

I've drawn the pattern above the chart, for those not familiar with it.  A print of 4.85, above the middle of the "W," is a technical breakout, and would put the target of 6.06 IN PLAY (math is on the chart).

A few comments on this Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart:

1. Solid green line is like an 8-day price-related MACD.  Solid red is 22-day.

2. Notice at the mid-March low, and again at the May low, the 8 and 22-day were inverted.  Green was below red.

3. On both occasions, SIRI got a "thrust" higher, the 8 (green) made a bullish cross above the 22, SIRI came back and tagged them, then had a nice little rally.

That doesn't always happen, but as with any moving averages, we like to see them in their proper sequence: the faster one above the slower one.

4. Currently, SIRI is "ahead of itself."  It's above both the green and the red lines, it's at the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) which oftern is resistance, and the 8 and 22-days are bearish (green below red). 

SIRI could blast right through the Kumo (Cloud), which would accomplish getting the 8 above the 22, but a pullback after a bullish cross is fairly common.

Probably more than anyone wants to know about Ichimoku. 

Weekly MACD also has been looking very good.  See next chart.

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 27, 2006, 04:44:41 AM
Weekly MACD also has been looking very good.  See next chart.

After successive tags of the signal line and rallies, MACD had a Bullish Inverse H&S breakout this week.

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 27, 2006, 04:50:06 AM
After successive tags of the signal line and rallies, MACD had a Bullish Inverse H&S breakout this week.

SIRI is getting a pop this morning.  It's above the Symmetrical Triangle this morning (easier to see on the chart that I posted at the bottom of page 7).

A close today of 4.16, or better, is a technical breakout.  30-day average volume is 31 million shares.  We'd like to see at least double that on a breakout.  With two hours of trading remaining volume only is 37 million.

SIRI currently is BID 4.18...ASK 4,19

Melf , once again thanks for the work on your update of this stock.
I was out today and was unable to be here with you all at 3SOF.
I will give applaud to you ,but will have to wait 1 hour.....

Quote from: setravis on September 05, 2006, 08:57:45 PM
Melf , once again thanks for the work on your update of this stock.

setravis,

You're very welcome.  We got the breakout on a closing basis (4.19), but the volume wasn't strong.  That surprises me since it was a breakout above recent congestion, at 4.02 -4.16, AND a pattern breakout, at 4.16.  We need some upside follow-thru on volume, esprecially through 4.335.  That's the top of the Kumo (Cloud) resistance.

No volume on yesterday's breakout, and it's set to close back below the breakout. 
I don't like that.

SeekingAlpha
XM Satellite CEO Parsons Sparks Shares Above 50 Day Moving Average
Wednesday September 20, 3:13 pm ET


Ant & Sons submits: Last week, XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: XMSR - News) shares broke above their 50 day moving average for just the second time in months. The stock has been plagued by fierce competition from rival Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI - News), FCC compliance, cuts in subscriber guidance and a track record of losses. The catalyst then to move the stock higher was another analyst upgrade, the latest from Credit Suisse analyst Brian Kraft, who said that "management's guidance now implies realistic assumptions for retail gross additions."


This time, however, words coming from XM chairman Gary Parsons, who spoke at this morning's Goldman Sachs' Communacopia conference in New York, moved XM shares. In a similar tone, Parsons echoed that "the negative news events" earlier this year were "problematic for a couple of quarters," but those issues would be "clearing up going forward." Through his remarks, the chairman tried to emphasize the long-term growth potential for the company and believes that there is "significant upside potential" for XM shares. Parsons added that the company is now in a much better inventory position after its FCC problems, saying that "we will be in pretty good inventory shape across the board for the holidays."



Also helping to boost the satellite radio company's shares higher was an announcement from Sirius Satellite Radio, flat out denying speculation and rumors that Howard Stern would leave the company. XM Satellite shares are higher by $.39 to $13.70, approaching resistance of $14.00 that could be broken if the stock catches some late afternoon volume and momentum surge.

So far, however, volume has remained relatively light, indicating some skepticism on the part of investing believing that XM Satellite's troubles are over.

Double Bottom.....Let's see where the action takes us.

I have a short term and long term theory on Sirius.

Short term, I think the stock has bottomed at $4.00, and I think with the NFL season kicking off, and their new Stiletto portable device being launched, it could serve for better than expected subscriber adds. The CEO purchased 1 Million shares at a price 10% higher than SIRI stock is currently trading. SIRI should be cash flow positive (not profitable) in Q4.

Long term, I think baby boomer's will begin to splurge on retirement gadgets for their cars and homes. My recently retired father-in-law is going out to get SIRI installed in his car to listen to classical music. I just don't see him using an iPOD. Yes, there are multiple threats to Sirius' business model, but I think they can navigate through those obstacles. I absolutely think Apple is one of the most innovative and impressive companies I have ever seen, and I wish I owned their stock. I don't see AAPL and SIRI as direct competitors – they both can win. S&P rates SIRI as 5 stars.

Now that the Stiletto finally has its FCC sticker (Crutchfield just started taking pre-orders again today) combined with football season and the approaching holidays, we should see some decent upward moves.
Expects to rise into Christmas season with the new release of Stiletto portable. 
A merger would be nice though.

52wk Range: 3.60 - 7.98

Volume: 43,214,433
Avg Vol (3m): 33,364,000

Technicals
Most Actives

Last Price Quote is:
-1.18%below 13-day EMA
-2.43%below 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 25 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $5,718.82 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: -0.204444 
Next Earnings: 11/07/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Outperform

Quote from: setravis on September 20, 2006, 10:01:36 PM
Double Bottom.....Let's see where the action takes us.

setravis,

Thanks for your analysis.  Applause.  I'm having a lot of difficulty trying to figure out where the action is going to take us.

   

Quote from: Melf Elf on September 06, 2006, 03:45:57 PM
No volume on yesterday's breakout, and it's set to close back below the breakout.
I don't like that.

After the breakdown of the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in blue), and double bottom that you mentioned, at 3.60 - 3.62, I figured it for a downside fakeout when SIRI broke out to the UPSIDE on Sept 5, on the print of 4.16, which I bought.

Nope. No volume.  Closed back below the breakout the next day, at 4.08, so I took a loss of 1.9%.

Curses!    

Currently, we've got a Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in green) at the apex of the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in blue).  It's skimpy, though, and looks weak.

If I extend the top of the Symmetrical Triangle to the left, however, it comes in at 4.4285 on July 31.  The high that day, where it says "Bear Flag/Channel Re-test Failure" on this chart, was 4.43, so we've got three data points, validating the trendline, and it "could be" the neckline of a Bullish Inverse H&S pattern.

I'll show you that next post.

It would be unusual, to say the least, to have the right side of a "W"-Bottom be a Bullish Inverse H&S, but it "looks like it," nonetheless.   

The little greeen weak- looking Symmetrical Triangle doesn't look so wimpy if it's the Right Shoulder of the Bullish Inverse H&S.

Regardless of whether it is, or it isn't, we do have a validated trendline (shown as a neckline on this chart), so we might get something if it gets taken out on VOLUME this time.


But, like I said, I'm having difficulty figuring this chart out, so the Inverse H&S could be all wet.

Earnings in, prmkt up 3.5%. I like the prospects at this level. Fingers crossed.

Reuters
Sirius Satellite 3rd-qtr loss narrows
Wednesday November 8, 7:26 am ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI - News) said on Wednesday its quarterly net loss narrowed as revenue more than doubled on a sharp increase in subscribers to its fee-based service.

The third-quarter net loss was $162.9 million, or 12 cents a share, versus a loss of $180.4 million, or 14 cents per share, a year ago.

The company added about 441,000 net subscribers in the quarter for a total of 5.1 million.

Both Sirius and bigger rival XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:XMSR - News) are growing rapidly but losing money as they beef up their technologies and enlist top-shelf entertainment, such as Sirius deals with the National Football League and shock jock Howard Stern.

SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO INC.
Wachovia cut shares in Sirius Satellite to "market perform" from "outperform" on Thursday. Wachovia said the paired trade opportunity with rival XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc.
which was the primary basis for the brokerage's previous rating on Sirius, has ended.
Sirius shares rose 2.9 percent to $4.23 on the Nasdaq.


Getting Sirius......
SIRI on Cramer's recommend last night. No matter what one may think of him, he has been dead on with his picks lately. Also, I was very impressed by Mel Karmazin in the interview last night.
Satalite high speed internet/phone/gps will be your basic standard pocket rocket in the future...access any time, anywhere in the world. 
Bail if $4 gets breached for more than a moment.
It either goes up big long term or it goes broke.

52wk Range: 3.60 - 7.98
Volume: 90,862,746.............
Avg Vol (3m): 32,168,000

Support @ $4.19...4.10...3.92
Resistance @ $4.30...4.58...4.75

Technicals
Most Actives
Stochastic is Bullish

Last Price Quote is:
10.14%above 13-day MA
9.57%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 70 

Fundamentals
Analyst Downgrade to Mkt Perform

Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $5,479.95 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: -0.208889 
Next Earnings: 02/16/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Mkt Perform

Touched the 200 ma. Nice candle stick. Would like a couple more days like this. Could be a christmas special. 

uc.