3SOF

Hello Se7en, how are you doing after that last minute draw against Chelsea? You truly have an European spirit, howcome a Belgian is a Barcelona fan?

Checking a bit more stuff on VPHM, here is a chart of historical market cap, instead of the share price:



The market cap grew 1357%, from $65.2 M in 1996 to $885 M now. The share price is up just 30% over the same 10 year period.

How's this possible?

Of course, a company's value is given by the market cap, and market cap = share price*number of shares outstanding. So, intuitively you can see the number of shares outstanding has been steadily up over these years, and this explains the paradox of market cap up much more than the share price (in fact, in extremes, the market cap can go up, that is, the value of a company can go up and at the same time the share price can go down, making all fundamental analysis relatively useless).



See the rise in the # of shares outstanding ... unfortunately VPHM is diluting shareholder value. It needs to start working for the shareholder benefit so investors can earn real money.

I'll keep an eye on it ... good luck 

Actually, if we go down to a quarter by quarter level, we can see that maybe what I was requesting is already happening. In February the 24th, 2006, the company had 68,585,108 shares outstanding. In May 2, they had 68,587,608 shares and in their latest 10-Q report, they reported 68,597,680 shares outstanding in July 31st.

So, at least they're issuing much less stock now than in the past. Maybe they don't need to do that anymore, as they have $224 M in cash and cash equivalents. Perhaps the company is now ready to benefit shareholders.

Nice volume yesterday on that 50 day moving average test:

Is this the real DR. Come on back to us, please Dave. We need those theories, those predictions, those insights, those book suggestions, those rules, those detailed analysis, and most of all that comradory that this site was founded on. This is no slight to Rams, I fully appreciate the site he has created but I miss the old days very much.

Please and Thank you

uc.

Yes, I'm thinking of coming back to stock trading and 3 Stocks. I've been away for too long and have talked to Ramsburg on my comeback. We agreed, so all I have to do now is to catch up with everything I've lost on 3 Stocks and markets over the last 8 months or so. I believe it will take a month for me to be back in full power.

Thanks for your support usedcasting, I also miss the old days 

Hi David,
Nice to see you,
I am so happy you back.
gogo

Quote from: David Randolph on November 03, 2006, 07:16:22 AM
Hello Se7en, how are you doing after that last minute draw against Chelsea? You truly have an European spirit, howcome a Belgian is a Barcelona fan

Please don't remind of that undeserved late equalizer!!
I've been a fan of Barça since I was a little kid, it was kind of hard to resist to those very beautiful blaugrana colors and especially let's not forget the beautiful football Barça has a patent on!!
Visca el Barça! 

Quote from: David Randolph on November 03, 2006, 09:18:21 AM
Yes, I'm thinking of coming back to stock trading and 3 Stocks. I've been away for too long and have talked to Ramsburg on my comeback. We agreed, so all I have to do now is to catch up with everything I've lost on 3 Stocks and markets over the last 8 months or so. I believe it will take a month for me to be back in full power.

Thanks for your support usedcasting, I also miss the old days 

Holy Moly, am I seeing this right, you are thinking of coming back?    Im all giddy over here in Boston to see you back and posting so much!  Its like Christmas may be coming early this year, really hope that your "thinking" of coming back turns into coming back for good!!!

Lol tokyopua, thanks for your support 

Yes, I'm pretty sure I'll be back to active writing and probably running a part of the 3 Stocks Portfolio soon. I just need to spend some time analysing stocks and get used to this work again. I'm sorry for such a prolonged absence 

I always thought you were in Tokyo, after all you're in Boston ... I'm curious about your Bird Flu play, why now? It seems there's not a lot of talk or interest on the group now.

Nice to talk to you 

David!!!.. I'm glad to hear from you .. I wish the best for you & tour team..
Good luck

Welcome back David/Cesar  (should we stock to David?)

Have you feel the enthusiasm and the positive vibrations ?? 

just FYI:

Nothing's Wrong With ViroPharma

By Brian Lawler
November 3, 2006

Just the whiff of impending generic drug competition can be disastrous to the share price of a pharmaceutical company, and this has been the case this year with shares of ViroPharma (Nasdaq: VPHM). The potential introduction of generic versions of its lead product, Vancocin, which treats infections of the gastrointestinal tract, is possible sometime next year.

Despite the possibility of this negative upcoming event for ViroPharma's only marketed product, sales of Vancocin have been rising nicely over the past year due to price increases and strong prescription growth for the drug. Sales were $55 million in the quarter and are expected to be up at least 29% for all of 2006 compared to 2005. Earnings for the quarter were $23 million, $0.33 a share.

In the past few months, ViroPharma has made great strides in moving its pipeline along, in case Vancocin faces generic competition in the future. It moved Maribavir, its drug to treat a form of herpes that occurs in immunosuppressed people, into phase 3 trials. Additionally, ViroPharma and partner Wyeth (NYSE: WYE) just initiated a 267-person phase 2 trial testing its polymerase inhibitor hepatitis C treatment.

Investors will notice that shares of ViroPharma are trading at 16 times its trailing-12-month earnings (excluding a one-time tax benefit). This very cheap valuation is obviously due to the possibility that Vancocin may face generic competition sometime in the near future. ViroPharma made somewhat of a case back in June for why the drug shouldn't see generic competition without human clinical trials for any generic equivalents, but it is still up in the air whether the FDA's Office of Generic Drugs division will be amenable to these arguments. News on this front is very unpredictable, and timelines for when the FDA will release more information on the possibility of generic Vancocin have not been established.

What happens to Vancocin will determine how well shares of ViroPharma perform in the near future, but at least ViroPharma's management has taken the right steps in securing its long-term future with the progress it has made in its drug pipeline.

http://www.fool.com/news/mft/2006/mft06110311.htm?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y&bounce=y&bounce2=y

Quote from: David Randolph on November 03, 2006, 11:21:03 AM
Lol tokyopua, thanks for your support 

Yes, I'm pretty sure I'll be back to active writing and probably running a part of the 3 Stocks Portfolio soon. I just need to spend some time analysing stocks and get used to this work again. I'm sorry for such a prolonged absence 

I always thought you were in Tokyo, after all you're in Boston ... I'm curious about your Bird Flu play, why now? It seems there's not a lot of talk or interest on the group now.

Nice to talk to you 

Well, even the possibility that you will be back is exciting.  I learned so much from you, and actually took it somewhat for granted when you were still posting at the beginning of the year.  (As with many things in life, we only realize their full value when we lose them.)  In the meantime, on your recommendation I have read Nison's Candlestick Charting book and Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and have been trading much better ever since  

About my screen name, I lived for 5 years in Tokyo in total (once for 2 years, another time for 3 years) but Im American and living in Boston now.  There is much more story to myscreen name, simply google it if you are curious and open minded  

As for my bird flu plays, I am mainly betting on a repeat of last year's trends.  Unlike betting on hurricanes that never happened, I believe from all the reading I have done on the subject that the threat of bird flu is simply not going to dissapear anytime soon.  I made 77% recently anticipating the run in GNBT (the Catching the Falling Knife thread, though admittedly much of that rise was due to their diabetes related drugs), so I am trying to pull of a similar bottom play with EMFP in particular as it has not yet rallied like NVAX, GNBT, SVA etc.  My thinking is that the basic candlestick support levels make buying EMFP at .8 roughly a 20% loss potential to 100% return potential in the near term.  I also found many months ago that they retained council to help them with military contracts, so there is that speculative aspect as well.

As for having most of my stocks bird flu related, I am uncertain about where the market is going but I expect bird flu stocks to have their own bull market as they did last year.  If the overall market goes down from here, then maybe that will cancel out and I wont lose much.  If the market does well, I believe the bird flu stocks will be bouyed and perform that much better.  I dont short stocks so this is my own way of attempting to hedge my bets after having had great returns in the last 2 months.

Time will tell  

QuoteWell, even the possibility that you will be back is exciting.  I learned so much from you, and actually took it somewhat for granted when you were still posting at the beginning of the year.  (As with many things in life, we only realize their full value when we lose them.)  In the meantime, on your recommendation I have read Nison's Candlestick Charting book and Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and have been trading much better ever since  Cheesy

Thanks for your pleasant words tokyopua  Reminiscences is an extraordinary book, you just need to beware because Livermore wasn't very good about controlling risk.

Now I'll recommend you another book: "Stock Market Wizards - Interviews with America's Top Stock Traders", from Jack D. Schwager.

QuoteAbout my screen name, I lived for 5 years in Tokyo in total (once for 2 years, another time for 3 years) but Im American and living in Boston now.  There is much more story to myscreen name, simply google it if you are curious and open minded  Wink

Lol, you made me laugh ... so you want to be a full time PUA? Nice job 

QuoteAs for my bird flu plays, I am mainly betting on a repeat of last year's trends.  Unlike betting on hurricanes that never happened, I believe from all the reading I have done on the subject that the threat of bird flu is simply not going to dissapear anytime soon.  I made 77% recently anticipating the run in GNBT (the Catching the Falling Knife thread, though admittedly much of that rise was due to their diabetes related drugs), so I am trying to pull of a similar bottom play with EMFP in particular as it has not yet rallied like NVAX, GNBT, SVA etc.  My thinking is that the basic candlestick support levels make buying EMFP at .8 roughly a 20% loss potential to 100% return potential in the near term.  I also found many months ago that they retained council to help them with military contracts, so there is that speculative aspect as well.

As for having most of my stocks bird flu related, I am uncertain about where the market is going but I expect bird flu stocks to have their own bull market as they did last year.  If the overall market goes down from here, then maybe that will cancel out and I wont lose much.  If the market does well, I believe the bird flu stocks will be bouyed and perform that much better.  I dont short stocks so this is my own way of attempting to hedge my bets after having had great returns in the last 2 months.

I like your macro reasoning. Just be carefull with one thing: EMFP is an OTCBB stock, and those companies usually are in the market to take money away from investors, not to share results (because they're too young or sometimes their business model isn't profitable at all and they need the stock market to go on living another year). So, it is possible that all your macro reasons are right, and yet you fail to make money on EMFP because the company is diluting shareholder value.

Do you want me to check this for you, or better, do you want me to teach you how to make this test? (it's important especially on OTCBB traded stocks). If you are, please ask the question on an EMFP thread, I'm sure there's one on 3 Stocks.

Nice talking 

Bought VPHM at 12.58 on the 34/55RSI Buy Signal.  Stop: 12.19.  Risk: a loss of 3.1%.

Friday's low of 12.21 was a validation of the trendline off the July 7.07 low.  I like that.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 13, 2006, 04:00:16 PM
Bought VPHM at 12.58 on the 34/55RSI Buy Signal.  Stop: 12.19.  Risk: a loss of 3.1%.

Friday's low of 12.21 was a validation of the trendline off the July 7.07 low.  I like that.

Friday's low was a second validation of that trendling (Green #4), then today was a Bullish Engulfing candle (not shown yet on this chart).

nice to see you again MelfElf, should we use this thread now?

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=6770.msg75808#msg75808

cheers
O.

(still invested in @ 9..4 and May 07 12.5 $ calls)