3SOF

Yup I'm loving it!!   

Looking very strong at the close!! This is getting exciting guys!!

Quote from: stocks2watch2 on October 27, 2006, 09:46:37 AM
Bounced off the 3.23 support, I bought 15,000 more. I think we at least go back to 4.54 soon.

4.33 AH

on fire

4 was nothing, taken out easier than I thought....that's what we call a short masacre, I mean, a short squeeze

  wow, thats what i call a close. i kept raising my selling price, finally sold some at 4.25. my heart couldnt take it anymore!! great posts everyone!! la-londa great picture. now lets go to the moon.!!!!

It took me 1 1/2 hours to read this entire thread, but it was worth it  . I wish I've read it earlier. Anyway, here's my perspective on the stock:

1) SIGA rejected $68 M when it backed off from the merger with PharmAthene. The only reason to do this is because management thinks the company is worth a lot more.
2) Current market cap is $135 M.
3) The government is supporting SIGA's research and tests with money.
4) The SIGA-246 test on monkeys was 100% successful and without side effects.
5) The government plans to acquire $1.9 B of smallpox related drugs. SIGA is the leading treatment.
6) There was a private placement, but it wasn't big, just $9 M, and it was bought by hedge funds at $4.54.
7) Technical analysis is very bullish, with the stock coming back after a period of consolidation
There's an element of emotion here, since smallpox shows up in every history book as the deadliest disease ever.
9) Vulnerability of 223 million Americans that were never vaccinated against smallpox

I could go on with bullish information (most of it taken out from this thread), but I think you get the point. I believe SIGA can double from current levels, reaching a market cap of $270 M, easily. 

There are risks, however. There are always risks. The company may dilute shareholders value by issuing and selling shares in the open market. The drug can be effective on monkeys, but not effective on humans. It can take a long time for the drug to be approved. SIGA doesn't have an history of financial stability or profits to be supportive if the share price starts declining.  Warren Buffet would never buy this, that's for sure.

But, you're either a speculator or you're not. As I view it, a speculator MUST buy SIGA now. It may go up 100 or 200% on speculation alone. Because there's room to dream here. You're not attached to fundamentals, you're allowed to dream.

Bulls have the ball now, and I bet they will score. If they don't, there are always protective stop losses to use. I guess a buy tomorrow below today's high may deliver a 100% plus return with no more than 15% risk.

I already cashed in a 187% profit on this one, another 100% wouldn't be bad! 

Thx for your take on SIGA David!

Applaud David.......

Excellent analysis on SIGA.........so does that mean that you are buying this for the 3sof tomorrow morning?

Thank you to everyone who kept this thread alive........or else I wouldn't have jumped in.  I liked how the candlestick was looking today so I decided to jump in.  Again, great work everyone!!

Thai

Quote from: stocks2watch2 on November 07, 2006, 03:58:22 PM

Bounced off the 3.23 support, I bought 15,000 more. I think we at least go back to 4.54 soon.

we came pretty close 4.42!!

Quote from: bocasva on November 07, 2006, 10:43:58 AM  3.75 broken for good and should act as support from now on, 4 is the next battle to win

bocasva, i hope so!  4 is holding so far.  i would like to add more if we drop under 4!

Chart still looks good guys!!    As you can see from the chart yesterday, it made its move once it retraced to it's breakout point  in the late afternoon.  As you can see, it has just retraced back to the breakout point again and hopefully we can see the same kind of result as we did during the last closing moments of yesterday's trading day.  Keep your fingers crossed.

Was hoping SIGA would close above $4, but no such luck

SIGA will probably go down in the morning. (unless news) but I think 3.75 should provide good support and possible entry point

We shall see.

Just for the record, I bought SIGA at the open at $4.05 and sold 1/2 an hour before the close at $3.90 for a 3.7% loss (-0.24% for the total equity - anyway, the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio was up 2.87% today  ). I had the plan of selling if the stock were about to close below $4.

Here's my reasoning:

QuoteI actually was quite uncomfortable holding SIGA during today's session. I should have said "sell with a 5% profit" hehe, but I didn't, and I always follow what I say when the markets are closed.

I was reading some articles about smallpox and acknowledged that the disease is extinct since 1978. Officially there are only two locations that kept the virus for studies: one lab in the US and another in Russia. The concern is that the USSR had a secret biological weapons programme and created many more locations with the variola virus, and later those virus got to rogue states and terrorist groups.

I just think that if they had it, they would have already used it, since it would be so simple and there's no limit to their evil. Government has $1.9 B for smallpox, but $700 M plus already went to Wyeth's vaccine, Dryvax. Those $1.9 B are until 2013, I don't think there will be much more.

The bullish case was getting more and more difficult to defend in my head, and when I saw the stock come back down to $4 after that 10% morning rally, I knew I would take a loss on SIGA.

It was a small 3.7% loss on 6.66% of capital, this means 0.24% of total capital. I like to take small losses and large profits, so the global result is an above average return.

Good luck to everybody that continues holding SIGA 

Thanks David!  I like how you keep to your game plan and just move on............I think that's one of the most important things to learn about trading stocks.   

Unfortunately, I haven't learned yet    

I'll continue to hold since I am risk free at the moment. 

Thai

Quote from: thai626 on November 08, 2006, 05:29:52 PM
Thanks David!  I like how you keep to your game plan and just move on............I think that's one of the most important things to learn about trading stocks.   

Unfortunately, I haven't learned yet    

I'll continue to hold since I am risk free at the moment. 

Thai

I agree with you Thai, it's one of the most important and most difficult to implement. Allow me to recommend you an excellent book on the subject: The Disciplined Trader, from Mark Douglas. It's not an easy read, but I've read it 7 or 8 times and I love it !