3SOF

hi,
i wanted to pull the trigger on thursday before close when i could see even after news it couldn't break 412. i said no i will wait until morning and i will sell it . morning came , and i did not pull the trigger even though my finger was on it and every fiber of my being wanted out , lol. sold 377.

so i decided to try an analysis on the weekly chart based on pivot, support and reistance calculations which i normally use on day charts . i will see how this pans out this week and maybe continue with other stocks, here goes:
what went wrong with siga ? well, nothing if you got in at $1.50 or even $3.20. plenty , if you are in at 5 bucks or like myself, 406 and selling for a loss, looking for a pop on news .
    the news came...........  and came........and came again , no pop. more of an ignition , then a fizzle, like one of those roman candles that fails to ignite fully.
      all the news of the world couldn't move this stubborn stock this week. finally, on friday they ran out of things to  say and the stock fell over. but as you can see below in the weekly chart it is still bullish and there might be a good entry point down the road with some more consolidation. come on, they've got the cure for smallpox!
my calculations are as follows based on the previous week high , low , close.
this weeks pivot =3.88
high: 4.19 +  low: 3.70 + close: 3.76 =11.65  divide by 3 =3.88

support 1. : 3.57
3.88+3.88=7.76 -4.19=3.57

support 2: 3.39
3.88 - .49  ( 4.06 - 3.57 = .49) = 3.39

resistance 1: 4.06
3.88 + 3.88 = 7.76 - 3.70 = 4.06

resistance 2:  4.37
3.88 + .49 = 4.37

so i am going to watch this week and update this next weekend to see how it reacted to these calculations .
thanks,
maxi

p.s. notice the ema 20 comes in at 359 just 2cents above my support. the 5ema comes in at 3.89 one penny above my pivot

Maxi,

As the kids say, "You GO, Boy!"

What a lot of hard work you did on your calculations!  Great.  Applause.

Quote from: rickjust on November 18, 2006, 04:36:33 PM
i wanted to pull the trigger on thursday before close when i could see even after news it couldn't break 412. i said no i will wait until morning and i will sell it . morning came , and i did not pull the trigger even though my finger was on it and every fiber of my being wanted out , lol. sold 377.

Isn't that a pain in the %#@#?

Quote
the news came...........  and came........and came again , no pop. more of an ignition , then a fizzle, like one of those roman candles that fails to ignite fully.
      all the news of the world couldn't move this stubborn stock this week. finally, on friday they ran out of things to  say and the stock fell over.

In addition the to chart patterns/support levels that I post in the Previous Picks folder, that stood out, on the fundamental side: a lack of response to "good news" didn't translate as "good news" for the price of the stock,

Thursday's rally to 4.19, above the recent 4.17 high, was a fakeout, that fizzled on Friday, then the triangle broke.

I'm not sure if I've got this recent pattern drawn correctly.  It could be TWO separate patterns, which I'll try to post Monday's open.

Both this chart, and the TWO separate patterns have short-term Bearish implications, though.

Wouldn't it be great fun, if we all could put our heads together, and catch a nice rally in SIGA, like that nice channel breakout on November 7, that put a target of 4.45 IN PLAY?  It MADE.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 18, 2006, 05:17:45 PM
Maxi,




Wouldn't it be great fun, if we all could put our heads together, and catch a nice rally in SIGA, like that nice channel breakout on November 7, that put a target of 4.45 IN PLAY?  It MADE.

thanks melf ,
i will be watching . i don't thinl k it is " game over" for this one just yet
maxi

Quote from: rickjust on November 18, 2006, 05:24:36 PM

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 18, 2006, 05:17:45 PM
Maxi,




Wouldn't it be great fun, if we all could put our heads together, and catch a nice rally in SIGA, like that nice channel breakout on November 7, that put a target of 4.45 IN PLAY?  It MADE.

thanks melf ,
i will be watching . i don't thinl k it is " game over" for this one just yet
maxi

I ² that and I'm still in by the way! 

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 18, 2006, 05:17:45 PM
I'm not sure if I've got this recent pattern drawn correctly.  It could be TWO separate patterns, which I'll try to post Monday's open.

Forget that idea.  It seems to confuse the issue, rather than add any clarity.

If the Triangle pattern is going to play out (the bottom of it is the yellow line in this chart), then roughly 3.20 is IN PLAY.

Math:

4.48 - was the high
3.81 - was the low

4.48 - 3.81 = 0.67 Points

The breakdown occurred on Friday, crossing below about 3.87, so...
3.87 - 0.67 = Target: 3.20

Alternatively, a possibility is that the triangle will morph into a downward sloping channel, a "fractal" (repeating pattern) of the one that broke out on November 7.

If that's the case, we need Data Point #4, another "hit" to the bottom of the channel, which basis the daily chart, comes in on Monday, November 20, at 3.56.  Depends on what hour the low would come in, basis this Hourly Chart.

We also could have a Bullish Falling Wedge, and the low already is in, at Friday's 3.70 low (we'd simply move the trendline for Data Point #4 up under the 4.70 low).

If we've got another Channel, or the Bullish Falling Wedge, the breakout above the down trendline (#1 and #3) for Monday, November 20, is a print of 4.08.

Interestingly, the 34/55 RSIs came into Bullish Synchronicity of Friday.  I'll put up that chart and explain the implications in the next post.

The 34/55RSIs last came into Bullish Synchronicity on November 2.  The high that day was 3.65, so that became the "buy pivot," meaning that a print of 3.66 the next day would be a "buy signal."

The high the next day, November 3, only was 3.42, so no "buy signal" was issued.  But, SIGA closed up a penny, to 3.35, so the 34/55 RSIs remained at Bullish Synchronicity, meaning that the 3.42 high of November 3 became the new "buy pivot."  A print of 3.43 in the next session, Monday, November 6, would be a "buy signal."

3.43 got printed on November 6, so the "buy signal" was issued.  If we look back at the hourly chart, that's when the Channel was forming, so that was a good indication ("lead indicator") that the resolution would be an upside breakout of the channel.

The channel broke out the next session, November 7, crossing about 3.55, putting the 4.45 target IN PLAY (I posted the math back in another post).

If we had taken the 3.42 "buy signal," and held SIGA to the 4.45 target, the gain would have been 30.1%.  Not bad.

So, we're now back at Bullish Synchronicity at Friday's close.  Friday's high was 3.99, so that's the "buy pivot," meaning that a print of 4.00 on Monday, November 20 is a "buy signal."  And, we know that a print of 4.08 is a breakout above the down trendline (#1 and #3) on the hourly chart.

What I'd really, really like to see, is for SIGA to go down and put in Data Point #4 for a channel, near 3.56, NOT print the 4.00 "buy signal," and give us a lower "buy pivot," like it did back on November 2 and November 3.

This thing didn't come out on YHOO, but it was published on the SEC site on Friday, 2 PM:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1010086/000116923206004592/d69918_s-3.txt

Dilution.

Besides dilution, my fundamental concern on SIGA is this:

QuoteI was reading some articles about smallpox and acknowledged that the disease is extinct since 1978. Officially there are only two locations that kept the virus for studies: one lab in the US and another in Russia. The concern is that the USSR had a secret biological weapons programme and created many more locations with the variola virus, and later those virus got to rogue states and terrorist groups.

I just think that if they had it, they would have already used it, since it would be so simple and there's no limit to their evil. Government has $1.9 B for smallpox, but $700 M plus already went to Wyeth's vaccine, Dryvax. Those $1.9 B are until 2013, I don't think there will be much more.

Good luck to people still holding, I was out with a 3.7% loss at $3.90.

Quote from: David Randolph on November 19, 2006, 08:32:55 AM
This thing didn't come out on YHOO, but it was published on the SEC site on Friday, 2 PM:

Thanks, David. 

It looks like SIGA sold off on that 2PM news, but it bounced a little in the final hour.  Still below the triangle breadown, though.


                                                   Proposed Maximum     Proposed Maximum
Title of Each Class of             Amount to be      Offering Price     Aggregate Offering      Amount of
Securities to be Registered         Registered          Per Unit              Price          Registration Fee
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
<S>                                <C>                 <C>                 <C>                  <C>
common stock, par value $.0001
per share .....................    3,272,400(1)        $  3.98(2)           $  13,007,790        $  1,391.83
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

That 3.98 is interesting, since Monday's "buy pivot" is 4.00 , and a breakout above the down trendline is 4.08,, so to get either of those two numbers, or both, buyers would have to show willingness to play more than that 3.98.

We'll see how that news plays out in the chart.  Interesting.

Oh No!    Almost everyone sold their shares except me!

I got in at 3.65 so I will risk a little longer and put in a stop order at 3.50.

I hope SIGA recovers next week as the weekly chart shows a pennant similar to the pennant before the last run up.   

Good luck everyone!

Thai

Good morning - The one thing that confuses me is how volumes returned to the levels shown prior to the huge run up and we never saw significant moves up or down accompanied by big volumes -

IMO we will likely see continued consolidation until the now democrat controlled house takes a stand on commitment to Homeland Defense - the other thing that could move it up from here on is likely going to be positive reports on human testing - good luck with that since as pointed out the disease hasn't been around for 50 years -

I got in at 1.26 - sold enough to now be playing on house money - I will ride out GLTA that are in this - if nothing else it will be interesting.

Ed

Buy from technical, sell the technical

I have to correct you on this. That was not dilution. This was just the registration of the stocks that they had issued earlier in their PIPE deal. Please read the following:

"Estimated   solely  for  the  purpose  of  computing  the  amount  of  the
      registration  fee, in accordance with Rule 457(c) under the Securities Act
      of 1933, as amended.  The maximum offering price per share is $3.98, which
      was the average high and low prices for SIGA's common stock as reported on
      the NASDAQ Capital Market on November 15, 2006."

Quote from: David Randolph on November 19, 2006, 08:32:55 AM
This thing didn't come out on YHOO, but it was published on the SEC site on Friday, 2 PM:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1010086/000116923206004592/d69918_s-3.txt

Dilution.

Besides dilution, my fundamental concern on SIGA is this:

QuoteI was reading some articles about smallpox and acknowledged that the disease is extinct since 1978. Officially there are only two locations that kept the virus for studies: one lab in the US and another in Russia. The concern is that the USSR had a secret biological weapons programme and created many more locations with the variola virus, and later those virus got to rogue states and terrorist groups.

I just think that if they had it, they would have already used it, since it would be so simple and there's no limit to their evil. Government has $1.9 B for smallpox, but $700 M plus already went to Wyeth's vaccine, Dryvax. Those $1.9 B are until 2013, I don't think there will be much more.

Good luck to people still holding, I was out with a 3.7% loss at $3.90.

Thanks for the correction wontfinddaname 

I agree that this registration is old news, related to the October 18th private placement:

SIGA Announces $9.0 Million Private Placement

Anyway, there was dilution here.

PS: Thanks for registering wontfinddaname, now keep up

Thanks for the welcome, David. This board is great. I'm really sick of the craziness on the yahoo boards.

About the article.  Well, this stock never went up because people were afraid of a live current smallpox virus breakout - like the bird flu.  It is all because of biodefense protection.  This is one of the largest biological warfare scares - which makes potential big funding from the US military and potentially other world power militaries.  So I think the US isn't the only potential funding.   I honestly think if this SIGA 246 is so good and doesn't have any side effects then the US military will find money to buy it.



Jason