3SOF

I am sitting on this one long term as well.  Anyone else here?

Aussie

Have you the thougts on that :

" XING paid $43m cash + stocks for 20% CECT. That means CECT worths no more than $215m in my math. Can someone explain to me why CECT will worth 5 times more when it goes IPO next year? "


Best,
Vova

Quote from: voova99 on November 17, 2006, 09:08:38 AM
Aussie

Have you the thougts on that :

" XING paid $43m cash + stocks for 20% CECT. That means CECT worths no more than $215m in my math. Can someone explain to me why CECT will worth 5 times more when it goes IPO next year? "


Best,
Vova

Market will value the IPO based on future earnings potential. What XING paid bears no real relation to what the potential value is when or if it goes IPO. Think about it, why would XING pay $43M for 20%? Because they know the 'market value' will be substantially higher. How high? Don't know, that is up to the market, look at what happened to EFUT.

Nice touch on ascending support line for XING today at $14. If history repeats (usually in the stock market it does) then $20 target is in play.

Good Trading

Quote from: voova99 on November 17, 2006, 09:08:38 AM
Can someone explain to me why CECT will worth 5 times more when it goes IPO next year? "

Hi Voova

Sorry to rephrase you question:

Can someone explain to me how XING can buy CECT at a PE around 5?

We are after all talking about the fastest local producer of handsets in the world largest market.

My, at this point, very dear friend Mr. Wu has done a lot of favors to friends over the years and I think it was time to pay back after a little arm wrestling.

Was it a good deal for XING. You bet it was and this has still not been reflected in the stock price since the deal was announced.

I am not sure if CECT's IPO will be valued at 1 billion but I am absolutely sure that it will be valued higher than XING's present market cap of 335 million USD and that is good enough for me.

I think the problem is that too many investors are using US logic when trying to understand XING and from what I have seen until now that is not really working 

Good  points, Michael  Thank You

Aussie, your ascending line is perfect for me 

Quote from: brandyjoco on November 16, 2006, 11:56:16 AM
I am sitting on this one long term as well.  Anyone else here?

Hey Brandy and other members. I haven't posted in this XING file for a while and apologise for that. Yes I am still holding XING and have been accumulating over the past few sessions. Full disclosure: I have long equities and call option positions, XING represents my biggest portfolio holding. Hmmmmm WHY?

Well, I am still very much of the opinion that XING price will correct upwards over the coming weeks. There has been significant developments since I last posted here 1) IPO of CECT and QXMC would seem to becoming more likley in 2007, even perhaps with CECT in Q1. 2) Bear Stearns have taken an 11% stake in XING (disclosure of their Q3 holdings). 3) Q3 results would appear to be very positive (not a fact, but just based on indicators from that market).

The Bear Stearns investment alone is a HUGe indicator of something big brewing.

Anyways, XING has pulled back to strong support around $14, my expectation is that another assault on the $17 area highs is just round the corner

Good Trading

Quote from: AussieTrader on November 17, 2006, 12:32:03 PM
Nice touch on ascending support line for XING today at $14. If history repeats (usually in the stock market it does) then $20 target is in play.

Good Trading

Nice...back in

Quote from: AussieTrader on November 23, 2006, 02:16:00 AM
Anyways, XING has pulled back to strong support around $14, my expectation is that another assault on the $17 area highs is just round the corner

Aussie,

Nice work.  Applause.

The 13.88 lows of this Descending Triangle (pattern in red) have been holding up real well.  This week's low was 13.94.

Descending Triangles often morph into Bullish Falling Wedges (dotted red line, marked T1), or Bull Flags/Bull Channels (dotted red line, marked T2).  I thought that we might get one of those, then an upside breakout, but it isn't looking that way now.

Friday was a Bullish Engulfing Pattern that engulfed the prior NINE DAYS' "real bodies" on improving volume, and it was only a half session of trading.   That looks good.

It would look even better if we see 14.45 (pattern breakout) and 14.57 (above the recent high) get printed on Monday. 

If XING pulls back a little from Friday's nice white candle, the slope of the descending line is 0.05667, so the technical breakout would be:

Tuesday, November 28:  a print above 14.386
Wednesday, November 29: a print above 14.33

A technical breakout, and especially a takeout of 14.56 recent resistance, on some volume, "should" bring in buying interest. 

Yes, touch and go on decent volume. This will be an interesting week.

Agreed, solid support and breakout here we come

HUIZHOU, Guangdong, China, Nov. 27 /Xinhua-PRNewswire/ -- Qiao Xing Universal
Telephone, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING) today provides a preliminary review of the
financial performance of its operations, for the three months ended September
30, 2006 ahead of the release of more detailed financial information including
earnings per share.

The total sales revenue for the three months ended September 30 is estimated to
reach RMB 841.9 million (USD 106.5 million).

Sales revenue from the Mobile phone segment is estimated to reach
RMB 768.3Million (USD97.3 million), driven primarily by the popularity of
the ''CECT'' branded 'A1000' and 'IP1000' Models.  These mobile phones with
ultra- long standby batteries provide about 1,000 hours of standby time and are
not available in any of our competitors' products.  'COSUN' branded
mobile handsets introduced in the second half of 2004, also benefited from
the increasing brand recognition and the expanding distribution network.

Sales revenue for the indoor, or land-line phones is estimated to reach RMB 73.6
(USD 9.3 million) for the three months ended September 30, 2006. With the
standard of living in China on the rise, households are disposed to replace old
land-line phone sets with new ones with value-added functions.

Gross profit of the XING Group is estimated to reach RMB 195.4 (USD 24.7 million
) for the third quarter of 2006, driven primarily by ''CECT'' branded mobile
phone sales.

The operating expenses of the XING Group are expected to be RMB 26.2 million (
USD 3.3 million) in the third quarter of 2006.

Income from operations of the XING Group is expected to reach RMB 169.1 million
(USD 21.4 million) for the three months ended September 30, 2006.

Mr. Wu Rui Lin, Chairman of XING, said, ''Great progress in income
from operations has been made in the third quarter of 2006.  This would
contribute towards the attainment of satisfying whole-year financial results."

Well, income is 
But huge miss in revenues 

Bought XING at 14.60.  Stop: Below 13.88.  Risk: a loss of 4.9%

Quote from: voova99 on November 27, 2006, 09:13:27 AM
Well, income is 
But huge miss in revenues 

Well it certainly seems like the market is focusing on the revenue. But even though they missed the estimates of one analyst the result and the trend is still quite astounding:



XING has promised us year over year earnings growth of 35% and even with dilution they are over delivering.



We will see were the market takes XING short term. With the strongest quarter still to come they are destined to be trading at a PE in the low teens and that is a bargain for a company with this kind of growth and an IPO in the waiting.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 27, 2006, 10:07:43 AM
Bought XING at 14.60.  Stop: Below 13.88.  Risk: a loss of 4.9%

Sold XING at 13.94.  Loss: 4.5%

My 13.88 stop wasn't hit (the low is 13.90), but today is a complete reversal of Friday's nice white candle, on about 3 times the volume.

This "could be" a Double Bottom basis the 5-Minute chart at 13.90, but this close to the bottom of a Descending Triangle (posted over the weekend) on today's black candle, I don't want to be staring into a gap down in the morning. 

I decided to sell it.