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AMKR - Sector: Technology --- Industry: Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits

Started by setravis, February 09, 2006, 09:28:31 AM

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David Randolph

AMKR erased Friday's gain. That was it. Nothing changed, just a red candle on the chart (they're needed to make a sustainable trend), I'll keep on holding this extremely undervalued stock.


David Randolph

Volume is picking up steam again on AMKR, with 5.3 million shares traded today. It's on its way up to $30 !

hehe, I shouldn't say these things, because nobody knows if something happens and I'll be forced to sell with a loss. It will be easier to get out in that case if I didn't say anything about the long term.

On the other hand, if I don't say "attention, $30", I guess some of you guys will sell with a 15% or 20% profit and miss the whole ride. I need to transmit confidence when I feel it. And I'm very confident on AMKR, just buy and hold this one.

David Randolph

On a short term basis, AMKR is playing the same game CHINA is playing, but this time around the $10 level.

Longer term there's nothing new, AMKR will push higher.

David Randolph

There weren't any news out and the stock is still trading at the $9.78 - $10.47 range. I expect it to break this range on the upside and will continue holding.

David Randolph

Perhaps this news explains a bit of the "lack of credibility" the CEO talked about on the latest conference call: Former Amkor counsel charged with insider trading

But this is past now.

Nice washout on Friday, with the stock down 7.6% intraday. It closed down 3.5%, above the $9.78 short term support and with volume above average of 6.7 million shares.

Nothing technical will make me sell AMKR, only fundamental. Fundamentals are extremely attractive, I'll continue holding AMKR.

David Randolph

I certainly welcome today's rally on AMKR, especially after Friday's tough sell off. It sure looks like the stock had its shake out day and is ready to climb above the $10.47 short term resistance level soon.

There were some news out: Amkor Named 2006 Strategic Supplier by Agere Systems
Business Wire (Mon 8:00am)

Good news, but not relevant for the share price. Making 9.19% on AMKR, will let the profits run.

David Randolph

AMKR is still within the $9.78 - $10.50 range. Fundamentals say it's worth $30. It's just a matter of time for a bullish breakout of this consolidation phase.

I'll continue holding AMKR.

David Randolph

#52
I see less volume on AMKR and less people reading this thread. I guess most short term traders took profits and aren't interested anymore, as the stock already "made its move".

I believe they got 1 or 2 points out of 20. I want the twenty points, because I can both be right and sit tight.

AMKR is on the verge of breaking $10.5 on the upside. Enjoy the ride :)

David Randolph

The stock traded above the short term resistance level of $10.50, but it couldn't sustain those levels due to the general market weakness.

Longer term these fluctuations are meaningless and I'm in for the big pull. Overtime $10.50 will look like a cheap spot to be long, at least this is my expectation.

David Randolph

AMKR is still trading within the $9.78 - $10.50 consolidation range. Bears took it down more than 3% intraday, but it recovered all the losses for a positive close. I like that.

Anyway, it doesn't mean much. AMKR needs to rise 200% to be fairly valued by the market, in comparison with its peers, not counting on general market rises and possible multiple expansions going forward.

I'm still making just 11.7% on AMKR, but I expect this number to double before the end of the year ... because all those institutional investors holding the stock that I heard on the conference call have the tendency to push their stocks near the end of the year, to present an even rosier picture on their annual reports to investors.

David Randolph

AMKR showed relative weakness yesterday, going down 3.19% while the general market rose 0.23%. This would be a concern if I were a short term trader. But being a long term investor, I have to see it as normal, because no stock ever makes a big move without some periods of weakness along the way.

Technically the stock is still stuck on the $9.78 - $10.50 trading range. I expect it to break this range on the upside and I'll continue holding it.

David Randolph

QuoteTechnically the stock is still stuck on the $9.78 - $10.50 trading range. I expect it to break this range on the upside and I'll continue holding it.

Nope. It closed at $9.72. But perhaps $9.45 is an even more important short term support for AMKR.

I know I bought the stock after a big short term rise, so some consolidation was to be expected. But fundamentals say the stock is worth $30 (the company made EPS of $0.59 in the 9 months so far in 2006, analysts (and I) expect it to deliver EPS of $0.95 for the full year), and technicals are still supportive, so I'll continue holding AMKR.

David Randolph

AMKR is a different play than CHINA, completely different. CHINA was a long term growth story (but, as we've seen on my last update to the stock, I made two today, please notice that, growth isn't strong enough to justify the current valuation) and AMKR is a market inefficiency story.

Just looking at the competitor's table below you'll see that AMKR is undervalued:



Technically the stock hit the $9.45 horizontal support level, if that goes it may meet the 50 days SMA, but I'll continue holding AMKR whatever happens over the short term.


David Randolph

AMKR reacted well to the $9.45 support, rising 3.15% today. I'll continue holding it.

David Randolph

No news out and technically the stock is still within the $9.45 - $10.5 trading range. I'll continue holding AMKR.