3SOF

AMKR scheduled the date for its earnings release:

• Amkor Technology Announces Date of Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call
Business Wire (Tue 9:30am)

It's just on February the 7th, so there's plenty of time to think about those quarterly results.

In the meantime the stock should continue discounting what has been a remarkable fundamental turnaround within the company (Q3 was the best quarter ever, both in revenue and net income terms).

Analysts expect full year EPS of $0.95, so the PER is just 11. The Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits industry average is 30.

Technically the stock reached $10.50 again today. Everything is set for a bullish breakout. I'll continue holding AMKR.

QuoteTechnically the stock reached $10.50 again today. Everything is set for a bullish breakout.

Indeed, AMKR had the expected bullish breakout, closing above $10.5, as you can check on the chart below.

There's some controversy about Q4 numbers, because the average estimate for that quarter is EPS of $0.22, but the full year 2006 estimate is $0.95 (you can find these estimates here)

The problem is AMKR made just $0.59 for the nine months until September. So, if Q4 EPS is $0.22, the full year number will be $0.81, below the $0.95 full year estimate.

I still don't know why this happens (but I'll find out before earnings). I wasn't much worried about this issue because both numbers are great.

If AMKR makes $0.81 the PER is 14, so the stock is trading with a 52% discount (it needs to rise more than 100% to get to the industry earnings multiple average).

If it makes $0.95, the discount to the industry average would be even bigger, at 59%, so AMKR share price would need to increase by 145% to get to an average valuation.

100% or 145% on top of my current 14% profit are both fine by me

But I want to know why the discrepancy and what to expect for the quarters after Q4 2006.

For now my patience is being compensated, with the stock breaking out to new highs.

Things look strong for Q1 & Q2.
Fundamentals show positive improvements.
Support is around $9.86
Stock looks like it will test $13's and head higher by summer.
The balance sheet looks like its improving since they invested $200 million in new facility in 2005.
Semi stocks are improving and sector looks like its poised. INTC and MOT will rally by summer, even after they dipped last week.
I like the Chart on INTC..... Just had to mention it here....

Date of Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call
• Amkor Technology, Inc. Earnings Call scheduled for Wed, Feb 7
CCBN (Tue 10:10am) 

It looks like the wait was worth it, AMKR broke out of the $10.50 resistance level with volume of almost 12 million shares.

Now isn't the time to study or think anymore, it is time to sit tight and let the market reward the men who thought right and bought this stock.

It is starting to reward, but we want full pay. I'll continue holding AMKR.

Nice job david, applause

Volume surge....



Technicals
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
13.33%above 13-day MA
22.80%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 98 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $992.00 
P/E Ratio: 10.78 
PEG Ratio: 0.4 
Next Earnings: 02/07/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Strong Buy

Quote from: Terliso on January 11, 2007, 05:26:09 PM
Nice job david, applause

Thanks Terliso, let me give you an applause for giving me an applause

AMKR had a typical consolidation day after the very strong move it had yesterday. Volume declined by 72% and the stock closed down marginally.

All trends, long medium and short term continue to be bullish. Fundamental analysis show an undervalued stock.

I'll continue holding AMKR.

J.P. Morgan Raises Ests On Semi Consumables Stocks WFR, AMKR, ENTG, FORM, CCMP

Posted by Eric Savitz
J.P. Morgan's Christopher Blansett today raised earnings estimates on a bunch of companies that supply consumables to the semiconductor industry, includiing MEMC Electronics Materials (MEMC), Amkor (AMKR), Entergis (ENTG), FormFactor (FORM) and Cabot Microelectronics (CCMP). In a research note on the consumables companies, he reports that he sees a 13% increase in wafer starts in 2007, similar to the growth in 2006, driven mainly by memory chip demand.

Here are some of his comments on the individual companies.

MEMC: We expect MEMC to sequentially raise gross margins throughout the year in conjunction with its non-vertically integrated semi wafer competitors, Shin-Etsu and SUMCO, which are likely to pass on their increased polysilicon costs to their customers. We expect polysiliconcosts may increase as much as 20% [year-over-year] due to the continued supply/demand imbalance. He raised his 2007 estimate to $2.85 a share, from $2.70.

Amkor: Raising 2007 EPS to $1.34 from $1.19, "to reflect our improved 2007 outlook."

......

QuoteAmkor: Raising 2007 EPS to $1.34 from $1.19, "to reflect our improved 2007 outlook."

That's great la-onda, average estimates for 2007 were just $0.98, but rose to $1 because of this upgrade from JP Morgan.

If JP Morgan is right AMKR would then be trading with a forward earnings multiple of 8.35, and the Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits industry average is 30.

But as importantly, this takes out a bit of concern about a 2007 slowdown. After the latest conference call some analysts expressed concerns about 2007.

Hopefully this upgrade will give a boost to AMKR shares, the trend is certainly bullish, I'll continue holding the stock.

QuoteHopefully this upgrade will give a boost to AMKR shares, the trend is certainly bullish, I'll continue holding the stock.

It didn't, but I don't care. I've been holding AMKR through the ups and downs because it is massively undervalued when compared to its industry peers and I'm quite positive that valuation gap will be closed in the future. The stock has been going up, but of course it doesn't go up everyday, just in trend terms.

I'll continue holding AMKR.

Unfortunately AMKR is back below $10.50, due to a general market and especially semiconductor slump today, with the $SOX down 3.9%.

Expected EPS for 2007 is $1, which gives AMKR an earnings yield of 9.67%. This is attractive by all means.

The technical trend, given by the 50 and 200 days moving averages, remains bullish.

I'll continue holding AMKR.

The small doji on Friday's session might be indicative that the very short term declining trend on AMKR is coming to an end.

Earnings will be released on February 7th. Analysts expect $0.22 EPS and $683.75 M revenues for the 4th quarter. That will put full year EPS at $0.81 for fiscal 2006.

For fiscal 2007, analysts estimates are for $1.

So, the trailing earnings multiple is 12.7 and the forward earnings multiple is 10.3. The Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits industry average earnings multiple is 28.

My take is AMKR is this undervalued because its fundamental picture turned too fast and unexpectedly, so the share price now needs to catch up. It is doing that, sometimes with big gaps, but of course, it doesn't go up everyday or every week, as the new information gets assimilated in waves.

I'll keep holding AMKR.

AMKR update:  Friday's candle was a doji, tagging long term ascending support. Sugggests potential reversal from here.   Horizontal support below @ 10.00, 9.30.  Resistance @ 10.50.  Also keep an eye out as it looks like a potential rising wedge.  I think its a SELL on a move below $10.00

Quote from: David Randolph on January 20, 2007, 11:31:12 AM
My take is AMKR is this undervalued because its fundamental picture turned too fast and unexpectedly, so the share price now needs to catch up. It is doing that, sometimes with big gaps, but of course, it doesn't go up everyday or every week, as the new information gets assimilated in waves.

I can see it too David.
50sma in the weekly chart almost crossing the the 200sma & 200ema above, only fundamentally sound stocks have the capacity to do this in the weekly chart. AMKR  is the one.

We sure hope AMKR's future resembles HANS and NTRI

Technically we had another small day. Fundamentally there's nothing new to think about until the earnings release on February 7th.

I'll continue holding AMKR.