3SOF

Quote from: la-onda on December 26, 2006, 11:07:45 AM
hi aussie,
hope you have enjoyed your holidays
what´s your opinion about XING chart action?

Yep a good holiday thanks and hope you also enjoyed. When do you head for Singapore?

The only thing I'll say about XING chart is that last time it reversed to touch the 200ma zone in mid June 5 months later it was up 150% This time XING bouncde off the 200ema strongly (interesting how the news catalyst coincided within a day or 2 of the 200ema touch). So I fully expect sometime in Q1 / Q2 XING WILL trade at the $20 level. There will be plenty of volatility on the way I am sure

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 26, 2006, 11:41:36 AM

as expected Melf Elf 

Oliver,

Structurally, I would have liked a Right Shoulder here, rather than XING trying to ram its way through the Descending Triangle resistance, beginning at 13.88-13.90,

Oliver,

Tuesday ended on a Bearish Inverted Hangman, after XING's attempt to ram its way higher.

Quote
since "former support 'should' now act as resistance,  but I'm glad that it's rallying for you. 

The rally to 14.22, through TRIPLE resistance, ended in failure, as it "should" have. 

Resistance (from the top down):

#1. 14.25 - the top of the Descending Triangle (Red #1 and Red #3)

#2. 14.05 -  the 50DMA, which has rolled over to the downside

#3. 13.88-13.90 the lows of the Descending Triangle

XING became exhausted on the rally, and couldn't sustain any of those levels of resistance, closing weak at 13.79 on the Bearish Inverted Hangman, suggesting further downside.

Yesterday was a "Gap To Crap" opening, and a weaker attempt to ram its way through resistance.  The high only was 14.02 , just a hair above Resistance #2, the 50DMA, which has ticked down to 14.014. 

That was all XING had.  Weakness for the remainder of the session, and the day ended on a Bear Engulfer. 

Quote
The Descending Triangle target of 10.60 is ON HOLD as long as XING continues to trade above 13.88.

10.60 is back IN PLAY.

The Descending line (Red #1 and #3), which was at 14.25 on Tuesday, was validated as resistance on the rally to 14.22, so it "should" have some significance if XING can regroup, and take it out to the upside.

Good luck!

Being a newbie to this service, I have been watching the analysis on many stocks but found this one to have an interesting story. I know that 3SOF has gotten out but since it seems to have gone above the 200 ma, would one assume this is a good entry point to ride out for 4-5 months perhaps? I want to learn more about how you analyize these stocks so any information you provide is most helpful. Thanks!

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 28, 2006, 02:25:35 AM
10.60 is back IN PLAY.

The Descending line (Red #1 and #3), which was at 14.25 on Tuesday, was validated as resistance on the rally to 14.22, so it "should" have some significance if XING can regroup, and take it out to the upside.

The Descending line (top of the channel) was resistance again in the early going last week. XING had a DOUBLE re-test failure just below there, and ended  the session on a Bearish Doji Star Hangman.   Friday's session was a continuation to the downside, confirming the bearish implication of that candle in the short-term.

There's a possible Bull Flag (pattern in green) forming here, the low of which is 12.50, identical to the low of the December 22 gap day.  That's short-term support.


The late December/early January lows were: 13.05...13.06...13.07...13.05, with an intervening THIRD failed re-test of the bottom of the Descending Triangle, on January 3, that got only to 13.81.

13.05 - 13.07 was key short-term support.  We can see why, when that support broke on Friday, XING sank to gap support, at the intraday low of 12.50.

Resistance:

1. 13.05-13.07 now is short-term resistance.

2. 13.74  - The top of the Channel (the Ascending Triangle morphed to a channel).

3. 13.86  - The 50DMA, which has rolled over to the downside.

4. 13.88-13.90  - The bottom of the Descending Triangle

5. 14.22 - The December 26 "jam job" high.

Mucho gracias for the analysis melf elf.

Quote from: ygtrdr on January 08, 2007, 09:31:34 AM
Mucho gracias for the analysis melf elf.

Ygtrdr,

You're welcome.

If you look back at the Descending Triangle on daily chart, (the lows were 13.88...13.88....13.90), you can see that we've got a "fractal" (repeating pattern) of that larger Descending Triangle on this Hourly Chart since the "jam job" rally high of 14.22.

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 08, 2007, 06:30:22 AM
Resistance:

1. 13.05-13.07 now is short-term resistance.

The 13.05...13.06...13.07...13.05 lows on this chart are the bottom of that "fractal" Descending Triangle.  That was support, and we're there now, re-testing it.

So far, "former support is now resistance."  XING is struggling here, trying to make further upside progress.  It needs to close above this first level of resistance,  the bottom of the broken Descending Triangle, in order to turn at least short-term neutral.

[

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 08, 2007, 02:40:55 PM
If you look back at the Descending Triangle on daily chart, (the lows were 13.88...13.88....13.90 ), you can see that we've got a "fractal" (repeating pattern) of that larger Descending Triangle on this Hourly Chart since the "jam job" rally high of 14.22.

Resistance:

1. 13.05-13.07 now is short-term resistance.

The 13.05...13.06...13.07...13.05 lows on this chart are the bottom of that "fractal" Descending Triangle.  That was support, and we're there now, re-testing it.

So far, "former support is now resistance."  XING is struggling here, trying to make further upside progress.  It needs to close above this first level of resistance,  the bottom of the broken Descending Triangle, in order to turn at least short-term neutral.

The "fractal" behavior (repeating patterns) in XING is interesting.

Just as in the daily chart, when XING attempted a "jam job" rally back into the broken Descending Triangle on the December 26 rally to 14.22, in the hourly chart, XING also attempted a "jam job" rally above 13.05...13.06...13.07...13.05 resistance, on January 9.  The rally went back into the broken Descending Triangle, to 13.25, but failed badly, closing at 12.75.

Another "fractal" (repeating pattern) is this little Bull Flag/Falling Channel (in green).  See how it repeats the formation of the larger Falling Channel, from the 17.20 high, to the 11.54 low?

Interesting, huh?   

Another "fractal" (repeating pattern)...

XING keeps trying to put in TRIPLE and QUADRUPLE bottoms!

We had 13..88....13.88...13.90...lows in the Big Descending Triangle.  That failed.

We had 13.05...13.06...13.07...13.05 lows in the Little Descending Triangle.  That also failed.

Now we've got 12.50...12.50...12.52...12.52 lows since the December 22 gap up.

The fractal behavior suggests that this attempt at a QUADRUPLE bottom is going to fail, as well. but what if it doesn't fail, but instead, knocks out the top of the Little Bull Flag, then the top of the channel?

Hmm-mm...that would be a "sea change" in the fractal behavior, and it also would be an upside resolution of all of these "nested" fractals (meaning that they're all contained within the BIG red channel).

That would look quite nice.

Meanwhlie...

It sure looks like this QUADRUPLE bottom attempt here at 12.50 is going to fail, and that we're at least going to fill the gap, but that looks so obvious, I'm half-tempted to jump in right here, and stop it out on a break of 12.50, for a loss of less than 1% if I'm stopped out.

I have to think about that one.

MACD is at a back kiss of its signal line, and ready to bang off it and go higher on a rally.

I'll buy XING if I can have it for 12.58.  Stop: 12.48.  Risk: a loss of <1%.

If we break below 12.50, we likely are heading down to the gap, and possibly lower.  I've giving the stop a couple extra pennies, in case of a minor shakeout.

Bought XING at 12.67.  Stop: 12.48.  Risk: a loss of 1½%.

They would let me have it for 12.58, so I gave in and paid a little more 

Those demons better not take it down now, and bust my stop!   

Glad to have you on board melf. My stop is in the same area just below the bottom of the gap. Once again I appreciate your analysis. 

Quote from: ygtrdr on January 12, 2007, 11:03:59 AM
Glad to have you on board melf. My stop is in the same area just below the bottom of the gap. Once again I appreciate your analysis. 

ygtrdr,

We might get the obvious, a break of QUADRUPLE 12.50-12.52 support, especially since that's been the fractal behavior in the Big red channel, but isn't going to cost much in terms of risk to find out, unless XING gaps down on us while we're long it.

I can't see riding it down for a gap fill, or to the 11.54 low, if this breaks.  The 200DMA is at 12.65, too, so that sort of "begs" for a test, if 12.50-12.52 breaks.

On the positive side, the long-term trend is Bullish, even though it doesn't seem so. 

I would view it as even more bullish if the gap doesn't get filled, and if XING breaks out above  the Bull Flag, and above the Big red channel.

Bulls are wanting to buy XING on a gap fill.  Shorts aren't worried here.  Breakouts would have both groups in a little "shock and awe," and they'd have to scramble to buy.

At least, that's how I've been feeling, watching this thing, that it could gap up just above the channel on news, and I'd be forced into the stock at a price higher than I wanted to pay.

So, you can see why I'm willing to risk the 1½% loss here.

I hope that we get the "shock and awe" to the upside.   

The breakout numbers for the Flag and the Channel are at the bottom of this chart.

Good luck to us!   

Melf,

I like the trading idea, and the risk profile.  I'm jumping in with you on this one, just got filled at 12.69, lets hope it starts xinging!!!

Quote from: ScottishTrader on January 12, 2007, 11:54:42 AM
Melf,

I like the trading idea, and the risk profile.  I'm jumping in with you on this one, just got filled at 12.69, lets hope it starts xinging!!!

Scotsman,

That 12.72 close wasn't very good xinging, but we'll take it.  At least we weren't stopped out, which we have to expect with that gap yawning below.

But, it's a nice, low-risk, great risk:reward trade, if we don't gap down. 

XING got a pop just now:

Dutton Associates Announces Investment Opinion: Qiao Xing Universal Telephone Raised To Strong Buy Rating In Update Coverage By Dutton Associates
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070116/20070116006071.html?.v=1

They have set a price target of $20.24, which is fine by me 
You can read the research report here, I haven't yet, but plan to later today:

http://www.jmdutton.com/research/XING/index.html