3SOF

Great pick-up David (applause).  I have been watching XING for months now.  I took my first position yesterday at just under $15.26.

I have a feeling that XING is in the beginning of a long run up.  The company appears to be taking transparency seriously, which could bring in some larger investors.  As stated in a January 16, 2007, statement from Dutton:

"Towards the end of December 2006, the Company started to release detailed quarterly financial statements, which will help improve corporate transparency and enable institutional investors to better assess the Company's attractive prospects."

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070116/20070116006071.html?.v=1

Dutton predicts $2.18 '06 EPS and $2.53 '07 EPS.  However, Duttons price targe is only $20.24.  That is only a 9.28 PE ratio for '06.  Any ideas why Dutton's target is so low?  Industry average PE ratio is 27.76.  Target for XING, based on '06 EPS, should be $60.51; based on '07 EPS, should be $70.23.  The industry average PE ratio is low considering that XING's 3 year EPS growth is 130.77% and industry average is 8.02%.

More positives:
1) Float is only 15,900,000 shares.
2) 3 month net institutional ownership up 2,853,000 shares. 

Again, great pick.

the low target price with regard to the astounding estimated EPS by Dutton's also confuses me.. Short term their report will certainly boost the share price but it would be nice to see an upgrade once XING reaches $20. I think that the main problem holding XING back is low transparency and highly irregular fillings that would hopefully now improve.
On a more personal note: Despite all the ups and downs I love XING. I have been accumulating since it was for $7-$10 and I only took some profits at $16.5. I was accumulating again for the last 6 weeks when XING went bellow $12.8 and recent run is just a great reward sending my portfolio up to the sky 

Quote from: ScottishTrader on January 20, 2007, 12:25:45 PM
Hey Melf,

So whats your take on our XINGer then?  Friday's candle looked a bit toppy to me, and I was disappointed that it broke down after such a strong start to the day.

Scotsman,

It was up 23.7% in just 3 days, so we got some profit-taking.  That's fine.

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but am thinking about taking some profits here, just so I've got some in the bank.

Two targets got MADE, the last at 14.89 just below here.  You're never going to get hurt "taking some profits when targets get MADE."  While I expect XING to go higher on that nice DOUBLE breakout, one never knows, especially in a volatile stock like this one.

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I put the channel breakout target at about 16.11 (i.e. measured move off the channel breakout - channel width (14.22 - 11.54 = 2.68) => 13.43 + 2.68 = 16.11) which is what I'm aiming for here, and I think it is doable in the short term, but we may get some consolidation first.

That's a more conservative measurement than mine (I used the top of the channel, not the width of the channel), but your target is fine, and a valid way to measure. 

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Still, XING has been way more explosive than I anticipated, and the weekly chart also suggests it wants to go up more, and break new highs.

On this particular DOUBLE breakout, I rather expected the "shock and awe" of an explosive rally.  The fractal pattern and fractal behavior history in the channel always had bearish outcomes, so the "sea change" to a bullish outcome caught players off guard.

The weekly semi-log chart also gives us a nice idea of the long term trend, and XING has clearly been traversing this long term upward channel after that double bottom on 2005.

Makes me think that if we were willing to hold on for a few months, we could see it reach Dutton's target.  But man, I have trouble holding on to a stock for more than a few weeks, so we'll just have to see on this one.

Does make me think we will see a bit of resistance in the low $15 area though, coming off that band of trading in October and November.  Also confirms 13.88 as the key support line.  Would be a good area to add shares if we get a pullback.

Quote from: ScottishTrader on January 20, 2007, 05:01:10 PM
The weekly semi-log chart also gives us a nice idea of the long term trend, and XING has clearly been traversing this long term upward channel after that double bottom on 2005.

Scotsman,

Thanks for posting long-term trend.  It was The #1 Reason that I was trying to find my way back into XING after I sold it for a loss , at 13.94, on November 27, the day before the BIG Descending Triangle broke down.

The short-term trend turned very bearish on that breakdown (the finally tally was a loss of 32.9% on the drop from 17.20 to 11.54), but given the fact that the larger trend was so bullish, I knew that I wanted it on just about any excuse that XiNG gave me to buy it back at a better price.

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 12, 2007, 07:05:25 AM
The fractal behavior suggests that this attempt at a QUADRUPLE bottom is going to fail, as well. but what if it doesn't fail, but instead, knocks out the top of the Little Bull Flag, then the top of the channel?

Remember how we found that to be a pretty good excuse to risk a loss of 1½% on that "possibility?"  We knew that the long-term trend was in our favor, and that...

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Hmm-mm...that would be a "sea change" in the fractal behavior, and it also would be an upside resolution of all of these "nested" fractals (meaning that they're all contained within the BIG red channel).

That would look quite nice.

Thus far, we've been rewarded for buying a stock that is in a long-term bullish trend, after a big pullback in what ultimately became a BIG down-sloping channel (Bullish Continuation pattern) with a bunch of nested fractals (in terms of both patterns, and behavior).

Isn't that the way we're 'sposed to play the market?

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Makes me think that if we were willing to hold on for a few months, we could see it reach Dutton's target. 

We have every reason to think that, because on the print of 13.41 on January 16, we finally had a "perfect marriage" of the technicals and the fundamentals.

DOUBLE breakout in a stock with good fundamentals...SHOCK AND AWE to the upside!

We had another "perfect marriage" of the technicals and the fundamentals in XING on a print of 11.91 on September 13, which we'll discuss in a minute.

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But man, I have trouble holding on to a stock for more than a few weeks, so we'll just have to see on this one.

I can see that I'm going to have to wrestle you to the ground, to protect you from your Impatient Demon.

 

Believe me, I completely understand your "trader mentality," because I deal with that same demon, and with many other demons, as we each do.

On Friday, when XING was booking it to the upside into the 15.50s, I was thinking, "This probably is a short-term Blowoff Top.  It's up over 20% in three days, I should grab the money, and get back in on a pullback."

Sometimes I do that, and it works out fine.  But, other times, and I find this especially in stocks that have terrific breakouts like XING had, they won't let me back in.  The pullbacks are too shallow.

Now that we can see that XING did pull back, and closed on a Bearish Inverted Hangman (only short-term bearish, and it needs downside confirmation), I probably would have been fine selling 15.50, and getting back in lower. 

But, how much lower?  I would look at an intraday chart, and try to find a pattern target, etc., but I decided to leave this XING trade alone.  I've already taken 25% off the table right ahead of the 13.41 breakout, to defend against a failure there, and as we now know, it was anything but a failure! 

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Does make me think we will see a bit of resistance in the low $15 area though, coming off that band of trading in October and November.  Also confirms 13.88 as the key support line.  Would be a good area to add shares if we get a pullback.

Yes, we sure would like to see 13.88 be support if we get that kind of pullback, but let's look at the bigger picture.

We'll start at Blue #1, to the left of the chart, which was a top, and which also was the beginning of a Symmetrical Triangle (blue) that had a nested Bullish Inverse H&S, and also a nested Bullish Falling Wedge (purple).

Nested means that two other bullish patterns were "contained within" the larger pattern (the blue Symmetrical triangle).

Those "nested" patterns tend to have Blockbuster power when the stock breaks out, I would suspect because the pattern has been "morphing" (changing) for so long, and confusing everyone, that when we finally recognize what's going on, that a print of 11.91 is a TRIPLE pattern breakout...

Oh-h-h, buddy! 

If we are on The Anxious Bench about the trade (nervous), we can worry that on the second day, XING pulled back.  The after two nice white candles, we can worry about the three black candles.  Then we can worry about the sideways trading (Rectangle in green)...

But, if we leave the trade alone, after a TRIPLE breakout, and let it do its thing, the 15.25 and 15.65 targets get MADE with no problem, and XiNG went on to 17.20 for some "extra."

The TRIPLE nested Bullish Symmetrical Triangle took just under 3 months to form; the targets took just under one month to get MADE, so about one-third of the time, which is the type of thing we see on that kind of Blockbuster breakout.

We just had a Blockbuster breakout on January 16, on the print of 13.41.  Do we see any reason to sit on The Anxious Bench about the trade?

Yes, something "could" come out on the fundamentals, and we "could" get blind-sided by a huge gap down, but given how bullish the chart is, does that seem likely?

Bottom line, Scotsman: You know that I like to take at least "some" profits when targets get MADE to lock in a winner, and to defend against any curve balls being thrown at me, so you might want to go ahead and do that here, but I'd suggest trying to give yourself a chance to have a bigger gain in XING.

While it's hard to wait (I also have the Impatient Demon    ), consider the fact that you could take the profit here in XING, and then your Over-trading Demon will grab it from you and go crazy with stocks that are much less attractive than this DOUBLE breakout in XING.

 

Regardless of how you play it, barring a total disaster, you're going to have a gain from your very nice 12.69 entry into XING. 

Nice "problem" to have, huh?! 

So true you wise old elf!!!!

Gotta wrestle that impatient demon to the ground!!  Thing is, I know  we just caught the bottom of a major channel breakout, I know the we have a company here that has a fundamentally changing picture, and the Dutton report clearly emphasised that.  I know that in 3 months XING will be significantly higher than it is today.  I have to just sit on my hands and let it do its thing.

After all, the hardest thing is in the waiting, and letting the pattern play out.  But don't worry, if I take some profits here, it will be max 1/3 of my position.  The rest I will let run with a conservative stop ( I think somewhere below that 13.88 level).

I know I am a certified over trader, and I have to work on this, so thanks for the reminder and the words of encouragement.

Cheers
ST

P.S. Didn't mean to call you "old".  After all we are all as young as we feel!!

P.P.S.  Can I suggest you have a wee look at FRPT?  I know its already run 3000% but I think it has another 50% move or so in the works.  Big things cookin. 

David

May be it's "falling in love" but...........
I'm 100% invested in XING..................... 

What do you say? 

Call 1-800- ENRON Voova

Ask those folks about being 100% in one stock.  Downside risk outweighs upside gain, even if you get one right.  imho.

I've read the full Dutton report on XING, which you can find here:
http://www.jmdutton.com/research/XING/index.html

Quite interesting, and apparently reliable information. I think they have such a "low" price target because they wouldn't look responsible if they were to say "this stock will rise 200 or 300%". No respectable research firm ever does that, even if it thinks it will happen.

I guess the problem with XING has always been low institutional ownership because the company's reporting practices were extremely weak (it used to be just a press release without a detailed net income and balance sheet statement - that recently changed).

And institutions are responding, as buddjas1 says (where did you get that information about institutional ownership buddjas1? Thanks!)

XING's valuation seems extremely attractive and there are positive catalysts that should move it higher, like the launch of 3G in China, expected before the 2008 Olympics (this factor isn't considered in Dutton's 2007 EPS estimate, to be "conservative", because they don't know if it will impact 2007 results or just 2008).

Quote from: voova99 on January 21, 2007, 09:42:08 AM
David

May be it's "falling in love" but...........
I'm 100% invested in XING..................... 

What do you say? 

Well, that's always very risky, but I suggest you send a private message to AussieTrader, because he once wrote a story about a guy that turned a few thousand dollars into millions, always owning just 1 and 1 only stock.

It also depends on your initial capital size. If you have just $5,000, what the hell, you can't diversify enough without incurring significant trading costs, so why not buy it all in just 1 or 2 stocks that you think have significant upside and not much risk? But if you have $50,000 to invest and put it all in XING, I would say you're taking too high and unnecessary risks.

I'll continue holding XING.

Barron's included Dutton's 2007 estimates in their page:
http://online.barrons.com/public/resources/documents/barrons_nnm_Q.htm

Gee I come in this morning and my e-mail tells me 3 SOF bought XING on Friday.

I was on 3SOF on/off onFriday and checked posts this weekend.  I can't read every post.  How did I miss this buy?  The only place I find that it was announced was on the XING thread.  What did I miss?

Help me out here.   Is there some way that 3SOF can have an alert system for new buys/sells?

I received an email on Friday announcing buying of XING, just like every day.

I rec'd two e-mails on Fri, one telling us to sell NVLS titled "The instruction for NVLS ..., the other was the daily update titled "Long Term + Short Term + Updates", nothing in it about XING.

Quote from: JKN on January 22, 2007, 10:17:41 AM
I rec'd two e-mails on Fri, one telling us to sell NVLS titled "The instruction for NVLS ..., the other was the daily update titled "Long Term + Short Term + Updates", nothing in it about XING.

I sent an e-mail titled "XING to the Main", at about 8:30 ET on Friday. Let me inform Ramburg of this issue, perhaps your e-mail refuses some 3 SOF mails, I don't know what happened.

Sorry for this

Thanks David...Ramsburg sent me a PM and I just responded.  I'm not sure what happened either.  Its always possible that I accidently deleted it but I'm not in the habit of doing that with 3SOF msgs.

Thanks...

Kent