3SOF

Blue Chips Stage Rally.......

1/23/2007


Gains in energy, mining and housing stocks helped the market overcome a slow start and rally to a higher close Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 56.64 points, or 0.45%, to 12,533.80, and the S&P 500 tacked on 5.04 points, or 0.35%, at 1427.99. The NASDAQ Composite eked out a gain of 0.34 points, or 0.01%, at 2431.41.

Roughly 3.03 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, where advancers beat decliners by a 2-to-1 margin. Volume on the NASDAQ topped 2.04 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 3 to 2.

"The market is back in a trading range, or perhaps it never left," said Ken Tower, chief market strategist with CyberTrader. "The S&P [has been] buoyed no doubt by this week's strength in energy shares. The longer-term rally remains intact."

Supporting the advance was a 4.7% climb in the Amex Gold Bugs index, a 2.9% rise in the Philadelphia Oil Service Sector index and a 2.4% gain in the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Housing Sector index.

Commodities prices surged. The newly benchmarked March crude oil futures contract was up $2.46 at $55.04 a barrel. Natural gas gained 28 cents to $7.60 per million British thermal units.

Gold jumped $11.80 to close at $645.90 an ounce, and silver was up 26 cents at $13.26 an ounce.

Meanwhile, Wall Street had plenty of corporate earnings to digest, including several from Dow components.

Among them, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:NYSE) posted fourth-quarter net income of $2.17 billion, or 74 cents a share, up more than 13% from the year-earlier quarter. Before items, the health care giant earned 81 cents a share, beating the Thomson First Call average estimate. J&J slipped 68 cents, or 1%, to $66.50.

Elsewhere, United Technologies (UTX:NYSE) exceeded fourth-quarter estimates and reaffirmed its outlook for this year, while fellow industrial DuPont (DD:NYSE) met estimates. United Tech shares added 3.2%, while DuPont closed down 0.9%.

In the banking sector, Wachovia (WB:NYSE) saw fourth-quarter earnings rise 34% from a year ago, beating Wall Street estimates. Bank of America (BAC:NYSE) posted fourth-quarter net income that jumped 47% and was also ahead of the Thomson First Call consensus.

Wachovia tacked on 0.7% to $56.65, and Bank of America dipped 0.6% to finish at $53.32.

As for those that disappointed, Alcatel-Lucent (ALU:NYSE) warned that it will miss analysts'' fourth-quarter sales estimates by a significant margin. The company expects to have revenue of around $5.02 billion, falling short of the consensus target by about $300 million. Alcatel tumbled 7.3% to $13.15.

Homebuilder D.R. Horton (DHI:NYSE) said fiscal first-quarter earnings dropped to $109.7 million, or 35 cents a share, down 65% from a year ago. Still, results trumped the average estimate by 2 cents. Shares rose $1.24, or 4.6%, to close at $28.37.

Xerox (XRX:NYSE) said fourth-quarter income fell 24% from the year-ago quarter to $214 million. Excluding restructuring-related charges, the company earned 38 cents a share, beating estimates by a penny. Still, Xerox was off 17 cents, or 1%, at $16.53.

"The reports from the technology sector have been generally upbeat; however, comments regarding the future are much darker, taking many of the stocks lower," said Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates. "However, their impact has not been felt marketwide as would an employment report or a wider-than-normal inflation release. While the bulls and bears have been battling to gain the upper hand, the markets have frustrated both."

The economic docket was light for a second straight session. In the Day's only release, the Conference Board said that leading economic indicators rose 0.3% in December, above economists'' expectations of a 0.2% rise. However, October's number was revised down by 0.2% and November by 0.1%.

Treasuries were losing ground. The 10-year note was off 10/32 in price to yield 4.80%, and the 30-year bond was down 23/32, yielding 4.90%.

Overseas, European shares were mixed. The London FTSE 100 was higher by 0.2% at 6227, while the Frankfurt Xetra DAX was falling 0.1% to 6678. Asia's stocks eased overnight. Tokyo's Nikkei lost 0.1% at 17,408, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was off 0.01% to 20,769.

Very nteresting article, "Trouble with the Transports"

http://biz.yahoo.com/opt/070123/opt_16551.html?.v=1

DXD (DOW 30 ultra short) looks good chart shows a bottom and a reversal it seems.

DOW got slammed yesterday and it looks like the trend to the downside may continue today. CAT may drag the DOW down with it if the earnings come in below expectations. Also the durable good numbers and new home sales may add to the downside if the market does not like what it sees.

Stocks End Rocky Week Mixed.......


1/26/2007



Wall Street closed mixed Friday as traders waded through the latest data on the economy, another string of corporate earnings and word that a blockbuster merger could be in the works in the financial sector.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded from its session lows and finished down 15.54 points, or 0.12%, at 12,487.02. Earlier, the Dow fell by as many as 70 points. The S&P 500 was off 1.72 points, or 0.12%, at 1422.18.

The Dow faced pressure from losses of 1% or more in Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE) , AT&T (T:NYSE) , Disney (DIS:NYSE) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM:NYSE) .

On the plus side, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite overcame early weakness and added 1.25 points, or 0.05%, to 2435.49, benefiting from a 3.9% rise in KLA-Tencor (KLAC:Nasdaq) .

All told, the Dow was lower for the week by 78 points. The Nasdaq lost 16 points, and the S&P 500 was off by 8 points. In percentage terms, all three dropped about 0.6%.

Roughly 2.72 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, and volume on the Nasdaq reached nearly 2.06 billion shares. Winners outpaced losers 3 to 2.

After struggling for much of the day because of concerns about the Federal Reserves stance on rates, stocks were energized late by speculation that Bank of America (BAC:NYSE) and Countrywide Financial (CFC:NYSE) are talking about joining forces.

The Financial Times reported that the discussions were at an early point but could ultimately lead to BofA taking over Countrywide. Shares of Countrywide rose 4.2% to close at $42. BofA was off 0.7% at $52.04.

"The market performed admirably today, given the technical damage the indexes face," said Barry Hyman, equity market strategist with EKN Financial. "The perception of higher interest rates is spooking investors. It's not surprising to see this type of cautious trading ahead of a Fed meeting. If we don't reestablish the uptrend, we could be in trouble next week."

Central bank policymakers meet Tuesday and Wednesday, but no change in the target fed funds rate is expected.

The market was hit early by word that new homes were sold at a faster-than-expected annual pace in December, ending the year at 1.120 million. Analysts were expecting around 1.050 million.

Last month's reading was 4.8% above November's revised rate of 1.069 million, but 11% below the December 2005 pace of 1.259 million, the Census Bureau said.

The fact that stocks lost ground on the strong report -- relative to estimates -- underscores the difficult time investors are having with the current market. On Thursday, a somewhat soft reading on existing-home sales contributed to a selloff in the major averages.

However, home sales weren't the only data point traders had to consider. Before the session began, the government said durable-goods orders rose 3.1% in December, lower than expectations of a 3.5% increase. Excluding transportation, orders were up 2.3%. November's headline number was revised upward to 2.2% from 1.6%.

Yields on Treasuries rose. The 10-year note fell 1/32 in price to yield 4.88%, and the 30-year bond lost 4/32 to yield 4.98%. The dollar was mixed against the world's other major currencies.

"Rising rates are an expression of economic strength, or increasing demand for funds," explained Ken Tower, chief market strategist with CyberTrader. "That's bullish for corporate profits, but counter to the Fed's ''soft landing'' scenario."

Earnings were again in the spotlight as the week ended. Following Thursday's close, tech giant and Dow component Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) beat analysts'' estimates for earnings and revenue.

The software maker said it earned 26 cents a share on sales of $12.54 billion for the fiscal second quarter, topping forecasts of 23 cents and $12.08 billion. Shares of Microsoft added 15 cents, or 0.5%, to finish at $30.60.

Before the new session got started, fellow Dow component Caterpillar (CAT:NYSE) posted fourth-quarter net income of $882 million, or $1.32 a share, higher by 4% from a year ago. Results missed the Thomson First Call average estimate by 2 cents.

However, Caterpillar said it expects full-year revenue for 2007 between $41.5 billion and $43.6 billion, higher than analysts'' forecasts. Shares finished higher on the news, rising $1.46, or 2.5%, to $61.09.

Among ratings moves, Citigroup downgraded Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) to hold from buy, citing the difficult balance between revenue growth and operating margin expansion. However, Cisco climbed 13 cents, or 0.5%, to $26.35.

Commodities were mixed. Crude oil futures climbed $1.19 to close at $55.42 a barrel, and natural gas gained 27 cents to $7.17 per million British thermal units. Gold was lower by $3.40 at $644.70 an ounce, and silver was off by 11 cents at $13.37 an ounce.

Equities were weaker overseas. London's FTSE was easing 0.7% to 6228, and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX was down 0.4% at 6690. Tokyo's Nikkei dipped 0.2% at 17,422, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 1.9% to 20,281.



What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading ?    

Bullish
Bearish
Neutral




     

Wall Street Ends With Gains.......

1/30/2007


Stocks ticked higher Tuesday, but investors weren't inclined to make big bets with the start of a two-day Federal Reserve meeting, more blue-chip earnings and surging oil prices to consider.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 32.53 points, or 0.26%, to 12,523.31, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 7.55 points, or 0.31%, at 2448.64. The S&P 500 tacked on 8.20 points, or 0.58%, at 1428.82.

The Dow benefited from gains of 1.8% in Hewlett-Packard (HPQ:NYSE) and Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) . The Nasdaq got help from Activision (ATVI:Nasdaq) and Juniper Networks (JNPR:Nasdaq) , which each advanced 2.8%.

Roughly 2.73 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Advancers beat decliners by a 12-to-5 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached nearly 1.84 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 3 to 2.

Key action was taking place in Washington, D.C., where the Fed gathered for the first day of a policy meeting. The central bank will meet again Wednesday and release its policy statement at 2:15 p.m. EST.

No change is expected in the target fed funds rate for the fifth straight time. Even so, the Fed's comments on the economy will factor heavily in traders'' plans, at least for the near future.

James Park, managing director with Rodman & Renshaw, that the conundrum investors face in evaluating the Fed's moves is finding the balance of earnings expansion weighed against economic growth.

"The environment has been fairly encouraging," said Park. "Technology earnings shook a lot of confidence out of investors, but when you're seeing steady economic data investors should feel somewhat confident following the Fed announcement tomorrow."

Many are hoping to see a rate cut at some point this year, but the Fed has been noncommittal, saying it will rely on incoming data to determine whether the economy is slowing enough to drop short-term rates.

"Earnings reports should be supporting a bullish sentiment, but the question is whether the Fed gives us the same rhetoric or not," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Avalon Partners. "With a Fed meeting and a slew of economic data the rest of the week, we'll be cautious. Fears of inflation will be the stumbling block."

On the commodities front, oil prices jumped after a Saudi oil official said his country is committed to implementing production cuts in an effort to prop up crude. Futures added $2.96 to end at $56.97 a barrel. On Monday, crude slid $1.41 to $54.01.

Natural gas also surged, finishing up 80 cents to $7.74 per million British thermal units. Gold was higher by $1 to close at $644.20 an ounce, and silver tacked on 12 cents at $13.37 an ounce.

Turning to earnings, three components of the Dow were reporting their quarterly results. At 3M (MMM:) , earnings missed analysts'' fourth-quarter estimates, and its projections were on the light side. Procter & Gamble (PG:) edged past quarterly estimates and offered in-line guidance. 3M shed $4.26, or 5.4%, to $74.70. P&G lost 29 cents, or 0.5%, to $64.59.

Meanwhile, drugmaker Merck (MRK:) posted a fourth-quarter profit of $473.9 million, or 22 cents a share, down 58% from a year ago. Excluding items, the company earned 50 cents a share, matching estimates. Quarterly revenue of $6.04 billion exceeded expectations.

At the same time, Merck reaffirmed its full-year 2007 guidance, but analysts'' estimates have climbed since last month when the company offered the same forecast. Merck is anticipating a profit of $2.51 to $2.59 a share for 2007, whereas Wall Street's consensus is now $2.61. Shares were off 60 cents, or 1.3%, finishing at $44.91.

In other earnings, UPS (UPS:) reported fourth-quarter income of $1.13 billion, or $1.04 a share, up 7.5% from the year-ago quarter. Results matched expectations. However, full-year guidance fell short of analysts'' forecasts, and UPS sank 95 cents, or 1.3%, to $72.70.

JetBlue (JBLU:) said it swung to a fourth-quarter profit of $17 million, or 10 cents a share, compared with a year-ago loss of $42 million, or 25 cents a share. Excluding items, the airline earned 9 cents a share, falling short of the Thomson First Call consensus of 11 cents a share. JetBlue dropped 65 cents, or 4.5% to $13.85.

Among analyst moves, JPMorgan upgraded Starbucks (SBUX:) to overweight from neutral, and Goldman Sachs boosted its rating for RadioShack (RSH:NYSE) to buy from neutral.

Starbucks, which reports earnings Wednesday, finished unchanged at $34.56. RadioShack rose $1.04, or 5%, to $21.86.

Elsewhere, UBS raised its stock price target for retail giant Target (TGT:) to $78 from $70, and Banc of America Securities increased its price target for Time Warner (TWX:) to $25 from $24 and Disney (DIS:) to $34 from $32.

Target gained 0.6% to $60.44. Time Warner climbed 1.2% to $22.04. Disney ended up 1% to $35.04.

In the Day's only economic release, the Conference Board said that consumer confidence rose to 110.3 in January, the highest reading in nearly five years. The data came in slightly higher than December's revised reading of 110.0, and was above analysts'' estimates for 109.5.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, said the rise wasn't a surprise.

"The increase in expectations was largely a lagged response to the plunge in gasoline prices in the fall," he said.

However, Shepherdson warned that gas prices "have now stopped falling so there will likely be no further up shift in expectations."

Treasuries were rising following the report. The benchmark 10-year note was up 4/32 to yield 4.88%, and the 30-year bond was higher by 8/32, yielding 4.98%.

Equities were mostly stronger overseas. Frankfurt's Xetra DAX was tacking on 0.9% at 6788, while London's FTSE was unchanged at 6242. Tokyo's Nikkei rose 0.1% overnight to 17,490, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.1% to 20,460.

Going to have a neutral stance on the markets atm. Shorts are not panning out moving down very little or rebounding back up. Most the shorts I have covered for a 2% profit or so. I dont think we are going to see some real bearish action till late spring early summer. If the housing market doesnt pick up this spring and summer I suspect we will see the backlash on the markets and DOW.

I am not worried about the DOW too much, but the $COMPX chart looks a bit toppy to me:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&st=2002-01-29&id=p69663617056&a=96399436&listNum=1

 NYSE.......Chart...Bullish
Just look at this bullish chart.
99.99% chance the Market will be up tomorrow. Market has made its move and it's up.
Amazing, Don't know how but you can't fight the Power. Just try to make money off it.

Cisco Energizes Tech Sector.......

2/7/2007


Tech stocks were roused from their recent languor Wednesday, getting a boost from gains in networking giant Cisco (CSCO:) .

Not as fortunate were blue chips. After touching an intraday record high of 12,700.28, the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated and ended up 0.56 point at 12,666.87. The index was pressured by 2.1% loss in Alcoa (AA:) .

The S&P 500 added 2.02 points, or 0.14%, to 1450.02, but the big winner of the day was the Nasdaq Composite, ahead by 19.01 points, or 0.77%, to 2490.50.

Tech shares finally found a little buying interest thanks to a 3% increase in Cisco. The company said after the prior close that its sales for the third quarter would be better than previously thought. Cisco added 81 cents to $28.09.

Roughly 2.65 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Advancers beat decliners by a 9-to-7 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq topped 2.23 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 3 to 2.

For the most part, this week has been lackluster. On Tuesday, the Dow was up 4.57 points at 12,666.31, and the S&P rose 1.01 points. The Nasdaq added 0.89 point to 2471.49.

The market was also bogged down Monday, when the Dow gained just 8.25 points and the Nasdaq slipped 5.28 points.

"The very narrow trading ranges in the Dow [and] S&P ... show that supply and demand are in balance," said Ken Tower, chief market strategist with CyberTrader "The afternoon rallies show that the bears can''t hold prices down. This suggests an upside resolution to the current trading range."

Meanwhile, traders shrugged off comments from Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Charles Plosser, who said he is "not convinced that underlying inflation is on a downward trend."

"Inflation stopped accelerating in the last few months, but whether it will continue to recede in the coming year is not yet clear," said Plosser. "Additional monetary policy action may be needed to keep us moving along the path to price stability. We may simply be seeing the temporary effect of recent declines in the price of oil, which seems just as likely to rise as to fall in the future."

On the economic front, the Labor Department said that fourth-quarter productivity rose at an annualized rate of 3%, a faster clip than expected. Unit labor costs rose at a 1.7% rate, below the consensus 2.1%. Third-quarter unit labor costs were revised upward to 3.2%.

"This solid performance indicates the growth potential of the U.S. economy remains formidable and greater than economists and policymakers have been inclined to acknowledge," said Peter Morici, professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission. "Profits and stock prices should continue to surge higher."

Treasuries were on the rise. The 10-year note was up 6/32 in price, yielding 4.75%, and the 30-year bond was tacking on 8/32 to yield 4.85%. The dollar rose against the yen and euro but fell against the British pound.

Commodities retreated following a strong start. Crude oil futures dropped $1.17 to close at $57.71 a barrel, while natural gas tacked on 9 cents to $7.70 per million British thermal units. Gold eased by $1.40 to $657.30 an ounce.

The latest inventory report from the Energy Department contributed to weakness in energy prices. Crude inventories decreased by 400,000 barrels last week, distillate supplies fell by 3.7 million barrels, while gasoline stocks climbed by 2.6 million barrels.

In other earnings news, News Corp. (NWS:) posted fiscal second-quarter earnings that eased from a year ago but still came in higher than estimates. Shares added 55 cents, or 2.3%, to close at $24.70.

DirecTV (DTV:) , in which News Corp. owns a big stake, said fourth-quarter earnings rose to $356 million, or 29 cents a share, nearly tripling from the year-ago results. Analysts expected it to earn 30 cents a share. DirecTV jumped $1.38, or 5.8%, to $25.35.

Sara Lee (SLE:) swung to a fiscal second-quarter loss of $62 million, or 8 cents a share, compared with a profit of $438 million, or 57 cents, a year ago. One-time charges weighed down Sara Lee by 29 cents a share, making adjusted profits about 21 cents. Wall Street was expecting earnings of 16 cents a share. Still, shares were off 37 cents, or 2.1%, to finish at $17.

Stocks gained in Europe, where London''s FTSE 100 was higher by 0.4% to 6369 and Frankfurt''s Xetra DAX was up 0.6% at 6915. As for Asia, Tokyo''s Nikkei 225 fell 0.7% to 17,292, and Hong Kong''s Hang Seng was up 0.1% to 20,680.

Rough Day for Tech Sector.......

2/9/2007


Stocks had a strong start Friday but the gains wouldn''t hold, and the market closed lower amid a selloff in the tech and financial sectors.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 56.80 points, or 0.45%, at 12,580.83, having been up by as many as 37 points earlier. The blue-chip index was pressured by a 2.6% decline in Disney (DIS:NYSE) . Overall, 26 of the Dow''s 30 components finished with losses.

The S&P 500 was lower by 10.25 points, or 0.71%, at 1438.06. The Nasdaq Composite plunged 28.85 points, or 1.16%, to 2459.82.

Seeing losses of 3% or more were Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq) , SanDisk (SNDK:Nasdaq) and XM Satellite Radio (XMSR:Nasdaq) .

All told, the Dow finished a lackluster week lower by 72 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq slumped 16 points, or 0.6%, and the S&P 500 fell 10 points, or 0.7%.

Roughly 2.76 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Decliners beat advancers by a 12-to-5 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached nearly 2.21 billion shares, with losers outpacing winners 2 to 1.

By sector, financials suffered some of the worst losses for the day. The S&P 500 Financial Sector Index lost 1%, and the Nasdaq Financial 100 sank 1%. Other losers included the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index, down 1.4%, and the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index, off 1.5%.

The Nasdaq started selling off sharply in midsession, following news reports of comments by Micron (MU:NYSE) about price declines at its annual briefing with financial analysts.

Micron projected that the average price of NAND flash memory -- used in consumer electronics gadgets like MP3 players and cell phones -- would plummet 30% to 40% sequentially in the current quarter, according to a Reuters report. And the company doesn''t see any major demand drivers on the horizon to soak up all the supply of flash chips flooding the market.

Micron shares closed down 2.6% to $12.56.

"Investors should also be aware that the stock market is overdue for a short-term correction," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist with Spencer Clarke. "However, barring a major unforeseen event that impacts the U.S. or global economy, 2007 is likely to end up with another year of moderate stock market gains."

The market also had to absorb midafternoon comments from Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher, who said the current direction of inflation was pleasing, but that he wouldn''t rule out another rate hike "if inflationary winds gain the upper hand."

Before the session began, St. Louis Fed President William Poole said that "the inflation rate is likely to fall into a reasonable range this year." Poole warned that "if, however, core inflation seems to be settling at a rate above 2%, then such an outcome would be unacceptable to me."

In his speech, Poole also said that the housing market is still not out of the woods, adding that "at a minimum we can say that we do not have evidence as yet that home prices have stabilized."

Among stocks, the debut of Fortress Investment Group (FIG:NYSE) was one of the day''s big events. Fortress priced its initial public offering Thursday evening at $18.50 a share, the top of its expected range.

Fortress finished its first trading session at $31 a share. Its IPO was the most eagerly anticipated deal since the Nymex (NMX:) came to town back in November. That deal doubled at the opening and went on to post a 125% gain in its first day of trading.

Another key issue was the fourth-quarter earnings from MasterCard (MA:NYSE) , which swung to a profit of $40.9 million, or 30 cents a share, compared with a loss of $52.9 million, or 39 cents a share, last year. Revenue jumped 17% to $839.2 million. MasterCard''s results beat the Thomson First Call consensus estimate of 17 cents a share on revenue of $826.9 million.

Additionally, the credit card outfit raised its quarterly dividend to 15 cents a share from 9 cents. After reaching a 52-week high of $118.07, euphoria faded and MasterCard shed $11.14, or 9.7%, to close at $103.60.

Shares of Lear (LEA:) ended lower after the auto-parts maker said it will accept a $5.3 billion offer from billionaire investor Carl Icahn''s American Real Estate Partners (ACP:) . The deal values Lear at $36 a share. Shares slipped 1.7% to $39.39.

Staying in the auto sector, Deutsche Bank upgraded Ford (F:) and General Motors (GM:) . The firm upped each to buy from hold, citing the possibility that negotiations on health care could improve the automakers'' ability to restructure.

Ford gained 18 cents, or 2.1%, to $8.73. GM jumped by $2.21, or 6.5%, to close at $36.01.

Broadcom (BRCM:) was up modestly after posting solid fourth-quarter numbers and setting a $1 billion buyback. Coldwater Creek (CWTR:) and BMC Software (BMC:) were lower on weak earnings news.

In the absence of any economic data, Treasury prices lost ground. The 10-year note was down 13/32 in price and yielding 4.78%, and the 30-year bond was diving 1-2/32, yielding 4.86%.

Turning to commodities, energy prices were mostly higher on worries about production outages in North America. Oil added 18 cents to close at $59.89 a barrel, while gold tacked on $9.50 to $672.30 an ounce.

Stocks rose in Europe, where London''s FTSE 100 was higher by 0.6% to 6383 and Frankfurt''s Xetra DAX was up 0.5% at 6911. In Asia, Tokyo''s Nikkei 225 rose 1.2% to 17,504, and Hong Kong''s Hang Seng was down 0.3% to 20,677.

Dow Trend.......
The DOW remains the most positive index. A dip below the 50 day for whatever reason could be significant. 




Stocks Close Modestly Lower

2/12/2007

The recent sluggishness for U.S. stocks continued Monday, and the major averages started a new week by closing modestly to the downside.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 28.28 points, or 0.22%, to 12,552.55, and the Nasdaq Composite was off 9.44 points, or 0.38%, at 2450.38. The S&P 500 slipped 4.69 points, or 0.33%, to 1433.37.

Last week, the New York market had trouble keeping momentum, and the Dow and the Nasdaq each lost about 0.6%. Friday was especially tough for tech, as the Nasdaq slumped nearly 29 points, or 1.2%, to 2459.82.

One of the key stories of the session was a selloff in energy. Crude oil futures dropped $2.08 to $57.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and natural gas plunged 60 cents to $7.23 per million British thermal units.

The steep drop came after Saudi Arabia's oil minister indicated OPEC probably wouldn't try to implement new production cuts when its member nations meet again in March.

Prominent players like Exxon Mobil (XOM:NYSE) , ConocoPhillips (COP:NYSE) , Halliburton (HAL:NYSE) and Schlumberger (SLB:NYSE) all dropped.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Oil Services Sector index lost 1.4%, and the Amex Oil Index declined 1.3%.

As is not uncommon after a weekend, several companies were making M&A news. Among the deals, India's Hindalco will buy Novelis (NVL:) in a deal worth about $6 billion, and Tenaris (TS:) will acquire Hydril (HYDL:) for $2.16 billion.

Meanwhile, two other potential unions appear to be finished. Nasdaq Stock Exchange's (NDAQ:) $5.3 billion bid for the London Stock Exchange has failed, and rumored talks between Sanofi-Aventis (SNY:) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY:) have come to an end, according to a published report.

Dow component Home Depot (HD:) added 1.1% to $41.44 after the seller of home-improvement goods said it might consider a sale or spinoff of its supply unit. The division has roughly $12 billion in annual sales.

Turning to the day's research calls, Keefe Bruyette upgraded MasterCard (MA:NYSE) to market-perform from underperform, and Southwest Air (LUV:NYSE) was upgraded by Bear Stearns to outperform from peer-perform.

Elsewhere, Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq) was upgraded to buy from hold at Citigroup, Credit Suisse raised its price target on Nike (NKE:NYSE) by $15 to $125, and Banc of America moved GM (GM:NYSE) to its list of least favorite stocks.

Roughly 2.4 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, and on the Nasdaq, about 1.9 billion shares traded. Losers beat winners 3 to 2.

Treasury prices were on the decline. The 10-year note was down 5/32 to yield 4.80%, and the 30-year bond was falling 10/32 in price, yielding 4.89%. The dollar was weaker against the euro and the pound but up vs. the yen.

April-dated gold contracts eased $5 to close at $667.30 an ounce.

Overseas, major equity measures were lower in Europe. London's FTSE 100 was down 0.5% to 6354, and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX was off 0.8% at 6859. In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.4% to 20,593. Tokyo's market was closed.

U.S. markets are technically stronger than they appear.
Despite pullback, the primary uptrend's intact.

Over the past several sessions, each major U.S. benchmark has pulled in from recent highs.
In fact, both the S&P 500 and the Dow industrials have pulled back from multi-year highs, and now hold within view of important support.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has dropped to test its 50-day moving average, closing Monday just three points above that level.
Yet despite recent sluggishness, the U.S. markets' path of least resistance, technically speaking, remains higher.


The S&P violated support on Friday for the first time in a week.
And after breaking below support, it's moved straight to a test of the December high, bottoming two straight sessions within a point of that level.
Yet despite its recent pullback, the S&P is still holding the middle of its three-week range.

In a similar move, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has violated its former breakout point of 12,623.
After breaking lower, it's established support around 12,540, bottoming two straight sessions within five points of that level.
Like the S&P, the Dow now holds the middle of its three-week range.

Not surprisingly, the Nasdaq has also pulled in along with the other benchmarks.
And with its recent pullback, the index has moved straight to a test of its 50-day moving average, which currently holds at 2,447.
The Nasdaq closed Monday just three points above that level, at 2,450.

Widening the view to six months adds perspective to the Nasdaq's recent price activity.
While the Nasdaq is still struggling to clear resistance around the December high, its full six-month view remains bullish.
The index staged a steep rally from the July low, and the subsequent three-month consolidation phase has been orderly, allowing the index to digest its gains.
Again, from Monday's close of 2,450, the Nasdaq's 50-day moving average holds at 2,447 and the late-January low rests at 2,418.

Meanwhile, the Dow industrials have pulled in modestly from all-time highs.
From Monday's close of 12,552, the Dow's 50-day moving average holds at 12,454, and is followed by the late-January low of 12,431.
A close under the late-January low would mark a "lower low" raising the prospect of more pronounced consolidation.

And the S&P 500 has also pulled in recently, closely observing the December high as support.
For two straight sessions, the S&P has bottomed within a point of the 1,432 December high, and the index closed Monday just a point higher, at 1,433.
On further weakness, the S&P's 50-day moving average holds at 1,424, while the late-January low rests at 1,417.


The bigger picture:
With the recent market pullback, each major U.S. benchmark has two nearby support points worth tracking.

The first area of interest holds at the 50-day moving averages.

> The S&P 500's 50-day rests at 1,424, or nine points under Monday's close.
> The Dow's 50-day holds at 12,454, or 98 points under Monday's close.
> The Nasdaq's 50-day rests at 2,447, or three points under Monday's close.

Since the current uptrend took hold in mid-August, neither the Dow nor the S&P have closed under their respective 50-days.
And over that same span, the Nasdaq hasn't closed more than six points under its 50-day.

The second support point is a more important area at the late-January lows. Specifically:

> The S&P 500's late January low holds at 1,417.
> The Dow's late January low holds at 12,431.
> The Nasdaq's late January low holds at 2,418.

Looking ahead, a decisive break below those levels would mark a "lower low" placing the current uptrend in question.
Yet with those levels designated, the U.S. markets' path of least resistance remains higher. Each index holds within striking distance of multi-year highs, and the recent breaks to the upside remain more impressive than the corresponding downside weakness.

Deal Talk Energizes Stocks.......

2/13/2007

Stocks were smartly higher Tuesday as talk of a takeover for a U.S. industrial stalwart and fairly solid earnings reports brought in buyers.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 102.30 points, or 0.81%, to 12,654.85, with 28 of the Dow's 30 components finishing with gains. The Nasdaq Composite gained 9.50 points, or 0.39%, to 2459.88, and the S&P 500 added 10.89 points, or 0.76%, to 1444.26.

"Investors welcomed today's corporate news while ignoring economic data and oil prices," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Avalon Partners. "Today's move indicates that favorable news will continue to bring money in from the sidelines. Any positive news extends the bullish sentiment."

Leading the way higher was a report from overseas that two Australian companies, Rio Tinto (RTP:NYSE) and BHP Billiton (BHP:NYSE) , could be working on separate $40 billion offers to acquire Dow component Alcoa (AA:NYSE) .

Shares of the Pennsylvania-based aluminum giant added 6.4% to close at $35.

The Dow also got a boost from gains in components General Motors (GM:NYSE) and 3M (MMM:NYSE) .

GM finished with a gain of 2.5% to $36.59 after Merrill Lynch upgraded the automaker to buy from sell, assigning a stock price target of $50. The firm also downgraded Ford (F:NYSE) to sell from neutral, based on valuation. Ford shed 2.3% at $8.45.

Meanwhile, 3M shares were climbing after the conglomerate announced a $7 billion buyback plan. Shares rose $1.84, or 2.5%, to $76.43.

"Today looks better than it really may be, due to a few Dow components accounting for a lot of the return," said Barry Hyman, equity market strategist with EKN Financial. "A lot depends going forward as to how we perceive the interest rate policy. The perception of interest rate cuts has diminished greatly."

Roughly 2.68 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Advancers beat decliners by an 8-to-3 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached nearly 1.88 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 3 to 2.

Among earnings, Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE:NYSE) posted a fourth-quarter loss of $1.71 billion, or $3.59 a share, swelling from a loss of $57 million, or 12 cents a share, a year earlier. Excluding items, the company earned 20 cents a share, topping estimates.

The Coke bottler also said it plans to cut 3,500 jobs, roughly 5% of its workforce. Shares finished up 42 cents, or 2.1%, to $20.95.

Homebuilder KB Home (KBH:NYSE) swung to a fourth-quarter loss of $49.6 million, or 64 cents a share, from a year-earlier profit of $304.4 million, or $3.44 a share, due to higher cancellation rates and big charges related to land impairments. The Thomson First Call estimate was for a loss of $1.14 a share. KB Home added $1.49, or 2.9%, to $53.43.

Elsewhere, shares of Applebee's (APPB:Nasdaq) surged after the restaurant operator said it will explore strategic options, including a possible sale or recapitalization of the company. Applebee's jumped $2.09, or 8.6%, to $26.32.

Away from equities, the Commerce Department said the U.S. trade deficit widened to $61.2 billion in December from $58.1 billion in November. Economists expected the trade deficit would widen to $59.5 billion.

Treasury prices were lower. The 10-year note was off 3/32, yielding 4.82%, and the 30-year bond was down 7/32 to yield 4.90%.

Crude futures reversed a steep decline from the previous session as the northeastern U.S. dealt with a flurry of winter weather. The near-month contract finished up $1.25 at $59.06 a barrel. Natural gas tacked on 13 cents to $7.36.

Prices for precious metals firmed. Gold finished the session with a gain of $1.20 to $668.50 an ounce, and silver added 20 cents to $13.91 an ounce.

Overseas, European shares rebounded. London's FTSE 100 was up 0.2% to 6366, and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX added 0.3% to 6878. Tokyo's Nikkei gained 0.7% to 17,621, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng slid 2.2% to 20,132.

Looking ahead, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak Wednesday about the U.S. economy before a Senate panel. His testimony will conclude with a speech Thursday before a House of Representatives committee.

Earnings reports are expected Wednesday from Coca-Cola (KO:NYSE) , Office Depot (ODP:NYSE) and Genzyme (GENZ:Nasdaq) , among others.

New High for Dow.......

2/14/2007


Positive remarks from the Federal Reserve chairman lifted stocks Wednesday, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached yet another record high.

The Dow advanced 87.01 points, or 0.69%, to 12,741.86, its best-ever close. The S&P 500 added 11.04 points, or 0.76%, at 1455.30, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 28.50 points, or 1.16%, to 2488.38.

Of the Dow's 30 components, 25 finished the day in positive territory, led by gains of 2.2% in Caterpillar (CAT:) and Honeywell (HON:) .

Roughly 2.72 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Advancers beat decliners by a 2-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached nearly 2.22 billion shares, with winners outpacing losers 3 to 2.

During his address to the Senate Banking Committee, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank is comfortable with interest rates and that some tentative signs of stabilization have recently appeared in the housing market.

"Inflation pressures appear to have abated somewhat," Bernanke said in his prepared testimony, before adding that the "monthly data are noisy, however, and it will consequently be some time before we can be confident that underlying inflation is moderating as anticipated."

Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist with Spencer Clarke LLC, said that Bernanke's speech is exactly what the markets were looking for.

"His outlook includes solid growth in 2007 along with diminishing inflation concerns," said Sheldon. "He did highlight that housing will be a drag for some time, but that sector is starting to stabilize. It's what the markets wanted to hear."

Treasury prices also got a boost from Bernanke. The 10-year note rose 20/32 in price, yielding 4.73%, and the 30-year bond was higher by 1-3/32 and yielding 4.83%. That action suggests the bond market is seeing less of a chance for rate hikes anytime soon.

Bernanke will continue his congressional testimony on Thursday when he addresses the House of Representatives.

U.S. equities continued their run from Tuesday, when talk of a takeover for Alcoa (AA:) and an upgrade of GM (GM:) helped spur buying. The Dow posted a triple-digit gain to 12,654.85, and the Nasdaq gained 9.50 points, or 0.39%, to 2459.88.

Before the new session, the Commerce Department said U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly flat last month, compared with a 0.9% rise in December. Economists expected a 0.3% increase. Excluding autos, January sales rose 0.3%, also less than anticipated.

On the corporate side, automaker DaimlerChrysler (DCX:) announced a restructuring plan that will see it terminate roughly 13,000 jobs in the U.S. Earlier, the company said fourth-quarter earnings fell 40% from a year earlier due to an operating loss out of its Chrysler Group. Shares rose $5.33, or 8.3%, to finish at $69.78.

Among earnings, soft-drink giant and Dow member Coca-Cola (KO:) posted fourth-quarter adjusted profits of 52 cents a share on revenue of $5.93 billion. Both numbers topped the analyst consensus, but Coca-Cola was off by 31 cents, or 0.6%, to $47.90.

Farm-equipment maker Deere (DE:) got past Wall Street's first-quarter estimates and said its second quarter and full year should be in line with the current forecasts. Deere shares jumped $9.24, or 9%, to close at $111.91.

Retailer Jones Apparel (JNY:) swung to a fourth-quarter loss of $269.5 million, or $2.51 a share, compared with a year-ago profit of $55.7 million, or 48 cents a share. Excluding items, Jones earned 53 cents a share and beat the Thomson First Call consensus of 46 cents a share. Still, the stock slid 38 cents, or 1.1%, to $33.78.

Crude futures eased following the latest weekly inventory report from the Energy Department. The near-month contract ended down $1.06 at $58 a barrel. Natural gas fell 12 cents to $7.24 per million British thermal units.

Last week, crude inventories decreased by 600,000 barrels. Distillate supplies fell by 3 million barrels, while gasoline stocks slipped by only 2 million barrels.

Metals prices firmed, with gold gaining $3.50 to $672 an ounce and silver higher by 5 cents to close at $13.96 an ounce.

Overseas, London's FTSE 100 was up 0.6% at 6421, and Frankfurt's Xetra DAX was adding 1% to 6961. Tokyo's Nikkei gained 0.7% to 17,752. Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.4% to 20,210.

While the earnings calendar is light Thursday, a plethora of economic data is on deck. Before the market opens, traders will sift through reports on export prices, initial jobless claims, manufacturing data in the New York region, as well as industrial production and capacity utilization.

Following the opening bell Thursday, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's data on manufacturing activity in the area is due.