3SOF

Bought back my AUY at 13.10.

Melf, that is good news.................

Major spike coming I can feel it..............LOL

Asside from my core position, day trading this one for $500 on 10-15 cent moves is pretty routine and is recommended, this one is showing GREAT strength........

Heres to a soon to come Limit up day!       

Quote from: Holygrale on January 30, 2007, 11:55:23 PM
Melf, that is good news.................

Major spike coming I can feel it..............LOL

Holygrale,

"From your lips...to the market gawd's ears!" 

The chart and the technicals both support a move higher here.  If we get any more selloff, I'd like to see the top of the channel continue to be support on a closing basis.  It comes in today at about 12.92.

Nice, real nice............almost the 10 million shares I was looking for, only you have to love how she's back filling on the dips with heavy bids ...........

Any pilots out there that can help us clear the runway...........LOL       

Not sure what most are making out of POG and the serious strength AUY is showing, but that LIMIT-UP spike is coming on 12 million shares instead of the 10  I originally was looking for...............LOL

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 30, 2007, 09:39:54 AM
Bought back my AUY at 13.10.

Sold 20% of my AUY at 13.81, at the top of the channel.  Gain: 5.4%

Holding 80% of the position long.

Melf,

I sold my 2000 shares of AUY at 13.75 when you had mentioned that it hit some resistance. I am glad that I did because it did go lower after that sell.

However, I really like AUY since it will earn about $1.00 next year x about 25 pe would give us an approx share price of $25.00 (if the price of gold holds steady).

To me it looks like the price of gold broke out of an ascending triangle recently that may measure to $800 (meaning higher prices for AUY). I don't know how to display the POG chart and I'm not very good at interpreting them... but this was my guess.

I noticed that you held on to 80% of your AUY shares.  Is there a reason that you are still invested?  Do you have any ideas on the price of AUY/POG?

I really appreciate your opinions and look forward to your ideas on this.

In looking at the POG chart it looks like it was not an "ascending triangle" but a "symmetrical triangle" (I had to look the chart analysis up since I am not too keen with this...) that started in May 2006 and then the breakout occurred recently when the price went above $640. The top support line also seems to be supported by the 20ma @ $636 and 40ma @ $632. I think this would hopefully substantiate a higher price for AUY also in the future?

I would like to buy back into AUY  if there seems some support and room for it to grow....

Quote from: brandyjoco on February 03, 2007, 05:14:34 PM
Melf,

I sold my 2000 shares of AUY at 13.75 when you had mentioned that it hit some resistance. I am glad that I did because it did go lower after that sell.

Brandyjoco,

AUY broke out of the recent channel (in green) at 13.02, on January 24.  That automatically put the December 5 high at the top of the channel, 13.81, IN PLAY.

Quote
I noticed that you held on to 80% of your AUY shares

Right.

I like to take at least some profits when targets get MADE so that I can lock in a winning trade, and in this particular case, so that I also can defend against the possibility of a Double Top at/near the prior 13.81 high.

We got a little Doji Star on Thursday, with follow-thru to the downside on Friday, so we might be coming back down toward the top of the Bull Flag/Channel, which comes in on Monday, February 5, at 12.8463.

Interestingly, the intraday lows since the January 24 breakout were 12.82 and 12.84, so we might see that again.

Quote
Is there a reason that you are still invested? 

Yes. 

On November 9, AUY broke out of a"W"-Bottom (I drew a "mini-picture" of that in the chart, above the month of August), within which was nested TWO Bullish Inverse H&S Shoulder patterns (the first one in green...the second one in blue).

NOTE: On that second one in blue...Cramer is no fan of technical analysis, but the timing of his October 27 call to switch out of GG into AUY was outstanding.   That was the 9.40 low of the SECOND Right Shoulder of a DOUBLE Bullish Inverse H&S pattern!

From that 9.40 October 27 low to the December 5 high, AUY rallied 46.91%.

Give the devil his due, eh?!   

Back to the "W"-Bottom...

Not only do patterns that contain "nested patterns" tend to be more powerful on a breakout, in addition, "The bigger the base...the better the breakout."  This base was of 6 months duration, May to November.

After the breakout November 9, AUY came back a bit below the breakout, in a Bull Flag formation, then that also broke out, giving us quite a few upside targets IN PLAY.

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 01, 2006, 11:14:00 AM
Target #1 - 11.32 - October 24 "Nested" H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 6
Target #2 - 11.90 - November 22 Bull Flag Breakout (Top of Flag) - MADE Nov 27
Target #3 - 12.06 - November 1 Larger H&S Breakout - MADE Nov 29
Target #4 - 12.70 - November 22 Bull Flag "Measured Move" - MADE Nov 30
Target #5 - 13.01 - July 31 H&S Breakout "Lost Target" MADE Dec 1
Target #6 - 14.94 - November 8 "W"-Bottom Breakout- Still IN PLAY

Notice how rapidly the first five targets got MADE.   Similar to XING on January 16, by the way, which also had a very powerful DOUBLE breakout, and which also MADE three upside targets very quickly after the breakout.

Those "blockbuster pattern breakouts" often are very, very nice.

In AUY, Target # 6, 14.94, has been IN PLAY since November 9.  (Well, no, it went ON HOLD during the little Bull Flag below the breakout, then back IN PLAY).

That's the BIG 6-month pattern upside target from the measurement above the 11.38 pivot of the "W"-Bottom, and it remains IN PLAY as long as AUY trades above 11.38. 

Since that pattern is of 6 months duration, those targets tend to take a little longer to get MADE.   If we're going to see 14.94, I would expect it to be by March 1 ... no later than May 6.

On January 5, AUY dipped below 11.38, to 11.32, for about a nanosecond, which turned out to be a great buy.  It was a successful re-test of the "W"-Bottom breakout.

I was apprehensive about buying back the shares that I had sold, and ended up selling the remainder of my postion into strength, at 12.16, primarily because I didn't like the behavior in GG or in NEM, two of the big players in the sector, which gets us to...

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Do you have any ideas on the price of AUY/POG?

No idea at all.  I

don't chart the POG because I don't know the symbol (duh-h) to download it from Reuters for my Metastock, but primarily because I've learned over the years that often, there is a "disconnect" between the stock and the underlying commodity, or the stock and the fundamentals of its sector.

No better examples, recently, that Southern Peru Copper (PCU), and Pulte Homes (PHM).

The price of copper has been tanking, but PCU found support at the top of a Rectangle, at 49.16, on January 4, and has rallied to 64.45!  I don't see any way in the world that anyone would play the long side of PCU if they were keying off a copper chart.

See what I mean?

Same with PHM. 

Everything that we hear about the housing market is lousy.  PHM recently cut its quarter from a profit of $0.30 to $0.70,  to a loss, then came in with miserable numbers and was down in after hours trading.  When the market opened, PHM rallied, and a bullish pattern target got MADE on Thursday!

Go figger, huh?!   

But, technically, both charts have looked bullish (see the PCU folder on The Previous Picks Board, and the PHM folder of this board for the charts, if interested).

Next, I'll post you charts of GG and NEM in their respective folders, in case you're interested.  GG, in particular, is bugging me.  It finished off an Abandoned Baby on Friday, which almost had me abandon the remainder of my AUY trade, which I'm still considering.

 

   

Melf,

I know that PCU and PHM are going up when they should be logically going down.  Which is always strange to me...

I've purchased AUY in the past and usually it goes up and down with the price of gold. 

1)Gold prices can be tracked by the minute by going to the following internet site:   http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=d12
2)The technical patterns of Gold prices can be measured by using the code $GOLD in stockcharts.com

When I am using real time streamer I usually look at AUY and GLD (the Gold ETF fund).  If GLD goes down (it almost always goes down at 12 noon est guaranteed) then AUY usually goes down with it.  I notice if the price of gold goes up 2% then AUY goes up 5% and also when they go down.

Recently the price of gold  (the symbol $GOLD on  stockcharts.com which only shows the previous day's activities) broke over $640 which went above the symetrical triangle (pattern began in MAY 2006 and gold prices broke above the triangle in FEB 2007) and measures to over $800.  However, on Friday the dollar went higher (and it is supposed open higher on Monday which will put further pressure on gold and the gold stocks). There is a small commentary on the price of the dollar on the INO website that I previously stated above.

Until the price of gold goes below $640 (the top of the symmetrical triangle) or goes below $636 (20ma) or 632 (40ma) I think the direction is unsure. Until then I think it is still bullish because it is above its supports of $640,$636,$632...which is why I am interested in buying back AUY.  However, I will be patient and wait to see the trend.

Good luck deciding what to do with your AUY shares on Monday.

I hope I may have been some help though I don't do very well in the stock market in spite of the books I have read- that is why I appreciate your posts!!!

Quote from: brandyjoco on February 04, 2007, 04:13:17 PM
When I am using real time streamer I usually look at AUY and GLD (the Gold ETF fund).  If GLD goes down (it almost always goes down at 12 noon est guaranteed) then AUY usually goes down with it.  I notice if the price of gold goes up 2% then AUY goes up 5% and also when they go down.

Brandyjoco,

I studied the GLD yesterday and noticed that it broke out of this Symmetrical Triangle on Thursday morning, put in a nominal new high (a new high "in name only," because it wasn't by much, and it didn't hold up), like AUY did, then sold off Friday, back toward the breakout.

The GLD also put in an Abandoned Baby on Thursday, like GG did, but the GLD is heading back to what "should be" support at the top of the pattern breakout, while GG failed at a broken H&S Top resistance.

The GLD also gaps up and down a lot, so I don't want to make too much of Thursday's Abandoned Baby, but I did observe that gaps up, followed by gaps down in the GLD, "usually" have resulted in further downside.

We'll have to see.  The fact that the GLD still is above a pattern breakout is a plus.

Quote
I hope I may have been some help though I don't do very well in the stock market in spite of the books I have read- that is why I appreciate your posts!!!

I enjoyed reading your post very much. 

Boy, there's a world of difference between analyzing the market, and actually playing it, isn't there?  The latter, by far, is the more difficult, and I'm glad if anything in my posts helps you with that.

Quote
Good luck deciding what to do with your AUY shares on Monday.

Thanks.  Short-term support is a neckline from 13.21 to 13.25 (see intraday chart in the next post), so I've decided to throw it in on a print of 13.24, and take a 1% gain on the remaining 80% of my long position.

That will give me a total gain of 1.9% on this re-entry trade, so combined with the gain of 12.2% on my initial trade, that would put me at 14.1% on the two trades.

If I can get back in near the top of the Bull Flag (at 12.8463 for today), I will.  If I don't get the chance, that's fine.  I'll continue to watch it.

While I very much like AUY, I've got too many doubts about the sector, in general, so I'm going to go with, "When in doubt...get out" if I see 13.24 get printed in AUY.

Good luck, and thanks for your input! 

Next post, the 10-Minute intraday chart, with "possible" H&S Top.

A breakdown of this H&S Top would put roughly 12.54 IN PLAY.  That's below the top of the Bull Flag in the daily chart (see last post), but the 50DMA comes in today right about at 12.54, so if we go down and tag that, or something close to it, in the next few days, then bounce back above the Bull Flag, that could be alright.

Nice work everyone on your posts/charts..............applaud.

Not sure on the action both on Friday and Today in both AUY/ POG, so I jumped out around 13.50- 13.53 today.

Sidelines appears to be the place for now, of course thats only if she continues her nap............

Always ready to pull the trigger................

AUY is indicated higher at the open, currently BID 13.75...ASK 13.76 on news that it's on track to begin commercial production at its Chapada mine.

Hopefully, that won't be a "Gap To Crap," and we'll soon see AUY take out last Thursday's 13.94 high, and move to the 14.94 target IN PLAY.

My stop remains the same: 13.24.

Back in at $13.55...........

I'm thinking POG will hold $650 this time, it's coiling pretty tight...........

Sold remaining 80% AUY at 13.24.  Gain: 1%. 

Gain on the re-entry: 1.9%.  Gain on the two trades: 14.1%