3SOF

Just wanted to make a comment about GOAM. I've traded this stock many times and know its routine, but today is the first time I've seen it act pretty strange.   It seems as if it is being controlled to fill a larger order.  Just wanted to hear other opinions on it.  It needs to break 9.39 and I hope it does very soon!

Quote from: tokyopua on January 31, 2007, 11:23:10 AM
RMIX concrete play, on fire and breakout

Hi tokyo, yes, RMIX, nice bullish breakout today after building a 6 month base. Still below the 200 days moving average, so technically it might need more consolidation (I'm finding that is is hard to enter right in the beginning of trends, easier to play the middle of them).

Let's see what we have on the fundamental front:

- $268 M market cap, operating in the cement industry;
- Balance sheet so so, with $301 M in long term debt, but no short term liquidity problems;
- Guidance for 2007 is:

«Based on the current state of its business and backlog, the Company expects 2007 revenues to be in the range of $900 million and $950 million and earnings per diluted share to range between $0.54 and $0.60.»

The stock is trading at $7.93, so the forward earnings multiple is about 14. The industry trailing average earnings multiple is 15.

So I would say RMIX is more or less valued at average. But I like the sector.

Thanks

Hi David - Just wanted to say that this portfolio has been a great experience so far, and regardless of the outcome, I'll have learned a great deal from you.  It's becoming very obvious how important good fundamentals are at supporting these short term moves - in addition to the technical outllook.  Just watching EVCC yesterday emphasizes this point.

QuoteHi David - TGX posted a profit for 4Q today - 52 week high.  Balance sheet looks good with my quick glance...

In the past, I may have jumped on that stock blindly, but after looking at it's financials for just a couple minutes, I was able to make a decision and feel much more comfortable about the purchase (I was able to pick it up at around 4.18) - I probably should've waited for your look, but it just looked too good to pass up at the time.

Thanks again - Derek

Quote from: Aim4theFence on January 31, 2007, 11:29:55 AM
My bad, David.  I really need to read before I send the post.  Bad fingers.  It was not NXI (sorry I wasted your time).  It was NXG mining.  Low in Feb of last year around $1.92 and up to $4.82 in May of last year.  Made a nice move lately and hanging around $3.75-$3.79 right now. 

Aim

Technically NXG has been stuck in a trading range. It needs to breakout above the $3.94 - $4 resistance level to be considered technically bullish.

As for the fundamentals:

- Market cap is $808 M. Canadian copper & gold producer;
- Balance sheet is healthy, with $126 M in cash and $0 long term debt;
- Revenue trends are nice, despite the Q3 revenue and profit decline from Q2;
- Trailing earnings multiple is about 6, the industry average is 31, so it looks very cheap.

I wonder what's wrong with it ... I used to own a similar situation, which is TGB, and that company was kind of trying to deceive investors and reported a very weak quarter lately.

Let me open those SEC filings for NXG ... looking for convertible debentures or something like that ... ok, where are they? The company doesn't file forms 10 with the SEC, hence the under valuation. The same thing happens with IMOS.

I don't know what to think of this, but I've been seeing that the market really doesn't like when companies don't file those 10-K and 10-Q forms. I guess institutional investors refuse to buy shares of companies that don't respect those US rules.

I'll think it over and talk to Michael about this, will get back to NXG later.

Thanks

QuoteHi David - Just wanted to say that this portfolio has been a great experience so far, and regardless of the outcome, I'll have learned a great deal from you.  It's becoming very obvious how important good fundamentals are at supporting these short term moves - in addition to the technical outllook.  Just watching EVCC yesterday emphasizes this point.

Yes, I've been learning a lot too these past few days.

QuoteIn the past, I may have jumped on that stock blindly, but after looking at it's financials for just a couple minutes, I was able to make a decision and feel much more comfortable about the purchase (I was able to pick it up at around 4.18) - I probably should've waited for your look, but it just looked too good to pass up at the time.

Thanks again - Derek

Nah, you shouldn't wait, I may not be here tomorrow (I plan to be for a very long time, but nobody knows the future), and you want to be a good investor regardless of my support. So my advice is for you to learn as much as you can from mine and others experiences ... well, you know, I'm learning too, I feel like I know much more than I used to know, but also feel like I know little compared to what I need to know to be the investor that I want to be.

So, let's keep on learning from each other, we got to beat this game !

Dave, check the price for TRMM in the 3SOF closed trades.  Is it wrong?

SYNX looks interesting to me David,could you have a look at it ? Thanks

Quote from: ket1390 on January 31, 2007, 11:45:14 AM
soen.ob
breakout from bottom with good volume!

Pushing a bit above the 50 days SMA, but the medium term trend, given by the descending trendline on the semi-log scale chart below, is still bearish. A breakout happens when a resistance is broken on the upside, not when there's a small bounce from the lows, but I get your point.

Technically I still consider SOEN.OB as negative. Let's see what fundamental analysis says:

- Market cap of $58 M. "Solar EnerTech is a photovoltaic (PV) solar energy cell manufacturing enterprise based in Shanghai"
- No balance sheet problems, at least for now;
- $0 revenues since inception. Today there are news out of a deal grating $9.2 M in revenues for fiscal 2007. Still, forward revenue multiple is 6.3;
- Not all that much losses, just ($332 K) in Q3 2006. That could be considered good, but it can also be a sign that the company is really small, and perhaps $58 M market cap is too much for it.

I find these alternative energy plays hard to value. They're still a long shot and there's a lot of competition. They're like biotechnology plays. I guess 9 out of 10 will fail, but the 1 that gets it will be a big winner.

Not my way to play stocks, I like to go with the probabilities and bet on somewhat "sure" things, or at least things with revenues and profits supporting the valuation, not just ideas or remote possibilities.

Quote from: nica33 on January 31, 2007, 02:50:50 PM
Dave, check the price for TRMM in the 3SOF closed trades.  Is it wrong?

Yes, good eye nica33, both, the buying and the selling prices are wrong.

I bought TRMM at $3.17 and sold for a small loss at $3.11, not buy at $2.17 and sell at $2.11 as it was posted. I was probably in a hurry when I posted that. But fortunately it doesn't change the results, since it is always a 6 cent loss on 1900 shares.

Let me correct that ... voila, it's correct now, thank you

I think I figured out why EVCC.OB was full of air. There is a website that reccomends stocks. This is a pump and dump type of website that has horrible analysis and just out to scam people. This messege group said buy EVCC.OB on the saturday the 27th. As you can see by the chart it ran well then crashed. They also reccomended XIDE the 27th and you can see the run. I think it will crash just like EVCC.OB but maybe not as hard. What do you think about this Dave?

http://www.pennystockanalysis.com/index.html
#2 EVCC.OB
#5 XIDE

Quote from: prodigykid6 on January 31, 2007, 03:05:21 PM
I think I figured out why EVCC.OB was full of air. There is a website that reccomends stocks. This is a pump and dump type of website that has horrible analysis and just out to scam people. This messege group said buy EVCC.OB on the saturday the 27th. As you can see by the chart it ran well then crashed. They also reccomended XIDE the 27th and you can see the run. I think it will crash just like EVCC.OB but maybe not as hard. What do you think about this Dave?

http://www.pennystockanalysis.com/index.html
#2 EVCC.OB
#5 XIDE

Well, EVCC.OB is a two employee company with $0 in revenues. It lives from selling shares to the public, that's their business. 1 year ago they were into mining, because it was cool back then. Now they're at environmental services. They keep changing the business model, but never sold a dollar. Yet, people buying now are paying about $200 M for the company.

XIDE is a $380 M market cap company with 14,000 employees and $2.8 B in revenues over the latest 12 month period.

The fact that the same website covered the two companies doesn't make them equal, not even similar. They're of totally different leagues.

My take on XIDE is it can have a pullback, but nothing like EVCC had or will have. I think you get my point ... anyway, some people here are long XIDE, others like you are short, I don't know who will win the battle, but bulls have stronger hands if you ask me.

I don't know if you still have an ego. Fortunately I don't have one anymore, after taking so much beating from stocks and futures over the years, it is easy for me to know when I'm wrong and not to feel any embarrassment from that.

I lose so naturally as I win. My buying price is not an input in my decision making process. The market doesn't know where I bought or sold, it doesn't even know I exist, so, to be in tune with the market, I also don't care which price I buy or sell in terms of the outcome of that trade.

Thanks for this talk

thanks for the outlook dave, i just thought i would bring that to your attention. i thought i was on to something.   

I would not want to be short XIDE as it passes through 7$

Good Luck with your trade

ENCY

Testing out a buy at $3.36 for a rebound/oversold play.

Well, today I wrote comments on: PACT, GOAM, SUF, HOLX, LEV, JOB, NXI, EFSE, TBYH.OB, ZICA, OMCL, FRPT, EVCC, EFSF.OB, YPNT.OB, XIDE, TGX, ZIXI, RMIX, NXG and SOEN.OB.

I couldn't cover OBCI, JADE (yes, I could buy it on a dip), PTN, DPFD.OB, PLRO, OTD and SYNX. If you're still interested, please request these again tomorrow.

I guess my daily limit is about 20. Not bad.

The 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio is down today, 1.8% as I write. On the 9th day, I couldn't win. Of course I expected this to happen.

Still, I feel it was a great day. Even better than the ones where I won. It is so natural for a man to be happy when he wins and sad when he loses, that, to live a happily normal life with my family, I contradict those feelings. I try to be at emotional equilibrium at all times.

After all, it was just another day of work.

I'll have dinner now, will come to close the board until tomorrow and post final results, thanks a lot for your participation