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Goal: > 12% Return per Third

Started by dwest718, December 13, 2006, 03:03:00 PM

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dwest718

#15
And the week ends poorly.  Don't know if I have a chance to reach my target with the light volume we'll see next week and through New Years.  DIVX got killed and Cramer couldn't help himself again tonight.

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/madmoneywrap/10329530_2.html
However, he believes that DivX is a hot stock worth selling now. With the exception of DivX, Cramer said he likes these stocks for the next six to nine months.

I guess I'll talk about my portfolio first and then in my next post I'll move to analyze some of the stocks I've been watching and put up some info on stocks I'll be watching next week.

DIVX - The last two days have been rough after a fall below the 50dma on news that Cramer no longer "likes" the stock. I didn't cut my losses this morning when I had the chance (above 26.00) so I'm gonna just hold on and not try to trade this swing.  If it shows it can definitely stay above 24.00, I might buy a bit more on any evidence of a bounce but I'm holding tight to my stop at 21.90.  If DIVX falls below 22.00 again, we could be back to 20 or even 17.  I don't think it'll fall below 22 and after today I don't know if it'll even fall to 24.00.  All of this because of:
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/madmoneywrap/10329081_2.html
27 shares @ 24.96 (-9%)
Holding with stop @ 21.90

SWIR - Very nice little run this week from low 12s to high 13s.  SWIR released news of a big win in the wireless sector when they announced Verizon became a partner/customer:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061218/to241.html?.v=44
However, SWIR had a bad close today and for the week with an inverted hammer and drop below the 200dma in the last hour of trading.  Close @ 13.80 is also below the 13.81 resistance level.  These two factors make me a little shaky and I will look to sell if it begins to fall through any supports.  The first key level is 13.30.  If the stock falls through the 13.65-13.68 level I will begin to look at this 13.30 level as a possible area to sell.  My stop now is at 10.80.  I will slide my stop up to 11.85 if there is much negative sentiment early next week.  Then I will begin looking at the 12.70 level as the final support before I drop my shares and look to buy again when it reaches the 11.90 level.  Most likely, I will sell at no lower than 13.25 and buy again on any evidence of a bounce under 12.  Any positive move next week will obviously make me feel much better.  If we can get a close above the 13.90-14.00 level, we could quickly close the gap to 17.00.  It all depends on what happens early next week.  Plan right now is just to hold until evidence for a move either way.  Chart below.
140 shares @ 13.80 (+32%)
Holding (with stop @ 10.80)

TMTA - Negative trend, negative chart; No news for TMTA... just a downward move that can't seem to get any help from below.  If TMTA falls through the 1.07-1.09 level, we're going to have huge problems.  Again my mental stop is between 1.03 and 1.05 if TMTA looks like it's going to fall below 1.07 and press any lower.  Hopefully we won't get to that point next week but recent price action would suggest it's a very likely scenario.  Just have to sit and see how it plays out.   >:(
785 shares @ 1.10 (-16%)
Holding with mental stop @ 1.03

DOVP - After a very, very negative start to the week with a selloff on no news coupled with no buying pressure whatsoever (0.36 to 0.26 in 3 days), DOVP closed the week very nicely with a bit of support created at 0.26 and a little hammer today and a close up to 0.30.  The only problem is the stock price's rapid descent has caused the 50dma to move down very quickly after the double bounce off it last week (0.49, 0.45) and it now sits at 0.38.  Judging by the strong resistance last week, DOVP will not move above the 50dma unless it announces significant news next week.  Just have to sit and see if it can continue its run up.
1400 shares @ 0.30 (-5%)
Holding with mental stop @ 0.21-0.23

NENG - More consolidation to end the week.  This is more of a long term hold now since it is a "3 Lines" play.  I'd like to just sit on it and see how far it will run.  I still have my stop in though because I don't want NENG to end up like EGHT.
320 shares @ 2.68 (+16%)
Holding (with stop @ 2.40)

TRMM - An interesting close to the week.  Basically a Doji star today but very little volume.  Higher low today than yesterday.  Will just have to see how it moves next week.  If down, will have to carefully monitor.  If up, it could run if it breaks back through 2.40.
480 shares @ 1.12 (+0%)
Holding with stop @ 1.65 (possibly up to 1.91 because of Fibonacci retracement level)

This week my stocks were mixed and my ETFs got hammered because of the down week for the market so my account dropped.

Total Value to Close the Week: 11138.39

dwest718

#16
Just to get a watch list set out so I can do more in depth analysis, charting, etc. this weekend... here goes (in no particular order):

DOVP - nice run to close out week; support set up; could run to 50dma with some buying pressure
ZICA - huge run through 3 moving averages on news today; busted descending wedge... should have more room to run

NENG - consolidation after a good run last week; look for run to continue but watch for any give backs
IMM - nice break through 3 moving averages, golden cross, lots of support at 8.35 or so for to run off of
IMMU - 40% run after breaking through 3 moving averages; inverted hammer on high volume Friday might signal a shortterm reversal but keep it on the radar because of the golden cross and breakout

BFLY - looks to be working off a "bottom" and reversing a short downtrend after busting through all 3 moving averages; needs pos. confirmation
NIHK - played as predicted earlier this week after bouncing off 200dma; nice hammer today; look for it to push higher next week if buying pressure comes early
ONT - nice break of 3 moving averages and bounce off several times to establish support; hammer on Friday on good volume could signal a move higher; similar to NIHK
TSTC - volume returned today as it pushed to a new 52wk high after busting through 3 moving averages; slight inverted hammer requires pos. confirmation next week
SWIR - very nice move to push through moving averages this week but closed below 200dma today; needs pos. move and close above 14 and then 17 in play
EXAS - nice break through all 3 moving averages and huge breakout on Friday; once it breaks through the previous high at 3.10, EXAS has room to run
MGIC - building some resistance between 2.35 and 2.45 but could run once it breaks through 2.40 and 2.60; golden cross and rounding bottom could help its case

MDWV - huge volume off of a bottom, MACD turning around, bad close but still nice price movement
BPA - very negative price movement but doji star on top of the 200dma could spell time for some recovery; if it falls through the 200dma watch out
WRLS - may have topped out; very negative price action on Friday; just keep an eye on it
TTP - the chart appears to be breaking down but it did just hit support around 3.00-3.05 a share; MACD looks a bit negative but golden cross just occurred; keep an eye on it if it doesn't totally break down
TRMM - see analysis above from the post about my account

Other Pennies that could be attractive:
PYTO, MICG, STHK, CWLC, SLP

Stock that fell out of favor:
TMTA - negative chart, negative trend, negative, negative... nothing good coming out of this one; if it doesn't bounce off of 1.09 or 1.07, could be headed a lot lower
SDIX - breakout through 3 moving averages but in a short term downtrend with not enough volume to bounce quickly; watch for a rebound in next few weeks though



I really like EXAS, IMM, and ZICA for this coming week ... and of course DOVP, NENG, and SWIR if they continue like I'm hoping they will.  More to come tomorrow...  :)

dwest718

Well ZICA did very well and EXAS had an interesting day... CWLC broke through some resistances and could be an interesting stock to watch.  TSTC also found new highs and BFLY had a nice gap.  Unfortunately I was in the car all day with no access to any resources but a touchtone quote system so while my DIVX plummeted  :'(  I watched ZICA soar like I thought it would and EXAS come back to hammer by the end of the day  >:(

Won't have much computer access until after New Year's but will try to update as much as I can.  This will probably be the extent.  I like ZICA tomorrow for one more day... also like SWIR if it can move up and DOVP had an interesting chart formation today that could help it continue up.  TSTC could keep going as could BFLY and CWLC.  Watch CWLC... could be a very nice penny now htat it has broken through some short to midterm resistances.

Happy trading and Happy New Year's everyone!!  :D :D

dwest718

Well... unfortunate start to the year.

Got stopped out of DIVX at 21.90 but rebought soon on the bounce... wasn't able to get out at mid 24s and didnt feel it was necessary anyway so still holding.

Got stopped out of TMTA at 1.01 and waiting to see what happens.

Looking to buy NENG or MENV tomorrow.  NENG had a great few days with 3 bounces off the 50dma and a solid white candle off of the 50dma today.  MENV broke through the 3 Magic Lines and is about to have form a Golden Cross on very very good volume.  Broke a short term resistance today and if it breaks .08 or so and ends up forming the Golden Cross we could see another 10 bagger if not more.

Will try to update my portfolio and my watchlist this weekend when I have more time.  Started class again so I've had very little time to update on 3SOF.  Happy trading folks!

dwest718

After taking $350 in losses at the beginning of the year, I have recovered.  DOVP and TRMM have huge gains today.

January 1st Balance: 11173.39
Current Balance: 12383.93

Return: +1210.54
Return %:  10.8%

dwest718

School is making it very, very difficult for me to post regularly.  I will post all trades that I make as well as a few symbols I am considering when I have capital available.

Looking to sell TRMM, SWIR, and DOVP with target prices for each.

dwest718

Stopped out of NENG today at 2.25.  DOVP is scaring me a bit but I htink this is just a short term consolidation.  SWIR is acting crazy after announcing great earnings.

Bought 300 CPNE.ob today @ 2.40... let's see where it goes :D

Happy trading everyone.

dwest718

#22
DOVP nice reversal today.  Closed on top of 9/13ema today and bounced off the 61.8 Fib on Wednesday... should get a run back into the low .50s next week.

DIVX had a very nice reversal last week and this week it started to run.  Today bumped up over the 9/13 ema.  Would've been very nice to close above 22.50 today but still a nice day and hopefully will continue to run next week.

SWIR still acting strangely.  Have no idea where it will go next but the strong support between 13.90 and 14.20 should hold.

TRMM fell a bit today and I'm getting a little worried.  2.75-2.80 level will be important... but I think it hit support today and should go up some next week.

CPNE ON FIRE!  Thank you David!  Continuing to hold.  Can't sell until Tuesday anyway since I bought on unsettled funds  ;D

Closed just under $12k to end the week.  Up around 7% since January 1st.

For next week looking at:
SILC
CTCH
ACGI
EGSR
TWTR

and still considering adding more (positive short or long term outlook):
CPNE
DOVP
SWIR

Have a great weekend everyone!