3SOF

Aargh    I'm such a sucker!!  Immediately after I wrote the last reply I had a look and FRPT had made a textbook bull flag and continuation breakout above 17.60.  I just couldn't help my self so bought some at 17.75.  FRPT was acting real strong this afternoon, and I think we should see it trading in the $18 range tomorrow.

"The Government has already ordered the first two vehicles from FD for testing. However, the Cougar is battle tested. The government previously reserved the right not to test proven vehicles. They also stated, "Due to the urgency of the requirement, the Government need not wait for all test vehicles to be delivered and tested before deciding to execute additional delivery orders." This means new production orders could come anytime in the next few weeks or even tomorrow. "

Okay I have figured out the linear production planning problem. The DOD RFP calls for deliveries to begin in September, but the DOD reserved the right to make orders early if the vendor (FRPT) was deemed qualified. Suntrust investment says that can accelerates orders and deliveries by three months or June. And DOD has already contracted for MRAP contract production in February at FRPT.

So the next good news would be bridge gapping contracts for increased production until June-September deliveries.

Stalling because of the Full and Open Competion requirements of government contracting will be casting a shadow on contracts and future contracts until the official Notional RFP estimate of Delivery Orders in May. Part of the shadow being other qualified vendors other than FRPT.

Back to waiting for a contract to come over from DOD to FRPT.

Just trying to speculate on future events and what they would hold for FRPT and the market, I'm no pro but I don't believe the market has came to a decision and reality on how the War in Iraq will end. I believe the chances for a withdraw from Iraq in 2 years from now is very likely, and the end result will be a disaster in Iraq and a financial troubles for us after the fall out.

« Last Edit: February 05, 2007, 07:46:05 PM by nullzero » 


What is see is two years of the Bush presidency and congress still in line to see IRAQ through for the rest of his term. Then in 2009 the budget and the next President in charge will inherit Iraq with basically.........I do not want to speculate the next president in 2009.

Quote from: nullzero on February 06, 2007, 03:57:53 PM
Nice rebound today, sorry about your loss on FRPT Melf. FRPT is looking good maybe near the end of the week for a short if it rebounds into the 18s and stalls at resistance.

Thanks, Nullz.  Just a tad frustrating, the way that played out.

My target zone was the 19.56 - 20.00 on the chart, and given yesterday's constructively bullish action, it looks like that has a decent chance:

1. The open was just about smack on the top of the Bullish Falling Wedge.

2. It went down to a low of 16.56, which was just two cents below the 50DMA, at 16.5798, then it got a nice bang off there, stablilized for most of the day near 17.00, then came on strong into the close.

3. The open of 16.90 only was four cents higher than Monday's close, so that's "close enough" for the candle to qualify as a Bullish Engulfer.  On the heels of Friday's nice Bullish Hammer and everything else that we all discussed at the weekend,  yesterday's candle looks nice.

Good luck everyone!

Underberg quotation:
Outlook and Valuation
For 2007 we assume the company delivers 478 Cougars and 88 Buffalos. Given current capacity of 40 Cougars per month the former is likely (assuming demand holds) particularly given the company's intent to at least double capacity at its facility by mid-year. Buffalo production is currently 5 per month, but should double with an additional shift and we believe the entire production line will be revamped to increase production well beyond 10 per month.
By contract we assume 186 Cougars for ILAV, 108 Mastiff, 160 JERRV and 24 GSTAMIDS. All but 64 of these are under contract already. For the Buffalo we assume 18 from the Army related to the Q2 06 order, 46 from the Marine letter contract of November last and 24 from GSTAMIDS.
Only GSTAMIDS has yet to be awarded. We save MRAP for 2008.
For 2008 we assume revenue of $854 million, $93 million from service/spares and the remaining $761 million from vehicle sales. A little over $600 million of this related to MRAP, and $519 million of that related to Category I and II. For both categories we have assumed the current Force receives half of the revenue, as the terms of the JV dictate, but the JV wins a sole source
engagement. While this could be aggressive, we have pushed the MRAP award out by six months, offsetting that aggressiveness. In addition, we have nothing in our numbers for Cheetah, nor for potential wins with the UN, the UK or other NATO allies. Cougar capacity is not taxed until Q4, but by then we believe the company will have greater capacity from either another shift and/or another
facility. Margins will be the big question. We have operating margin of 7.5% in 2007 increasing to 12% in 2008. There could be great variability in this depending on the amount of outsourcing Force is required to undertake.
The shares are trading at a significant premium to its peer group as well as a premium to the recent multiples at which it has been trading. However, the volume of business is massive and the numbers keep rising. Given that, we believe the premium is justified, particularly looking to 2008, when the
company's revenues could approach $1 billion.

more info please check & download attachment 

cheers
O.

thanks for that La-Onda, very interesting read.

On a side note, where do you get all these reports?

Thanks for the report la-onda.

I did not calculate the 390 Cougar backlog of contracts. At current production of 60 per month it seems FRPT will be busy for a while. Making the gap until the MRAP announcement look more possible to manage.

Nice going it looks like the bulls in FRPT are on a roll  .

  I've been watching FRPT ever since FOUSC sold it in his portfolio. It looks good technically, IMHO. Can any of you gurus including David, comment on the soundness of its fundamentals? Thank you all!

sold my position at 19.40, decided to keep this one short term and there is significant upside resistance around 19.75 (where I would have planned to sell).

May be a good time to enter a short showing strong selling after the high of 19.58.

Quote from: Melf Elf on February 07, 2007, 12:37:05 AM
My target zone was the 19.56 - 20.00 on the chart, and given yesterday's constructively bullish action, it looks like that has a decent chance:

The low end of my target zone MADE at 19.58.

Quote from: ScottishTrader on February 07, 2007, 02:08:49 PM
sold my position at 19.40, decided to keep this one short term and there is significant upside resistance around 19.75 (where I would have planned to sell)

Nice going, Scotsman!

I believe you hit the entry point and exit point. This stock though volatile still follows the predictions. I notice the fibs more often because I was an engineer but the other indicators are there just which one to believe and when.

Still doing my stock education before I try to be a bear, though I have seen them make lots of profits.

Like I did not doubt a dip below 16, I now do not doubt a test of the 52 week high of 24 when the quarterly report results. My first opinion is it will gap upward on report release day. But how far?

Here are two negative reports and the latest from FRPTs management consulting firm Catalyst.